Bitcoin Forum

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Yes many people now treating Bitcoins as long term investments only. Another reason for which we aren’t seeing more trades because they know that in 2024 Bitcoins will touch new All time high price. Hence for now they are just storing the coins in the wallet and not touching it. We might see ups and downs in the price of the coin during the last of November and December, as people are will try to accumulate more Bitcoins at that time for the bull run.

If you want my stance on this, it's that the market is getting cooled down after what happened in 2022, the move from $60k to $16k was the final move of the leg down and anyone who thinks prices can go further down from here is a complete fool, I repeat complete fool. Prices will never be at these prices again in future and one should simple start investing with DCA Strategy. We might see a huge weekly green dildo soon.

I guess seeing the dynamics with 'plus' and 'minus' signs would also be interesting. But even like this, it's a useful table that illustrates that we've had a fairly calm year. Unfortunately for those who hope that Bitcoin will become less volatile over time, though, it doesn't look like a consistent trend yes, as 2020 and 2021 were more volatile than 2016, for instance. Moreover, while volatility is the lowest over the last decade, I wouldn't call these numbers "extremely quiet", as even 30-40% change of average value in one month is actually a lot.

Looks like there are fewer people who are dumping their BTC nowadays and more of them just waiting for Bitcoin halvings next year. surely there will be more people buying bitcoins in the next few months because we are once again heading to another halving season which is undoubtedly after that a bull run will happen based on its past history. I think this is the result of the honest reviews by most of its investors because they are promoting it honestly without cherry-picking and also giving the people honest advice in case they want to start investing in bitcoins.

 Yeah, it's a good thing to believe that Bitcoin is now less volatile as this will increase investor confidence and also,  they'd begin seeing it as a legitimate asset class because prior to now, fluctuations typically deter them from including it in their portfolio. However, a sustained period of low volatility could prove challenging for Bitcoin as the probability of a significant movement will be less likely.

As an asset matures and the price and market cap increase, volatility decreases. The downside of this is that the positive returns going forward are also reduced. Bitcoin is going to be useful to get rich slow, not to hit the jackpot, as in the first cycles. I've been thinking the same thing since we didn't go over $69K in this cycle, and I don't believe any of the predictions that give outlandish results for the next cycle.

Really? If it's going to lose the whole of its volatility, how can a long-term efficient accumulation be processed, how this market will grow in a cyclical order? How we will feel this excitement while spending time with BTC? I don't give a shit to those investors who are afraid of temporary pumps and dumps. I think more mature investors are gonna step into the market even with its volatility. I think this volatility is the beauty of the market.

Anyway, It's really considerable that Bitcoin is not coming up with big moves but does that matter if Bitcoin hasn't shown up with such patterns for a small interval? Hmm as the market is growing in mature hands it really affecting the volatility.

For the latest as you have a look here on the heat map, I think it would be interesting to see how the market behaves in this scenario. Image Source data analysis of a senior crypto influencer Bit India

I think Bitcoin have gain more popularity to the level that people no longer go into panic selling when any negative news about Bitcoin came up, people mostly sees it as a long time investment, that's why it's displaying less volatility.
Investors have more faith now in Bitcoin because it always fight back in value no matter how the price depreciate.

I believe that people are keeping their bitcoin in their noncustodial wallet waiting for the halving and this has made so many investors to move their coins from exchanges, so that they can be in full control of their investment as they are preparing for the halving. Also, the trading volume has drop with 88.39% over the previous years. The volatility is low because as bitcoin keep on gaining recognition the believe and trust in bitcoin increases. Investors has also understood that long term hodling is the best way to invest in bitcoin.

Well, more people realized that. But definitely not all of them. There are still a lot of people who want to enter the crypto world to become rich quickly, fail to do that, and abandon it forever or for a long time.

I would add that this is evidence that there is an increased knowledge about Bitcoin basically, more people have gotten to understand it over the past years as a long-term investment asset class rather than a perceived get-rich-quick scheme coin the majority of people initially thought Bitcoin was.

Secondly, When we have a situation like this, this could suggest or is a strong sign that we may start seeing crazy moves or volatility in the months ahead, and I'm even becoming more bullish about Bitcoin right now as it could be an indication that we are fast approaching the end of the accumulation phase of Bitcoin.

News articles have more or less accepted bitcoin as a stable asset with mainstream acceptance and since taboo topics make more of rounds, once its non-taboo, its normalized, its just what is normal. More big names accepting crypto or news coming out that they are involved in investing in them, the more this stability consolidates.

However dont take this as an indication of the future trend. We still have more than two months before the year ending. Sudden changes in crypto are not uncommon even though the yearly volatility usually remains under 15%.

Overall, bitcoin is a good asset for long term investment, there is not doubt in this statement.

This will also serves as a reminder for those who have been passionate in knowing the track record of bitcoin volatility over the years, there have been both bear and bull season and the market has also been favourable for it investors who can hodl to experience a surge in the market price, people have chosen bitcoin over other cryptocurrencies because it's actions are irrevocable and trusted, when it falls, it rises again, also to others that have been creating unnecessary fear of missing out on bitcoin each time bthe market dips, this is also an explanation on why they can remain with bitcoin because of its long time consistency.

Aside from the volatility, it also shows that we're getting higher all-time lows in every bear market. On the 2017 bull run followed by the 2018 bear market, we've got $3000. And during the 2021 bull run followed by the bear market in 2022, the all-time low by that year was $16000 and that's just close to $15000 which was like 5 times more than the 2018 ATL. Everyone is seeing the need not to sell too early and we're all being serious and learned from the past years that these cycles happening on Bitcoin are real and backing it up with accurate data makes more sense. It's a no-brainer that many have learned the effect of halving and what it does to Bitcoin both in its technical and economic aspects.

It is natural for this year because it is seen in terms of holders and news sentiments there is nothing that affects Bitcoin, so the crypto market is so that there is no massive disposal of bitcoin to the market because it has happened in 2022, so it can be calculated more stable for the pump movement and dump.

In the cycle also the second and third years is the time when the strengthening of the preparation of Bitcoin Halving and the new ATH, in this side it can be possible the strength of the holder charges the power that affects the level of fluctuations that do not make it extreme.

Many people are looking forward to this moment because soon the halving event will occur so that is why many people hold bitcoin in non-custodial wallets more than exchanges, although there is no definite reason by showing low volatility now preferring HOLD.

For almost a year 2023 the average price is in the range of $20K to $30K and the lowest point is $16K but it doesn't last long, you can say this fluctuation is not that significant but I feel bitcoin is more in the range now.
People accumulate more it is their way to increase their portfolio while prices are still low.

Bitcoin is now seen as an asset rather than merely a money for daily transactions. As the number of bitcoin holders grows, so does the number of bitcoins in those wallets, as individuals regard the currency as more of an asset than just currency for daily needs. As a result, the volatility has not made much of a pump or a dump this year even when hit with some negative news that could dump the market.

This behaviour indicates that bitcoin will make significant gains in the approaching bull season, as no significant drops have occurred. If the market continues to rise in a bullish trend and rises by the percentage it usually does during a bull run, we will see a very high bull to signify a relatively high ATH that may double the current ATH.

In my experience, it seems that Bitcoin is less volatile this year. I have been involved with Bitcoin for a couple of years. The price seems quite stable, and very rarely are we seeing high volatility. It's most probably because holders don't want to sell and there are fewer new buyers as well. That means buyers and sellers are almost the same; when there is a difference, we see a little volatility. But that isn't countable or volatile compared to other years. I will say it's not bad at all; it's more of a natural growth than a pump dump. People should realise holding Bitcoin is worthy now, and it's just not a pump-and-dump game.

Yeah surely there are still a lot of weak hands who only want to get rich quick through buying BTC, you cannot get rid of such people in a free market like the BTC network. But if the weaker hands are fewer in number than people who actually believe in BTC and will hold it for a very long time, then volatility would surely be reduced and we'll get a certain level of stability in the price of BTC.
You may be right, even though i do not have a strong opinion on this yet. I think many of these predictions are 'hanging' on the approval of BTC spot etf's in the U.S., so many believe that if there is an approval, the price would skyrocket. I don't know what is going to happen, neither am i so interested in BTC spot etf's because i believe in not your keys, not your coins, but very soon i think the sec would budge and approve at least one BTC spot etf application, it could very well be that of Blackrock, then we'll see what it does to the price.

The tendency is that Bitcoin's volatility decreases along the years, as more adopters join the market and more coins are splitted among different hands, decreasing the manipulation power whales have to drive prices in large scale upside and down. That is why it's important always the price crashes at once, new investors and minor investors acquire more coins immediately, so whales don't have the opportunity to accumulate every cheap coins on their holdings.

Now from every source of information you can hear that Bitcoin will reach its maximum values ​​in the near future in a year or two. Therefore, those people who have money can safely invest in Bitcoin for a long time and not have headaches every day in trading
People understand very well that Bitcoin will not go below 16k and therefore invest with ease

The way the bitcoin market handled fud for FTX and Binance, it was a signal that the sentiment for bitcoin as a long term holding asset is strong. There was a heavy accumulation of bitcoin despite this bad news and the market quickly recovered after every major correction. I am not sure if it was the retail investor or the institutional investor who ate all of those sales walls. Some exchange like binance and coinbase increased their BTC stack in these major correction. A few days ago, there was news about a bitcoin wallet that holds around the same amount of bitcoin in satoshi's wallet. Later they found that it belongs to coinbase.

Everyone in this industry is hoping for such thing to happen on its market price however those are just assumptions and speculation and no one guarantees for such thing. Not because you have money to invest, it would already give you the idea to just invest into it. Well, having assets is a good thing to acquire but let us emphasize the idea of risk management and to simply put only an amount inside our loss tolerance to avoid frustrations and related actions. Bitcoin has a huge potential especially with price increase but things won’just happen according to our expectations of it. Holding won’t be simple as well ‘coz nothing’s assured and no one knows when will the market price be able to cross its previous ATH.

The volatility of Bitcoin's price this year isn't as high as in past years as the OP mentioned, and I think it will remain this way until the end of the year. I'm not sure if this is a good or bad thing for Bitcoin, but I do like this stability and I'm looking forward to the next bull market in a few years. I believe it will happen somehow after the halving in 2024.

The reason why Bitcoin isn't as volatile this year is probably due to many people engaging in long-term investments and we haven't seen as many transactions recently compared to the past years.

Your observation and insightful analysis of Bitcoin's historical data and in particular its decreasing volatility in past nine months, is a very interesting and positive development, that could contribute to greater Bitcoin adoption and acceptance as method of payment. This reduced volatility is a significant factor that has often hindered its acceptance as widely used payment method.

Moreover, it is worth noting that volatility in Bitcoin is an opportunity for professional traders to generate profit by skillfully mitigating risk associated with trading of this digital asset.

While holding to trade in the bulls and other purposes with regards to holding might account for some percent of the observation, I think another place to look at is the price of Bitcoin. The price has pumped to a surprising high for everyone. I guess most of us never expected bitcoin to create the current ATH and it did.
This scares off a few others from actively investing or trading it as, you don’t want to lose value on every Sat neither do anyone hope to buy too high.
People are gradually placing values and it would be interesting to see how the activities would play out come the next bullrun.

The crypto trader had trade in two different way,one is on the bitcoin.So after buying the bitcoin,the crypto trader will just hold the money in the bitcoin for the future.The money on the other stable coin was used by the gamblers to do the day trading.Many people know the fact,the new all time high in the bitcoin price in 2024.The people who holding the money in the bitcoin for the longer period will get benefit in the upcoming year pumping in the bitcoin price.

Its individual's choice to hold Bitcoin for trading or long-term purpose ultimately hinges on his risk tolerance level and financial circumstances, however, I have observed and experienced that, short terms trades for modest gains is not a prudent idea, when it comes to Bitcoin. Instead, we should look at the bigger picture and hold Bitcoin for long term and wait for the events such as halving that can potentially generate significant profit for those who hold onto their investments over time.

I think it will take more time for Bitcoin to side way and be tightened more before a halving and it has yet come to a time for it to skyrocket. Psychology cycle of market is repeating again and it's not time to sell bitcoin at cheap price. It's only about 7 more months till 2024 halving and it's time to hold bitcoin we have tightly or try to accumulate more.

Bitcoin block reward halving countdown (https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/).

I am sure this is a positive development in the Bitcoin market as we always prefer more calm and smoothness rather than experiencing some roughness and uncertainties but then again those who are looking for Bitcoin to immediately jump into $30K or more can be disappointed with the way the asset is behaving this year. Now, am wondering what 2024 will be bringing since it would be a halving year and there is a big possibility that an ETF can already be approved.

Not necessarily, I don't agree that this generally means that Bitcoin is now increasingly perceived as an asset for long-term holding rather than an asset for speculation or for trading on exchanges. Volatility levels are volatile themselves. They change all the time. That Bitcoin is for long-term holding is also not new. It has been an idea among many for many years already.

There are reasons for this year's low volatility. It could be that many are staying away from exchanges given what happened in the past recent months and years. Many are probably staying low temporarily. Or big institutions are not very active this year considering the regulatory uncertainty right now. Certain economic factors could also be a reason. And many more.

It is good news to see that 2023 is the least volatile year for Bitcoin, but it may not be so for speculators.

In any case, this indicates, in my opinion, one of two possibilities: Either people have begun to believe that Bitcoin is an asset to hold in the long term, or most people are waiting for the halving in 2024 and expect Bitcoin to reach a new peak, so they do not want to sell now.

Personally, I hope the first possibility is correct. People realizing that Bitcoin is an asset to hold for the long term will dampen Bitcoin's volatility and help accelerate global adoption.

Yes it’s pretty typical to what we saw in 2019 and 2014-15 right after huge price gains. Basically whenever we had a bullish year the following year is bearish and later on in the year the volatility is gone.

People basically give up because price is not going up, even down, just trades sideways and people sell out of boredom pretty much and move on to something else. We are seeing that right now pretty much. Volatility is crazy low for crypto right now.

I agree with you, bitcoin has always been perceived as an asset for long-term storage, this has not happened now, but it has always been so. I think on the contrary, many market players realized that it is good to speculate with bitcoin, and froze in anticipation of good positions to buy or sell. Unfortunately, the days have passed when 90 percent of players expected that cryptocurrencies would change the world. Now everyone has realized that this is primarily a means of earning money, especially for whales.

I'm not surprised one bit as this simply shows the uncertainty perception of people regarding Bitcoin is reducing. When people are not sure of something, they are poised to making aggressive decisions but the reverse is the case when you know what you are getting involved in. In other words, people are getting wiser by the day as the knowledge and awareness of Bitcoin continue to increase.

Looking at this from another dimension,  2023 did not record much news that can shake the market so I will not be surprised that the market is calm. Unlike 2024, I expect both the volatility and  trading volume to rise significantly following the halving and possible approval of some of the major Bitcoin ETFs.

I think those kind of people who hope to get rich quickly by hoping and speculating on Bitcoin volatility will not ceased to exist, and it's not only Bitcoin, those kind of people will come and go and then comeback when the Bitcoin shows some movement. I am not saying they are bad, but I just prefer that bitcoin will be more stable with wider adoption as currency, because it's the initial purpose of Bitcoin.

It is about time. The youths in my country are on the side of holding bitcoin long term than spending it. And this is not just happening in my country, it is happening all over the continent. This survey report by Jack Dorsey proves it.¹


This is part of the reasons why there is a drop in its volatility. We the people believe in Bitcoin.

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1 https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoin-optimism-rising-in-developing-world-despite-price-declines-block-survey

Well, there are still 3 months ahead, so it’s too early to draw conclusions. What if we see a big crash later this year? It’s not that this is foreseen and there are prerequisites (and when could anybody even predict this?), the likelihood of this is minimal, but anything can happen.

If you trust the picture at the beginning of the topic, then the past year 2022 was also, in general, not very volatile for the price of bitcoin without any big changes. This is probably also due to the bearish trend in the bitcoin cycle, which essentially implies a long and slow decline in price.

It would be better if bitcoin was used as an asset for permanent use, as intended by the creator, and not as an asset for long-term storage, but in the end, we have what we have. By the way, this absence of fluctuations in the price of a bitcoin doesn't at all exclude speculation for trading on the stock exchange. One bought, the other sold during the day, which essentially does not affect the current value. I want to say that these actions mutually compensate for fluctuations in the cryptomarket.

It is possible because people are less likely got affected by news and unsupported hypes now a day. It looks like the market has developed its resistance to minor news and unfounded hypes/FUD. Unlike in the previous years where traders and investors react in every news about cryptocurrency making the price swing too volatile. Just like in the earlier years, we have seen how price greatly increase or greatly decrease when a news comes out to the public.

Oh, I taught I was the only one who has observed the Bitcoin low volatility movement this year. I think this is not a good time for those who make decent money trading the volatility 24/7, perhaps they have adopted a new approach, better a DCA approach. The population of Bitcoin Holders is now greater than the population of Bitcoin traders.

From my perspective, 2023 has shown a notable decrease in Bitcoin's volatility, signaling positive growth for this asset class. At the start of the year, Bitcoin was close to $23K and at the end of Sept it was at $27K+, which is pretty stable. This trend points toward a maturing and stabilizing Bitcoin market, instilling greater confidence in its long-term potential. Additionally, reduced volatility may pique the interest of institutional investors, further enhancing Bitcoin's adoption and credibility.

Although Bitcoin retains some degree of volatility, the decline in 2023 signifies a promising outlook for its future.

I expect Bitcoin's volatility to decrease over time. It can be a good news to Bitcoin adoption since the establishments are the most concerned about the volatility of Bitcoin. But it may not be good news for novice investors who want to become multi-millionaires. However, even now Bitcoin is not very volatile, but now is the best time to buy because the price of Bitcoin has not continued to fall. Time will come that no one can dump the price of Bitcoin even institutions.

Generally, the volatility of the asset will decrease when the asset value increases in terms of fiat value and it happened with Bitcoin too in my opinion.

Still, 20 or 30% is something unimaginable rate compared to the traditional assets and I guess it will decrease further when the BTC value rises over 100K, 200K, and at 1M point we may see the most stable value.

The major reasons, for me, are that now people are more aware about what bitcoin is (especially that is not a scam) and with the incoming halving and possible ETFs approval it's actually a big risk selling bitcoin at this point. You can just hold for a few more months and see what happens, I would never sell at this particular time.

Generally, if we see, the price movement of Bitcion has moved in a stable manner. By stable method, it means that Bitcoin is not doing much correction in terms of price like before. It just retests the resistance within the consolidation zone and comes to the support and pushes the support to test the resistance, and the price of Bitcoin is moving from the support of 24k to the resistance of 28.3k. And I think the low volatility of Bitcoin that has been seen is people's awareness about cryptocurrency, which means people are now getting an understanding of cryptocurrency and joining in the form of investment or trading. So this is the reason for the low volatility of Bitcoin in the current era. But we hope that the price will rise soon and break his resistance at 28.3k and move towards approximately 32k, or to go above and beyond. Besides that, Bitcoin halving is coming near, so it would be nice to see that Bitcoin created an all-time high across the previous one, which was 64.8k.