Bitcoin Forum

Since the FTX crash I listened a lot to Gareth Soloway and Nicholas Merten from Datadash. Both expected lower lows. Soloway even expected BTC to get under 10k at some point. With the recent price rise I'm a bit worried that the ship has sailed. In his most recent video he no longer mentioned these lows. He even mentioned a 50k possibility for this year.

What are your thoughts? How big of a price rise do you expect if an ETF gets approved?
And is a scenario of World War III (Israel + USA + NATO vs an alliance of Islamic countries) bullish or bearish?

unless there are underlying faults of the network code, causing people to run out and exit their holding en masse
unless the most efficient mining cost on the planet drops, its currently above $20k in q2+ of 2023

we shouldnt see sub $20k again
..
as for the highs
if everyone on the planet can mine for under $200k no on would want to market buy for more than $200k if they can get it cheaper by other means
(its why bitcoin topped out at $70k in 2021, because everyone on planet could mine for <$80k so no one wanted to pay more)

one piece of advice from my friend when I started to enter the crypto world. "Never trust anyone, yes, anyone" especially content creators who take advantage of the moment to pump and dump. learn to analyze it yourself, even if it's only basic. make decisions based on your choices, not because you follow other people's fomo. I hope this helps.

Most of the social media influencer usually give prediction based on current trend because that’s the most logical thing to predict due to trend that time. They also doing this to quench most of there listener speculation since it’s common nature of trader to wish for more dump when the price is dumping so that they can buy lower and same when the price is pumping so that they sell at higher price.

Predicting based on the current trend gives influencer a bit of support from their followers instead of opposing them. Surely they will mention again the lower lows prediction and quote their previous statement when Bitcoin price becomes bearish. They always play safe when it comes to prediction.

I listened to DataDash a long time ago, but I left watching him because I was not getting anything useful from his long 30-minute-plus videos, I could get more information about the market than wasting my time on his videos. I respect your choice, and everyone has their own tastes, so I will not say, you wasted your time on watching him. You might have got some benefit from the DD channel.

Overall, I don't know what factors should he have discussed in his videos that have convinced you that the market will touch $10k price tag. That's so idiotic for you to not invest anything (if you really have not invested anything) because DD channel must have mentioned a term that indicates that, "one of the possibilities for the market to go $10k" or anything like it (as a disclaimer), they give ideas in all possible ways they can, like the market will touch $10k, or $15k or $50k, etc., etc.

That's the main reason, I left them watching. The market will cross $50k if ETFs get approved and that's because BTC will get more demand over supply. And this war cannot be called WW3 because, in WW3, atom bombs were used, but currently, no one is willing to use those bombs, they were not even used in the Russian and Ukraine war so why were they be used in this war even though if one country wanted to bomb, they will not. Because they have colluded with each other to not use atomic bombs until some countries cross the limits. (Its my observation only).

I think it is difficult for us to see bitcoin prices below $20k, even bitcoin at $25k is also very difficult after the current bull run. Considering the possibility of a bitcoin ETF if approved, I think the price of bitcoin will soar high, especially since the halving moment will occur soon. maybe $50k, or even a new ATH

Looking at the current issue of war, it is likely that it will not make the price of bitcoin go down but will instead tend to rise, this is in line with the Covid-19 conditions which have made the price of bitcoin even higher

Hard to tell there are still CME Gaps around $20k which could trigger a lower downfall with its market value. No one has the assurance of how much its market price could get; same thing with wehether its market price would already recover from the mentioned dump. But I guess its price would just go pump and dump until the halving. There’s no strong reason for a continuous pump at this moment which gives me doubt and this could still be a bear trap so better be careful of entering and going all out this early.

Soloway is always bear by the way.
But somehow he is doing great when he said the price of BTC would drop below $20k back in 2021, it did go below 20k. Been watching him since he was interviewed in Kitconews and I was also wondering how it would happen. It only takes FTX for it to plunge. We didn't see it coming but it did happen.

I'm sure he didn't foresee FTX incident happening but he rely mostly on his TA. But this time because of the near ETF, hard to believe it going under $10k

This means that they say according to the trend at that time, maybe when they say about the price of bitcoin in a bearish market then he will choose the lowest price but the current cycle of prices is not the case and only the lowest is $16K.

By saying now when the recent increase says $50K it is normal because guessing according to trends is not data obtained, maybe that's what I mean.
Influencers always say what they want while followers will follow their words, no wonder.

We don't know how much the price will go up, maybe I expect after the ETF is approved it will be above $50K, but it's different when the halving happens.

There won't be too many of these comments, because there will be more positive and negative news.

This switch of analysis of bitcoin by proclaimed analysts of it going to be bearish down till the $10k level and a later change of position that we wouldn’t reach there again shows that they are no bitcoin expert that we need to place our trust in there analysis because it is all speculations that every knowledgeable investor can predict if the investor understands the events that affects the market. In long run this market fluctuations will prove more to naive people that bitcoin cannot be manipulated by just anyone as people proclaim it is.


With just the fake news of its approval causing this huge FOMO, i would say if it gets approved then we might face a pump and maybe a mini run due to its hype. If there is another thing that causes bitcoin price increase aside the halving bull run, it is the hype of a positive news about it and that’s one thing that yeh ETF will cause. So my prediction is $45k+ should it be approved.


This where the predictions takes different turns, a pro longed war always causes destruction of properties and lives and this affects the economy negatively. When there is a down turn in the economy then it is hard for people to invest which causes low demand of bitcoin and probably high supply of it because many will like to take there funds off to solve emergency problems like during the Covid crisis, so a world war will have a negative impact on the bitcoin price and causes a low base on my predictions.

There is nothing wrong with listening to people who claim to know much about the crypto space. But I doubt if anyone can predict the price of Bitcoin accurately. All we can do is speculate based on our view of the current or future global economic outlook.


Refusal to approve Bitcoin spot ETF and the escalation of the war between Hamas and Israel to other parts of the world will not be favorable to the Bitcoin space. Another war will affect the global economy which will in turn harm the Bitcoin market. But an escalation of this war is unlikely.

I see the positive in the fact that after such an impressive growth, Bitcoin maintains the level of 34k, this leaves for us with the possibility that after some flat period growth may continue, at least if this pump was immediately followed by a decline, this would look worse. Yes, there is a gap around 21k that would not hurt to close, and this may happen on expectations, but I don’t think that we can go below 15k, since Bitcoin has hardly reacted to any negative news lately, and this suggests that there are buyers who are ready to buy Bitcoin.

Like you said the ship has sailed and I'm certain you're not going to see lowest low anymore. It seems 15k was the bottom for the bear season and there's no way Bitcoin price is going to retrace to such a price. Bitcoin halving is just few months from now and spot Bitcoin hype is gaining momentum gradually and all this will help to drive the price up. I don't really expect the price go up to 50k before the year ends but if it does it will be because of the approval of spot ETF. I expect the price to be around 120k - 150k during the bull season.

They give their opinions on a short-term basis and are influenced by the news, rather, some analyses from many influencers are just personal speculation. Personally, I only have a hypothesis about when BTC will surpass those milestones that people often call resistance. Honestly, I'm a bit confused when I see the crypto market in such a sensitive period as it is now. Now, before that, we had the news of the bitcoin sale from Tesla and a series of accompanying news items, although it is said that it is convincing enough to cause a price drop, and indeed, volatility is a characteristic featured in the crypto market, not just bitcoin.

I'm not sure about WW3 in each different region, the instability is increasing. First, look at assets that people are looking for, like gold, to see the reaction. And back to bitcoin, price increases in the near future are dominating, although I am still speculating along with many others that bitcoin will have a sharp decline before entering the bullrun phase.

The market is bullish, but I don't want to overexpect. Because Bitcoin is a highly volatile coin, it pumps when there is any good news. But from the news, it wouldn't last long without real adaptation. Bitcoin ETF isn't a real adaptation at all. It does create a FOMO and pump. But to me, I don't expect below $24K this year. It should play between $25K and $40K. Halving could play a major role regarding the pump if Bitcoin EFT gets approved. But still, both aren't real adaptations for me.

I think you lost the opportunity to enter the market in the hope of entering at the price of $10,000 or lower. You should do your own research and never rely on others. You made a big mistake by following only one channel and not listening to other influencers or market analysts. Because by listening to at least 1+, you will have a better idea of the market and the best practices that can be made.

For example, in this scenario, the best practice is to invest some amount at the current rate. For example,  if you see BTC at the price of $25k or $27k, you should invest some of your money in BTC and keep some funds to invest when the market reaches $10,000, if it comes because the chances are so rare.

If ETFs get approved, then we will see BTC crossing $50,000 easily because a huge pile of trading volume will be seen in the market, and demand and price will increase. The potential of ETFs can be measured from the recent incident of fake news about ETFs and the ticker delivery of Ishare.

With about six months to Bitcoin halving, I do not see price dropping too much. There may be corrections but definitely not deep corrections are expected. We can already see positive reactions in the market that indicates that the bulls are around. This momentum is expected to continue as we wrap of this year.

Those who understand the pattern of the market will use the present retracement to buy more Bitcoin instead of waiting for further lower prices. Even if price goes lower, from next year it will recover and go higher.

If you listen to this influencers and work with whatever they tell you, you will end up in regret. As far as I know, nobody can predict the price movement of bitcoin right but we can only give speculations bases on previous circle. Most of these people that call themselves bitcoin experts are just there to say whatever they like because they have little knowledge on bitcoin price movement.

I believe that we can never see the bottom line of bitcoin anymore in this circle because we saw that last year ending. Since we are expecting the halving which will lead to the bull run, 20k+ is impossible talk more of 10k.

If ETF bitcoin is approved, it means that bitcoin price will reach $150k next bull run because more people will adopt bitcoin in a very easy way.

I know $50k can be achieved with bitcoin but due to its highly volatility, it will be uncertain when will bitcoin hit that price. Even if we say bitcoin etf will soon to be approved by SEC, but I can't give fixed amount as to how high bitcoin will reach that time. Although  a lot of bitcoin analysts are now very optimistic about the future price of bitcoin, but we all know no one holds the future of bitcoin even Satoshi himself, so all these predictions will remain to be predictions until they're proven true. But to be honest, for me I guess $50k for this year is still impossible to achieve, but it will be highly possible right after the bitcoin halving is over.

You shouldn't listen too much those so-called forecasters when you trade, because if you lose money, you will just accuse them and you won't learn from your mistakes.
Regarding ETF approval I don't think it will have a significant impact on the price, as it is already priced in by the market IMO and because CME and CBOE futures listings along with Bakkt carried high expectations towards the community but didn't really pull up the price sustainably at the end.

I recently made a thread regarding the $50,000 mark and the possibilities of surpassing it. In my opinion, Bitcoin won't face any major difficulties surpassing it within the upcoming year, certainly not for 2023, unless it's approved by Blackrock, but even then, it looks too optimistic for the two months that are left.

Personally, I don't think we'll see any major crashes below $25,000 in the upcoming period unless a major event occurs. Being denied the right to be listed as an ETF by Blackrock is certainly one of them, but I don't believe that its effects will last forever, even though it's unlikely to. Who knows, a new ATH might be closer than we think.

For me yes, it seems that we have weathered the storm for this month. And no longer gonna see lowest lows, or at least a crash to $20k as the sentiments turns into bullish this month and most like will continue pre-halving.


Did you see the geo-political events in the background affecting the price negatively? No, so I do not think it will put a a dent in the market. Even last year, with the Ukraine vs Russia war, the price was not affected by it. It was the Terra Luna and the FTX collapse that has shaken the market to bring it to it's lowest low.

The crystal ball works by aligning it with historical data from bitcoin charts, past events, etc. You mention something interesting, War to come and the one that is ongoing, and there is such a disconcerting variable, that perhaps the closest thing we can see is the pandemic, it was not a conventional war, it was a pandemic, but you remember the behavior of bitcoin for those years, no, review, the point is that there is nothing new, just take all the existing resources, technical analysis, opinions and decipher your actions, then give monetary value to those decisions by taking positions in the market, because if some They want the answer as to whether the +30k will be maintained with a current bonus of +4k,(actual price +$34k, today) the answer is create an action plan; DCA, sell, hodl, sell-buy, leverages, or simply wait for the before-halving-later, or Don't even do anything until 2030, the year in which we will surely have 6 base figures.  8)

This is all I can tell you; the others who think that each bitcoin will go back to 15k-20k are now vague based on my analysis. Even if we say that everything the experts are saying is just prediction and speculation, if we look at history, you will see that the chart of Bitcoin from then until now is all up, and I have not seen anything all down. Can't you see anything?

That means that whatever he said before will fall to this value, and if he sees that it is impossible to happen, he can take back or change what he said, and whatever the reason is, for sure he will not say that. It seems that many people gave negative thoughts to bitcoin, but in the end they were just embarrassed. You know my point.

I learned that you don't listen to people's opinions as they are just personal thoughts and speculation, and I learned it the hard way when I once invested based on what I heard. In as much as people will reply to you, keep in mind that people will always have opinions and opinions can't be wrong as everyone has the right to one. Good luck!

15k would be the lowest low because the price is now at 34k and it's still needs to break the multiple support levels to make another lowest low which is very impossible to happen in just a couple of weeks since I'm basing in the weekly time frame. So franky1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5472029.msg63068959#msg63068959) is right in saying that it only happens when there is underlying fault in the code. For me, I consider that 30k is a very strong support which is if there is a drastic drop in price, that's the only price it will go down.

Aside from that, World War III is impossible to happen because government will never benefit the war because no matter the result will only a waste of resources.

I can say that 30k level is a strong one for now, unless, as you said, there will be worst events that will happen in the months to come.
So for now, I don't think we will go back to 20k and below, but who knows, we can't be very sure in this market as one hard blow can make the market go down fast.

In my own instinct, we cannot be sure if we already saw the bottom of the current market situation today.

There are guys who are like "$30k, $25k, $20k, etc. is the new bottom", but eventually surpassed their expectations and got even lower than that.

I believe that there would be unexpected happenings along the way without us knowing that the market may tumble anytime after successfully staying at a specific range for so long.

Just like today since the listing of IBTC in the DTCC, the price is just steady within the $33.8k to $34.2k as of this time of writing. Although that the bulls are doing their best to maintain a key support level, that doesn't mean we are out of the woods yet.

Probably the next big black swan who might have the "FTX-level" impact would be a challenge for the Bitcoin bulls to hold on as much as possible making sure that the support level wouldn't break to avoid further retracement going south.

So for me, there's still a possibility that we could still revisit the lowest of the lows in the current crypto market if ever the bulls would lose momentum in keeping the support level steady and strong.

You can predict what you want but there is no way you can outsmart the unpredictable market conditions whether if it's on a bearish or bullish trend.

In 2020 the lowest low of a bear market happened just months before the halvening, which was highly unusual, because the price should be expected to grow at that point. This happened because of the panic from governments announcing lockdowns due to covid, and the crash was very short-lived and Bitcoin quickly returned to its expected trajectory.

So, if there won't be any black swan events, there will be no reason for Bitcoin price to go down too much, because we're supposed to be leaving the bear market at this stage.

You are right there. I also believe that a few days or weeks from now it is possible to have an exit liquidation, but even so, I still don't want to lead the market chart. In my opinion, that's what I read on the chart, and if we check or take a look at the movement of Dxy and others, we will see that there will really be changes in the price value of Bitcoin.

Although the market is very unpredictable because it is volatile, it will still remain that no one really knows what will happen in the future. Right now, all we can do is make predictions and speculate.

Well if you waited for 9.9k to buy you fucked up 🆙.

The 9.9k ship is gone by by .

Do a dca and set a few dip buys. say

25250
23230
21210
19190

good luck and next time think dca and some dip step ladders down.

What we've seen after FTX, for me, was the bottom. I know bitcoin is always unpredictable and it does exactly the same opposite of what everybody is expecting but right now, between the ETFs and the halving, I really struggle to see how it could go below $15-16k again, we're talking about losing more than 50% from the current value. Maybe we'll go down again to $25-28k, maybe even a little lower, but below $20k I don't know, I don't want to say it's impossible but almost.

Most likely yes, and although some people like to speculate on extraordinary events affecting the price, I prefer to go on the basis of what is most likely. At the point of the cycle we are at and the recent price trend the most normal thing is that we do not return to sub $20K levels, but rather the opposite. Could some event as happened in its day with COVID-19 cause such a fall? Yes, but I do not rely on what I cannot predict. And in the case of wars, there is no direct relationship that indicates that they necessarily affect the market up or down.

Black swan events like Terra and FTX don't usually occur and it's bad to have FTX fiasco only a few months after Terra fiasco. These two fiascos mostly dump Bitcoin to its bottom of the long lasting bear market. I agree with you that low price after FTX fiasco is like a bottom of this bear market already.

I still open with scenario of at least one black swan event or just massive fud to dump Bitcoin market like in 2020 we had it before the halving. I don't know what will be a next tool for market maker to dump the market in first quarter of 2024 before the halving. Because black swan event like Covid-19 which was announced in March 2020 by WHO is very barely seen.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8vZFdobcAExky6?format=png&name=900x900 (https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1714702926508359812)

Yeah I was around in November when we’re had that dead cat and we’re about to break the lows, almost seemed like a given, but I think we double bottomed and rallied from there.

There was lots and lots of fear. Basically everyone was freaking out about the exchange they use and whether they were another Ftx. Took months to calm everyone down. So since we couldn’t break $15K then I would say the low is in unless there is a massive recession or something similar.

In the current state of chaos, the impact on the price of Bitcoin can be seen because, if seen, the Palestine and Israel conflict has already impacted the price (https://www.coindesk.com/), even though both of them are small countries. But in war situations, every bitcoin holder sold their bitcoin to meet their needs. Taking this topic, if WW3 starts, I think it can have an impact on the price of Bitcoin, which has never happened in the history of Bitcoin, because a small piece of bad news can have an impact on the price of Bitcoin (Covid). Why can't war definitely have an impact?


Of course, I agree with you that if ETF approval is seen as positive, then surely there can be a huge gain in the price of Bitcoin because, if seen from a technical perspective, currently the United States is making 97.7% of global trading volume (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-spot-push-us-trading-volumes-crypto-etf) for crypto-related ETFs. So as ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said, "If spot bitcoin is approved, then demand will be greater than daily supply of bitcoin,", so it can be concluded that bitcoin can go up to 50k, 150k, and even 180k. You can see the rest of the details in this post (https://x.com/saylor/status/1691805485018607878?s=20).

I have never heard and never want to hear any experts or celebrities analyze bitcoin. In my prediction, I think we have hit the bottom in this bear season and it happens in 2021. Those who continue to wait and believe that we will see more drops while the halving approaches should review their plans and change accordingly. I think it is unlikely that bitcoin will drop to $10k even if there are more widespread wars or any black swans.

That is the halving price , in the day of halving itself but the total effect in the coming months are far different because the price even go almost x10 from that very day.

Which means we must talk about what is the value after the halving and how much did it take to record each ATH.


_______________________________________

Going back to OP , we have gone long time from that 10k below price so sorry if you did not manage to accumulate from those days because surely you are facing a high value purchase now.

But as things stand, I don't see any impact from the war between Palestine and Israel on bitcoin. Bitcoin grew in the last week of October and we are still trading above $34K. I think not every war will affect bitcoin and the world economy, big wars will have an impact but small wars I doubt it.


And if the ETF is not approved, what will happen to bitcoin? I also saw a thread about this and I also want to emphasize again that bitcoin has grown millions of times over the years without an ETF. So whether the ETF is approved or not, bitcoin will still reach $150k, not just $50k.

The fact that experts' predictions are always changing, like those made by Soloway and Merten, shows how fluid the crypto world is. One day they say one thing, but the next day the scenery changes, which makes them change their minds. It happens a lot. Now, if Soloway has changed his mind, it might be because of signs in the market that werent there before. Thats a good worry. The crypto ship can move quickly, leaving many behind.

In the past, when an ETF was accepted, there was a lot of interest and investment in assets that were linked to the new ETF. So, a price rise? Of course, its possible. But geopolitics is dangerous when it comes to the World War III situation you brought up. Wars usually cause doubt, and when investors arent sure what will happen, they often hedge their bets with assets like gold or, in this day and age, maybe bitcoin. But be careful; the economy during a war is unstable and dangerous.

If we are to be objective, nobody knows what to expect, we go by what has happened in previous cycles in order to predict what the movement this time could look like, take note that in these previous cycles there was no BTC spot etf, yet BTC price pumped some months after the halving, so i expect that to happem again. A lot of people i talk with says that a spot etf approval is now a matter of when and not if, if it is true and we get an approval, then we would see how the market would react, i can't predict that scenario because it is happening for the first time.

Nevertheless, i don't think we're about to see world war 3, nobody wants such to happen and so i doubt that external forces would interfere with physical support, both in the war in the middle east and the one in Ukraine.

We already saw the lowest price of Bitcoin this year at $15k and now, with the price of Bitcoin rising at $34k, it looks like we will not see a price of $15k again. But if the situation worsens again, we may see the price drop below $30k. But let's hope that doesn't happen.

And if a Bitcoin ETF is approved, it could be a big boost for Bitcoin price increases. It could jump straight to $ 40k- $ 50k or even $60k. Anything can happen, especially next year there is a halving moment that will occur. And many analysts also say that Bitcoin price could rise very high, perhaps above $100k-$150k.

I wasn't thinking about a World War III scenario. It fell so far short of my expectations and I really hope that doesn't happen. It is the people who will suffer from World War III. We have seen what happened with World War II, when technology was not as advanced as today. If that happens shortly, it will destroy half of the earth.

l think that we have seen the lowest price of bitcoin for now, except unexpected happened. Bitcoin price will continue to go up after a little fluctuation. l think the price will get up to $40, 000 before the end of the year considering  the bitcoin situation. All in all, l think it is the right time for anyone who wants to make reasonable profit during the bull run, to make an investment, especially, long-term investment.

Bitcoin is trading at $34k and if compared to the previous ATH, the price is still heavily discounted, so it's still a good time to buy. Those who had the opportunity to buy bitcoin for under $20k or $10k but if they didn't buy, they should regret it. But for those new to the market, the price of $34k is not high if they have a selling goal of $100k or $200k in the future. Therefore, the current bitcoin price is not too high and people should start accumulating now if they do not want to continue to regret more in the future.

I personally believe that this major event will be world war III, which is slowly unfolding right now. And subsequently the collapse of the current monetary system.

Also keep in mind that banks and governments want to launch their CBDC's and bitcoin is a threat to it.

I am very convinced all of these things but I have no idea how big of an impact they will have on the market value of BTC, in the short run and in the long run.

As many others have commented, with the current two wars unlikely to have a major impact on creating a third world war, the major powers will never let that happen. The great powers know that if World War 3 happens, it will take hundreds of years for them to have things like today. They wouldn't be stupid enough to let their research and achievements disappear and have to rebuild from scratch.

The launch of CBDC has nothing to do with bitcoin, CBDC is a currency and bitcoin is an asset, how could bitcoin threaten CBDCs?

I think Bitcoin will be the least of our worries if WW3 breaks out. Unfortunately, there are currently way too many active conflicts, and everyone has focused on Israel and Palestine, and we've completely forgotten what happens in Ukraine. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia advanced even further, since the interest and the funding stem from the Middle East. I'm hoping that it settles down soon, because otherwise we'd start suffering the consequences of these wars soon enough.
Hopefully yes, I don't believe that this will turn into another world war. We've learned enough from the previous wars, and I'm hoping that we can prevent another one, which, with current technology, would be disastrous for all of mankind.

I don't listen to any of the so-called experts because they make mistakes all the time, and because it's simply impossible to make rational guesses about Bitcoin price and whether the bottom has been reached. It feels like Bitcoin has moved past the bottom point, and over time, the bottom seems to be at a higher price point, so I don't expect a return to the previous one.
Of course, though, it depends on global events. If something like a full-on WWIII hits the world, as the op hypothesizes, I think we can see a lower bottom time than right now, and possibly even the end of relevance of cryptos if that war gets nuclear and basically destroys human civilization as we know it. But in that case, Bitcoin will be the least of our worries.

You can listen to others but not that Gareth Soloway, that man knows nothing about crypto market and everything he says are always over exaggerated, do not take him seriously, in 2019 I was mislead by listening to all these crypto popular figures, John Mcafee was one of them, and there is also others too, I planned to start buying only when they claimed it right time to start buying, and I missed every good opportunities.

Instead of following these people it's better to trust your DCA skills only, start buying when the market is in red and DCA across the months in the bear market and only stop when the bull market starts, and start taking your profits when it's good enough for you, forget all crypto influencers either small or big, they are all saying and doing what they like, they are also investors just like you and they will be waiting to dump on those who are clueless.

Finally, World War isn't ever going to happen, there were greater regrets in the last world wars and honestly it was a pointless war, it's not worth it, I don't believe that another world war will ever happen again, so let's hope for a better future and stop thinking about something that will never happen.

Stay Positive.

Bear market ended back in March. So yeah, we are a long ways from the bottom of the bear market. It isn't coming back.


Bitcoin typically spends roughly a year crashing, which it did in 2022.

Then Bitcoin typically spends half a year, give or take a few months, at the bottom of the market, the large "bottom" of the bear market was $15k-$25k, because resistance was at $25k, though there was a sort of sub-basement to the bottom (that $15k-$17k range) that occurred as a result of the FTX collapse, and that only lasted what like 2 months. Once Bitcoin broke past $25k in March the bear market was over.

Then, after the bear market what we typically see is the price shoot up for a bit and then the hype of the bear market being over fades and the price tends to go sideways or slightly down for about half a year. This is the period we just got through from mid-April to mid-October (6 months exactly) when the price lulled between $25k and $31k.

Then Bitcoin breaks out of that long sideways lull. This is what happened these past two weeks. We are now in the heading-for-the-halving phase in which we should see Bitcoin gradually chop its way upward. It'll go up/down/sideways, but overall up for probably roughly the 12 months until the post-halving boom starts hitting as hype and FOMO builds into the next bull run. Of course firm continued rejections of all ETF applications, acceptance of an ETF application, or major negative or positive US regulatory or legislative action toward the industry could cause big negative or positive ways during this time.




The chance that we'd see lower lows than the bear market stopped being reasonably possible all the way back in January when Bitcoin broke out of the FTX sub-basement of the bottom of the bear market. It's end of october now, over 10 months later, honestly no reason to be asking this question at this point. And by mid-march when Bitcoin broke out of the bottom of the market in general, when it broke out over $25k, that ended any remote possibility of revisiting the bottom of the market, let alone going lower than it.

Anyone the past 6 months who has been talking about the bear market starting over again and Bitcoin dipping back to the bear market lows or even lower is peddling FUD and nonsense at you. Ignore these people entirely. These are the sorts of people who say Bitcoin is going to zero and it will always crash more and any uptick in price is bitcoin's last hurrah before it ultimately crashes for good.

Get to know how the market cycles work so you aren't worrying about new lows 6 months after the bear market ended and 10 months after we left those lows behind for good. Unless we get a crash under $30k in the coming weeks (before Bitcoin makes its next move up) Bitcoin will never see under $30k again. Worrying about $15k and under is pure fictional thinking.

I don't see a WW3 brewing. Do you think that Russia would be stupid enough to attack NATO? There would be no winners of such war with so many nuclear submarines around the world.
We've reached a situation where no country will risk a global nuclear war. The only ones stupid enough to do it would be jihadists, which is why the West is limiting their access to nukes.


People don't want CBDC. If they're forced to abandon fiat money and use CBDC they will turn to bitcoin and if all fails they'll turn against the government.


If there really is another world war you'll have more things to worry about than bitcoin, like how to get clean water and protect yourself from radiation.

As long we arent that still on halving period then all the possibilities of that bottom price could really still happen. We dont know if that 15k is already the bottom but since we are fast approaching on halving season then
it is likely that we are already able to hit that bottom and making this gradual increase in price but everything would really be still vary because there's still tons of things that could happen along the way while we are really that sailing on or hovering with the market which it could really make out such impact and might really having that last crash before the bull season. We dont know if it could actually happen on this cycle or not
yet there's no way on telling if it would be..

If you are really that having those hunches and could really have that risks taking then you could really be able to wait up for that dump but ofcourse it cant really be denied
that you would really be having those kind of doubts and thinking that what if this is the price bottom? There's no one could be able to tell and this is where
this market is really that truly unpredictable.

If the op did not buy any coin during the 15-20k slot last fall he fucked up bigly.

He even got under 19k this year. So he had two solid shot to buy at 70% plus discounts from the ath.

Now he is hoping for a third shot a corn under 20k or better yet under 10k.

The op had a serious fail in judgement. I am sorry for his poor decision   processes.

Following touts on tv or the internet is not the way to go.

First time I've heard Datadash here, if they don't mention it anymore probably they don't believe in that price. After the 30k+ jump it's normal for people not to talk about declines. I think we've already seen the lowest point long time ago. I'm not saying there will only be an increase from now on, but I see the possibility of a new bottom as very slim.

About World War 3 scenario, let's hope for the best. There may be regional wars, but I don't think there will be a world war. Humanity has a lot to lose in this war. In that kind of situation Bitcoin or money is not the first thing we have to think about.

$150K or $1M doesn't matter if the whole world is more active in making bitcoin its best investment. After all, we cannot avoid volatility that makes the price of bitcoin correct instead of just expecting an increase. ETFs can make bitcoin gain high interest from various groups - in fact I am very sure that some people who are anti-bitcoin will change their attitude after the ETF is approved.

The impact of war is always negative in the eyes of humanity - especially as thousands of innocent souls die because of war. War can affect the bitcoin market - as well as the stock market, but at the moment we never know what will happen so you have to have a way to minimize your own losses if the market becomes unprofitable.

If they're saying $50k could be possible for this year. Then it's possible that we're going to see more for the bull run.
A lower low hasn't been seen and it's unlikely anymore because it has to beat the low price of $3k from 2018.
These speculations can be said to still have the possibility but having the outlook of how it looks like, very unlikely.

I want to tell you something for free, I believe you do hear the statement that says do as I say but don't do as I do. Now, it's the complete opposite you should do. Because people say bitcoin price will go to 10k, you should never believe them, is like saying bitcoin price will go to 500k and you want to believe that and then buy bitcoin in anticipation for that. Clearly, this guys are market analyst and they say based on how they feel about the market, it's speculations and you should never judge base on their say.

I can also see that you want to predict the future price because you seen or read somewhere that Blackrock is anticipating for Bitcoin spot ETF, now what are yiu going to do if the ETF turn down and never approved by SEC, will still stomach it and hold or you are going to sell and live bitcoin?

It's simple except you want to stress yourself over nothing. But bitcoin whenever you see a retracement because that $10k you think will happen might never happen, maybe not now because the market has gain another momentum and has left that November time when it was crashing and calling for help, now it seems a single drop is been cathch sharply by another buyer. You can do DCA when the price drop or just buy and hold but if you are expecting anyone to tell you future price of bitcoin, you will be disappointed.

You can listen to them but never think of believing them either. These two people and many other influencers are just speculators who are grabbing attention from their false market speculations. Don't give them a reason to believe because they are not controlling the market nor seeing what to happen next.

All of these have little to no impact on the market. I couldn't think about WW III, we're peace lovers.
We can witness corrections and pumps as it was natural in crypto but pointing out that these will be the reason (war and ETF approval) that is somewhat a debate.

I agree that it is ok to listen to the analysts but we should always verify their predictions with other analysts and our own interpretation of the current market.  Having many good references is a good thing since we can have the pros and cons of the situation and it is up to us what to come out of those analysis and predictions.


Obviously, rejection of  ETF means a bearish sentiment while war if not worldwide can be bullish for Bitcoin because people might find ways to have their assets converted to a more safer one and Bitcoin is one of the best choice.

For all I know, is that these guys have swallowed their words one too many times and will keep making their wild guess as these predictions are there just to try and help them remain relevant, otherwise at the end of the day these are predictions that can or cannot happen as it's always a probable chance!


If there is something I like about Bitcoin when it comes to highly anticipated events, they never disappoint when it comes to price soaring and an ETF approval could potentially go for the sky, a new all time high (ATH)


This war does threaten doing business in person and for people that don't want the hassle of carrying valuables or cash...Bitcoin is definitely the way to go especially with the current events of war easily make crypto bullish.

In the long run, these price movement do not matter. I am investing only for long term. I had been investing since the start of Bitcoin and also made decent returns with some sales. But most of my funds are now invested for long term. Because I believe that the price of Bitcoin can reach even upto a million per unit.

It is predicted that the market is still in the bear phase, and the correction is not over yet. The chances are that in the coming weeks or months, we will see a sub $20k dip before the bull takeover. These small price rallies are just to attract more investors because whales are looking for exit liquidity.
War might not affect the price of bitcoin at this moment until the USA is directly involved in it, and there are no chances of the USA doing this as the USA is currently dealing with certain economic challenges.

Don't depend on that 2020 black swan event, I am not saying it can't happen but this nonsense started in 2020, it was never like that in 2016 halving, so there is nothing saying that something like that will happen again, but it's smart to be prepared for anything, I still strongly believe that 15k was the bottom and those who held their money waiting for 10k have missed the both already, I don't see anything changing this again, the worst that could maybe happen is we requesting the base once more, and that's if something bad happens in 2024.

Every predictors of Bitcoin are also investors that's why no one should trust anyone in this crypto space, they will all be looking forward to take their profits too, so they don't want every human on earth to have the same goal as theirs, while everyone is focusing on 200k Bitcoin, some are pointing at 150k but these people are predicting over 200k, they are setting traps for people, to keep holding their Bitcoin while they take their profits.

Right now I am less active on my DCA into Bitcoin because I believe it's time to slow down, every October and November are always Bullish time for Bitcoin, so I want to keep storing some stable coin and wait for good pullback, maybe early 2024, but I don't expect a big dump anymore, I think FTX and Luna crash was the best buying opportunity that majority of people took for granted.

If you are an investor who likes long-term planning or fundamentals then say some price movements that are currently surprising may not be too influential, because it cannot be predicted whether in the next few years the price will still be below or even jump higher than and beyond your expectations.

This method is indeed quite safe to do but certainly you remain firm on your long-term period, do not be easily affected by significant bearish conditions that might make you disturbed or worried to continue, and also yes I hope you use a budget that will not be disturbed by your real needs, you must be able to focus on carrying out the planning that you think is best. Because it is not uncommon for some of those who end up failing in their long-term planning because they are worried and not sure that in the next few years bitcoin will recover and increase significantly to reach a new ATH, patience and also consistency in doing HODL is the key.

Do you plan to bet that we haven't seen the lowest price for Bitcoin already? I believe this will cost you a lot than anything, you don't have to wait for dips before you can start buying Bitcoin because nobody knows what will happen tomorrow, apart from the past histories of Bitcoin action, what if this time around is different? What if this is the beginning of the Bull market already?

See? There are too many concerns about the Bitcoin price action and I don't like getting involve in such worrisome thing, instead I believe it's better we keep using dollar cosy averaging, either it's back to 40k by next month of November or it dump to 20k it shouldn't matter to you, stay focused on your small purchases.

If the dip comes will you still be able to afford DCAing? This is the question you should keep asking yourself, fight this battle in the bear market and start relaxing once the halving as far gone, it will be the beginning of a new chapter in your life, your sound of victory.

On the contrary I think you should brace up for the upcoming rally just incase the US finally through themselves into the war because they have repeatedly said they would support isreal if it happens that things get out of hand for them. So maybe the price surge is yet to happen because US is still by the side but if they do, you should expect probably printing of money and that could increase inflation maybe slightly and more people would want to hedge their fiat in btc and that means more increase for demand making hodlers to determine the price and of which you know hodlers like increased profit.

Don't forget that tensions between Taiwan and China are also very tense and conflicts can happen at any time. The United States is facing a series of challenges and directly participating in any war would not be in their interest, they would not do it, IMO.

Rising inflation I don't think will benefit bitcoin. I mean, look at what happened last year when inflation was at its peak, bitcoin was dumped pretty heavily. Bitcoin is a high-risk asset, it is not a safe haven so whether people choose it or not is not guaranteed.

Despite the general negative trends, there are a number of prerequisites that determine the high probability of an increase in the price of Bitcoin. A very important factor is the upcoming Bitcoin halving (approximately April 20, 2024, block number 840000). It seems to me, around March-April 2024, the price of Bitcoin will most likely begin to rise. It is highly likely that the previous peak (65000 USD) will be passed.

There is no certainty what you say will happen, I have seen many people make similar predictions as you. Many people thought bitcoin would drop to $20k and then start rising but it eventually rose to $34k and is showing signs of breaking $35k, if you check the chart now. I don't know what will happen next, but those who are suspecting this is a trap and thinking bitcoin will soon drop to $20k, one thing I know is that they regret not buying bitcoin when it costs 26k$.

We are far from ever going to see such massive sell out in the bitcoin market at all times because the 10k price is far gone as long as the bitcoin price correction is concerned,  bitcoin is now too expensive for that price to ever happen again and we have to accept that fact along the line,  and hoping to see that we can at least have some few base level market achievement at some point and in as much as that be it we have to stay active to always take advantage of any price discount drop that can happen.

We may not see such as low as $20k which is what we expected after the FTX market attack and several others.

There are speculations stating that the price could go for as low as 10k or even 9k this time around, as no real support is available at least within the current price points as well as projected price points that bitcoin will be in in the next few months. Not to mention that historically, bitcoin has this slingshot mechanism where it suffers major drawbacks first before it actually propels itself upwards, just like what happened in the first 3 halvings that came before this one. In any case, one thing's for sure, as long as the net amount of bitcoin enthusiasts who held strong remain the same, bitcoin has a pretty nice chance of at least reaching the 60k valuation that we were able to enjoy 3 years ago, perhaps even higher than that but that's a little too optimistic.

I think we have seen the lowest low of this bear market and it was 15476 USD, I get that price from Binance, it was in 2022/11/21. I would say there was a chance of seeing lowest low of this bear market before halving but after the involment of BlackRock, I don't think that's going to happen. We will have a stable price between 30K and 40K and then there will be a huge rise after halving.

World War III is a bearish scenario. Who is going to buy bitcoin when their smartphones, computers, furnitures, savings and houses are getting destroyed and their siblings are dying? No one will think about investments in World War III. Probably Pharma Business owners and military equipment manufacturers will benefit the most and that's all.

In these times yes, we may have seen it, but I believe that this is not the case now, because the market when bitocin reached $3k was something that everyone approved of before purchasing, because it took some time to rise, what I I can think that it will not reach those levels again, because the majority of institutions have bought and have good options to make everything better, the highest that bitcoin can reach may be $23k, I don't think it will go down from there, That may be a great resistance that I think will not come again, but not everything is impossible, if it can happen, but as the market is I don't see it, I see a great price.

Economic news doesnt correlate most of the time but it isnt really that bad on taking a look or make considerations though.We've seen those different market conditions basing up with those major events or situation that it did really make out such impact on crypto market. Wayback we do see that any economical events or approach doesnt really affect out crypto space but it seems that nowadays it could really be likely to be giving out that kind of significant effect into it on which you cant really be able to blame out the community that whenever there are some news that do pop out then you would really be trying out to assess whether those things are positive or negative on which you would really be that definitely be trying out to make actions in correlation into it on which it is really just that a normal approach.

We've seen the bottom? Possible but its not really that something that we can conclude. We arent that too far with that 15k price on which we are just that 150% with that price and knowing that sentiments could really
happen anytime which it could crash out the market so easily. This is why i dont really love on drawing up conclusions specially into this unpredictable space.

I think otherwise - the market has been trying to recover from its last major correction. I'm not saying the bearishness is still ongoing - it was already behind at the end of 2022 and this year bitcoin is in a recovery phase ahead of the 2024 halving.

Bitcoin had tried to break through the $32K resistance in the previous months - but that only failed and saw it correct further to $24K. Meanwhile in October - everything changed as the hype about ETF increased. Investors don't want to miss the train - they want to buy a lot and hold it for the long term, so this recovery phase is expected to continue regardless of further volatility.

I heard that name already - Gareth Soloway, and what I remember is that most of his prediction, or analysis are against the market, or at least kind of pessimistic one. He's always predicting that Bitcoin will go lower than $15,000, and even lower.

In the video that I watched a few years ago, it said there that the last time we will see Bitcoin's price @$10,000 will be the last time that we will be seeing it at that price. What are the chances of Bitcoin's price reaching $10,000 again? I don't know, but for me it's very low that it might not reach that anymore, and just by looking at the current price movement of Bitcoin, it seems like the price is starting to rise already from it's recent lows of ~$17,000.

How big of a price increase do I expect if Blackrock's Spot Bitcoin ETF gets approved? Bitcoin will reach $100,000 sooner than we expected, and with how optimistic I am, it might go as high as $150,000 TBH. I might be wrong though (as always), but... yeah and it's just my prediction only. As for World War III, forget about it because it will not happen at all.

I don't listen to them, planning to just copy their advice. I listen to consider their arguments if I find those arguments intelligent. And I compare those arguments to other channels. Someone else I often listened to is Mark Yusco, a hedge fund manager with great geopolitical insights.

I remember there was a time when many channels predicted that BTC would at least 100x within 3 months. This was not so long ago.
I also believe that the argument for this was the bank failures (Silicon valley bank and others who follow, which would cause a run on the banks and massive buy pressure for BTC)
This argument makes me frown because many others here say that a monetary collapse (bank failures) is bearish. I don't see why in case of a banking collapse, people would run to BTC. At this point in time one can not buy groceries and pay off a mortgage in BTC.

I dumped all channels who predicted this so I stayed with Soloway and Datadash.

While I have no understanding about short term market timing (graph analysis and short term trend prediction), I do understand the geopolitical situation quite well. I follow Ray Dalio for this (multi billion dollar hedge fund manager, and historian of the monetary system).

I personally estimate the odds very high of an all out war within the next few years. The current monetary system will eventually end in hyperinflation and bank failures, due to the escalated amount of debt on a global scale. This monetary system with the USA as a leader has been running since WWII, and WWIII will just be a battle to transfer wealth and power to a new leader that establishes the new financial rules. I believe that these will be the BRICS countries, and that the hegemony of the USA will be over.

If I stand by my prediction, I guess there should be new lows and I should not enter the market now.
However, I have no idea if the impact of such a war (and a monetary collapse, hyperinflation) would be more negative than that ETF approval will be positive.
I also don't know if the upswing caused by the 4th halving, would overpower a downswing caused by a huge war and a monetary collapse.

In times like this, it's really unclear whether bitcoin will drop to 30k; right now, it's still around 34k. But he will have a liquidation; for sure, it is not happening now. Of course, when there is a sudden increase in Bitcoin, there will be a retracement; let's expect that.

This is based on my technical analysis and also based on what is happening in the market, which is why I said this too. So at least somehow I'm in a position to buy and sell. Even other cryptocurrencies have some similarities.

  I total agree with you because some of this forecasters too are prune to errors, we are quick to putting the blame on someone when things don’t go in our favour, this is why you need to have the idea of what you’re doing, set analysis yourself, by so doing you’re trusting your judgement. Have one indicator and master it very well this will help with your analytical skills, rather than waiting for people to theirs fit you. Mastering an indicator or two will give you a better understanding on the  price action of the market and it will also  broaden your knowledge about the concept of crypto.
  I won’t attempt to lay out a timeline, but current economic levels are unsustainable. With everything happening around the world no, economy crisis in most countries couple with the war we might see a down turn of Bitcoin cause of this. The government are pushing really hard to make sure Bitcoin suffers but Bitcoin being a different entity will always prevails.