Bitcoin Forum

As April's Halving event approaches, one wonders even more when the expected increase in BTC's value will take place. Are there any specific candle patterns that you know of that can be used in technical analysis to catch the Bull Run ahead of time?  There are those who argue that candlestick patterns called bullish pin bars  (https://www.morpher.com/blog/bullish-and-bearish-pin-bar-patterns) signal a bull market, but I am not so sure about the validity of candlestick patterns in terms of predicting the right outcome.

Do you have an indicator that you use that you think is useful for accurate predictions in technical analysis? Also, have you come across such a sign in the recent past until today and what are your analyzes?

It's hard to predict the market because even market makers are unable to control everything, every event on this planet. Hence sometimes their plans will be broken or not fully completed as their initial plan.

You will have an easier life if you don't time the market and only focus on fundametals as well as have a long term investment.

What are fundamentals of Bitcoin that are good for your long term investment?
It's Controlled supply (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply). In another way to represent it, it is Bitcoin equivalent network time (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5331087).

Dig more about it with How is the 21 million Bitcoin cap defined and enforced? (https://blog.lopp.net/how-is-the-21-million-bitcoin-cap-defined-and-enforced/)

Don't use indicators, try to look at fractals.

I have personally used the following indicators while trading and from my experience I could say that all these will help you at certain point of time but not every time and the harsh reality of these indicators are they will form a pattern post the price change occurs and not before that most of the time and hence, I would suggest to rather start researching about the current market situations and any news and events about crypto which could have positive or negative impact on crypto and trade accordingly. Indicators has helped me but to the extend and the accuracy suggested by influencers.

RSI
MACD
Bollinger bands
ZLSMA
Double EMA
Hull moving average

Of course, go back to your price action reading, all the bullish pattern therein would be a very good sign of halving's bull run just like how it happened from September to November. But be sure that you use 1W or 1M for it. They could also guide you if the pattern changes, which might be the time to opt-out.

I'm a living witness to the goodness of price actions my friend, they are so powerful when used on higher timeframes. Nevertheless, I make sure that I use other trend trading or breakout strategies to filter/confirm the signal.

I've used countless indicators, both default and custom, I must tell you that they are weak, you do not rely on them as they often fake signals. The ones you see that are crossed now might uncross at the moment after, so they are not so reliable. You would see them confirming the halving too since they work with the market price but I prefer price action for reliability if you know how to read it better.

Perhaps, you confirm it with an indicator to be more sure.

The bullish pin bar candle pattern is a technical analysis tool that can be used to spot probable trend reversals. This suggests that there is substantial purchasing pressure at the current price level.

It is not, however, a perfect prediction of the bull market. Why? Because even after a bullish pin bar candle pattern develops, the market might still go in the opposite direction. Other elements to examine include market trends, trading volume, and support and resistance levels.

https://www.morpher.com/blog/bullish-and-bearish-pin-bar-patterns

When it comes to technical analysis of the market you don't focus on only one factor to make your trading decision or predict what is about to happen in the price of an asset "Bitcoin" Rather you combine a lot of other factors such as break of market structure, reversal patterns, etc before you can make your final decision.
 The bullish pin bar should serve as a signal of what is ahead of you or what is about to occur in the trending market. However, this bullish pin bar can be said to determine direction only if found on a higher time frame such as the weekly or the monthly, to talk about a possible bull market.

Thanks for the the information about such candles, actually I am also learning the basics of trading even I have become the SR here, well, I read the article you have provided and they have already mentioned that the opposite of the bullish pin bars is possible means if the candle is showing bullish sentiment but market can still dump. And in the end they have mentioned a possible way to handle the situation or judge it.

We have to look at the fundamentals of the market too like what is happening in the world that can impact that assets, currency or product you are trading in.

Besides all that so far I have learnt that never read the candles because we might not find reading candles useful as they are based on past data and in crypto past data cannot be used to predict the future. So, the best practice is to take all the measure to get full benefit of the bullish market and we can not time the market. But at least we can try that.

There is no direct connection between halving and an increase in the price of Bitcoin, and therefore the price of Bitcoin will not increase once the halving occurs, but in the long run the halving affects the supply so that the level of supply is reduced, and because investors expect the price to increase, here the supply will decrease again and the demand will increase, which means that after several months of the occurrence Halving, the price will increase clearly. These months range from 12 months to 18 months on average, and therefore the chance of a large price increase will occur in 2025, despite the possibility that we will reach $100,000 before that date.

No matter how much technical analysis and fundamental analysis is done at the moment, these analyzes will not be very important because accurate analysis is not possible now. Analysis rarely works properly when the market is rising, although those who are experienced and very expert can make some profit from their analysis. My advice is to trade with someone who is an expert in trading and is close to you so he will point out your mistakes. And you will get rid of many losses and most of your trades will be profitable.

I tried to say it myself, then noticed there were articles about them. (Source 1. Source 2.)

Mistakenly deleted an old post similar advised 'source 3'.
Source 1. (https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/difference-between-fundamental-and-technical-analysis/) Source 2. (https://climbtheladder.com/trading-assistant-interview-questions/) Source 3. (https://www.checkatrade.com/blog/hiring-guides/find-good-tradesperson/)

Edited.

I would like to add here that the price of BTC began to rise relatively close to the Halving-event in previous cycles, for example after the last halving in 2020. The arrow marks the halving on the 11th of May 2020:

https://i.postimg.cc/HxNbJTyM/screenshot-340.png (http://postimg.cc/ftxVpn5W)
Source: Coinmarketcap

The 12 to 18 months you mentioned refer to the ATH after the halving, which was actually in this time frame in past bull runs.

In general, however, one should not assume that it will be the same again in 2024 just because it was the case in the past time frames after the halving. The very high expectations could even turn into the opposite: if the rally does not occur after the halving, this could well lead to panic behavior ("we won't see an ATH this time!!!") and accordingly to (strong) sell-offs.

Well pin bars are good candle indications for rejection to and opposite direction of the market but apart from pin bars candles we have a whole lot of candle formations out there. On my own list the one's I use are: pin bars, hammer, evening and morning star, COW (cord of wood) this cow is not frequently seen on chart. But the ones I know the market makers uses are the ones I just mentioned.

The much of bitcoin bull prediction now is risky even though the price increase is gradually gaining ground but it is better seen after halving. To rely on what is happening with price now to predict an increase will be hasty because anything can nevertheless happen before the eventual bull. To predict the bull however, the bull pin bar candlesticks is more directional especially if spotted in a longtime hour like from 4hrs above.

As far as price action of Bitcoin is concerned there is no specific candlestick pattern just like the bullish pin bar you mentioned that would signal the start of the bullish trend before halving of Bitcoin, many investors had already capitalized on the price of Bitcoin as at November last year when it was around $15K+ and bought low as well as accumulate thus there isn't any need for them to wait for any candlestick pattern that would trigger the next bull run, meanwhile candlestick patterns is use mainly by day traders or swing traders for trading at a specific period of time or day they made an entry after the candlestick indicate a specific pattern and exit the trade after making some profits.

as you already said, no one should refer to previous cycles for what may possibly come in the market. there are various factors that will be different this time around. the users, stakeholders, companies that are into this market may have greatly increased already. though the pattern may be the same as we are eyeing the positive direction. however, we can't determine to what price level it will hit this time and when. it may not be after 12 to 18 months. but maybe on a shorter time interval. but whatever happens, one should be prepared with contingencies so as not to be caught off guard with their planned activities.

That's right, yes. A deviating factor could already be seen in the bear phase in 2022, for example: The ATH of the previous bull market was undercut for the first time, which has never happened in any cycle before. It is therefore quite possible that the motto "bulls start halving" will now also apply in this market.

If you look at the altcoin market over the last few days, you might well get the impression that the bull market is back in full swing. Personally, however, I am still very skeptical.

Honestly I never had luck with any of these candlestick patterns. I learned them maybe 10 years ago trading stocks and they were useless there also.

One of the most reliable indicators is perhaps the horizontal support and resistance lines. They are very good at spotting tops and bottoms and will do you more good than any other indicator out there including moving averages.

Previous Bitcoin cycles showed differences among themselves, but they remained on one constant, which is that the price rises in the months that follow Halving, starting from 12 months to 20 months. Hence, the increase will not occur in the year 2024, but in the year 2025, which is the last increase, from which the price begins to collapse.

Please read my comment some posts above yours.
The price started to rise about 6 months after the halving, the new ATH occured 12 - 18 months after the halving. So it is indeed very likely that we will see a rising BTC price in 2024 - at least if one wants to rely on previous cycles - which I don't think anyone should do.

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An indicator alone should not be used in order to make a prediction about the market, as most strategies will make use of several indicators in order to make any conclusion about where the market is headed.

However candle stick patterns are not only a very old way to do this, but they are not really effective, and this is because of the huge amount of subjectivity that comes with them, as a candle could mean one thing but if it is followed or preceded by other candles then the meaning of that specific candle could become something completely different.

If I saw about candlestick pattern such as a bullish pin bar, can provide clues about market trends, but is not a predictor or something that can be trusted. It's just tools when analyzing potential trends, try using tools such as moving averages to identify general direction, RSI to measure overbought or oversold conditions, and Fibonacci retracement to detect support and resistance levels. Because in crypto anything can happen and nothing is certain, this is not mathematics.

Maybe there is no special indicator to confirm this. But perhaps the Bullish market can be seen from the habits that have occurred in the market in the several periods that have occurred. And the market pattern has shown the same pattern every time before and after the halving. I'd rather see that. Because sometimes history always repeats itself. Even though it's not similar. But the pattern is always almost the same. And sometimes bitcoin halving also brings positive sentiment to the market. So the market will move positively and make it bullish. Because after I studied it again, it turned out that technical analysis was also taken based on historical observations and market habits. So even people who are experienced in the market but don't understand the technical aspects can still read where the market is moving. Because even though he is not good at drawing lines, he already understands the market movement patterns in his head. Because he is used to the market itself.

It is very difficult to determine when the market can get its bull run. Those who try to analyze market conditions will not get the right answer.
The market moves every day and we don't know the signs of an impending bull run. But when the price starts to rise rapidly, people tend to say it is a bull run situation and they will prepare their sell orders at their desired target price.
But you can observe market conditions to find out price changes and if nothing is stopping the price movement and it tends to continue increasing without stopping, that may be a sign of a bull run.
But again, we won't know when the bull run will occur. A bull run may come after the halving, which usually happens like that. So we should wait and prepare your bitcoins. If you see the price is able to break the $60k level as the last ATH, it means the bull run has come and will rise higher.

When it comes to predicting the direction of the market, it takes more than a single tool in the market to determine what shape or direction the market would continue for a long term. This can only come to full fledged knowledge after the event have formed and is maintained through weeks.
But before then, you can make inferences based on what is observed to have happened concurrently in the market.
This gives reasons why the pin bar couldn’t really stand as the best signaler for a possible bullrun but, you might have to observe that through serious of uptrends and using tools like the RSI to determine the strength and who is dominant in the market.

Since when predictions are risky? I mean they are only easy and free. Unless if you will also team it up with an action. That is the real ones that is risky because a prediction may not be 100 percent guaranteed to happen. But I still believe that when the majority is predicting something, chances are that it could come true, than those predictions who only have less supporters. Price can go on its own.

And won't you liked it if you see a good increase at an early time? I guess you do too since humans can get bored easily. And won't you like it if we will have a double bull run? Or its duration will be extended because we still have the halving? That sounds even greater isn't it?

Bullish pin bar is good at predicting that market will start going upward especially if there is a long wick because this candle indicates that demand is higher than the supply, or huge selling pressure but buyers overcome it. I will confluence it with volume indicator, if there's a huge volume bar and I see a pin bar, this will give me high probability that the price will increase. You can also add as your confluence the divergence. Divergence can also be found in RSI, Volume, and MACD.