Bitcoin Forum

One crypto executive predicted five months ago that spot Bitcoin ETFs would only be approved after Binance lost ground on its market dominance. Binance’s $4.3-billion settlement with the United States was the final hurdle before the country’s securities regulator approves spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), many industry watchers claim.

The settlement to Justice Department and Treasury compliance monitors for up to five years, allowing the agencies sweeping powers to keep the exchange in line with Anti-Money Laundering and sanctions rules, among other things.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has cited market manipulation when denying spot Bitcoin ETFs, and Binance’s market dominance had to take a hit before BlackRock’s spot BTC ETF application would be approved, according to a June X Twitter (https://x.com/Travis_Kling/status/1669719994379255808) post by Travis Kling, chief investment officer of Ikigai Asset Management.

Source (https://cointelegraph.com/news/is-binance-settlement-greenlight-to-spot-bitcoin-etf)

there is truth that most ETF applications prefer coinbase as the defacto spot price index. thus throwing competition off the cliff can solidify coinbase as a defacto stronger index

however the SEC has multiple requirements of strength and facilities and processes a ETF has to offer to "tick all the boxes" and get an approval
there are other things like there being no precedent of minimal standard barrier of entry requirement to start a bitcoin spot ETF. the SEC doesnt want to set the bar too low to let any boiler room scam offering start up. as that will make SEC liable. so they need to set high standards for the first approved ETF so they are not going to rush to approve one unless all the "boxes are ticked"

before binance guilty plea, ETF acceptability
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after binance guilty plea, ETF acceptability
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its moved the target. but still not yet a green light for a 2023 approval

The SEC might be more comfortable working with an American company than an exchange owned by another national. There is also the rivalry between American firms and their Chinese counterpart. Zhao Changpeng might claim that Binance don't have any connections with China but the US will never be comfortable doing business with anyone that has any tie with China.

I also suspect that the SEC will never approve spot Bitcoin ETF until it has put all crypto businesses under its control. This massive fine on Binance also serves as a threat and lesson to other firms for them to abide by all the draconian laws the government has put in place. Just as the FinCEN's proposed new regulation to criminalise Bitcoin mixers, I believe that this Binance drama is the pathway to the approval of Bitcoin ETF.

How convenient for the sec to not want to do business with a Chinese company when in reality these companies before operating in the United State must have gone through certain legal approval from the right authority.
If there is any  rivalry that is strong enough to alter business relationship, such opportunities should not be granted in the first place, where were the SEC at the initial stage when Binance start operating in the US?



I also have the same impression about the ETF judging by the recent SEC actions towards top crypto exchanges. Imo, the intention behind the Binance attack has a different target but surprisingly Binance and cz handled that peacefully and the crypto space is more matured.
It is a known fact that regulation is inevitable there was no need to make a scapegoat of anyone.

im sure scam bankman fraud(ex-FTX) gave some details to the SEC about binance as a bit of revenge, potential leniency for his own sentencing

How is Binance making a guilty plea changing the odds of a Bitcoin ETF like Blackrock (a sugar daddy company for the feds) of being accepted?

If anything, it should only improve the odds of ETFs from crypto companies - the legacy investment houses were never disadvantaged to begin with.

when you have 2 exchange power houses serving americans.
coinbase 100m customers  binance.com 120m customers

americans would take a view point of a INDEX from the most popular one serving americans. meaning the second option is deemed less trusted as a index

taking binance.com out of the competition makes coinbase instantly the powerhouse of price discovery. and thus ETF applications listing coinbase as the price discovery.. means they get a boost

though there are other things that the SEC is looking for to determine strong processes a applicant is using.. which is why its not a green light but a few notches up in the amber than previously

Sounds more like a conspiracy theory to me. But Americans being Americans, be might be more interested in working with an American company for spot Bitcoin ETF. I would say the Bitcoin ETF will be approved eventually. Blackrock will have to exercise some of its power within the US government.

Everything is bought and sold in the open market, even governments. Blackrock needs to find out the right price for SEC.

that might not mean approval it's only binance.us that the US has under control. but wouldn't Hong Kong (China) launch their own ETFs too, and use Binance.com as their defacto index?  both poles should be launching ETFs as it will be beneficial for all. no one should be left behind in all these developments.

they moved the date for the ETF decision to March 2024 so its hard to speculate when it will be approved. it looks like they wanted the ETF approval close to halving date.

I watched a small vide online where the chairman of SEC said that they have no reason to disturb or stop the ETFs approval, whatever happened to CZ was a revenge and I am sure he must have saw it all coming, he messed with the wrong guys since the bursted SBF, and now they got him good.

Years back the same thing happened to BitMex and this exchange used to be the top over all, the CEO did the same thing and he was fined and he was never locked up, they let him walk free, I am not sure they same thing will happen to CZ this time, the BitMeX CEO never made anyone his enemy, that's why I doubt that they will let CZ walk but we will see what will happen.

You are damn right the US doesn't wants an outside firm working in their area and also putting a great influence on a market whose they are judged of. I did not come to think of this point until this post, but it makes sense now and if it is valid then Kraken will be the next exchange because Kraken is also sued by SEC for unregistered securities.

If that's the case then they will be forced to comply with laws too otherwise they will be following the Binance pathway but I know they will comply with them as they have no big resources as Binance has. And they are providing opportunities to their own platforms like BlockRock etc.

Because this platform will bring more investors and tax paying customers.

Probably this topic is the 2nd one I'm encountering today by the OP, but I am sticking to the topic. I really cant relate Bitcoin's spot ETF green signal to the $4B settlement of Binance. Recently I've heard some statements from the SEC's side that they are pointing they have no reason to stop the approval.

That was nothing new from the 17th November's development,it was clear SEC has no issue with the spot ETF of the Bitcoin, and they are just looking for a good time why? even I'm not sure about it.

what it actually means
there is no ability anymore for SEC to just decline without reason anymore.. (the courts sorted that out due to the grayscale case,
however they can deny ETF that dont meet the criteria



out of the 12 not all of them do. so some can be denied
the november 17th event was not a deadline to announce any approvals
it was a date of communication with some etf's applicants where the SEC gave some advice to some etf applicants about some obvious issues the SEC found

I just find it amazing that the SEC would approve a Bitcoin ETF at all considering the Tether problem was never really addressed, there wasn't a proper audit as far as I can tell. If you check the Blackrock fillings they included on the pdf what's basically disclaimers about the risk of tetherings going on that could cause in loses for investors. So if they approve this they don't really care about that. I've always thought that if they approve a Bitcoin ETF, is because they have a plan to try to use it to control it in some way, probably via liquidity, then try to influence exchanges and miners into a Blackcoin of sorts.

the whole auditing of BTC vs shares is easy. thats why they said(months prior) to most applicants to nominate a custodian(to audit)

at the moment(this week) it appears the SEC is poking at the applicants about the inflow and outflow of shares vs other currency

however the next question is if brokers wanted to sell a whole basket of shares to close down a broker/agent or trust wanted to consolidate the number of shares. could the custodian then unlock the BTC to exchange btc to fiat to pay out cash to the seller..
(and what impact would 1-x baskets have on that said exchange market)

most applicants said it would be much easier to not do 'in cash' sale but instead 'in-kind' swap whereby the seller gets BTC.. however the SEC is against the idea of in-kind swaps from shares to btc.. for many other reasons..  SEC/IRS prefers shares for cash... but, with that said. the SEC wants to know the custodian can handle unlocking and selling baskets of bitcoin to offer large lumps of cash. without it pumping or dumping the market or causing liquidity issues for the custodian/exchange

they dont want to see a bank run, where coinbase(for instance of imaginary scenario) dont have enough cash to match the fiat value of shares being redeemed/removed

in short
if coinbase is the custodian and the exchange for a few ETF... custodianising the BTC is easy, but will coinbase have enough cash in the bank, to use for btc sells when redeeming shares for cash

The Binance $4B fine is more related to the status of the FTX claims than it is the ETF. I am quite sure that I've read that this $4b will be going toward FTX. Sounds ridiculous for the money flow to work like that, but go ahead and dig into that yourselves (or PM me if you want me to find the sources later)

The ETF is a long, bureaucratic process that should not expected to be finished in 2023....ESPECIALLY if institutions need to take the SEC to court to be able to have it filed, and I think we should be assuming this in my opinion. When FTX claims are done, then expect the ETF to be a step closer. The industry needs to be clean first...mtgox and ftx mess (and whatever mess is left or yet to occur with binance) is yet to be completed before ETFs go live - this is my projection of how things are going to be ordered anyway.

i cant find any info.. i read the court transcripts

all i seen is CZ personal fine is to go towards his lawsuit with the CFTC last spring.. nothing related to proceeds going to FTX

Maybe he's right but the Binance $4.3 Billion is never the green light settlement for Bitcoin spot ETF, it's the other way around and I sign about how they want KYC the main priority of all crypto exchanges while also forcing control of them so they are using the big fish in the game as an example to the remain CEX about the things they will experience if provide services outside their command.
Alot of crypto projects and exchanges will still be targeted to create panic and fud in the market before the approval of the spot ETF.

They're going after Binance, and sure, Binance isn't all squeaky clean, but the fact that they're operating in the U.S. might be a major reason why regulators want to cut down on their big market control.

The upside is Binance is willing to cough up the settlement money, so they can keep on doing business. It might dent their finances a bit, so their grip on the market might ease up. I reckon the regulators are getting what they want, but folks sticking with Binance as their go-to exchange will probably keep it going strong in the long haul.

I'm starting to believe that they are somehow related. This ongoing process of sinking and drowning Binance in a subtle way is a part of a larger scheme which is paving the way for the entry of the big traditional financial players in the game. The likes of BlackRock and other influential financial giants have the entire government machineries at their disposal so to speak. Binance and its violations are a hindrance. They have to be dealt with first and foremost. And when the market seems safe already, that's when the green light comes out.

Yeah it’s basically what happened when Bitmex went down and we got that huge rally because it gave the go ahead for the COIN IPO and the Bitcoin futures etf to be listed on the stock market for anyone to buy.

Bianance had too much control and they worried that if someone took over the market it could cause a massive destruction of the financial system because if many funds were leveraged on the bitcoin etf and it crashed it would cause massive margin calls and set off a cascade of losses.

Hmm, I do realize this but still, what I'm trying to say is they've cleared their position but still they haven't approved it, which directly indicates they just want to delay the time to endorse some of their terms & conditions.


Hmm, the 17th was not a deadline I know that but it was highly expected that maybe all of ETFs were going to be approved once, it was unreal but still there was decent hype.  Some can be denied but after a denial, they can fill out the application again on the same model as the approved one did.

not all 12 meet the same standard so the "all 12 at once" was never a decent expectation.

some wanted easy swaps direct to btc for share holders
some wanted easy swaps direct to btc for agent basket holders
some had share-fiat but didnt describe the process to close the basket of shares to unlock basket of btc to sell for cash in an effective way to cover the cash value of shares
some havnt described how to limit the occasions/ease of closing a basket of shares for fiat

there is still lots of details the SEC needs to thrash out with the applicants

but yes. once a applicant is accepted to meet minimal/precedent of standards the others will copy that template and re-file to fast-track their own efforts

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there are other considerations between the applicants

many people think if one is approved the agents will rush to buy baskets, sending the spot price soaring.
however there are different scenarios depending on who is approved

grayscale has 600k btc. they wont want to have agents join them to sell shares because thats competition. grayscale would want to sell their own shares before allowing agents onboard to add baskets of allotments of new shares.

however shares21(ark) only has 150btc. so if they are approved they will be advertising to get agents to buy btc to add baskets to their proposition

There is not yet a green light for the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF, but if it is approved, the price will skyrocket, as it did with the Gold ETF. However, the real question is, is it good for Bitcoin to be a part of an ETF? Was ETF approval good for Gold?

We will need to see another layer added to Bitcoin Spot ETF to increase gaining percentage among investors. Similar to Gold, it is somewhat stuck where it is. Of course, the supply cannot be measured as it can be with Bitcoin, but the $/Gold oz. price will push higher when crypto payment for Gold is accepted. Until then, we can forget that the price can double in 10 years. The same will happen with Bitcoin; it will skyrocket, but in the next 10 years, the price will establish a top, and it won't move with such force as it will when the ETF is approved (if it is). So, we will need another layer to keep pushing the price up as significantly as it was in the past.

I believe that it is not really a green light directly, but indirectly we could say that it's definitely not a red light. I can't say that ETF is looked at right now in a good manner and will be accepted, but I can easily say that ETF is not looked at like they want to reject it at all, and that's a good thing. When you have options of "doing good vs doing bad" and suddenly that turns into "doing good or staying same" that is an improvement as well, I think this is clear indication that it is not getting rejected, maybe postponed again, maybe fixed some things, maybe some issues, but it is not getting rejected and that's an important information for me.

I believe that as long as we have that kind of return, that means we would be able to actually get it approved one day, not rejecting and sending it back with some issues means that "fix these and come back so we can accept it" and not just rejection, that's a great improvement on where we are standing right now.

From my understanding Tether went through quite a bit of scrutiny by various US entities, and they fought lawsuits and they settled lawsuits in NY, and at the same time, they did not have any criminal charges, so I doubt that Tether has any real problems with collateral and/or audits.. They also had some pretty extensive runs on their bank too.. and they survived those bank runs pretty well, at least so far.

Tether FUD has been a popular thing since 2016 or so and maybe even since their introduction in 2014, but at the same time, they have grown stupendously, and surely there are likely some concerns from US status quo financial incumbents in regards to how Tether continues to gain market share and they are even going to start mining in South America with something like a $500 million initial investment into mining.  Tether seems to be doing quite well and surely scary for some folks who would like to control it some more, but my understanding is that they are frequently cooperating with freezing funds and maybe even restricting some kinds of access points.



This is not a clawback claim in regards to FTX, but instead various kinds of fines against Binance for its allowing of money laundering. And, so if FTX makes a separate claim to clawback, then I am pretty sure that Binance would fight that to the extent that there is even any kind of supportable clawback claim that would amount to up to 4 billion.. ..


There is no evidence to support that BTC is deviating from it's four year cycles.   Sure it could happen, but I would think that it is safer to presume the existence of a 4-year cycle rather than to completely ignore it and start to believe that BTC has some other force behind it that is yet to be seen.

Binance is bigger than that. When crypto will explode, the transactions on binance will also explode which will mean that their revenue will also increase by a lot. They can even best top companies in terms of profitability and yearly revenue. 4 billion is not going to end them or make them look smaller. You should always think about long term scenario. I also feel that current CEO might come back on the board in the future when matter has cooled down.

It is also being predicted by some people in social media that the new king of the cryptospace to replace CZ will be Brian Armstrong. There is a partnership between Blackrock and Coinbase already. The exchange was selected to be the custodian for Blackrock's bitcoin for their ETF. It will also not be shocking if Blackrock owns Coinbase stock and do everything they can to make Coinbase the most dominant exchange. This will certainly be good for their investment hehehhe.

Also on CZ, it appears that he has requested the judge to allow him to leave American jurisdiction and return to United Arab Emirates. The skeptical me is thinking that he will not return because UAE doesn't have an extradition treaty with America. He might also go to China and hide behind the powerful Chinese elders.

https://i.ibb.co/1XC3tQW/B3317-C14-5156-4-B4-A-A4-EB-6311-FEAE3563.png

Former Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao has opposed the United States government’s efforts to block his return to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to be with his family while awaiting sentencing following his guilty plea.

Source https://cointelegraph.com/news/changpeng-cz-zhao-us-government

They should just let him go back. I highly doubt that he is a flight risk. Look what happened with Arthur Hayes. He just got probation or house arrest if I recall.

SBF is in jail because he stole billions, CZ never stole anything. I don’t even think he will even go to jail most likely banned from trading or running any crypto exchanges.