Bitcoin Forum

Discussions around Bitcoin’s ETF approval have been intensified for a long time now and most likely, we will get positive news about it in early January any day now. Yaay.  :)
In case of a positive outcome, a Bitcoin ETF approval will possibly result in a much bigger spike than many people are expecting, in my opinion.
Right now, mostly Bitcoin holders or financial wallstreet experts are aware of what’s coming. Many regular investment people still don’t really know about / have heard much of an upcoming Bitcoin EFT but will know and read more about it, once news are out and advertising really starts.
BlackRock and Co. are really big players and advertising Bitcoin, a truly scarce asset, might result in an unbelievably big Bitcoin price spike (sorry for too much FOMO, I could not resist  :D).

Compared to what might come, we are still in relatively calm waters.

Of course, a rejection could result in a very big dump due to insurmountable disappointment as well.
As always: no investement advice because trading is very risky (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5436296.0).

Interesting and volatile days ahead!  :)

ETF approved: BTC goes to the outer stratosphere.
ETF denied: Short-term drop in price but long term? The macro is ultra bullish.

My greed is almost at an ath and it's just unfortunate that I don't have as much bitcoin as I'd like if this ETF is approved because it most likely would be. This is the most optimistic I've been of all ETF applications in recent years. I have my fingers crossed and I'm betting big on it.

The SEC's deadline to decide is 10th of Jan (for multiple ETFs).

I don't think the approval itself would cause any major jump in the price, it's largely already priced in at this point as everyone is already aware of what's coming. If anything, the demand (not just the fact they got approved) could have a fairly big impact on the price, but we're talking longer-term here. It's not like a bunch of wales is sitting on the sidelines and waiting for SEC. There are plenty of other ways investors could get exposure to BTC.

Short-term speaking, we could see some modest rise after the hopefully positive announcement and then we could see a drop as a lot of investors will be "selling the news".

There's a high chance that it gets approved. Most of what were lacking on previous ETFs are already fulfilled by recent applications, and so the SEC are in no position to deny that unless they want to change their rulings or dig deeper into technicalities just to reject the ETF. A lot of people and traders are banking into this, and I think we're in the clear in terms of overall market sentiment. I, however would not be confident that everything goes well. There has to be some trade-offs with the approval, or the other way around.

Got goosebumps when you've said that it can be out of our expected jump. I was just thinking of little bump for Bitcoin price that was failed to meet on the last bull run and yes, that's $100k. So it's interesting on how these giants can do to make the demand higher. They're not just simple players that we're having and if approved, this is no longer all about speculative market because they're in as well. I think that there will be that much change on the market when the ETF is approved and they've got a green signal from the SEC.

I agree. Most of them if given the approval, should give it credits to the past ones that have been rejected like with VanEck and SolidX.

I hope people are not expecting too much about this upcoming event, if in case this one goes thru.
Because being conservative won't give you too much trouble if your target price won't actually be realized.
But do remember, with or without ETF, the adoption is ongoing and further growing in numbers.
So should not be very reliant on this event whether you will invest on this market or not.

grayscale already has over 600,000btc so it not looking to take on any 'authorised participants' with their newly bought coins. so if grayscale gets approved they wont cause a massive buy-up

blackrock only has a couple hundred coin ($10m seed) and has announced jane street and JPmorgan as authorised participants so expect JP and JS to buy up some coin to make baskets each to add more shares to blackrocks offering

the other ETF applicants also lack seed funding to instantly offer shares so if they get accepted expect some bitcoin purchasing to then occur to buy baskets of coin

..
however if SEC denies grayscale we may see grayscale buy back lots of private shares and then use coin to become agents(authorised participants) of other ETF, again not affecting the market and infact reducing the impact of other etf approvals if the other ETF use grayscale as a authorised participant to not need new participants buying baskets of coins

i know ark21 is currently holding some coin within grayscale so would vote those shares back to coin and take them to ark21
(ark21 has ~$205m of gbtc shares)

The discussions now are mostly focused on spot Bitcoin ETF in particular, and one that is based in the US as other countries, even neighboring Canada, have already approved spot Bitcoin ETFs years ago.

As the judgement day is near, the market has already positively reacted. It seems the verdict is expected to be positive. Bitcoin has already touched $45,000. Depending on the SEC's decision, it could even hit $50,000 within the month.

However, I don't believe a "very bid dump" will happen with a rejection. The big bulk of investor's money are probably waiting for the green light. If the signal won't come, the money won't flow into the market. That's probably the biggest effect.

when people look at canada, they instantly ask 'WTF! canada actually has their own stock market?!?'
this is because no one internationally uses/cares about canada's market.
international trade usually sticks to:
    New York Stock Exchange.
    NASDAQ.
    Tokyo Stock Exchange.
    Shanghai Stock Exchange.
    Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
    London Stock Exchange.
    Euronext.
    Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

so with a few bitcoin ETF being added to NYSE and NASDAQ.. those ETF are going to perform best, and cause more effects
(note there are some that are using the less known CBOE)

Facing the most defining moment of the year with a powerful force that will change the fate of the way society views Bitcoin. I would hardly believe it if an ETF was rejected and then the market experienced a drastic decline because it did not meet expectations. But on the other hand, because this is a Halving Year, you can still sigh a little. Imagine if that didn't happen in the Halving year, maybe big losses would befall us. The expectation of ETF approval is 90% based on the track record since the initial proposal submission until now. However, there is no harm in anticipating by paying attention to January 10, our eyes will be focused on the SEC official decision.

So this month we are all betting big?

Yes, me too because we already experienced this before when some ETF filings and we experienced a dump also but as I recall we managed to recover after the dump. So the same will happen but it will be lighter as people already experienced it before and for sure they already know how to react.

We don't know when SEC will announce Bitcoin Spot ETF result but sometimes in this week, we will know about it.

I don't know they will approve or refuse those applications but the massive expectation is SEC will approve those applications.

I only think that even if SEC refuse those aplications, we will still have a bull year for Bitcoin. It will not like a death call from SEC for Bitcoin if they refuse applications.

Because of big impacts if SEC approve Bitcoin Spot ETFs, if you don't want to lose your bitcoin, don't sell and wait for corrections, just hold bitcoin you have, wait for halving and bull run. Bitcoin Spot ETF should be considered as one of recipes for your investment adventure.

For sure. If there is an approval this month (I'm not expecting approval but seemingly EVERYONE else is) price will likely immediately jump to over $50k.

Then sellers would come in taking profit and probably bring it back to like $48k or something but this would be a temporary dip. Then once the ETFs start operating (or once the firms running the ETFs start buying up Bitcoin leading up to their ETFs starting) that'll be billions of dollars of bitcoin being bought up so we'd like see another fairly quick $5k gain or so in price.

If there is an ETF approval in a week, we could see the price go from the current $45k to $55k over the course of a month. And with the halving coming up soon and if that builds ETF momentum as well we could see Bitcoin seeking out the ATH as early as late Spring.


If the ETFs are all delayed/rejected, as is very possible, Bitcoin would dump under $40k for at least a few days but that would just be a buying opportunity and within a week or two it'd likely be back to the $42k/$43k range its gotten comfortable in the past month.

Even after all this, you need to stay calm and keep buying bitcoin regular as much as possible as per your capacity.

Like when crypto soars because of the news and you start getting influenced by it, you will sell with just some profit. But if you are remaining invested for say 10 years, you will see life changing returns. That is the beauty of bitcoin and crypto investment. The longer you wait, the bigger is the magic that happens.

Man, I just hope that this big price pump we're talking about is going to happen before the SEC in my country bans Binance so I can quickly evacuate my investments into a safe wallet or maybe to an another exchange that's not yet on the radar of SEC. I'm sure my target price is likely to happen so here's to hoping that I get to see that and take profit before the drastic change in how many of us here in the country uses Binance.

There is a very high tendency that the ETF applications will be approved. My assumption is based on the fact that the SEC has had several meetings with these applicants and they have been mandated to review the application and make some adjustments such as the inclusion of Cash redemption mechanisms. The refusal of the SEC to appeal the court judgement that concluded that the organisation was wrong to reject Grayscale’s proposed bitcoin ETF, is also a positive indicator that it might be approved. Almost every Bitcoiner I have been privileged to interact with are optimistic that the SEC will not refuse approval.

Is it not better to move your funds out of Binance to a safe wallet immediately? I don't think you should take the risk of keeping your funds in a centralised wallet and hoping that it doesn't face any regulatory problems. You cannot predict when the government might come for them, so the best option is to move the funds to a non-custodian wallet and you can also sell it through P2P or a decentralised exchange. 

Ark doesn’t have those $200M worth of GBTC shares. They sold them all last week and bought $100M worth of Bito. No idea why. Maybe some conflict of interest since they are both launching an etf.

Jan 10 th is the assumed date but it’s only to approve all. But the final deadlines are far into. 2024. If it doesn’t get approved by mid of late Jan then we might see some sell off due to a period of etf delays for months like in the past.

ok i admit i didnt do much research in the christmas/new year period to stay uptodate, good catch

looks like ARK21 wants to do some futures contracts to play the market this week
she also sold shares in AMD, Coinbase, Cloudflare, Shopify and dozen others to consolidate alot of funding which i believe she is just temperarily housing in futures etf to profit from short term to then re-consolidate again if she gets approval for spot etf

The SEC has been silent for months, and can't they just keep postponing their decisions, one way or another, indefinitely? Are they required to give a definitive answer to BlackRock by a certain date, or can they just keep claiming that some additional documents are needed from time to time, and keep the policies they way they are, neither approving not rejecting ETFs? I agree that an approval would be a big win, with a solid price spike to be expected. As for a rejection, I hope that would only drive the price down for a couple of months before recovery to the pre-rejection level. The current situation of anticipation seems to work just fine, both for the SEC and for Bitcoin users.

I do not know whether Bitcoin ETF would be approved by the SEC. One thing is certain we would see as you mentioned interesting and volatile year. It is not only ETF but we will be seeing the next halving probably in the month of March or April this year. If a single ETF gets approved before halving then this would be the first year in the history of halving that we would notice a Bitcoin bull run. There are a few big economies that will be having their election to choose their next government. We would then see a stream of regulations getting approved in different countries. Overall an interesting year awaits all of us.

Bitcoin ETF approval excites me. Imagine being on the brink of a financial revolution and jumping in! This is a massive tsunami that might change everything. The Bitcoin price spike? The event will surpass most skeptics' predictions.

Mainstream exposure is powerful. Once the Bitcoin ETF hits the newsstands, Wall Street elites wont just talk about it. No, savvy investors and average people trying to get in on the digital gold rush will talk about it. New investment arrival? It will be as if a pool of unrealized potential is being unleashed.

There's always the "what if" of rejection, but lets move on. We're in Bitcoin for the long run, right? Its about riding high and low waves. Rejection? A momentary setback. Im excited for Bitcoin's bright future.

I completely understand the FOMO because this is the first time spot bitcoin ETF will be listed if it gets approved. Many top shots like Hashdex and Bitwise have started rolling out their spot Bitcoin ETF ads while they wait in anticipation of SEC's approval. I hope everything goes well and it gets approved because it will not only shoot the price of bitcoin, but it will help to create more awareness and adoption. But if it doesn't get approved, no qualms, some persons will be disappointed but we still have the bitcoin halving.

The ETF approval would be a great way to lead Bitcoin towards higher market prices. But this will make the cryptocurrency less decentralized as the supply will be concentrated in the hands of a few big industry players. Is this what the community wants? Bitcoin was created as an anti-thesis of the existing monetary system. It must keep bankers and governments away from it as possible. Not embrace them with open arms. By letting "Wall Street" enter Bitcoin, we are letting banks win.

Hate to break it to you guys, but I'd prefer spot ETFs to be denied by the SEC for the sake of decentralization/censorship-resistance. BTC used to reach a new ATH way before ETFs crossed the minds of many. So why insist on getting them approved? These are crazy times we're living into. The future can't be predicted, so lets hope for the best. :(

 I definitely agree with you Op, We might see Bitcoin do crazy in the price and perform more than our expectations because I believe there are a lot of people waiting on the sideline for the ETF to approved before they will buy.

Generally, It will be good for the price of Bitcoin because of that institutional funds that will be melting into Bitcoin and thus bringing more liquidity into the crypto space.

Bitcoin got a flash crash today over the rumors about the possibility of Bitcoin ETFs not going to get approved on January 10th and may be shifted to March 2023. And on the hand, I heard BlackRock started Buying Bitcoin today over their plan to buy Bitcoin this January and Bitcoin got about $5k drop in the price, I don't know which one that got the market bleeding.

You are right indeed, and like it's commonly said that what ever goes around, comes around as well, and that whatever has profit potentials, also have with it loss potentials as well.

In the ending of your post @op, you talked about what the possible rejection of the bitcoin spot ETF could cause to bitcoin and the crypto market in general, and I believe we saw an example of that today.

Matrixport came out with a report today stating or predicting rather, that the ETF won't be approved on January 10th as many people are anticipating, and the price of bitcoin plummeted and lost about 8% of its yesternight stroke early hours of today.

This goes to show that, if the ETF is later not approved on the 10th, then we all should make sure to reserve funds to buy bitcoin a very cheaper rates compared to its current price.

SEC approval of bitcoin etf might be a trigger for bitcoin to jump further in 2024, seeing that quite a lot of people are optimistic about it and pinning their hopes on it. maybe if the bitcoin etf is accepted by the SEC, it will be followed by many countries and make the price of bitcoin increase significantly, which is what many bitcoin holders want.

i personally don't really have high hopes for the bitcoin etf approval, because you know that having too much hope in something is not good, but i hope that the bitcoin etf approval can get positive results because it could be a good start for bitcoin this year and in the future.

Just to add on to your points, there is possibility of price increase if ETF is approved which is the market sentiment but people still seems to not learnt from the past mistake as just few speculations making rounds in social media about possible ETF rejection and we have already seen some dump in Bitcoin price I know it's temporary but still it's not a good sign that people are still paying heeds to fuds which shouldn't be the case.

Even I want ETF to get approved but regardless it should have any long lasting affect either ways.

I do not think that this rumor about ETF rejection is the reason of the Bitcoin price dump.  It is more on people cashing out to replenish their pocket after the holiday spending.  If the drop is caused by the rumor then why is it that it recovers easily to $42k after dumping to $40k?  If it is the rumors effect, it should stay on that price level or even drop down to the sub $40k level.

If ever Bitcoin ETF is approved, it will possibly synergize with the coming halving giving an overwhelming price increase of Bitcoin in the market.

Yeah I would agree that bitcoin is really going to jump once it's officially announced that bitcoin ETF's are going to get approved by the SEC.  There's some massive funds companies who will be entering the space, and with all the clients and funds they have to be able to add to these ETFs, it's going to be massive.  They aren't going to create them not to use them.  So buy as much btc as you possibly can now.

the expectation is that the last few cycles has shown patterns that the halving years price does not exceed the previous ATH
and its a year after the halving that a new ATH occurs

however ETF approval can accelerate the rise above previous ATH sooner..
however there is still real world market dynamics. such as if the least efficient mining cost is say $140k meaning everyone on the planet can mine for less(EG japan, hawaii, pacific islands have highest costs), then there is a natural tapering off of willingness to buy coin at a premium if everyone can mine for less. which means even in complete FOMO pumps there is still a ceiling to how much people would pay.

in short those shouting $1m by 2024, $500k by 2024 are stretching things far far far above the ceiling

Spikes are always a possibility, but how many people will capitalize on that? How many people sold at $69K 2 years ago? Almost everyone didn't, because people set a price target for themselves that was too high - $100k, $250k, etc. They listened to the likes of Saylor who hyped those ranges and instead missed out on a great deal, espcially if they bought back in the bear market.

Of course it can. I've seen some pretty good explanations of why and the main reason was: because this is a completely different market than it was in 2017 and 2021.
In 2017 there wasn't even a futures ETF yet and no institutional interest in bitcoin. Many people were still calling bitcoin a scam and there was an overwhelming majority of traditional analysts who either thought that it's a ponzi scheme, or a bubble.

In 2021 there was some institutional money flowing in, but the market was really unstable due to covid lockdown crash of 2020, followed by stimulus in the US. Then there was Musk pumping and dumping and China banning mining all in the same year.

This year we're watching a more mature market, a lot more mainstream interest, more political debates, US presidential candidates talking about it, Argentina supporting it and the biggest asset managers in the world applying for spot ETFs. The fact that it did not make a new ATH in the halving year is like saying that you've never been in a car accident. It doesn't mean you're not going to.

A good example of how these predictions based on past performance work is the bitcoin's price action in 2022. Bitcoin used to find support above previous ATH levels when it came down from a new ATH, but this time we crashed below 20k thanks to SBF. Maybe this time we'll go to 100k thanks to ETF ;)

you can actually calculate the ceiling by taking the hashrate. using it against the current generation asics to calculate how many asics are needed to perform that hashrate. calculate the total hardware cost and divide it down by 2 years and coin reward (/105000blocks /6.25) then taking the most expensive electric average $0.50 and calculate the hourly electric cost for those asics. and divide that by blocks per hour and coin reward (/6/6.25)
and that will give you the planet ceiling cost of mining
in 2021 is was $75k. and IF everyone calculated it and knew it, everyone would have been selling before $70k and some starting even lower than they did which would have caused the market to tap out below the number it did reach of $70k..
its the influencers that shouted 2021 will see $100k that wanted people to still buy even upto $70k so that they had someone to sell to. and thats their game

so if this year(ending december 2023) was $140k ceiling and you see influencers shouting $500k $1m .. understand they just want people to continue fomo buying even at $130k+ so that the influencers can sell around the $140k mark
(its not an original game, wall street influencers done it all the time n fiat investments that had a hard cap of stock valuation which wall street wanted to inflate to extreme numbers above it)

so if you knew even on the most expensive place on the planet everyone can mine for less than $145k and sell for profit.. how many people would want to market buy.. once you realise the ceiling and the market dynamics of buying/selling pressure you too can play the game against the players

It is what I am seeing now, everyone is expecting a lot with these ETFs and they're all thinking the same that it is going to exceed our expectations. That's how it is looking like based on my observations and that's totally fine, something that didn't happened globally although there have been some ETFs already in some parts of the world but they weren't even made a huge name at all. If you just want to be plain on this event, that's okay because the chance of getting a rejection is still there. Other than that, it's okay to expect a lot but it's not with the ETF but with the upcoming halving and that's where our assurance is built.

In addition, I've found a nice graphic few days ago, comparing Gold's ETF launch and where Bitcoin is right now:

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/01/03/snS4q.png
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/18w2r2j/gold_vs_bitcoin_etf_approval/

Of course, Charts can be drawn in many ways and in 2008 we had a big financial crisis, where Gold was a safe haven, so maybe overall situation is a bit different but we can also argue how much scarcer Bitcoin is, compared even to a hard asset like Gold.
After all, we have arguments in favor and against such a Bitcoin price movement but it's not impossible at all.  ;)

Seriously the expectations around this ETF of a thing is definitely getting out of hand there are people that think like if it doesn’t get approved the market will face a heavy crash. This ETF saga is even turning to something that the whales are even using to manipulate the market this days. Either they give fake news about it getting approved or same about it getting rejected. The ETF isn’t going to change the adoption rate of bitcoin and neither it’s price increase but will just be a catalyst to increase the pace of both been done. Hodl on to the bag till you see the real bull run or set a price tag and then take profit when that target is reached.

Here's the link to the Matrixport's Executive Summary:
https://www.matrixport.com/institutions/research/matrix-on-target/813?utm_source=BenchmarkEmail&utm_campaign=MoT_General&utm_medium=email

Essentially all they're saying is that the reasons for ETFs not getting the approval is Gensler still not liking crypto too much and that The current five-person voting Commissioners leadership is dominated by Democrats, who, generally speaking, are more critical of crypto.
This is absolutely nothing new and hardly any breaking news. If this is what caused a drop to $41k, it only shows how fragile the market is right now.

Sweet! and yes exactly. It may be different from gold's run but we see where it is all starting and we've got the idea on how it has been all over these years. There could be the different result prior to Bitcoin ETF's approval but the spirit is totally different and the excitement was there.
Like this crash that has happened, we now have an idea on how these big players want to take all of those Bitcoins that have been sold by people who panicked with simple news of speculated rejection by SEC. Now the thing for everybody is, how we're going to bear this feeling while we're waiting for the right time. Don't join the bandwagon of panic sellers, everyone so HODL.

Just landed on this thread.
I don't know why i missed this (any other relevant ETF-related thread around?)

The Matrixport report is just rubbish and pure play speculation.
On the very same day they issued a different report claiming there would have been a price jump to 50K due to ETF approval.
Rubbish.
Like the fake news a few weeks ago, everyone is trying to squeeze extra profit from this process. And I cannot blame them.

i laugh when they say gensler is anti-bitcoin
he spent a few years at MIT teaching students about bitcoin

he isnt anti-bitcoin.. he is anti losing his job if he gets things wrong and causes boiler room scam operations to be accepted as registered services

What is clear and I understand about the bitcoin ETF is that;

If bitcoin ETF gets approved - Bitcoin will be bullish as a result of the approval by SEC but not sure how long it will stay like that. Maybe we going to experience a double bullish trend, one from the approval and the second from the bull run market expected to take place.

If bitcoin ETF gets rejected- Bitcoin will eventually experience a decline but will get back to its bullish form after a short term because the market is currently on a bullish trajectory.

An ETF would pave the way for much more money to come into Bitcoin, so I expect a steady flow of money into Bitcoin after ETF approval. Some investors will maybe wait a bit until investing money in Bitcoin ETF's but long-term more people will join.
And maybe it'll help Bitcoin to become less volatile.

Even if it's delayed (and a delay is unlikely), an ETF will be approved sooner or later. Possibly BlackRock and Co. have already purchased some nice BTC before the recent price increase.  ;)

There might be another delay. The SEC has issued additional comments on pending applicants' for S-1s and according to Perianne Boring, this might be a delay signal.

Also, if there is a delay, January 10 will be the last of Ark Invest's schedule for application. If it is not approved by uncle Gary, this will be the first rejection from all of the applications. This might cause the market much volatility this month hehehe.



In an unexpected turn of events, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued additional comments on pending applicants’ form S-1s as part of the spot Bitcoin ETF applications. This came amid high hopes of an approval announcement anytime before the January 10, 2024 deadline.

According to Perianne Boring, the President and founder of the Chamber of Digital Commerce, the latest development is a delay signal from the agency.

Source https://coingape.com/us-sec-issues-comments-on-bitcoin-etf-form-s-1s-approval-to-get-delayed/

It is easy to say it's priced in.  But who really knows if it is.

If some do know it would be cool for them to let me know

Before now, I had given little/no attention to the ETF approval. I had classified it as a normal Bitcoin activities that were projected to move the market which failed finally. But, seeing the pre ETF approval impact in the market is making me believe that the jump will be massive more than anyone could predict. We could possibly see the highest jump in Bitcoin price, such that in the future such jump might not be possible.

What I and many other have thought, but in practice, massive adoption might not lead to less volatility in as much as bitcoin will become more scarce.

Well, it would definitely surprise me if it caused the next rally. I'm one of those boring cycle fellows, I hold certain that the next upward en route to ATH happens about a year after halving. That's when people suddenly wake up and misunderstanding economics of supply, but also when supply side push the same scarcity sell.

But halving is now in everyone's face, so it's not news anymore (so pricing in began even last year. So I'm open to different scenarios, even if I personally think the ETF theory of institutional force as been disproven several times. I still think retail power is underestimated, though, and ETF might actually bleed on to retail interest.

Either way's a win. A non-approval = crash = more stacking time.

P.S. 1miau, don't know how I missed this post, I usually skim over this section

Of course. A spot Bitcoin ETF would open the doors for massive adoption of the cryptocurrency. It's likely demand (and price) will rise to levels not seen before. Be aware though, this will concentrate the supply of BTC into the hands of a few players. Which translates into more centralization in the long run.

With Blackrock getting in the game, the US government will finally have "control" over Bitcoin (although not directly). Wasn't the cryotocurrency meant to be a challenger of banks and governments alike? This move will make banks win in the long run. I know we all want Bitcoin to increase in price, but this is not the way to go. Hopefully, the cryptocurrency will remain decentralized and censorship-resistant for the forseeable future. Who knows what's next in store for BTC?  :-\

Tomorrow will be the day of the days.  ;)
I'm expecting an approval but anything can happen...

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Let's don't hope so.  :'(
There have been so many rumours from "inevitably approved" to "ETF will be straight denied".

Looks like at least someome will be right here.  :D

Of course, I'm not doing any leveraged trading but 50k USD+ would be nice tomorrow.  :)

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+1
I wouldn't say no to accumulate a few more sats for cheap.  :)
Even if rejected, it might be not later than March to get approved. And Halving + ETF approval might be a bullish result as well.

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Probably due to the mixer ban and people commenting more in Gambling / Gabling discussion, it's really quiet here in Bitcoin discussion, at least compared to as it's usually.  :D

Regardless of whether the spot ETF will be approved today, it should be kept in mind that as far as I know, even if the ETF is approved, the SEC still has some mechanism by which it can delay the actual start of trading even for several months. If that were to happen, the uncertain period would continue, and it is possible that some companies could file a lawsuit against the SEC if it continues to prevent them from getting the whole thing going.

Some of the predictions I have heard are that a negative decision could cause a correction of 20% and even more up to $30k. Soon we will find out how many investors actually bet on today and how much money will come or go depending on the decision. Of course, assuming that Gary and the team manage to do what is needed, given that they have had some technical problems since yesterday ::)

The SEC has been quite silent after its "X" account was hacked yesterday. I guess it wants to keep everyone in suspense. With chairman Gary Gensler in-charge, we should expect the worse. Probably the spot ETFs will be delayed again, causing a huge correction in crypto market prices (especially Bitcoin). I think the excitement happened too soon, as BTC hasn't even experienced the block reward halving yet. Besides, the main Blockchain network is facing scaling issues. How can we expect to open the doors for Wall Street if fees remain high for prolonged periods of time?

If the SEC approves the ETFs, expect further congestion on the BTC network. Hopefully, developers would come up with a solution to tackle all of Bitcoin's problems. With BTC on the brink of mass adoption, it should only be a matter of time before it displaces Gold as the world's #1 store of value. Just keep buying and holding to see good results in the long run. ;D

I think people are expecting a decision to be announced in about 4 hours. We’ll see. There are a lot of signs that approval is imminent so you could make the argument that the market already has it priced in. I’m not sold on it being an immediate positive for the price, but I think it’ll have a lasting bullish effect for a long time. 

Hoping this isn't an intern negligence once again but I think ETF is already live on Fidelity Investment and here's the tweet about it: https://x.com/martypartymusic/status/1745129391737438367?t=EAbNKML38csXkBGQjqDHRw&s=09. Same here maybe we can see a potential upside again maybe $50k and then that's it, then alts would soar and ETF speculation will pass to ETH and other huge alts, just saying.

edit: not live but as you can say it's listed. FBTC is listed as well on WeBull.

but the fud yesterday is over and there was a dump already. gensler rejects this today is beyond cruelty he needs to be prosecuted for making those tweets, i don't think people really believe in that hack.

with just that tweet the price shoots to $48k, it should go beyond that price when it's approved. a god candle they say and probably going more than $50k in the next days. combined with halving, we're going more than $100 after halving.

Seems everyone out there expects an approval to happen and to be honest, I see this as a double edged sword that can hurt the markets... Imagine what would happen should this approval not happen, most likely a crash but for the sake of one's peace of mind, I won't keep my expectations high for now as I have seen this before :P

Btw, was watching some financial markets news earlier today on CNBC,  SEC account was reported compromised and claiming an approval ....would this influence the decision to come  I think Yesss...but guess the regulator can't make decisions based on emotions and we just have to wait for their official response...

That SEC hijack was nice, not spectacular, disappointingly. The day of days, tomorrow eh OP?

You know things are heating up when ETF headlines share the same breath as S2F(x).


Makes sense. I started my life on the forum in some godforsaken place but it really was spent mostly in Bitcoin subs until I became a hell lot more familiar with that side of utility haha (plus the fact I realised I was far less able to contribute than more learned members post 2017).

I do find even in discussion now there is a strong speculation tinge, less and less utility for some reason.

It seems that the rumor has caused more jumped to the market than the actual day when the Bitcoin Spot ETFs have been approved. In total, SEC approved 11 of it. Several sources reported.

• US SEC approves 11 spot bitcoin ETFs (https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-sec-approves-some-spot-bitcoin-etfs-2024-01-10/)
• US approves first spot bitcoin ETF applications for 11 issuers (https://techcrunch.com/2024/01/10/sec-approves-spot-bitcoin-etf/)
• The SEC said it has approved proposals for spot bitcoin ETFs on an accelerated basis (https://www.theblock.co/post/271324/the-sec-said-it-has-approved-proposals-for-spot-bitcoin-etfs-on-an-accelerated-basis)
• Spot Bitcoin ETF receives official approval from the SEC  (https://cointelegraph.com/news/sec-spot-bitcoin-etf-approvals)
• APPROVED: Spot Bitcoin ETFs to Trade on US Markets in Historic Milestone (https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/approved-spot-bitcoin-etfs-to-trade-on-us-markets-in-historic-milestone)
• SEC approves rule changes that pave the way for bitcoin ETFs (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/10/sec-approves-rule-changes-that-pave-the-way-for-bitcoin-etfs.html)
  

Wow, if the approval will be possible by tomorrow, it will be a great news for Bitcoin enthusiast. But you have to be prepared for any outcome tomorrow. Because the approval is a probability and not an assurance. Although the probability rate of approval to disapproval is 70:30.

Also, Bitcoin went down to $45k within yesterday and today. What are your thought on this? Do you think it is because of the Bitcoin ETF approval announcement? Am curious to know. Because earlier today i saw a tweet that 500 BTC was transferred from unknown wallet to coinbase.

I argue the opposite, modern markets tend to drool over the prospect of a favorite upcoming positive.  We far too much focus on the possible positives and under rate even the premium that should be there firstly with the idea itself as it may not even happen for sure and then even if it does occur is it really as big an effect as we imagine.
   Over time this entire year sure Im bullish but just this event nah, I fear far more all the drawbacks that come with government regulators sitting on top of anything positive for bitcoin out of the fear they have of its unbridled nature.     At least some of the positives are in the price right now, thats mostly what Im arguing as its not an especially hard point to make.

It's approved now, yaay.  :)
Now, let's wait how the positive outcomes, combined of positive publicity for Bitcoin, more money coming in and BlackRock + Co. doing Bitcoin ads will affect Bitcoin.
In combination with an upcoming halving it's really a bullish situation.

But we have to admit as well, that it looks like the premature announcement yesterday crashed the party big time.  :'(

---

I always feel like 01:xx:xx AM is still previous day for me.  :D

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The market's big disappointment how leniently the SEC handles its Twitter account.  :D

There was no price shock or massive price pump after the bitcoin ETF was approved.
bitcoin price is normal. the increase or decrease is also small according to the price increase on normal days. like there is no big news at all to shake the market

Because it has been rumored for months now and that's when we go up from 20k to 48k just recently. As I've said before and what others are telling too, this is more like a sell the news thing, the psychological level people is anticipating now is if it touch $50k or slightly higher than that and people will move back to alts. By the way, people now speculates on ETH or even an XRP spot ETF, probably these two will run hard next.

Yeah, I believe that. The adoption of bitcoin etf will be a milestone for bitcoin, it creates a new era of true acceptance of bitcoin. It will erase the doubts that bitcoin has gone through. The only conviction that I see that bitcoin etf will bring is of great significance and importance.
I won't get into the developments in value, but barring the SEC's damn X hack, there will be people who are upset.

I was considering that price could hit $50K to $55K level, even after the launch, but seeing how price reacted today already I've ruled it out now and took profits at $48k. I always considered this new "Bitcoin product" launch as bearish, despite the long-term bullish applications, such as every other launch to date; CBOE, CME, ProShares, etc. You could also argue that it arrived at a bad time, just as price was at a key resistance level around $48K, which is the 0.618 fib retracement level from ATH to recent low, but it seems more like price had already moved as far as reasonably possible and was sitting just under distribution zone.

Am more or less bearish now until either $30K or May, whichever comes first. 2023 was a good year. I'm sure 2024 will end well, but first price needs to cool off considerably.

It do even made a drop on slight on which this was unexpected on where it didnt really make out some considerable some gains on long positions but rather on negatives. Good thing that it didnt really make out some god red candle instead. Well, thats how market goes and it do behaves on which it could really that totally mess up overall of your expectations into something on which on the time were everybody is already that anticipating for some jump in price but it didnt really make out such effect or movement after its been traded on which it is really that totally a disappointment but well there's nothing we can do about it though.

Yes, that one was truly that unexpected considering that hack did really make out some timing before ETF approval on which it cant really be avoided that for people to have
those kind of doubts and having those kind of hesitation or even putting up 100% trust on whats going on here. Simply this one really shows up on how they do really manipulate prices
on which it is really that somewhat obvious but well just like been said that there's nothing we can do but to move on.

CME and CBOE launched though was at the peak of the bull run and it could have contributed to almost $20k December when it should have retraced already as the bull run has ended. Just like in 2021, the price didn't push as the highs have been hit in November.

And with today's news and when we thought that $50k is there for us to reach, the market didn't react and instead it made some early corrections as there are profit taking already. And so it could be that the effect of the approval is already price in at $48k and then we might see a heavy correction pre-halving.

There is some good news this year with the recent ETF approval and with the upcoming Bitcoin fork that will most likely drive the price higher than what we would expect.
I would say the ATH might be reached this year, by novembre in my opinion and it will reach $100k by the next year or two thought!

It may have already been priced in. BTC "pumped" all the way to $46k before the approval of the spot ETFs, so that's it. We'd need to wait after the halving to see what happens. I'm pretty sure BTC will go to $100k in no time. Exciting times ahead for Bitcoin and the whole crypto industry. One would hope BTC doesn't turn centralized in the long run due to massive institutional adoption.

Now that the SEC has given the green light for spot ETFs, I wonder what Bitcoin haters will say? I'm referring to Jamie Dimon and Senator Elizabeth Warren. With legitmate use cases for Bitcoin, they would have nothing to say or point at. :D

The price of bitcoin reacts a lot to it, but also it reacts quickly and for short span as well. I have always said that it is not going to be as big as what people think, on contrary to what OP is saying, I think it will make it go up a bit, but not like we haven't seen that type of up before. For it to be "bigger" than what expect, it should do something we haven't seen before.

The funny thing is, halving is coming, so if it ends up getting accepted in a few months, people will think that the growth we will have in the next year will be due to ETF, when in fact it's mostly the ETF one and not this, that should be the most important part. Ignore it all, and we could definitely end up with something that would be more decent.

Yep. We have good news about Bitcoin ETF. According to Gensler, Bitcoin ETF is finally approved today. This is surely great news for all Bitcoiners, we all expect for the bright future of Bitcoin and crypto industry as a whole. Also, the upcoming Bitcoin fork seems to be another matter to trigger the bullish on Bitcoin price. Everything looks happening as expected, no doubt that we will have amazing years in 2024-2025.

* https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/gensler-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023

It is too early to talk about the ATH. But with many good news, $100k is not impossible to reach sooner. However, I'm sure it won't be achieved before the Bitcoin halving schedule. I assume the Bitcoin ATH probably achieves in Q4 of 2024 at least. It seems to not happening very quickly because it needs time to return to $69k again.

They will say what they said before, because their opinion has not and will not change because the SEC, under the pressure of Grayscale and other companies, was simply pushed into a corner and had no choice but to approve the spot ETF. I have already quoted several times what Gensler wrote regarding their decision (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5481197.msg63485143#msg63485143), and here we must clearly distinguish that the law is one thing, and personal opinion is something completely different.

As for the approval itself, it seems that the expectations were much higher than what actually happened, and it is quite possible that investors will not show much more interest in the spot ETF than was the case with futures BTC ETFs.

It seems many have actually sold the news. I'm sure many insiders who knew in advance the decision of the SEC have already bought before it was released. It must be one of the reasons why the price had strongly pumped several days before the decision. And when the decision came out, the investors started dumping what they've bought.

Even those who didn't have reliable sources of the decision of the SEC but had clues that the decision is most likely favorable must have bought in advance and waited for the official statement from the SEC for them to start selling.

Just for some context here; analysts (from Bloomberg I believe) already predicted that the ETFs would be approved with 90-95% certainty, there was even betting odds based on the decision as far as I understand.  So I don't think this has anything to do with "insiders" who "knew" that the SEC were going to approve the ETFs, but simply what the market was generally expecting to happen that then occurred.

I also don't think this was about the days leading up to the approvals. Price had already pumped from $30K to $48K based on speculating that ETFs would be approved. I think what's more likely is that speculators bought Bitcoin up to $47K prior to the announcement, expecting higher prices. As soon as the launch occurred and price dropped, many started selling to avoid losses. Likely a lot of leverage involved etc...

Overall, the subject title of this thread would have better read "BitcoinETF approval will possibly cause much bigger dump than most people expect". Personally I only remain disappointed to see how many veteran Bitcoiners fell for this "god candle" and "moonshot" pump scenario. Sure I thought a 20% pump remained possible, but overall I always suspected price would initially dump rather than pump.

With the current market bear we are having, the price is going dip and more than expected, I have a feeling already, which is giving me notion that haven't the bull market happened right before the approval of the bitcoin ETF we are all talking about, or this is just a way to get more adequate preparations before the start of the bullrun, should we actually expect more bull market to come before the halving or we might remains bearish till the halving is done.

Classic reaction, the one big thing I would say is the greatest gains for Bitcoin have been longer term.  Its ironic perhaps but the spikes, the fastest moves often reverse and dont account for most of your gains if you are a holder.   The amazing and surprising thing to many is the longer term gains that hold over years, thats really what makes its such a well performing asset.   
  This reversal right now is par for the course, quite normal and a function of the volatility to BTC we are all aware of.   It has to even itself, its healthy to do so and markets require everyone at every order book price with volume to get filled really.  We're in a kind of pivotal place for direction, target downside imo would be 36k and I would remain bullish in that scenario.

Yes, the clues were already there even weeks before the official approval was released. The repeated requests for amendments and subsequent filings of these amended forms in short intervals were a clue that it would most likely be an approval. Also the repeated meetings with representatives from the applicant companies with short intervals as well could also be a significant clue. All this can't just happen if in the end the SEC would just unanimously reject the applications. And there's also the court's decision favoring Grayscale. All this must have contributed to the price increase.

But I think those who sold when the official decision came out didn't just sell because others are heavily selling. Those who sold heavily, triggering others to sell as well, are those who were already planning to do it because they have already bought much earlier and were already in profit. Selling the news was a nice exit strategy with a perfect timing.

If the title of this discussion were about a bigger dump following an approval, it would have been more interesting, and accurate.

Yes, this as well. Analysts weren't just pulling random probabilities out of a hat, it was based on everything that led up to the announcement date, as well as historically previous ETF applications etc.


Also very true I believe. Personally I had planned to sell the announcement or launch, as long as price was above $48K which was my target throughout 2023. My target hadn't been reached after the announcement, so had to wait until the launch, and it seems like I wasn't the only one either. Speculators had been planning to sell the launch for many months imo for a variety of different reasons. Most notably, because every other Bitcoin-product related launch (ie CME, CBOE, Bakkt and ProShares) has followed with a considerable dump in price, especially when they arrive at a relative peak in the market.

It's easy to think "this time will be different", but usually it's best to wait until a scenario actually plays out differently, before assuming the likelihood of breaking a trend... similar to halving & 4 year cycles etc.

So there actually was approval of multiple BTC ETFs!  I could have sworn I saw the opposite announced on Yahoo finance, but I'll be damned. 

As far as the expected price increase tied to the approval goes, was the reasoning that the ETFs would buy up a bunch of bitcoin and thereby lower supply?  I'll admit I've never traded ETFs, but the existing ones have to have real bitcoin backing them, correct?

My god, they own a lot of everything.  I don't know if any of you have looked at the top holders of any given stock, but BlackRock is always one of them.  I don't doubt they've got a substantial number of coins.  Makes me wonder if they're also holding shitcoins as well.

It's easy to say because if markets are acting efficiently, any available information ought to be priced in ASAP.  Of course, markets aren't always instantly efficient, but it's my understanding that eventually they get there and the asset in question arrives at its true value.  With anything in crypto, though, who's to say what the true value is?  These coins aren't companies whose balance sheets can be analyzed.  It's really just supply and demand as far as I can tell, and if anyone has any other theories I'm all ears.

A market correction was long anticipated after the "pump". You didn't expect BTC to keep rising at a non-stop rate, did you? With due time, BTC will be able to get past its ATH of over $69k per coin. If many investors are considering Bitcoin to be "Gold's sucessor", then its current market cap is nothing compared to Gold's. Putting it in-par with the "yellow metal", Bitcoin would have a price of around $700k. That's close to the predicted price of $1m per coin. Just wait until 1-2 more halvings for this to become a reality.

With spot ETFs setting the stage for full legitimization of Bitcoin, we can say the industry won't be going anywhere soon. We'd be considered early adopters of the future of money. Who knows if BTC goes as far as replacing Fiat (or even Gold) in the long run? :D

However, we cannot underestimate on what might be coming soon hehehe. According to some articles, Blackrock bought 11,439 coins in only 2 days. It takes bitcoin miners approximately 15 days to produce this much coins, I reckon. Ask as miner from the community if this is correct.

Blackrock is also speculating on an ETF for Ethereum and if you listen to Larry Fink's interviews, it appears that he is very much similar to someone who is new to the cryptospace who is in it for the technology heheheheh.



Following just over two trading days for the newly approved investment product, BlackRock now has 11,439 BTC worth more than $497 million for its Spot Bitcoin ETF. Indeed, the asset management firm iShares Bitcoin Trust had an undoubtedly successful inaugural day.

Source https://watcher.guru/news/how-much-bitcoin-does-blackrocks-spot-etf-hold

The bitcoin ETF is a very nice innovation which normalizes bitcoin investment to the traditional investment patterns in stocks and bonds and you can buy as many shares as you wish from a huge portfolio of bitcoin held by the issuers. Very lovely strategy to increase the bitcoin adoption and investment by the general public removing the complexities of direct bitcoin purchase, thereby making it simple and easier to engage. The good thing is that bitcoin controls the market and its price determines the prices of such stocks. Its more like taking bitcoin adoption to the next level.

The ETF has been approved now, and am positive about it because it will increase convenience for those who are reluctant to adopt it for fear of the complexities of acquiring it on the blockchain and alsoThe ETF looks very legitimate and regulated as its approved by SEC itself. I believe its also very much tax efficient, but I know these big players will charge management fees on investors and I just hope it wouldn't be yet another form of high transaction fees that will demoralize  bitcoin ETF investors.

That is what the extra money coming into the market will be like, we already have most of the youth already getting acquainted with bitcoin anyway, we need some of that old money that goes into stocks to start going into bitcoin as well.

When Blackrock has their ETF, they will push to sell it to everyone, and considering they have all the elites money with them, trillions, they could spare just a few dozen billions into bitcoin which would be insane investment overall and we would go up. They are not going to buy bitcoin themselves, that 78 year old with a billion in the bank? They ain't ever putting that into bitcoin, BUT they could put some of it at Blackrocks ETF, which they will use to buy more bitcoins to cover it and it all helps us.

It's very funny how the price went up to 48K when Bitcoin ETFs got approved and then went down to 42K and still struggling to rise. I was expecting opposite and got opposite and you know what's even funnier? After the early twitter post, I opened short interest and I was hoping that they would delay the official announcement because of this shameful accident or something like that and I got shocked the next day when they officially announced ETF approval but I still didn't close my futures short position and I am dying in laugh that I gained profit via that short position. I'm closing it right now, I don't want to risk anymore, sleepless nights sucks.

Spot ETFs are backed by real Bitcoins.

BlackRock and Vanguard hold the voting rights for the shares the index funds own. Not only they are the top holders but they have a huge influence over everything they hold. I believe SEC approved ETF because blackrock wanted it, that' how democracy works, isn't it? :D

I'm quite positive that the ETFs will have a positive impact on Bitcoin's price (in a longer run) but we should stay realistic and not get carried away.
Any "old money" investors that wanted exposure to Bitcoin, could've done so long time ago without spot ETFs. And the "elites" will not be throwing billions into BTC just because it's now available as an ETF. If they made decisions that way, they wouldn't be elites in the first place.
What ETFs do, is to make it more convenient for unsophisticated investors to get in + make it possible for some types of regulated funds, such as retirement funds to offer that option to their clients.


If I'm not mistaken, they both now offer proxy voting options to their clients.

BlackRock has a lot of money at its disposal to "pump" Bitcoin's price all the way to "Mars". What's happening now is the "buy the rumor, sell the news" event. It's all manipulation to "dump" market prices and buy BTC at a bargain. Do not underestimate these giant institutional investment companies (BlackRock, Fidelity, Franlkin Templeton, etc). Just wait until the halving comes in, and BTC will never go back below $40k ever again. People just want quick results with their Bitcoin investment. But that's not the way it works.

You need to have "diamond hands" to be able to succeed in crypto. No matter the FUD, you can rest assured Bitcoin won't be going anywhere soon. Maybe it will go as far as replacing Fiat (or even Gold) in the future? Just my opinion :)

Am I missing something, or we are lacking an “ETF inflow observer” thread here on the forum?
I have been discussing Grayscale stuff in my thread
Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask! (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5256529)

Is there a thread where we discuss all the details of the ETF shaenigans after approval?

Yes many people thought after Bitcoin ETF approval it’s price will bigger Jump but we are seeing Bitcoin price decreasing. I think it happening for short time. I also think it has big impact there has no doubt. Within short time Bitcoin price will come farrowed. Now Bitcoin price is low i think it happening for bigger jump.
And after sone days Bitcoin halving will happen then Bitcoin price will increase more and more. For big pump bitcoin now low. Any time Bitcoin will pump hardly many people expect it. I also think that.

Exactly what regulation is forcing Blackrock (or any other institution for that matter) to actually back the etf units being created as a result of the demand inflow for ETFs imminently? How do we prove that the demand to date is owned 1:1 in BTC by Blackrock and other institutions? Is there a time requirement for the demand to be reflected? Every quarter after an audit of holdings perhaps? (Genuine question ... I don't think there is one, but I haven't taken a deep enough dive into the paperwork yet).

I believed this is something everyone overlooked. I thought that the ETF would be denied on the grounds that demand/holdings backing etf demand were not transparent, and yet here we are once again, just like 08'....investment vehicles that are built on opaque foundations. I'm sure this is going to end terribly for Bitcoin ETF buyers, and remind the Bitcoin ecosystem why Bitcoin was created in the first place.

I'm not saying it will cause permanent detriment but this is sure a new ball game that I am sure will bring new volatility that will confuse the crypto world over the next 1-3 years.

In my opinion, we should never trust the institutions. It's part of the reasons Bitcoin exists after all, right? If one thinks that institutionally backed spot ETFs will send imminently send Bitcoin to the moon, one may want to rethink the rationale behind that thought...

I hope to see the Bitcoin bull market in a few days. The Bitcoin market is very dumping now. We can use this time for investment if we want. If we can buy and hold Bitcoin during this dumping, when the Bitcoin market will pump a lot  I will make a profit. But I am a bit worried about the Bitcoin market. I am worried about whether the Bitcoin market will dump or pump in the next few months.

It could be, "buy the rumor sell the news", and probably this is what happened in the market because as soon the the approval was finalized, price did spike. However, those speculators who says that we will have positive outcome may sell after the news, leading to a temporary price decline.

I'm also hearing in defense of the price dump to $39k, that "ETF Approval Priced In", but I have to disagree. The positive impact on the price has already occurred leading up to the decision? As much as this market is already huge, but there could still be some manipulation from whales and perhaps that what we see as well.

Price movements includes a lot of factors, pre or after approval. Just like what we have seen, we are slowly gaining again, it might have been due to this news again as investors expectations have matured. Or at the very least, bitcoin market as we  known is volatile, and short-term price fluctuations (dumping after the approval), should be considered in the context of the broader market trends and dynamics.

Definitely on that way or the thing happened recently on which it did turn out on buy the rumor sell the news. For those who do get in line with this sentiment then they did make out those good decisions as the market did really make out such movement on which it did really cause up that negative into those who do make out those long positions considering that ETF is going to be approved out. High chances we do know on which lots had been anticipating for the price to be going up but we've seen the different thing on which did end up on the other side of things on which to those who had been able to benefit out
on counteracting on the things that supposed to happen. This is why it would really be that best that you should really know on how to ride on yourself with the waves.

Sentiments and fundamentals could really be that decieving sometimes on which it might look that positive but the market turns out to be on negative state and we've been able to
see it recently.  :)

Institutional investment companies can provide a BTC address with their holdings for transparency. Just like Bitwise did. The fact the most aren't doing it is very suspicious. Maybe they're afraid their schemes and/or tactics will be visible to the public? They could be manipulating the market under our noses.

With BlackRock beginning to accumulate a large portion of BTC's supply, we should expect the worse. It's likely BTC will become centralized in the future. People are blind enough to believe spot ETFs are a good thing just because it promises to boost market prices in the long run. But what they don't realize is that this move gives more power to the government. The future of Bitcoin is uncertain, so we can only hope for the best.  :-\

That's right, and I thought that the SEC would at least be smart enough to be able to have deduced this for themselves as well, prompting an ETF denial while more regulation enforced transparency. Either the SEC is privately lobbied/corrupt, or they're just plain ignorant. I wouldn't be surprised if both were true, however let's just say they're uninformed and ignorant.

I think that it's almost a certainty that these large firms are manipulating the market by soaking up demand for BTC and dumping what they accumulated in 2023 - which probably outweighs what is coming into the ETF. ETF buyers buy high, institutions sell on spot markets, ETF buyers sell after getting rekt, institutions rebuy...speculative but seems like the play at course.



BlackRock and other institutions will need to do some serious damage to the BTC price to be able to shake out enough holders to start to control it in an economic sense. If they want to control the ledger, they'll need to start taking a bite into mining (if they aren't already through subsidiaries of their massive umbrellas)

I thought that they have released their Bitcoin addresses to the public? But I could be wrong though. Nevertheless, we know that everything can be seen in blockchain, and it's just a matter of time that those investors or speculators will have to find out what is the addresses of this big institutions and then track where in it going, if there is manipulation as we have suspected from almost $49k->$39k and then buying spree.


The argument is that Bitcoin could be seen as legitimate by other government, groups and those who are skeptics on it. With Bitcoin Spot ETF approved by no less than the US SEC, it give credibility to it and who knows, who or what entities are going to invest their huge money on it. It's that Bitcoin could really be defined as asset per se with this approval. So it has pros and cons and it depends on how we see it.

ETFs have to issue shares backed by physical Bitcoin. Breaking this equivalence would imply an agreement with custodian and Sponsor firms breaking the prospectus rules.
This also would be a criminal offence very easily verifiable by the most inefficient authority.
Definitely a bad plan.

There are a lot of people right now who are really focused on closely monitoring the whole process.
I strongly doubt they could ever plot an exit scam like this.

What I described is not an exit scam, it"s marker manipulation....
- ETF buyers at 40-50k: Do not buy the physical bitcoin (or, back it with existing holdings).
- Use excess holdings to reduce the price to 20-40k, at which point honour any sells to compound the selling effect and pickup coins previously demanded at 40-50k for discounts nearing half the price
- Profit...

There is nothing stopping institutions from doing this. No government, no agency, no regulation. Yes, it's unlikely they'll rug. However that isn't at all the point. The point is that there's nothing keeping these institutions in line with exactly how spot demand should be translated (that is, 1 unit bought, 1 bitcoin bought simultaneously).

BlackRock and similar institutions have a lot of money to do whatever they want. It's likely they're already involved in the mining process. While owning 51% of the BTC hashrate seems difficult, it's not impossible. All it takes is for BTC to experience a prolonged "bloodbath" in market prices for these companies to control it. Whenever that will happen or not, is yet to be seen.

As long as there's a community fighting for decentralization, BTC won't be going anywhere soon. One would hope it will render Fiat currencies obsolete in the future. Just my opinion. :)

Blackrock for sure it is not interested in mining. Fidelity, on the other hand, for sure owns some mining farm:

Fidelity Investments Is Mining for Cryptocurrency (https://futurism.com/fidelity-investments-mining-cryptocurrency)



Fidelity is quite different from other ETF issuers, I think their take on bitcoin is much more genuine.

They have their clients' money that they can't just throw around - and all those trillions of $ they manage were never meant to end up in Bitcoin as some imagined. Especially not in BTC mining, which will become less and less profitable, considering that after the next halving, only about 450 BTC will be mined per day, which is literally just dust compared to the 19.6 million BTC that are already in circulation.

In addition, in less than 10 years, 99% of all coins will be mined, and I believe that even before that, many miners will move to some new, more profitable projects.

Sentiments maybe, but I think if we will just stick to the fundamentals, then we might see what is really going from the background and as I investors we should learn how to read between the lines, from FOMO to market manipulation and buy the rumor sell the news. But right now, since the announcement, no big movement but at least the price has gone from the dump of $39k to $42k-$43k at the start of this month.

So not expect a big jump, maybe we can see the price going on another sideways. Of course, huge money is going to flow into the market. This institutions client are big, worth billions of dollars combine and so it's a big possibility that the ecosystem will thrive in the long run or at least we should observed right after the block halving this April.

Mining will only become less profitable over time if market prices decline or remain as is. But it's very unlikely this will happen, especially when demand is rising at a very fast pace. When there's limited supply of coins and high demand, prices should go all the way to the moon. It will become more difficult to "attack" (or control) Bitcoin with 51% of the hashrate since costs of doing so will rise over time. What BlackRock and similar entities can do is accumulate a large portion of the supply. But they will never (hopefully) be able to control the network itself.

If things get tough, developers can simply increase the supply or agree with miners to censor/block institutional investment companies from using their BTC. It all comes down to consensus. No one knows what will happen in the future, so lets hope for the best. :D

I would say "mining becomes less profitable" was a thought before every halving, but the reality is that if the price of bitcoin goes up, then mining it still stays profitable. So, if you mine 1 bitcoin per day at 40k dollars per bitcoin, and if you mine 0.5 bitcoins per day when it is 100k, you are making more money with the second one, while you mine less bitcoins.

This is why after every halving the price usually goes up, to make sure that miners keep going strong and protect the integrity of blockchain. I am not saying blackrock made a great decision, nor will they just make a mistake, they are just diversifying their portfolio and if people are fine with every single stock they get into, they should be fine with this one as well, not riskier than some other investments.

Only IF the prices go up over time. But what if market prices go down and stay that way for a prolonged period of time? Then BTC mining will become less profitable than what it used to be. History has shown us that BTC's market prices increase after each halving. I'm hopeful the upcoming halving will have the same effect on market price. This one will be even bigger than before because of the spot ETFs approval by the SEC.

Maybe BTC is bound to go to $100k soon? It would be unwise to buy BTC during the bull season. The moment is now to accumulate as much BTC before it "explodes". As long as you don't go crazy putting all of your life savings into the cryptocurrency, there should be nothing to worry about. Just my thoughts ;D

ETF or not it wont matter on which this market is still that unpredictable, it is really just that this moment we do have these institutions are really that getting involved or simply institutional funds are flowing into.
We cant really tell that the recent surge of increasing prices is the result of it or really just that still that ordinary day in crypto on which this has been that typical or standard.
Some saying that this is the result of ETF approval but we cant be sure, come to think that we are already heading on upcoming Bitcoin halving event on which it is really just that having those positive
sentiments in regarding about those price potential movement.

Now that we are heading on Bitcoin halving event then we are already that near on that so called BULL RUN on which all of people here on this space had been anticipating or really that expecting.
Jumping prices would really be just that next in line. We cant really just know on whats the exact date for this one. This is why speculations would really be flying or floating around.

I was finally able to get hold of the infamous Bank of America study that stated the 118x inflow multiplier to market capitalisation.

https://talkimg.com/images/2024/03/03/ynZQq.jpeg (https://www.bitcoinstrategyplatform.com/files/boa.pdf)

According to my back-of-the-envelope calculation, the current multiplier is way lower, but I get this number recalled almost daily.

If the price went down (consistently even after halvening) you will then have less miners but also less difficulty, the system does adjust so it should be ok as it has in the past.   The jeopardy for miners is they are stuck with unprofitable programs of planned mining on hardware already paid for, Bitcoin blockchain itself is not subject to that loss but the people who would gain also risk losses which seems fair enough a scenario.

I wish I had carried on mining for years after it become non profitable because as we know now it was fine if you held on.   That was an unknown and risky, I did mine onwards in that way a little bit but perhaps I should have been more determined, retrospective is a killer.

We had the ETF Jump and its ironic sell after, now its gained back more then the first gain and people hope for more but its the continual positive effect I would focus on here over these jumps.   I hope that larger picture is true as we can pullback further from here but an underlying trend up would be powerful if repeated over 12 months after this news, it could be that big Im not sure yet.

What ever pump bitcoin is having now is strictly because of the ETF approval as you said it has had quite the effect on bitcoin and bitcoin has never once broken it's cycle of pre halving dip, but the way it is going now we might not have any of that untill a new ATH or even quite after, ETF has caused quite the increased demand for bitcoin and most holders are taking their asset if the exchanges to self custodian making the available supply of bitcoin on exchanges even lower, if bitcoin is scare and the demand is high we well know what to expect.

Numbers went up today: 10B in trading volume.
Absolutely bonkers for funds that have been launched less than two months ago:
 
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/03/05/ytlwC.png (https://twitter.com/ericbalchunas/status/1765121689036427654?s=61&t=bgH3gg0TPI0Bm1xkQlAj2Q)

For sure the excitement over the ATH played its part, but this is something bigger than expected.
Let's wait for the (in) flows number.

That's my thought over time but still have some doubt, I observed that bullish effect will take deep impact soon.

Numbers go up in the ETF have unpondered consequences:

Bitcoin ETFs Are Starting to Compete With S&P 500, Says Michael Saylor (https://decrypt.co/220434/bitcoin-etf-versus-gold-sp500-index)



Maybe it's an overstatement, maybe not.
For sure, they have been competing with GOLD, as they have been sucking AUM from Gold's ETF in the past weeks.
Competing with SPX ETF might be premature, but as well, they are competing with stocks as a store of value.

It has always been the nature of Investors to increase the value of their bitcoin holding once they've got to learn about some promise potentials ahead in the nearest. Maybe it could be some coats of excitements and greeds. Haha.
While the ETF approval is on expectations, a lot of Investors has already set up their places of relevance utilities 😆

The next hot topic in the space is the Bitcoin ETF launch in Hong Kong in the coming weeks.
Given the sheer appetite for Bitcoin by Chinese investors, huge demand is expected.
I don't know actually how much demand has been going to be channeled by these instruments over there, but I read an analysis that it could be fuel toward 100k.

I agree! It's no longer a rumor anymore. This could be a big deal for Asia in general. $100 mark soon!

The involvement of institutions has convinced me that Bitcoin will be much better than what we see now. Hong Kong approval would be the first Asia continental ever cryptocurrency ETF approval. I heard some rumors about London and South Korea ETF approval.

More information source here on X  (https://twitter.com/GSR_io/status/1778863617753973220)

Volatility has a dip connection with Bitcoin. While this volatility may not be readily accepted by many, it is commonplace for those who understand the Bitcoin relationship. There is no specific reason why Bitcoin will rise or fall in value. The price of Bitcoin can increase or decrease due to any number of reasons such as business, economy, legislation. Those who are interested in investing in Bitcoin should not only be most excited about Bitcoin's upward momentum, but also be aware that any time the price of Bitcoin could take a massive dump. There has been no negative news in the crypto space in recent times but the crypto market has seen a major decline due to the financial issues. As an investor there is no option to be patient in this situation. Bitcoin is a decentralized digital asset where people's interest  will continue to grow.

Rumor is Hong Kong ETF could be approved tomorrow.
Market impact is dubious, as ETF market is tiny there when compared to the US.
Maybe the avid Bitcoin buyers from mainland China, will flock this new government friendly alternative and it will be a blowout.
Who knows?

Yes. Spot ETF approvals are starting to reach the world. It won't be long before most countries go all in Bitcoin. This will create a supply shock, effectively rising market prices over the long term. A win-win for both retail and institutional investors.

I hope these moves don't compromise Bitcoin's decentralization in the long run. I understand network consensus is completely independent from economic holders, but concentration of supply among a few brings inequality into the system. Imagine what influence corporate giants will have over BTC miners with their large holdings. I'm just speculating here. We can't predict the future, so lets hope for the best. :)

I wouldn't be so worried about this.
Holding a large amount of bitcoins doesn't make you feel heard in the community. Bitcoin is not a PoS shitcoin.
There is no way that ETF issuers can influence bitcoin development because they hold a large stash of bitcoin.
Of course, they could pay to access the Bitcoin development team, but this would depend on their economic power, not the fact that they hold many bitcoins.

Of course not. Bitcoin may not be a PoS coin, but economic holders can have an impact over network consensus. Especially if they use their money to acquire a large portion of the hashrate. Firms like BlackRock, Fidelity, and VanEck are filthy rich. What makes you think they won't buy companies with mining farms (or even make their own)? They can even pay for the development of Bitcoin Core and steer the project to their own direction. Even if the community decides what gets approved or rejected on BTC's codebase, that won't stop greedy corporations from getting what they want.

The idea has always been to encourage self-custody of BTC among individuals to prevent third-parties from monopolizing it. That's what governments want (especially the US government). They want institutional investment companies to buy all of the BTC so they can control it. People will be forced to comply with KYC just to get access to Bitcoin. Just because ETFs promise to "pump" market prices, doesn't mean it's good for the future of BTC. Hopefully, people will understand this before it's too late. :D

And so they did,


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-approves-spot-bitcoin-064416209.html

And trading begins on Monday April 30, unfortunately though, it is not offered to Mainland China. As obviously, we all know that the Chinese government is no longer Bitcoin friendly. But we will see how big it will be for Hongkong when it official opens at Monday, we will find out if it will have a huge impact on the price of Bitcoin or not.

Does everyone remember the news on the anticrypto CEO of Vanguard that retired? There were very smart people in the forum that argued that it was not a retirement. They speculated that he was being replaced by a more procrypto CEO hehehehe and it appears that it has recently occurred. Vanguard hired former Blackrock executive Salim Ramji as their new CEO. He was the executive who was in charge of of the department for Blackrock's spot ETF for bitcoin.



Vanguard Group Inc. named Salim Ramji as its next chief executive officer, tapping the BlackRock Inc. veteran to succeed Tim Buckley and become the first outsider to lead the firm famed for revolutionizing investing with the index fund.

Source https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-14/vanguard-appoints-blackrock-veteran-salim-ramji-as-next-ceo

Weekly recap:

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/05/18/1fI7a.jpeg (https://farside.co.uk/?p=997)

We had inflows only, if we exclude Tuesdays GBTC.

This is reassuring, wondering if the outtflows from GBTC have really stopped or it is actually a pause only.
 
The big picture looks reassuring as well:

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/05/18/1f3Uo.jpeg (https://x.com/carpenoctom/status/1791657304699334985?s=46&t=ybCp3ydjDJA_wR_uVxrEgA)

Remember that slow and steady wins the race!