Bitcoin Forum

Hi all,

You might know me or not, I posted Bitcoin Price charts and my prediction was $25k to $42k (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5476595). And now that is complete, we are onto the next step now.
After going up by like 200%, Bitcoin is taking a bit rest. It's normal and it might be the last discount you will get on Bitcoin. ;)

https://talkimg.com/images/2024/01/23/kGGQo.png

In this chart, you can see two Fibonacci levels:
0.33 - $33k
0.66 - $22.9k

These two are the supports for the current price correction. If Bitcoin goes below $33k, It will surely touch $22.9k, no questions asked.
And if it starts bouncing up before closing a candle below $33k, Bull run continues.

As I mentioned earlier, this will be the last Bitcoin correction.
My Final ATH Price Prediction for Bitcoin - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5463885

Cheers!  :D

I choose $33k, not $22.9k.

Price like $22.9k needs a big shock in the world and all markets have very big drops, not only this cryptocurrency market. In 2020, it's Covid pandemic but in 2024, what will be able to cause the same global market drop like that?

World War III? I want to see cheaper price of bitcoin to use my small money to buy it more but if it only happens with World War III, I will choose peace, not Bitcoin $22.9k.

You don't get to choose it. You just get played and the game goes by the rules of the biggest whales with a plan. They literally bought their Bits at $16-$18k when everyone waited for that $10k.
Now when everyone was waiting for that $50k spot, they started dumping near that price. Some people are still losing money by trying to catch the falling knife.

I personally think it should stay at $33k however anything can happen.

That's what I said about what happened to the price after the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs in the USA, that some big whales must have been happy fleecing a lot of little fish. I prefer to invest for the long term but in any case if you plan to make short trades, better to do the opposite of everyone else; when the price goes so low that it looks like it will go to 0, you'd better buy, and when it is rising non-stop, beating ATH after ATH and there are predictions of how fast it will reach $1M, you'd better sell.

I think going the opposite of everyone else is what the likes of Garyscale and Microstrategy are actually doing currently. I have notice some moves by Microstrategy taking profits when you will see many investors calling for holding the bags. Right now even though I don’t believe it’s their effect that causes this crash, GBT are selling when the other ETF approved entities are holding or accumulating, is this some kind of strategy or they have actually made it to their profit target and are taking some partials.
 


Personally in this situation or fluctuating market I will only advice an individual setting his target and when they meet up their you take the partials, or simply be less speculative and just go for a very long term hodl which has proven to be the best and most profitable strategy in bitcoin trading

No doubt this is an opportunity to buy more Bitcoin but I don't think this is the last such discount as we may see similar fluctuation often before the bull run as the price will start consolidating toward upward direction during bull run but until then we may see few more opportunities.

Though the market is bit mature compared to the previous years but still if what you have mentioned happens I mean if Bitcoin drops down to $22.9k then it's pretty obvious that there would be chaos in the market and people will be selling and whales will be buying as we have seen in the past. Scary to even imaging going back to the range of $20k again.

Well for starters, I'm not very convinced by $33K. Based on volume, it's more or less the middle of nowhere and confirmation that the small amount of support around $35K has failed.

Personally I also prefer the "traditional" fib levels, in particular the 0.382 for continuation of a bull trend, followed by 0.236 as the "line in the sand" before turning bearish:

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/z/Z1MJqbam.png

Generally speaking though, I don't see any sigificant support until $31K, where there is a lot of until $26K. Failing that, then $23K I actually agree with as next level of volume & fib support. I was also banging the drum all last year about a move to $48.5K (0.618 fib retracement level) as being the most likely scenario, most people thinking this was completely out of the question for 2023. Came a few weeks later than expected.

I also included the Ichimoku Cloud on the chart, as I think it's quite relevant to see how low the long-term support goes for Bitcoin, ie by March it'll be between $27K and $23.6K, which would be confirmation of a trend-change from bearish to bullish, if we are to consider the current move a bear market bounce to the 0.618. Otherwise, it can be considered as confirmation of a new bull market.

As for the immediate-term view, based on Daily chart, I see nothing bullish right now and don't understand how anyone is maintaining this perspective. Price has broken the 3-month uptrend, based on cloud support and 50 Day MA, with more resistance overhead around $44K than support below, until $31K. $42K to $44K is looking like a confluence of selling pressure, even if price manages to bounce back to these levels.

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/q/Qpj4G19o.png

Don't mean to be the bear here, still bullish long-term as long as price is above around $23K, but otherwise just like I considered 2023 to be a big rebound back to $48K, now I only see a correction towards $30K. My only real consideration is for how quickly price get's there, with the halving arriving in April, there will no doubt be healthy price consolidation after this.

The thing is that I don't rely on some people predictions concerning bitcoin and secondly I know quite well that some people doesn't make a proper research before they come up with their own ideas over bitcoin, but in this predictions I think will believe on it, because it has analysis a something of this nature before and I know quite well that market of cryptocurrency is unpredictable and its not constant and their is every tendency that our expectations in cryptocurrency might change with immediate effect as we may think that the market will experience more degradation in value base on the chart analysis or interpretation, but the aspects of the price of bitcoin getting to thirty three thousand [33k] and with that it will also experience twenty two thousand [22k] I don't think bitcoin reduction in value will get to such level, because what makes the value of bitcoin to increase is when the demands is of high advantages or potential than the supply,  right now bitcoin is having a massive adoption so their is every possiblity that the price will end its downfall at thirty seven to thirty six thousand [37k/36k]

I have come across a lot of speculations in this board but after going through the analysis you posted and links to your past price predictions of bitcoin, I am becoming more convinced and confident in what you’re predicted to be the price of bitcoin and how the market flow will look like in the coming days, weeks or months.

Like you said, “till then, consider this a speculation” maybe until when proven. This was the only word that made me doubt your predictions again but for the price to hit what you predicted in your post in December last year, I still have some level of trust in your prediction. It will play a role in my savings henceforth when I want to buy or sell, but ultimately I’ll prioritize hodling for the long term more.

Its funny how all the movers and shakers come out with their predictions when there is confirmed move. Honey badger doesn't give a fuck, who know maybe the price will reverse and all these lower lows will not happen. Its impossible to predict, but one metric 1btc = 1btc

I agree with you about this. In the past week, when the price hiked and got to $47k, I was actually predicting that it was heading to $50k before it would retard, but it seemed that was how far it could go, but I did not actually know that it was going to go below $40k. I didn't see that coming. I believe this will be the last correction just like you said. Any time there is a sharp decline in price, it usually give rise to a huge pump too when the time is right. Now is just time to buy the dip because we might not see the price going below the current price if the bull market is fully started.

As Bitcoin is currently in low momentum, it is a great opportunity for investors. In the past of every bitcoin halving, the price of bitcoin is very low and during this time experienced investors invest huge amount of money in bitcoin. Because the next bitcoin halving is waiting to happen, the price of bitcoin increases dramatically after a bitcoin halving. As the Bitcoin market touched from 15.5k to 48.9k, now from 48.9k to 38.5k now Bitcoin price has come to I see massive dumping in Bitcoin market. Since bitcoin halving is only a few days away, I advise every investor to invest in bitcoin as soon as possible. This chart can teach the same thing.

I also lean towards the scenario of $33k being the lowest bottom for this correction. But if they want to create a big shock for the market again, they don't need big black swan events like the Covid pandemic or the third world war. If they want bitcoin to be dumped to $22k, market makers will always have a reason to legitimize it, the market can still be manipulated and not just influenced by macro news world tissue. Furthermore, we still have a time bomb on the market, which is CZ, all news about him is currently being kept quiet. I guess maybe they will use that as an excuse to create Fuds and cause panic in the market in the near future if they want bitcoin to fall more.

Regardless of what the OP's prediction, $33k or $22.9k, it will be a good buying opportunity if the chart is validated as per his TA. So just like any prediction, it's going to be a hit or miss. Maybe it's that the OP is trying to get us some hint so that we will know what we are going to do in this kind of situation if indeed it will be validated by the market or suddenly it will make a shift and obviously, everything is negated.

And with that, it will be a golden opportunity stack sats again in preparation of a massive bull run after the block halving. So it's either we take the OP prediction to be ready or resists it and says that it will not go down that low, it's up to us.

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/k/KvHfzKbR.png

I don't make the rules!

A quick rebound from $38,000 may give a signal that we will not go far in this correction, as indicators such as (MACD) and (AO) are still interacting positively with the price, so at the present time we will not move much and we may test $38,000 several times until mid-February. Next, ETF news has become less interactive, which means that we have reached the point of consolidation now unless anything new happens.

https://talkimg.com/images/2024/01/25/ktHSq.png

Although everything is possible in the Bitcoin market, I would like to believe that $33,000 is too far down below. There's currently a tug-of-war at $40,000. The price goes down to $39,000 or even $38,000 but $40,000 comes back immediately. It seems $40,000 doesn't give up, but once the price breaches $40,000, it will also be immediately rejected causing the price to once again fall to $39,000. This is exciting. But I'm confident this is temporary and as halving nears the price also rises.

I like that words about this might be the last discounted price we could ever get so better not to waste this  opportunity to buy more , I am sad not to have available money now as I have already invested all of the funds I am allow to risk by my wife but still looking for ways to add in my crypto/bitcoin holding as I also believe that this will be the last time that we may see bitcoin lowering down to 30k level.

I wanted to skip this reply before but I couldn't because I see this post as too much fake. First, there is no certainty in the market, saying breaking the $33k will "surely" touch 22.9k is too certainly, we are only speculating, the market has the final say, so a better use of words might be more appropriate.

Secondly and mainly, I see your post as one of the ways that people cajole the newbies or traders without much knowledge about trading online but I never knew it could be so obvious in a prestigious Bitcointalk like this even as you continue to propagate such falsehood. By the way, congrats on your target hit last year, but even a gambler had their targets hit too, so I won't let that blind me like it would do many.

However, the big deal I see now which is in the reverse is the modality of how you got your Fibonacci levels. This is absurd, no such levels exist on the 1D, 1W and 1M charts of Bitcoin which one could use to analyze a long-term disposition of any market. By the way, why can't you include the timeframe you used? After all, it is the least that a professional analyst would do. Trading is no joke and I think it is high time you stop what you do not know, or learn it first. Why force it? You often like to dodge my questions, I guess this is the right time you prove yourself. Those levels indicated whose Bitcoin price did not tally are not even deemed fit to call the strong/main Fibo levels, not to mention using them as reference points.

I'm familiar to your predictions and yeah they are worth reading , and now that you mentioned that 33k level yet did not happen and instead the increase returns and now recovered above 40k again , does this mean the bull will continue mate? if does then we must be ready before it happens.

This recovery could see bitcoin reach $45k-$46k before pulling back as the OP mentioned. I think the OP's scenario is about the medium term, but he's not talking about the short term like you're thinking. Bitcoin has recovered to 42k USD in the past few days but that doesn't mean it will never decrease again, you don't rush to rejoice and think subjectively.

I have also seen some of OP's predictions in the past to be quite accurate and this time, I will support his prediction as well. I'm even still holding some USDT waiting for bitcoin to drop below $35k, but my prediction is that it will happen after the halving, not before the halving.

Actually this is what others believed to happen specially when the price starts falling bellow 40k and yeah it fell down to 38k so some assume that it may drop down to 33k  though you are correct that now that we have this level again then we are assuming this is bull again and we are on the right track.
now we are in 42k , I expect that 45k is coming anytime soon .

Even if traders want to play short, it is recommended that they only play for one day and maybe BTC doesn't want to stay long at $42,213 and I am very sure of this and it will change the playing patterns of players who like to go short in trading in this moment.

There is a need to be optimistic because, after the ETF case, it actually went down, but it can recover in a short time. Hopefully, in the future, the ETF will actually provide encouragement to continue to increase, and I am as confident as ever that $45K will soon be reached to prepare for the halving period. Next, they will continue to provide positive things so that altcoins will also move better.

Not sure if this recovered movement is not enough for you to consider that it was the lowest
or cheapest chance to buy bitcoin.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

in as what the market showing now it is the  cheapest and will never see that low again till
bull market comes.
that is a big IF or WHAT IF , but for me and I think with most bitcoiners ? this is a nightmare
to happen , some will take chances buying more but those who will be trapped then surely have to face
different feelings.

What you say is very correct; even what you said will enter at $45K has already been missed, and it is not impossible that it will reach $50K, where currently the price is at $47K+.But the fear is that before reaching $50K, there will be a correction again before the halving period occurs. Will this happen or will it continue to move up?of course full of hope, and many people speculate on daily trading, which is quite exciting for those who are good at analyzing because movements change quickly.

Pump will mostly like to happen and we’re close to $50k. Bitcoin is done with the correction phase and now is just gaining an additional momentum to continue its up trend. We might not see the level of $20k ever again especially now that we are too close with the halving and the approval of ETF can start to feel as many investors are coming in. Have more Bitcoin now and wait for a good signal to take profit.

I hope that what you say will certainly come true, and it is true that there will be no more corrections, let alone down to $20K, even now the movement has reached $51K-K$52K. Indeed, hope that it will continue to move to reach $60K, especially supported by the influence of the. ETF approval which has accumulated a lot of bitcoin, also don't forget that the halving period is also near. All of this should encourage it to move up, although it seems like it is still slowly moving upwards. Keep buying and holding in order to achieve what you want.

Today Bitcoin almost reached $53K before being corrected again to $51K in the market which is also part of the two real effects you mentioned. I am still quite confident that the price reach of $60K could happen in the next month if this month there is still such a good increase in Bitcoin. Because this month there was no price correction that was too big, so it could be very possible for Bitcoin to get a further price increase if buyers can continue to increase before the halving occurs.

That is why I always emphasize that the Bitcoin prediction and the Bitcoin price is unpredictable desperate the analysis people rendered concerning cryptocurrency it is obvious that a bitcoin price cannot be accurately predicted because it is something that has to do with rising and falling or increasing and decreasing, so from my perspective bitcoin increment cannot be measurable can also not be predicted that correctly because the market interchange so that fact alone, will it make you to know the accurate measure to state concerning a bitcoin price.

So it is obvious that the price of Bitcoin for fluctuate and if it depend on its price being the current price you will not make a profit for it investment so in normal circumstances you have to know that what determine the market of Bitcoin is when the supply is of lower condition than the demand of the market, secondly the price of Bitcoin get accelerated when there is adequate adoption or massive adoption of cryptocurrency that help to speed up the price because there is more investors who come in to boost the market.

So never stand to say that the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise or when the price started falling it will continue to fall to the grassroots, the market of Bitcoin cannot be determined by anyone or predict accurately by anyone it is a market that this with a revolution so nobody knows the features and the characteristics of the market, it can rise today and  Fall tomorrow morning that is the nature and the condition of Bitcoin.

We hope, as you say, that there doesn't appear to be a correction that is too big and there are no indications of that, so it is very likely that a movement will occur soon to break through $53K, which will usually continue to spur a move to reach $60K. Even though there are always preparations that we might not want, corrections can occur, because the halving period is still 61 days away and long enough that many things could happen, even if we don't want them.

Usually bitcoin growth did not start immediately after halving, but a few months later. That is, there is still plenty of time before the new bull run. Bitcoin has been growing for more than a year and so far there have been no major corrections. Many people are waiting for the halving and new growth, so it seems to me that manipulation and correction can happen, because the market always moves against expectations.

All these have turned a thing of the past, we are now far ahead where we were some months back to this day, we should always adopt confidence in our discussions about bitcoin market price and how its moving, sometimes we just only need to view beyond the presence and consider the past and the future, this will be what can give us hope more on better days ahead with bitcoin and not base on the current market situation we may be facing, just look at where we are now, where we are heading to after halving and consider bitcoin the best cryptocurrency.

We will see more buying of bitcoin starting next week. It will happen because there will be more people who want to rush and buy bitcoin before the halving starts. Currently, there has been a lot of preaching about bitcoin on the internet, and so many comments prove that many people are interested in buying bitcoin, but they want to be certain that the halving is this year. I saw a post where someone was saying that if the bitcoin price will reach 60k to 100k because of the halving that he would invite more persons to buy bitcoin including his family. The main reason why most people have not bought bitcoin is because they think that the bull run has not started, so they dont want to buy, and the price starts dipping.

I don't know about other Bitcoin enthusiast but I think for myself Bitcoin can actually hit it's previous ATH before the year turns half and that's of there isn't any bad news ahead because with the looks of things everything seems to be moving very fine and well but no one can the next big thing that could possibly happen to Bitcoin and as we all have seen some even can really have a great toll on the price as the FTX saga did same thing to the market price.

The price of Bitcoin has hit above the $47,000 in this month of February, and there is a clear evidence that it will continue increasing until the price reach $80,000 before investors will begin to experience another bearish season.With the current moved of the price of Bitcoin, show that this year 2024 is all about increasing through out because the green light is still displaying in the market and there is a hope that the price will continue increasing. Traders saw the changed early this year, and they believe that bullish season will soon appear for traders to begin to trade to make passive income that will give them strength to purchase more when bearish season return.

We shouldn’t talk about the bear season right now. As the bull season is almost running now and we might see Bitcoins rising again in price. Many expert traders have speculated that Bitcoins will cross 100k usd in next couple of months, then it can set it rest. So if you are waiting for price to fall down or wait for the bear season to buy the coins, then sadly you will miss all the fun and chances to make profit from the coin. According to me, the current price of Bitcoins is not too bad. You can still be able to make good profit if you start accumulating now.

op pretty much was off by huge amounts.

drop to 22k or 33k

was way way way off base.

If the etfs keep their inflows at $500M per week then I can see us breaking $53K and going to the mid to high $50ks.

Basically as long as there are flows to these etfs and they aren’t negative then people won’t sell their bitcoin, because it doesn’t make sense. But once it starts to get stale then it might be the top. Which is what happened in 2021 when the BITO flows started to decline and it marked the top.

From before the halving to after the halving, there will indeed be many surprises that will occur, but many people think that after the halving there is usually a correction before it actually increases, which means it is in accordance with what you predicted. Looking at the situation of Bitcoin's movement during this week, it appears that there is no immediate movement to increase, every time it reaches $52K+ it then falls again to $50K+, this continues to happen. Whether it will actually increase or whether there will be a correction is very difficult to predict at this time.
We will wait again because there are still 54 days left before Halving and there is always a lot of happening outside of that.

That is a strong belief mate that before the 2nd quarter ends we will be breaking that 68 thousand dollars All Time High recorded in 2021.

But for me personally lets not assume somuch because some times expecting too much makes us fails and frustrated.

Maybe it could happen faster than your prediction, because after waiting for more than a week to break through $53K, it has finally been achieved now. Of course, it is a good sign that the possibility will continue to increase again and could happen.
ATH in 2021 will soon be achieved if the current movement continues to improve before the halving period.
But I agree don't make too many assumptions and be prepared that the possibility is always the opposite of what we assume and that is normal.
Let's just wait a few weeks to see whether the movement continues to improve.

If I have learned something in this speculation subforum, it is lines on these charts do not work. I use trendlines as a type of direction finder, however to use this to predict the next market direction, this is certainly not very reliable.

In any case, for those people who said that they were not convinced that this is not a bull market, are you presently becoming convinced? I am not being a forum cave troll. I am genuinely asking, thank you.

This is a bull run and, the price is running to hit above $70k soon which it will happen next month because the month of february that made the price to fly to this current position show that it will increase higher for investors to achieve profits again because, this is the season of profit making to those that invested in the year past.

There are some hodlers that will not be convince in the beginning but they will be convinced at the end which am part of such people because I never believe that the price of BTC will reach $60k early this year and, before the end of this year, I guess the price will be approaching $100k.

Your prediction could happen, now you just have to wait for it to pass $64K, which always fails to happen when it gets close and falls back to $61K. The halving period is still quite long and before the halving period, I think $70K as you estimate, can be achieved this month, and it is not impossible that $120K will be achieved by the end of this year.

Everyone also did not expect that before the halving period there would actually be an increase where there were predictions of a decline until the start of the halving, but in reality there has been an unexpected change, and we are just grateful for it.
It's time to continue buying and saving until it will indeed increase higher in 2025 with a renewable ATH.

If we look at March Bitcoin price or momentum it will definitely be bullish at the beginning. And next month is the Bitcoin halving in April, when this halving takes place there will be opportunities for investors because of course it is more likely that the Bitcoin price will go down. Because currently pumping Bitcoin price is definitely likely to dump it. Because Bitcoin prices go up to go down, and Bitcoin prices go down to go up.

Those stats can change in an instant, like mar h has a lot of possibilities and a lot could happen this month, we could have a major correction and bearish this month before the halving as it has happened in past pre halving charts but I still have doubts to this also cause never has the price of bitcoin reaches it's last ATH or threatened to cross it's last ATH before the halving, this bull might be different cause bitcoin no longer depends on retail investors, since the EFT the d man's has been on a rise and bitcoin is more scarce this period meaning higher value, but yet the pump has been without any corrections so we should also be expecting correction right about after we cross a new ATH if bitcoin still has momentum for that or before the correction if the resistance is too much to break out of 62k. Let's just wait and see it's all speculation at the end of the day.

Lucky that we never happen to see the Low that was said in the thread and lucky that we experienced the opposite side in which we are now   in the bumping season.
And you are correct that we have seen some threads OP started about predictions and yes making it to reality so I guess this is another one that we are expecting.