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This post is a "sentimental" thread with a placebo effect, yes, that the despair of seeing a multi bet fall with a  lowest "@" is not something of the gods of bad fortune, in addition, sport has an influence.

^-/Question/-
I think basketball is one of the least reliable for low probabilities (@<1.1) and Tennis is the safest...

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e.g.
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/01/28/k1ayq.jpeg

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update ago. 2024
NEw Case: :)

Review Post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5483252.msg64472460#msg64472460)

Question, Do you place this bet prematch or via live match? This low odds is very rare for me to see on ML pick NBA especially on prematch but yeah since the nature of Basketball is a team effort. Anything can happened even with that smallest odds.

Your pick is extremely painful if you put significant amount of bankroll on that particular since that pick of multi is the kind which you usually place a huge bet on it due to its almost sure bet assumption on it. Shit always happened on NBA especially on regular season because coaches sometimes give up the rest of the game if they feel that they can recover the loss on the next game.

I’m not good tennis sports analysis but players there is far more consistent than basketball because it’s just an individual effort which room for error is can be minimized compared to coop games like basketball.

I am done with multi-bet 🤦‍♂️
During the week I spent $$ on multi-bets on football and basketball. I bet during live matches and prematches. Relying on small odds does not necessarily result in victory, sometimes the situation is the opposite and you experience defeat. Single-bet is still my favorite to this day.

Tennis, cricket, volleyball, badminton, I'm still confused about the betting model. And I'm also very bad at sports analysis.

Pre-match, the NBA is very surprising with certain matchs. In my opinion it has a higher frequency than any other sport, but, I think it is something of personal feelings, that's why the question.

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^{@lombok: @<1.1} 

I've also lost several parlays by taking NBA favs so I can relate to that kind of loss, and I agree that the top NBA teams this season are becoming overvalued by the bookies. You can't blindly add it in a parlay and hope it'll be an automatic win like in the previous seasons.

I wouldn't say tennis is one of the safest overall because the WTA matches would make you change your mind.  ;)

I think it's the opposite, I do agree that Basketball is highly unreliable for small odds, as a matter of factor all sports does have this scenario too, but thinking tennis is the safest is quite the opposite, I'd say both sports are unpredictable for little odds, and Tennis in my opinion is the least safest for such probabilities, if you had followed the just concluded Australian Open well enough, I believe your perspective to this opinion could be different.

NBA betting specially parlays are hard to hit, if you think that your bet are safe let's say top teams against low rank, there could be upsets that is going to happen and you really get mad at seeing the results.


Not sure about tennis, when it was only Djokovic who remain as the top 4 as his contemporaries all retired with injuries and old age, new set of players tend to be very unpredictable as well, most specially in the women's side.

As pointed out by @Harkorede it was the number 4 vs the number 3 seed. Also in tennis, there are 3 set match and 5 set match that can really go either way. In the Australian Open, number 3 seed has 2/5 seed winning already, but the number 4 seed rally and win the last 3 sets pulling a upset.

If you want to get cash out on the average to the numbers of times you bet then we should avoid multiple betting. The trend of betting is now shifting towards single bet. I prefer going for a single bet with a huge odd like 6-7 odd than betting multiple where odds as small as 1.0... will be the spoiler of the roll. Most odds falling around that level are shocker at the end.

Sometimes it's not just about probability as bookmakers could sometimes overvalued/undervalued a team, and sometimes they try to intentionally do it to pursuade the public in betting the high favorites. That's why I don't usually bet on a heavy favorite that has a high spread with a very low moneyline odds.

You mentioned the Minnesotta Timberwolves in your example which is only 1.07, a similar thing happened today with another game which is between the OKC and Detroit Pistons (same league).

As per bookie,  here are the betting odds.  (https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/thunder-vs-pistons-prediction-odds-line-start-time-2024-nba-picks-jan-28-best-bets-by-proven-model/#:~:text=Thunder%20vs.%20Pistons%20spread%3A%20OKC,in%20their%20last%20five%20games)


Converted to decimal, that's 1.11 on its moneyline.

Take multi betting for fun only, it doesn't give us a good chance of winning in the long run. Focusing on single bet with a decent betting odds is the best strategy to win. Odds with 1.90, I think you need to win 53% to be profitable in the long run, but if you can get 2.00, that's better as anything higher than 50% is already profit, even decimals in excess of that, of course, as long as you know how to do the right bankroll management.

I'm obsessed with parlay bets on the past due to its promising return, the more leg you have the better, but upon knowing  it's real chances of winning (https://www.forbes.com/betting/guide/parlay-odds/), I minimize it, and just do it for fun with penny bets.

I would say that it's something pretty normal to loose a multbet or even a bet with a low odd.
Why? Because if a bet has an odd bigger 1.00 it means the event has not really be concluded.
If you see some horse racing, even horse at last hurdles can jump badly and falls :( !!! That's why you can loose or win anytime.
Of course it's "rare" a certain event, this not means that should not happens.

You are not alone and don't feel sad but when you play multi tickets you are not really playing sport betting,rather you are playing lottery as  with each bet you add to your multi ticket you dramatically reduce the chances to win that ticket.I know that feeling as I was let down in a similar bet by a NBA favorite with odds of 1.07 which should have been a sure win.I soon after that came to the conclusion that is not worthy playing low odds in a parlay.I don't know but lately has become super difficult to even win a parlay with odds of 3 or just a bit more than that.

Bookmakers are astute on their end to use odds size in confusing and deceiving gamblers which is why odd size big or small doesn't at all times in reality reflect what the actual result of a match for a team is going to be. If we can ignore the odd size and do our diligent research about the two teams in a prematch we want to bet on we can be exposed to details that the odd size presented by bookmakers doesn't represent.

There has been many instances in football where a team with the best form is playing against a team with a very weak and inconsistent form. And you'll find out that bookers will give almost equal size of odds to both teams in such case it could be that a key player(s) that team known for its current good form may not be in that game and it will affect the possibility of them winning their opponent, that's why the odds are made that way. So based on experience odd size doesn't mean a team will surely win a match.

How I wish this is attainable but unfortunately it can't be due to not all gamblers' has a large bankroll to afford a single bet in order to make a reasonable profit from that single bet at once, which is why they have to multi bet that their profit should they win be of a reason amount of money.

Yes, the WTA variance is quite high, of course.


Men's tennis is going through a transition, which has not yet materialized, at least for specific semi-final and final matches in regular tournaments, but if you look at 2023 for the Grand Slams, you can still have confidence to just in some players.

So with that previous criterion, I think that as a closing bet for a mutibet, if I had to choose between any sport and tennis with the same probability ( @ ) I would make it for tennis.  Ah, certain conditions apply.  : )


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These are not idea to low odds, a low odds could be @1.9, hence,they are + 90% odds to win, that is, to round up, you would lose 1 in 10 times, yeah, given the risk percentage, it means that it is something that It is within the parameters, that is why it is not strange, but it is in the case that playing those odds you find yourself losing many times.

Consequently it leads you to evaluate: the sport, the league, even as someone mentioned if it was pre match or live, since it is out of the average if you make 10 bets of 1.07 and lose half, it is a rarity.

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eh, ok.

For now it is my lowest probability this year, although think it is at any time, I have that bad habit of adding one more to round outs or those requests from the system "one more" boost your bet  :)

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/08/28/9M3m2.png


Previous one bet:
(It wasn't less than 1.10 but it was my worst case this year @1.16)

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/08/28/9MI0z.png
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/08/28/9MEc5.png
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/08/28/9MNzd.png

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It would be nice to know that if you have one with less than @1.10 you could leave it in your comments, but regardless of that your comment is welcome O-T.

It's very rare, well at least in my experience it's the first time it's happened to me in football, in fact I rarely make a solo bet in inplay with odds less than 1.10, but as I've said sometimes I just want to make it on Multi- bets to drill @(1.81)

2x0: moral "nothing is certain in a sports bet, take this message as free advertising of what you shouldn't do...

^{Yes, I know, there are million-dollar bets at 1,001, but these are mine...}

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/09/04/9gpUw.png

 :)