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Title: Estimation on time until reaching next difficulty level Post by: Alexium on April 06, 2011, 02:17:12 PM Greetings!
I'd like to hear from those familiar with the system's statistics. How much time would you say we have until next difficulty level, considering the present hashrate and the hashrate growth speed? Thanks! Title: Re: Estimation on time until reaching next difficulty level Post by: cdhowie on April 06, 2011, 02:25:03 PM Greetings! The hash target is adjusted every 2016 blocks to try to cause the next 2016 blocks to take two weeks to find. So, if the network's hash strength is growing, you can expect the target to adjust a bit sooner than two weeks.I'd like to hear from those familiar with the system's statistics. How much time would you say we have until next difficulty level, considering the present hashrate and the hashrate growth speed? Thanks! Title: Re: Estimation on time until reaching next difficulty level Post by: dbitcoin on April 06, 2011, 02:26:43 PM Current Blocks: 117028 | Current Difficulty: 82347.22294654 | Next Difficulty At Block: 118943 | Next Difficulty In: 1915 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 2 weeks, 0 days, 12 hours, 57 minutes, and 20 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 76076.55229829
There is no strict numbers, always updated during 2 week period. Title: Re: Estimation on time until reaching next difficulty level Post by: Alexium on April 06, 2011, 02:29:16 PM Please excuse a noob, I didn't know it's being ajusted periodically.
I think I read something about saltatory difficulty adjustment upon reaching some predefined amount of blocks (2 hundred thousand something). Have to go RTFM. Title: Re: Estimation on time until reaching next difficulty level Post by: cdhowie on April 06, 2011, 02:32:48 PM Please excuse a noob, I didn't know it's being ajusted periodically. No need to excuse anyone; everyone starts a noob. :)For further reading on this subject: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Target https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty If it's not clear from the articles, the difficulty is a function of the target; the target adjusts about every two weeks, and this changes the difficulty. Title: Re: Estimation on time until reaching next difficulty level Post by: Alexium on April 06, 2011, 02:34:14 PM Please excuse a noob, I didn't know it's being ajusted periodically. No need to excuse anyone; everyone starts a noob. :)For further reading on this subject: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Target https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty If it's not clear from the articles, the difficulty is a function of the target; the target adjusts about every two weeks, and this changes the difficulty. Title: Re: Estimation on time until reaching next difficulty level Post by: xenon481 on April 06, 2011, 02:55:41 PM the target adjusts about every two weeks, and this changes the difficulty. More accurately, the target adjusts every 2016 blocks. If the period between retargets was less than two weeks, then the difficulty increases. If it was more than two weeks, the difficulty decreases. Title: Re: Estimation on time until reaching next difficulty level Post by: Alexium on April 06, 2011, 02:59:02 PM cdhowie, xenon481, thank you. I think I got it.
I still wonder what's an average speed of hashrate growth for, say, last 6 months. Or last year. Is it possible to find that out? The idea is to calculate the difficulty for a given time in the future, based on the current trend. Title: Re: Estimation on time until reaching next difficulty level Post by: [Tycho] on April 06, 2011, 03:28:00 PM cdhowie, xenon481, thank you. I think I got it. http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.pngI still wonder what's an average speed of hashrate growth for, say, last 6 months. Or last year. Is it possible to find that out? Title: Re: Estimation on time until reaching next difficulty level Post by: Alexium on April 06, 2011, 03:32:29 PM http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.png Thank you. I never thought it was SO FAST. So sad I didn't know about the project last summer...Title: Re: Estimation on time until reaching next difficulty level Post by: cdhowie on April 06, 2011, 03:51:03 PM More accurately, the target adjusts every 2016 blocks. If the period between retargets was less than two weeks, then the difficulty increases. If it was more than two weeks, the difficulty decreases. That's exactly what I said in my first reply. I was summarizing. :P |