Bitcoin Forum

Hi everyone, I hope you all doing great. I am back with another speculation, I am calling it a speculation as this chart is based on previous cycle.
I am less confident on this move however If it's going to be something similar, then we are about to take some rest after going 260% UP just as in previous cycle.
A decline of 35-40% can be seen in the coming days/week.

If that doesn't happen now, It will happen sometime later in Q2 of 2024. Let's see how it goes.
https://talkimg.com/images/2024/02/28/fURGm.png

I'm happy you included that you are less confident about this move because I was so surprised to read from you that a whole 35-40% decline would happen in Bitcoin in the shortest possible time. Did you mean in this current dispensation where everywhere is bullish? How is that even possible? Even if it was judged by the last history, on the contrary, Bitcoin is behaving differently compared to it. Or do you see the recent chart pattern with that of 2020 correlating?

Things are changing with Bitcoin and this points to the fact that institutions have taken over it and I predicted it years back. It can't be business as usual when Bitcoin chart history is to be considered like the old times that had almost 100% correlations. The past histories can't be a modality to know what the future holds of the coin anymore, and the earlier we realise this, the better to avoid confusion.

I can only implore anyone reading the Bitcoin chart to read the prevailing chart that will point to what the coin will do in the future and not the old history assertion.

I was about to ask you, if the ATH was broken before the havling, would it affect the price reading for the next 18 months or affect the ATH?
The recent price movements have made me confused. The price is growing amazingly, even though not much has changed since 38K.

What I understood with the Price Action and heard some experts, I think Bitcoin Halving is already priced in and when the actual event will happen, price can tank a bit as I have suggested in the chart. We are already at $61k and 20% up in 2 days. Let's see if we can make a new ATH before the actual halving.

So it means the sudden pump right now is normal since the previous cycle was also like that... the real big one is still not happen yet!

People are greedy right now, it's nothing different like they don't want to missed the train, so they're joining in hope the price will keep increase.

$100K in this year doesn't looks impossible.

Another post about going down, the last “prediction” didn’t work out too well based on the fibs right? Now it’s it happened before so it going to happen again logic. I do suppose a broken clock is right twice a day. BTC could just as easily keep going in the uppity direction. I’m basing this on the fact I woken up 1min before my alarm went off today. Remember 1 btc = 1 btc

What we are seeing now may be the effect of the Bitcoin ETF. This may sound weird to many people but there is a way markets behave. After the halving, many people were expecting the market to explode just immediately but there was never a prolonged explosive move. This is expected because the halving will first bring doubts, lack of confidence and all manner of skepticism considering that Bitcoin was seen as a bubble and hype by many institutions until lately. But as soon as the trust is established, fresh capital will flow in as people will begin to have confidence in holding. You will begin to see more willingness to hold than desires to sell, this is what sustains bull market.

If a new all time high is achieved before halving, then Bitcoin will be proceeding to above $100k after halving with minor retracements as usual. This is my reasonable expectations but it is up to the market to do what it would do.

I reckon that the new mayor of bitcoin might have seen your prediction and 4 hours after this he begun twapping on bitcoin again hheeheh. However yes, it is not very shocking anymore because bitcoin is very hard to predict. I also have made many mistakes, wrong predictions and the wrong speculations in this forum.

On Q2 of 2024, these are months very much near the halving. It might be more bullish that what we are presently witnessing. I predict it will be on Q3.

That's going to be interesting if we manage to break and set a new ATH pre-halving. It hadn't happen before so this might set a new precedence in the market and we don't know what will it be as we are all basing on the previous cycle. And so if we established new ATH, will the previous history still continue or we will have a new one.

I'm not expert on TA, but it's too early to predict that Bitcoin Halving is already priced in. But I don't see it this way, there's a lot of leg room to see the price goes up after the halving. Maybe this so called experts are confused with what is happening in the market and so those prediction as just short term. $60k'ish bubble will burst, then after the halving, gonna be huge and it might be close to parabolic rise.

That is what I am hearing from some good analysts that there's a likely that we may see a pull back after all of these pumps that we've seen and that's prior to halving. Maybe actually before or after it but that's one thing that's for sure that whenever Bitcoin goes up, anticipate that there's a followed action of it to correct.

Is this from the current price? This is likely around a slash of $21k - $25k. That's huge but I wouldn't be surprise if any type of correction comes for it to be balance and if we've seen that, that's another signal for everyone giving another accumulation period after it has reached $62k.

Lol, but it's true 1 btc = 1 btc. However, we do love some technical analysis, right? And so this is a new one from the OP and we might have seen our TA members posted their own graph for us to see what could happen, it could be up North and see new all time high. But after that what will happen to the market, we haven't yet seen the block halving and yet we are now talking about new all time high and what will happen after that. So very interesting what the OP says, that we might see a huge dump before the block halving when we thought that we very much on the bullish state because of the ETF approval. So it's either the analysis of the OP is spot on or their could be some divergence as new picture is being developing right now, $62k and still going up.

By saying that it's setting a "precedence" of surging to a new ATH pre-halving, I believe that we should know what the actual reason is for the current surge. We can't merely make a presumption that this will be the "new normal". 8)

OK, but what could the real reason for the current surge be? It could be the ETF, BUT it could also be a government entity starting to buy for their vaults, and HODL it as a fall-back/back-up/store of value. It has been predicted years ago, and it's probably happening.

Oh its just a bit of jesting tbh, you may have understand from my post I'm not a big fan on TA to me its just drawing arbitrary lines on a screen that suits the narrative but sometimes the TA "guess" is right to be fair(broken clocks etc). I do notice sometimes when we make big uppity moves some posters come out of the woodwork to proclaim "down before more up" and I guess at least with OP he called it speculation this time and a bit iffy on conviction. Last time is was prediction and alot of conviction.

We always complain about new folks coming in and not getting in, I do attribute that to some of these posts. Waiting for it go down to get in, but then never getting in because honey badger dgaf.