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Title: what happens when options expire? Post by: a298b112 on March 28, 2024, 04:59:04 PM Huge upcoming options expiry (USD 15bn) 🚀🚀🚀
In total over USD 15 billion in options notional OI will expire this week; This Friday marks one of the biggest expiries in Deribit's history as USD 9.5 billion BTC options open interest out of USD 26.3 billion will expire (40%) plus USD 5.7 billion ETH options open interest out of a total of USD 13.2 billion (43%). https://twitter.com/DeribitExchange/status/1772989322528010369?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1772989322528010369%7Ctwgr%5E80a6d13668365e0fbfde2ece29f7d9f4cfd4a1f8%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdecrypt.co%2F223824%2Ffinal-bitcoin-options-expiry-before-halving-is-here-what-you-need-to-know (https://twitter.com/DeribitExchange/status/1772989322528010369?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1772989322528010369%7Ctwgr%5E80a6d13668365e0fbfde2ece29f7d9f4cfd4a1f8%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdecrypt.co%2F223824%2Ffinal-bitcoin-options-expiry-before-halving-is-here-what-you-need-to-know) I saw this post in X, and trying to understand what it means.Can someone please help understand what happens when options expire? And why is this important? Or not. Title: Re: what happens when options expire? Post by: internetional on March 28, 2024, 07:24:07 PM Big players make money on selling options. They are interested in specific BTCUSD rates at the moment of the option expiration. And they have enough resources to manipulate BTCUSD level through futures positions. Thus, the last day may be extremely volatile because of the battle of big players. Or, if there is no big battle, and the majority of big players are satisfied with current price level and try to preserve it, a dramatic price shift may occur right after the expiration.
Title: Re: what happens when options expire? Post by: hugeblack on March 29, 2024, 01:30:34 AM Trading volumes for 24 hours were about 33 billion, so 15 billion will only affect daily trading and may cause the price to correct by a certain percentage depending on Bitcoin inflows, if not equivalent to options expiry, we may see $69,000 to $64,000, but I don’t think we will go far unless there are speculators who want the price to fall further.
Title: Re: what happens when options expire? Post by: adaseb on March 29, 2024, 04:58:04 AM Those are notional values so it doesn’t mean as much as you think. It’s like someone buying a far away out of money option for like $10 which is 1 BTC, it would imply only $10 was the option trade price for an $70000 option.
Every month we get these alerts and people expect some volatility but in the end nothing happens. Rarely do these have any type of effect, even with stocks. It’s just an article to generate some interaction and get some exposure but I wouldn’t take these option expiry dates really seriously. |