Bitcoin Forum

Hey everyone,

I’ve been pondering the mysteries of the Bitcoin market lately and I just had to ask—how do we know when retail investors are FOMO-ing into Bitcoin?

I mean, we all have our tell-tale signs, right? Personally, I keep an eye on Google searches with keywords related to Bitcoin to see if retail interest is picking up. And I know people are really getting interested when my gardener starts talking about Bitcoin!

In the current market, I’m convinced the uptrend is mainly due to the ETFs buying BTC (https://farside.co.uk/?p=1321). But I’m curious, what metrics do you all use to figure this out?

Are there other specific indicators or just gut feelings?

Share your funniest and most accurate signs that retail is diving headfirst into Bitcoin.

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts!

You can look at Google trend and some indicators for Bitcoin bubble that bases on Google trend and some stats from social media platforms.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin&hl=en
https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/bitcoinBubble
https://www.theblock.co/data/alternative-crypto-metrics/web-traffic

You can look at Bitcoin heatmap that is given by Glassnode in their report like this one
https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-18-2024/

You can simply see what's happening around you. If many people around you start to talk too much about Bitcoin, this market while just previous months, they did not care about it, it's good signal that retail investors are coming.

Thanks mate. I did not know about theblock.co. That looks like up to date website to keep an eye on.

Google trends + exchanges volume + etf volume, pretty easy formula for raw estimate

Continuous green candle on daily basis with increasing trading volume is a clear sign that retail is fomo-ing since whale manipulators usually can’t keep up the buying position for a long time with increasing volume.

If you saw that Bitcoin is behaving unstoppable on pumping for consumption days then retail investors plus whales is riding together just to chase the profit for late FOMO buys.

Usually price action for daily to weekly basis is the key factor to determine what you are asking.

Retail investor are the most confused souls as they are the first one to do FOMOing or even panic selling. It's not new we have been witnessing this for years now and I think this is something which benefits whales more than anyone as they try to shape market behaviour to their benefit. But I don't think any tenured user will not be FOMOing as they accumulate it during the bear as well and do DCA throughout the year as they don't overbuy or panic sell

Being a bitcoiner, you need to go online on a daily basis to check on the updates concerning the crypto networks, bitcoin network and you can make use of different apps and platforms for such purpose, this is not to give you fear or scare you, but to ensure that you get to know all that is happening around the bitcoin and crypto environment daily, we can also make use of the market chart in knowing the current price, tracking on the previous and checking on any other coin as well as we may want to have it, staying tuned to all crypto channels and news updates is very important also because there we get to know what is currently involved in bitcoin.

This one right here is the biggest one for me. When random people all of a sudden start talking about investing in Bitcoin (or often in other crypto, because, you know, Bitcoin is too expensive), then you know we either reached the peak or are about to.
Another metric is the growing popularity of Bitcoin trading apps on Google Play or in Apple Appstore. I started a similar topic a long time ago and somebody pointed out there was a correlation between the Coinbase app being ranked 1 in Appstore and Bitcoin's price reaching the peak.

Right now I am not stating this is the case here but generally when I read the section I have quoted from your OP, I automatically become highly sceptical of the motives behind the post especially when it comes from a newbie account.

From my experience, in the suspicious cases it usually happens when puppeteers that are trying to build up their accounts and are hoping for merits as they try to invite discussion but as I said, I am not stating that is the case here but I remain highly sceptical.

Sorry mate, but are new comers not welcomed at BTC Talk? I am generally asking because I want to know what others are checking.

When retail buys, I start to sell. :)

Seems like a good formula. I do the same. Would throw new crypto youtubers into the mix.  :D

I think historically Google Trends has been an excellent way to see with data whether or not the average person is looking into Bitcoin.  Currently it's almost like Bitcoin is still at the cycle lows the way it's being ignored by the average person.  I think a lot of people got burned in 2021 and won't give Bitcoin a second look as a result, but there are still plenty of young folks who are stacking and being introduced to crypto at younger and younger ages.  I think we probably have a year or slightly longer before Google Trends maxes out in it's Bitcoin searches, but when it happens I don't think you'll need to go searching for ways to see it.

I initially started this thread because I had a lot of guys around me asking me about BTC. They were here in 2021 and they are again here now. So it got me worried whether retail is already FOMOing in.  :) But got your point, people that got burned will be very careful this cycle.

I don’t think I can share a very accurate one, all is just simply observations anyway. Everything is speculation so we can not expect a 100% accuracy.

However, I think social media can be a good indicator of what is trending or what’s not. So, by looking at it we can determine where the retail investors are going for as of the moment. Of course, market performance is also a good indicator

It is surely when the people around you starts talking about bitcoin. Even if it might be your grandparents. Actually especially so. You might also notice a lot more of shops accepting bitcoin. So far though I have not seen these signs in my country yet. Bitcoin still seems like a mystery to a lot of people.

There are some reasons for Bitcoin FOMO. So you have to stay updated about upcoming Bitcoin events. For me, I do follow some free Telegram channels where I can get early news. They do research and share it on their channels. So I don't need to search on Google or any other specific websites. FOMO always comes from positive news. So it's very important to gain knowledge about upcoming events. You need to find such good channels from which you can get the latest news quickly. Otherwise, every time you would need to use Google,. 

fyi... YOU ARE RETAIL

Just wanted to point out this is a terrible indicator. I see people make this sort of claim all the time. A single person talking about Bitcoin means nothing. People all the time are finding out about Bitcoin and getting into it. People always make this claim: as soon as a person I know in real life mentions Bitcoin I know the market has peaked and its time to sell. lol. That is horrendously anecdotal and means nothing. A gardener, or taxi driver, or dentist, or whoever, is just as likely to get into Bitcoin as anyone else. Having a single person mention Bitcoin to you in real life says nothing about the state of the market.

If it was like all sorts of people you know from different walks of life are suddenly all talking about Bitcoin, then that would likely signal a retail frenzy is going on and the top could be coming in days/weeks/months. That's very different than "a single person I know mentioned Bitcoin" lol. I always cringe when I hear this sort of claim.
End of rant.

How do you know? :)

Aside from google trends, when you see that many "experts" are starting to say that the market is going to dump anytime soon. So, with these experts telling from Twitter(X) or from any platform that they're in and as well as with the interview in the likes of Bloomberg and other financial segments in the global televised programs, you'd see them telling the opposite of what should happen. I'm not sure if many still remember that when these "experts" tell that we're going to crash, the market is going oppositely and it goes up and the same if they tell their sentiment about dump, the opposite reaction of the market comes.

First of all, before I deliberate on this, I will like us to understand the concept. What is Fear Of Missing Out? Fear Of Missing Out is literally a strategy people used into either buying, acquiring or venturing into a trending commodity, so as not to be left out when it becomes of more value in the future.

So factors that necessitate FOMO
1. When there is a trending commodity/asset who just got over hyped.
2. When the value of an asset has had a significant increase within a short period of time, that is, probably 5-10% within 24hrs to 48y

As these two are enough to create a Fear Of Missing Out by investors who will be wanting to ripe an assets next return of investment when it's value goes higher. (E.g just like the recent price of Bitcoin from $61k to $66k in 24hrs)

I agree with you in most of them but disagree with you on ETF volume because investors in Bitcoin Spot ETFs are not retail investors. They are big and institutional investors most likely but Bitcoin Spot ETF money flows do have big effects on the market in general and can affect retail investors too.

We can use some on chain indicators like addresses with small balances that can partially represent retail investors.
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/addresses-greater-than-0-01-btc/
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/addresses-greater-than-0-1-btc/

Charts for addresses with balances about 0.01 BTC and 0.1 BTC + can be good to see recent actions from retail investors but whales can have their leftover addresses with small balances too.

For me, when the price is pumping so fast, that's the tell-tale sign for me that retail investors are on a frenzy and are at the FOMO stage, that's the only time that you would be trying to buy bitcoin because you don't want to miss out on the possibility that the price of bitcoin is going to go up even more and it would be a really sad thing for someone to miss out, plus people don't really have a lot of money to spend when it comes to investing in bitcoin, most retail investors have other bills to pay after all.

Do you believe retail can really drag the market as crazy? I know we have seen this with GameStop but do you believe this can happen with BTC as well? I believe the current run is caused by ETF Funds.

i am too (and i have a multi-million portfolio) . we all are.

maybe google what "retail" is mr. ceo of blackrock.

Hmm, Op it's not that complex to get such things from the market psychology, just keep an eye on the volume and market developments, A very valuable phrase in this highly volatile market is "be greedy when everyone is fearful, and be fearful when everyone is greedy" even though everyone knows this phrase still maximum people don't follow it they just use to say it.

You'll get it by a small recent phase when the market was falling freely, people were in fear and making some stupid predictions to buy on the lower level, haha from the 59k to 57k range they were expecting a range of 54k to 52k haha wasn't that crazy, and now the market is driving good today 57k and just wait for a break off to 70k haha people will make crazy entries that will be called FOMO.

I think the more objective approaches suggested in the thread, such as using Google trends and some other resources. To me, it's important to not just watch the global trend but see what's going on in my own country. So when there's local news about someone starting to accept Bitcoin, and especially if it's not a standalone case but is something multiple parties are doing, that's a good indicator to me. I also think that crypto fear & greed index can be useful to get the overall sentiment, but it's not specific to retail trends.

If you're not saying that he's a puppet account then why would you post this at all? What were your intentions behind making that post?

Should I feel indirectly accused of being a "puppeteer" because I sent him 1 merit?

We might be approaching another bull run, so it's more than expected to see newbies asking for advice on sell signals, etc, and asking for the community's opinion.
The forum activity in 2023 dropped by 30% as compared to 2022 and 2024 is not looking great either. Who are you helping by attacking newbies like this?
I really like your contributions to other topics, but I don't think you're fair here and I think you owe the guy a little apology, unless you have something more solid to back it up.

Okay. Mr. Bulltard. :D

When we say global, I think it already includes our own country but before others it would be great if we can start on our own, so that we will know if BTC is now accepted if it's not accepted yet or it is now restricted if it's allowed before. The word FOMO does not only mean one individual, so what you said about multiple cases does make sense.

If we are lazy, we can just refer to fear & greed index website, or tool/app because I think they also have it. Even if we say it's not specific to retail, I think that's fine and I think others can also do the same FOMO thing if they see that someone is doing it. Same goes to the retail when they saw others who are fomoing.

fear & greed index website is the easiest to find out. it always tells the truth though since its based on the market. when the prices are way too high when traders only expect the price to be $150,000 and yet the price goes more than $250,000 i think people will really be FOMOing even those that are not in crypto and they may actually reply on twitter threads why they didn't listen to the kid in the neighborhood who told them to buy BTC.

So according to you it's all ETFs and the halving has nothing to do with it?
IMO halving defines the cycles of bitcoin and the first time that happened people were surely surprised, but then it happened again and again and again and every time the price reacted positively to each and every halving. I'm sure that by now people have figured it out.

Or maybe the the fear and greed index will do?

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/05/23/La3qC.png

https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

Not sure what is the historical numbers that we have seen before, but it is goes 80% or higher, I think there is a incoming FOMO and retail investors are pouring some of their money because somewhat they know that market is going into a parabolic rise in the next day.

For anyone using gut feeling, it isn’t enough. While I think you can tell from the activities like you speak off, it could also be that these investors aren’t FOMO-ing in. However, you can use the assumption that they are FOMO-ing in. If that, it has to be about watching for when there’s a Bitcoin related event to see the increment.

Halving for sure plays a role, I just feel this time its different and retail (us) is not in. I see more institutional investors in than ever.

because around me, no one says bitcoin, even asks what bitcoin is, so 100% in my retail location don't understand what bitcoin is. even if they knew it would be better if they kept quiet because it would be safe for taxation 
so there is no influence Bitcoin ETF has no influence at all

Fear and Greed index is displayed with the chart to make it more easily connected with Bitcoin price.

• https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-fear-and-greed-index/

Your given site has a chart too but it is in a pure grey color so the chart from LookintoBitcoin.com is more helpful.

There's always people like you in every cycle who come in saying "this time is different".
I remember in 2013 people were saying that since Gox went bankrupt and that was the biggest exchange in the world it's going to be a different bear market. That this time it's really over for bitcoin.
Then came 2017 and we had ICOs and people went full retard on altcoins, calling it an altcoin cycle and saying that since bitcoin went 20x from the last ATH this time it's different, the world is going all in and we'll see $30k and it all went crashing down.
Then in 2020 people were saying that this time is different because of the pandemic and the bull market is cancelled because bitcoin went up to 14k and crashed down to 4k.
Then came 2021 and that time it was really different but in the other direction as it was expected for bitcoin to go at least 5x to 100k, but all it did was 3.5x...
So, I guess this time is going to be different again because bitcoin has never went past the last ATH just to stop immediately and start going sideways for months.
Each time is different but also the same.