Bitcoin Forum

Everyone is beginning to be bearish hehehehe but this article cannot be more bullish, I reckon. New wallets and onchain volume might be down, however, the price of bitcoin has not dumped on our faces. How strong would bitcoin pump again when new investors arrive through the ETF and from retail investors? They will return and new projects created on bitcoin will make this a certainty.



Six months ago, excitement around spot Bitcoin ETFs, developments in the Bitcoin ecosystem such as Ordinals, and the upcoming halving drove the average weekly number of new Bitcoin addresses to approach its highest levels since its all-time high value in December 2017.

Yet six months on, just like in early 2018, the number of new addresses joining the network has cratered as the fervor around new Bitcoin projects dies down.

Other related metrics were down as well including, critically, miner revenue as measured by hash rate, which has also fallen to record lows. Transaction fees on the network are also down, as well as on-chain volume metrics.

Read in full https://www.theblock.co/post/295279/number-of-new-bitcoin-wallets-drops-to-lowest-level-since-2018

I think the drop is normal because since 2023, with hypes from Ordinals last year and Runes this year, many new Bitcoin addresses were created by BRC20 token enthusiasts and when they stopped or reduced their greediness, they will less create new addresses.

Hypes from Ordinals, Runes also cause very expensive transaction fees that restrict normal users to make on chain transactions and they less likely create new wallets, addresses recent months.

When I look more careful at the title, it does not only in 2022 or 2023 but lowest level since 2018, it is a little bit strange and I can not explain it.

The spike in December 2017 likely is from Segwit addresses and another rising wave for Segwit adoption and even Taproot in 2021.

I didn't get it, how can they get the data?

If I create a new wallet and never use it, is it counted? what's the difference between a new wallet I create and the wallet that haven't been created by someone? can the node notify or distinguish that?

I feel like they count the new generated address from centralized sites, centralized sites can report the total account has been created daily to Block.co.

The editor of the article is confused about what a wallet is. While the article states that the rate of new addresses in the blockchain is down, the title says new "wallets", which is a mistake.

The terms wallet and address are commonly misunderstood by newbies, but this lack of understanding is not something that you would expect from a crypto media site. It's an example of the poor quality reporting at many of these sites.

On the top of my head, if the data is accurate, I think this really just means that this increase in price is mostly caused by OTC, the ETFs, and already existing Bitcoiners. We probably haven't had the huge influx of retail 'traders' like we had back in 2017.


I assume the author meant new addresses that receives some coins.

The bear market may have played a role in the decline of bitcoin wallets. Naturally, the fact that bitcoin is becoming less expensive may deter prospective investors from purchasing the cryptocurrency. Furthermore, the second reason is that, unlike last year when the events in the originals and ETF spots in bitcoin were approaching, the hype has subsided. Yes, the hype is really intense.

Then, after everything was over, the excitement and anticipation subsided, correct? And since 2018, there has been a noticeable trend in the decline in the quantity of new bitcoin wallets created. Though, in my opinion alone, it's too soon to determine with certainty what this signifies for bitcoin's future.

You might be right. But i also notice they only use word "wallet" on title and only use word "address" on the news itself. So it's also possible the author decide to create click-bait or more catchy title.

u are actually correct about that, the author just used his title  Number of new Bitcoin wallets drops to lowest level since 2018 as a click bait to get others into reading his article. It's was so obvious because In the article he clearly used the word Bitcoin address correctly so it wasn't a mistake or poor article like @odolvlobo stated.

 
I don't think such addresses would be counted because on reading through the article, the author clearly stated that his statistics were gotten from The Block's data (https://www.theblock.co/data/on-chain-metrics/bitcoin/number-of-new-addresses-on-the-bitcoin-network-7dma).
And it had a description which said So if that's correct, he used data from address that appeared on the Blockchain during the period he had stated. Of cause, such addresses would have to perform some transactions for them to be recorded on the blockchain. So no, your address would not be counted if it was never used.

To summarize to those who might not have a very clear understanding yet: an address is basically a combination of alphanumeric characters that is used to send to or receive from anyone. Wallet is where you place your coins or tokens.

If you send some coins to a specific address, it will go to a specific wallet. However this does not mean that only one address can be created in one wallet. So this report is inaccurate and misleading.

I honestly don't think that a recent low number of new addresses is of concern really. People are looking at the price who have never invested in crypto before and they are star struck. The new price is a little intimidating, probably new folks are afraid that they will buy in at the top and then the market will suddenly crash and they will be down, although I don't know this for sure. Its definitely one opinion, but lets hope that the up trend continues. If what they say is true we are still sooooo early to Bitcoin even now with the same amount of users now as the internet in like the 90s or something like that.

I think that after couple of months the BTC market will again pump a little but it greatly depends upon the market conditions of the world.

Rather than market conditions I should say political conditions. Like the dollar is being effected by the Middle east block and trades are being shifted from dollar to other currencies this is not a small event. If this continues then we should not expect BTC to pump rather if it remain on its position it would be a miracle.

A little confusing when I read this theblock article because the contents conveyed everything that experienced a decline while the title was about a new wallet.
Maybe Zack Abrams as the author of the article is trying to convey related to the latest conditions regarding the decline in Bitcoin prices after Halving, ETF and other events, but he is confused in choosing the right title.

Imo, the decline that I understand after reading the whole article is something that is still at a normal stage.
If in the article it is stated that the miners' income also drops, then according to the data I get from the planb, the income of the Bitcoin miners recovering 2-5 months after Halving.

Regarding the declined Bitcoin price, early May is traded at the price of $57K and now May 20, Bitcoin is traded at $67K. Means that between $57K to $67K there is an increase of up to $10K.
Correction if I am in this case.

Addresses can be identified but it's harder to know which addresses belong to one wallet. Newbies usually don't know difference between addresses and wallets and more, they don't know difference between wallets, addresses and holders. One Bitcoin holders can have many addresses and wallets and we can not identify Bitcoin holders with addresses.

You might be right that the author intentionally used different words in title and in the content. Title is used for click bait to get more readers for that article and content is written with a right technical term by the author. It's hard to believe the author can use a right term in the content but use a wrong term in the article title.

Typically the author writes the article but an editor writes the headline.

I think by now every Bitcoin enthusiast or potential investor has one form of wallet or the other and am sure an individual can have up to three exchange platforms as well, without any cause for alarm.

New wallets are created for many reasons and it might include investment reasons. I know that one requirement for an ETF investor is that own a brokerage account. You'll need a brokerage account instead of a wallet inorder to buy, sell and hold BTC ETFs.

This makes sense as Bitcoin is mostly used as an investment now, and thus individuals don't actually hold Bitcoin in the technical sense, they merely hold an entry in some broker's database saying they do.

This is what Gary Gensler meant when he recently said that Bitcoin is, for most users of it these days, not decentralized. It's just another investment instrument.

What we're learning here is that Bitcoin is popular because most people like meme investments, not because of the hype around it being "decentralized".

Price-wise it is OK to be bullish because bitcoin is a deflationary asset but adoption-wise, it is kind of concerning. We have already seen Litecoin beating Bitcoin on bitpay stats and that happened 5 months consecutively. I don't think the stats for May will be much different. People simply don't use bitcoin for payments anymore and it is not people's fault, they simply can't use it because of the high fees and that's why they are using something else. In this situation, it happens to be litecoin.

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/05/20/1oCpo.png
https://bitpay.com/stats/

Maybe it is better this way. If people want to make payments, they can choose an alt and there are no shortage of good, cheap & fast altcoins. Litecoin, Dogecoin, XMR and even bcash is not that bad if you want to pay cheap tx fees. People who want to get digital gold, they'll get bitcoin.

Who exactly is bearish?? lol

I think the only people who would be bearish on Bitcoin right now are people who don't know anything about Bitcoin. Every one who is actually into Bitcoin is very bullish because we all expect a doubling in value in the next 12 months or so.

Could be because there are just more people that are more interested to the crypto industry as a whole, and not just with bitcoin. The general knowledge of an average crypto investor has continuously increased as well over time, with more people knowing about what bitcoin is and cryptocurrency in general than someone, say, from 2012, so it's no surprise that a lot of these new bloods gonna get their hands not on bitcoin, but on other cryptocurrencies.

It also has to be said that bitcoin's reached a status and price point that discourages the uninformed to invest in it at all. The average schmuck will think it's over for them and they can't invest in bitcoin anymore since it's already that expensive, when they could, and bitcoin could very well increase in value even more in the future.

These are just some inferences and hypotheses I have surrounding this apparent decline in people's interest over bitcoin.

I guess the part where you're interchanging Bitcoin wallet address to meaning same thing as Bitcoin wallet goes to show the lack of basic knowledge on the part of the blog that did this analysis and his inability to getting fact straight before concluding on such analysis. But that being said, if we're considering the possible reasons behind a possible reduction in the numbers of new persons that are joining the Bitcoin network and creating new Bitcoin address after the development of the Bitcoin spot ETF and and the the whole halving event, it's either one of the following reasons.

1. Most newbies that are joining the Bitcoin ecosystem in general are mostly driven into the system by hypes mostly from those that are already in the system and I guess that's why we had a lot of new persons that even joined the forum as the halving approaches because they would normally want to benefit from the whole post halving bull and I guess that is what also played out during the development of the Bitcoin spot ETF.

2. Others might just be investing into different meme coin hoping that the much anticipated bull will affect the price of meme coin drastically. Like in my region, what's now trending is airdrops and a lot of new folks that have little knowledge on crypto are delving all in because they are mostly in search of quick gains.


it's not as though Bitcoin address is what you create everyday right? If the analysis is true that prio to the Bitcoin spot ETF, lots of address where created and that in anticipation of the halving, it also helped increase the number of people that are joining the network, it only goes to show that most of those joining the network are short termed driven folks that only come in when they see a potential profit and reducing there actively when there willed expectations doesn't come through in the shortest possible time.

It's not even about the numbers of new address that we have in the system that determines if Bitcoin is on the bullish side of not, new Bitcoin members reality don't even have that good chunk of holding in Thier wallet and so regardless of thier numbers, it's not a serious factor that plays any big role in determining how bullish ot how bearish Bitcoin is .

Maybe people are concerned that if there’s not much new addresses then it must mean that there’s also not much people transacting with one another. It’s definitely not a major issue so I don’t think we should be alarmed or anything like that. It’s might be an implication of how most investors are just holding now. Take that assumption as you will.

However, if everyone considers where the bitcoin community and much of the toxic maximalists are taking bitcoin, this should certainly be expected, I reckon. They do not want a medium of exchange, only HODL. They want a store of value and it appears that they presently are beginning to have a store of value. Also, not only a store of value, they also have a speculative investment hehehehe.