Bitcoin Forum

https://talkimg.com/images/2024/05/22/1KUZc.png
https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-low-multiple/

Green = Previous Cycle
Red = Current Cycle

Even though both of these are very different cycles however at some point of time, they collide and stay together for some time.
Sept-Oct 2025 is the time when I think Bitcoin ATH will be in for this cycle. And if you have seen my previous charts, my Bitcoin Price Target is $172k which is nearly 145% from the current price.

Let's see how it goes. ;)

Interesting, seems we are ahead of the previous fractal currently. Let’s hope that continues, I actually think we will go higher than $172,000 but it would still be a nice price if that’s where it tops out at. I think over $200,000 is likely. Let’s wait & see though, only way to find out.

I think I have this kind of personal prediction as well, from a conservative estimates of $120k, to as high as $180k as the new all time high in this bull cycle. And it could be achieved in the last cycle of 2025.

Of course, everyone should take precautions as no one can predict the market with accuracy as we are just putting our best effort to make a wild and educate guess base on many factors including it's previous charts like what the OP is putting here.

a really good graph, I'll steal it from you
this helps a lot to understand where we are and what we can expect (approximately) from what has happened in the past
the past is never the same (in everything) but it loves to rhyme as they say

thank you for sharing this

The previous cycle had more pump and dump, while the current cycle looks more stable and the price tend to rise, probably due to the market becomes more mature than before. Even though the current chart looks really bullish, but I think the upcoming bull season will not able to reach 20x multiplier, x10 is still realistic as Bitcoin price getting expensive, it require more money to pump it.

Lets expect the best to come with the current circle as we already had the bitcoin all time high and henceforth we should expect more of the market bulls in this current circle, i expect that we see bitcoin reaching it new all time high between now and the first quarter of 2025 and anytime from now, we are expecting for more bullish market than ever before, while this present circle is bullish already and will go on that same direction more consistent for now.

Yup, If you look at the exact bottom of the cycle, $15.4k, $154k is the 10x. My Target price for Bitcoin's next ATH is $172k. I mean I am not asking much from Bitcoin, or am I? :D

That's not that much and that's only going to be around 2.5x from the current price of $69k. And with what the speculations and analyses that I have read, 10x is actually more than from what they're seeing since it is past with the last cycles that we're in. So, IMHO $172k is possible but I hope that I still able to hold a lot from that time because many of us are likely to sell from the price ranges of $100k-$120k and $150k is going to be a survival mode for the ones who are still in diamond hands by that time. Thanks for the chart IT, with what the cycles that we've seen, the red line is likely going to surpass that green line.

x10 profit is not much, how much do you think is much? You cannot find any traditional asset or business that can deliver x10 returns in 4 years. And those who buy bitcoin from now and if bitcoin can reach $170k, they will gain 2.5 times profit in just 1.5 years. And I can tell you that no traditional asset can do the same thing that bitcoin has done. That's also why many traditional investors call bitcoin a get-rich-quick investment.

I also see many people on the forum setting a target of 100k$ but I don't believe they will sell when bitcoin reaches 100k$, in a bull market there will always be greed. Planning and setting goals is one thing, whether we follow the plan or not is another.

An eye opener from those who are still hesitant to belive Bitcoin will spike even further, this graph helps us understand how the current trend has been better than the previous cycle and it's a clear but signal as we were awaiting for the magical number of $100k but it seems like there I much more in the store for us. Also, once Bitcoin hits the long awaited target of $100k people will go crazy and it will cross $150k in no time due to FOMO.

I agree, we are going to see the situation that will be pretty high and that will be lovely in the end, we shouldn't be really worried about it. I feel like it should not be a big deal and we are going to end up with something that will benefit everyone. I believe that we should be considering the situation as sensitive because that will definitely give them a lot better results for sure.

This should be the most important part of it and we are going to see it grow to be enough to make miners profit a good amount. ETF situation definitely helps as well, the higher we go, the more they are investing and that is fuelling our increase as well, making it a lot easier, so we should definitely focus on that type of increase at this moment soon enough.

200 days or about 6 or 7 months from halvening before the effects of the lower supply are especially evident in the price.   That puts us past the end of this year to securely have a positive reaction in the price, not the worst because if BTC just stays above 50k and thats the gloom its not the extreme negative just more impatience that will strike people no doubt.

I like the comparative chart but I wouldn't take it too literally as a roadmap for our next direction but more the mood at each stage is probably going to sound out in a similar way.  'History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes' is a phrase said by Mark Twain apparently.  Iam a secret pessimist it seems so its a struggle for me to say it but over 100k is possible as the next peak but I also think it will occur in an erratic and possibly brief way and still I imagine we go in circles alot more then people had anticipated.
  We had the road map upside down, so it was true but our reading of it was not the best and took some time before we'll get to these impressive prices, something like that is how I imagine the truth will transpire.

FYI: I have studied the very first major bull market, and BTC went over 30 times higher (30x +) in a short time. There are limits what can be learned by studying the older past cycles, but there's no reason to ignore them completely.

Is it possible to see the Era 1 and Era 2 to see if there's also some similarities with the current cycle, this chart gives me hope that there's a possibility that bitcoin will continue peaking to my target price before the next halving happens but I can never be too complacent about stuff because I know that bitcoin is a volatile market and you can never expect it to go where you want it to go because when that happens, that's when it will pull the rug under that expectations, learned a lot during those times when bitcoin was being hyped when it was still at 20k peak and then it suddenly fell and people were so mad about bitcoin when it's their fault that they were so hyped up that they didn't expect it to go down anymore.

Here I stood, thinking I'd thought up all possible permutations of ATH but I was always stuck at ATH to ATH (20k to 66k in the last cycle, for example), and considering that the amplitudes from ATH to ATH were narrowing each cycle.

The Bottom to ATH though provides an interesting ask. We've not seen lower than 10x on that preamble, so I would say to you: no, sir, that's not too much to ask for! Mental fingers crossed.

I hope that it's going to go over $200k because that would be a real game changer for bitcoin investment and it's a really big profit for everyone of us if it happens, going at $200k would mean that the value is going to go down to a much lower level especially when you're just starting to invest, you would regret not buying at $50k of bitcoin because you'll see that the floor price will move up and it will never go lower than that anymore, and if the unexpected happens and bitcoin did go down at really high amounts, people will clamor again that it's the end of bitcoin and that people are going to be quitting in investing left and right, it's a really big winter if bitcoin reaches $200k.

👀

For the smart people. Do you believe that the ETF + the Halving will make Bitcoin have less volatility BUT make it have a longer - although slower - price rise during the current cycle? I don't know if that's more suitable for many people in Bitcoin Land, but it could be for those people who want their mental sanity unharmed, no?

Your Bitcoin price target of $172,000 I find very acceptable to me. Expect it to be between 150-200K$, but why do you think we will not see this number before September-October 2025?

In any case, the issue of time is not a big issue. The important thing is that we are optimistic that we will see the price of Bitcoin 150-200K$. I also have hope that we will reach there in the first half of 2025.

At the moment we are following DCA and waiting for the results.

Maybe we can't see Bitcoin numbers that expensive because the bullish season won't necessarily happen again and could make Bitcoin prices increase to that expensive. Because usually the bullish season will occur when the halving approaches. We have passed the halving period and have to wait the next 4 years for the price of Bitcoin to increase even more.

If we're going to base that for Bitcoin's current state, that's already much if you're looking at the current price of it. But you are right that there is no traditional asset or investment that can give that much on a span of short period of time. It doesn't matter for those traditional investors what they call Bitcoin with because that's their opinion about it and they cannot alter the performance that it has done and will keep doing for the next years to come.

That makes sense but for someone who's got a plan of when to sell and take profit, they're going to follow their plans. It's not always roses that we're deal on this market so just do what you think is right for you when the time comes.

Indeed it is only 2.5x but the thing is that BTC price is already huge or the coin is already heavy for it to move quickly upwards. If someone managed to hold that long and earned a title of diamond hands, they will be glad about it and they are now motivated to continue what they have started.

It is only a survival for those who are not on their level yet. Their emotions are still fragile and they are more likely to sell their coins at any moment by the time we hit those price ranges or more. If we believed that the reds are going to surpass the greens, then we need to plan ahead whether if we will buy more coins or sell early because we need some money.

This curve will surely improve after much patience as 2025 is waiting for Bitcoin bull run to start. So at present Bitcoin price is between $60k to $70k. So very soon the price of Bitcoin will reach a bullish peak, but it is most important for us to notice that we are very close to a bull market.

I really appreciate your idea of combining charts of last two cycles of bitcoin market. I am also a believer of history repeating itself and fortunately I enjoyed the 2017 bull run by expecting similar growth of 2013 and market surprised me with ~20x growth from previous ATH but when I was expecting similar thing in 2021, it was only ~3x growth (of 2017's ATH). But, comparing both bearish market and bullish market would be more interesting which is the thing I am getting from your chart.

I disagree here. Like I have mentioned before bitcoin is known for surprising us so you cannot speculate about timeframe of ATH and the level of ATH. Because ATH and its time will be fully influenced by market sentiment which is beyond any technical analysis. I am expecting another 10x growth from the 2021 ATH or least another 5x which means we may have some thing between 300k to 600k. At the same time some people here are confident about $1 million as well.

nice to see some positivity from you again :-)

Its a bit eerie when you overlay 2nd and current, could we be in store for some serious face meltingness this time around. 

It is just "a bit" different because we reached ATH before halving instead of after, which nobody was ready for that I know, but ETF happened and tens of thousands of bitcoins were bought all at once within one month span, which made price go up, not only that ETF people bought, but others seeing the ETF companies buying, ended up buying on the hype train as well.

This is why I believe that we have seen a little bit of difference, but at the end of the day I think it is going to do fine again anyway, we will not really see anything all that complicated or different. This is why I believe that we shouldn't really see a cycle change or anything, things will stay as same and expected as we will see for the long term.

Of course we are very happy to see this current circle because it has been going on long enough. However, these candles reveal that it is more likely to head to the highest level, which is why Bitcoin folding is most important at the moment, because it will hit the highest level when the market completes its high momentum. Then, if the price of Bitcoin hits the highest level since the current time, it will create the biggest bull run market.