Bitcoin Forum

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Glassnode Insights Week 21, 2024 report (https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-21-2024/), A macro reset.

Money flow from Bitcoin Spot ETFs starts to be green again after some weeks of outflow, red.
Bitcoin network flow (https://x.com/woonomic/status/1793241014595203262)
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Keep up your DCA, if you have money to DCA more bitcoin and keep up your Bitcoin hodling, do it patiently with time, in coming months, you will be rewarded very good profit.

While I don't have to believe that investors who're not under financial pressures would sell their bitcoins, the patient dogs to eat the fattest bones would always hold without selling even at a common attractive green lines and while we don't need to be around a circle of minimum profits, buying and accumulating more is way forward of maximizing your goals.

This is an interesting accumulation, I hope it's not a fake signal. Because some moments I see there is a fake phase that starts a new ATH. But I am indeed very optimistic that Bitcoin has a better value for the post halving period. This is because 2 times I have passed that period.

Hopefully there are no bad fundamentals such as the decision to raise interest rates by the Fed due to inflation. Because in some periods an interest rate hike can always undermine the acceleration of Bitcoin's price increase. Meanwhile political issues and decisions by the SEC I think can be a good and bad fundamental for this bull period. As I read June 11-12, the Fed will make a decision on the next interest rate policy

DCA is the best option, I think those who have more money power is good strategi. Because they have oportunity to excecute in much moment. It doesn't apply much to me due to money limitations. I just keep trying not to sell BTC before I can see the realistic targets I have planned. Hopefully, the Great Bull will come soon and we can make good use of that moment.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-price-prediction-2024/

Many individuals are investing more into Bitcoin through the Bitcoin ETFs and it is not a surprise because Bitcoin rose above 70k in the past few days and had shown that the green candle is back which we may see more of that in the coming weeks. Whats shocking or surprising is that who would these new investors and old investors choose to buy now when the market has already risen above 70k. I was expecting this market flow during the little dip that Bitcoin did. Perhaps during the dip many were looking for sellers to sell but everybody held to their coins and it green to choose to sell to the hungry buyers.

Yep, I am confident that this will come too.  ;D

We might still experience a dip but the previous trend was actually broken since May 15 and i think the major  supply point have been reached again  let's  see what it brings this time....
Keep holding  and DCA your way into profits there'll  sure be a nice ROI  for you  :)

Well, that's kinda obvious, supply is getting lower, and there is less and less BTC on exchanges. And I'm a small part of that too, been taking BTC from exchanges to OWNR wallet.

This is what we expected after the halving event because after it mostly we gonna experience a rise in the price of bitcoins which creates a new ATH based on its past history. right now we are seeing it's happening again that's why everyone was recommended to hold when they saw that nothing has happened since the Bitcoin halving because bull runs are not happening with halving at the same time rather it will come lately and now this is the sign for us to be patient and sooner we will gonna see another ATH after this.

Panic can appear quickly with a fud on the market and people will response immediately with panic sell.

It's difference on how greed will appear in the market because it takes more time to warm up, to spread news for people to read, hear, watch and slowly digest it with a long time. The warm up time is very long like months and people need time to do their research, go from doubt to a little bit interested in but still hesitate to invest. Finally they decide to invest or just spend money and very shortly after that, we will see FOMO wave on the market.

FOMO does not last too long but it will last longer than panic time. People will have more time like days, weeks to take profit than time to sell, cut loss or close their position to avoid margin calls, liquidations.

The topic looks more like a speculation one than a discussion to be fair. The topic headline looks more like a clickbait to be fair than an actual discussion.

I am not denying the fact that Bitcoin ETF is the singular effect that helped Bitcoin break it's ATH before the halving. This price surge will be the first in the history of Bitcoin price that happened before an organic bull run happened. By organic bull run I meant a demand created naturally due to halving. I am loving it and all those who have been diamond hands or those doing DCA.

I will still not believe in charts as mostly they are incorrect with Bitcoin prediction. I prefer news over charts as that is how Bitcoin has been surviving over all odds till now.

That is because it is.


There are / were other factors at play too. There are / were a lot of other things that made people look at other assets for investments then traditional ones.




Glassnode talks out their ass. They act like they know everything and it has been proven many times that they are wrong.
They see a bunch of BTC "leave" an exchange and tell everyone it's outflow. A few weeks later it is found out that they moved the BTC to what was at the time an unknown cold storage address that still belonged to the exhcnage....

-Dave

I can't agree less with your speculations, every events in the Bitcoin space are indicators that we're going to experience a massive bull run and a new ATH price in it's peak. The Bitcoin ETF and halving this year had prepared us for a supply shock, like you phrased it, so it's not late to start or continue accumulating because harvest season will mature in bull run ATH.

We all have to be patient. While there have been hypes left and right on the crypto market, Bitcoin remains to be stably moving up and crossing back to its new ATH that has been reached.

Only if they will be patient and able to make it because in the upcoming months, surely there will be greater prices and they're going to be tempted to sell.

But no matter at what prices they sell, if they're in profit then that's the main reason why we've held.

I don't speculate but my belief is that supply shock will help price because Supply and Demand Principle always works. It does not show effects immediately but supply shocks and increasing, bigger demand will absorb gradually in the market and participants. When skew between supply and demand is big enough, we will see big reflection on price.

It is true that on chain parameters can be changed quickly because people are free to move their bitcoins on chain any time. They can move their bitcoins in exchanges or out exchanges very quickly but I believe the Supply and Demand Principle is important.

Halving will cause a skew between Supply and Demand towards Demand, that will help trading volume and price.

During price decline, it just means that there’s not much demand to buy bitcoin and those who are holding it are basically not in any pressure to sell.

Now however during times of price increase, those who have held since a long time ago might now see an opportunity to finally claim their profit. As the price rises, more and more people are going to want to buy which will further increase the value of bitcoin.

I'm still accumulating and I think the price will go up for the rest of the year, but that's just looking at the Bitcoin available on the exchanges.... I remember the previous cycle the same thing happened, everyone expecting a higher price rise because of the supposed shock and the price started to go down and we entered a bear market. So I don't trust that metric very much.

“Continue your DCA” This is my favorite tip, yes this is the best strategy to follow at the moment and the best investment advice.

Real long-term investors know well the value of this advice and they do not care about all these temporary rises and falls, unlike speculators who burn their nerves in front of screens watching the decline and rise of indicators.

I am confident that the big rise is coming and I am completely reassured that we will achieve an unprecedented historical ATH, so I will not waste my time monitoring indicators.

Basically, economics greatly influences price changes that occur. Here our task is to find the right time to buy or sell it. It seems easy, but it has classic challenges, where greed and panic are a threat that must be overcome within us, which of course we must have knowledge so that we can analyze and draw the work area, so that there is a target that can be taken advantage of.

I don't disagree with the conclusion drawn in the OP. I would also recommend to continue a DCA-based strategy now, as I see us firmly in a bull market, even if there may more dips to follow.

However, I want to point out that the exchange holding graphs of Cryptoquant, Glassnode etc. look much more dramatic than they really are.

For example, between January 2023 and today according to Cryptoquant (https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/exchange-flows/exchange-reserve?exchange=all_exchange&window=DAY&sma=0&ema=0&priceScale=log&metricScale=linear&chartStyle=line) the exchange holdings went down from 2.2 million to 1.9 million Bitcoins. 300000 BTC less, that is a respectable number, you'll say :) It's the equivalent of 20.4 billion USD (at a price of 68000$ per BTC).

But this equation is wrong, because the BTC price in January 2023 (Edit: lol, I wrote 2020 first) was at about $20000.

So if you take the dollar value, the USD value of BTC exchange holdings went actually up, and by a lot - from 44 billion USD to 129 billion! This means exactly what it means: that you need almost three times the dollars to buy all Bitcoins on exchanges than in January 2023!

Now some will be scared a bit perhaps ;D But that wasn't actually my intention. This is something that happens in all bull markets. But it is also one of the reasons why the volatility at the end of the bull markets is so high. For a supercycle or so, we'll need much more dramatic decreases of the exchange supply.

We can experience both the situations of fall and rise because the crypto market cannot remain longer in a similar pattern like two days ago there was 71k$ of worth but now it is 69k$ so we have experienced fall in value which is not a new thing in the market.

Whales are trading on huge scale so therefore the market fluctuates a lot but as the supply of Bitcoin is the same and Bitcoin cannot increase in its number therefore when the buying rate increases then price also increases so we trust that very soon we will see another ATH. Apply the DCA and take the benefit from every situation without getting into a worried situation about what will happen.

It is easier said than done. Everyone including the hardcore investors would sell their coins at some point. It is not going to be "dump all the stash" but it is a sale nonetheless.

And here is another problem, as the economy in a lot of countries is getting worse and worse every day, more people go under "financial pressure" which means more bitcoin investors have been considering selling some coins. This means a constant sell pressure is present due to the worsening economy. Something I don't see speculators consider in their speculations these days.

Bitcoin will surely reach a new ATH this year which will break its current ATH, and there's chance that Bitcoin may break that new ATH once again when buying pressure gets intense. If we check the history then we can understand that we are still away from the months where Bitcoin performed its best in previous bull runs.

I firmly believe that within 1 and half years we may see Bitcoin reaching way higher values than most speculations and if that happens then the ones who bought it when it was still below $60k would surely have some good profits, and the ones who accumulated Bitcoin with DCA+DIP buying strategy should have much higher profits within those 1 and half years.

Yes true, when FOMO starts there will be a lot of people who will end up with something that will take us to a good place, and that should not be a big problem, I feel like we are going to end up with a good result one way or another and we should probably consider how we could get better at it as well.

It does not mean that we are going to get something good out of this, but I am saying that we are going to do fine eventually, that is not really the problem because seeing drops time to time means that we are just drawing back, so that we can go further at another try. Getting rid of the longs/shorts and getting rid of stop loss, and getting rid of some orders, all of that equals to having just buyers left in the market which helps.

Any investor who claims to have never sold a part of his investment no matter how little an amount  the sale may be, he is probably lying. Both the big and small investors at some point do sell out some coins to later continue with restocking. We can't control how things should happen to us and that's why there are time critical emergencies could happen to us and we might have no other choice than being pressured to sell a little. And with how good and comforting the economy of every country is today, one should be glad they have an asset to partly sell to get rid of their problems unprepared for.

I do believe that we'll see another price spike by the end of this year, but there's plenty of time left for stagnation or even a brief bear market. I don't believe in technical analysis, so I'm not sure that we'll see positive change in the near future. It's not so simple, and a lot of events can change the price dynamics. In the meantime, there's no harm in doing DCA, of course.

DCA is a good investment strategy and with solid adoption and growth of Bitcoin, it will continue to be a good strategy in future.

Stagnation is very bad scenario to come and we won't know will global economy have a soft landing or hard landing. Technical recession or recession, governments and central banks only want to reduce severity of what are happening in many countries and the globe.

Whatever scenario with economy, I believe Bitcoin will be one of best investment for us.

I can not disagree, pooya87. People who are late comers in Bitcoin market will say common about early Bitcoin adopters, miners, investors, that these early birds are very lucky to become millionaires, billionaires by knowing about Bitcoin too early. They did not see that there are many challenges for early birds. Uncertainty about future of Bitcoin, when it will die, when it price will fall to 0.

Who actually became millionaires or billionaries had to go through many challenges to get what they have now. It's not lucky.

People must invest money they can afford to lose, it's popular advice.

They must reserve some money, big enough, for things in life and avoid to sell their bitcoins when they don't want to sell, even in profit or worse in loss.

It's not easy to do and if they can do it, get profit with Bitcoin investment, it's not lucky.

It’s just May and there’s still plenty of time for ath to be reached. People are even speculating about a possible price of 100k usd by the end of the year. Of course like you said the chances of it happening would depend a lot on different factors. If a positive event happens by the end of the year, a 100k usd price is not impossible just like what happened last year before new year’s.

I am curious though If you do not believe in technical analysis, what do you usually use to make estimates of market movements?

Don't believe in technical analysis because technical parameters can be manipulated by market makers. They see what we see and they with their big capital, more experience, better discipline and patience, can do their game setup during many months.

Don't believe in sayings like "Sell in May and go away" because historic price table, monthly ROIs of Bitcoin shows that its price performances in past May months are not too bad.

Is "Sell in May" really a good idea (in the case of Bitcoin)? (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5496469.0)
https://cryptorank.io/price/bitcoin

There is no fixed amount to be invested in Bitcoin therefore an Investor can invest any amount according to his financial gain. One who puts their whole fund into Bitcoin usually regrets because they cannot sell it during bear season and cannot continue it because they need some money for another job.

Bitcoin investors should keep some extra amount so when Bitcoin decreases then there will be another sum with them to be used for necessary things. Bitcoin investment requires lots of years and if you have no patience, no control over your emotions and cannot predict the market then you should not invest in Bitcoin because as the profit is higher with Bitcoin so the risk is also very high with it.

We await to see that time coming whereby bitcoin will make a new all time high, we already know this is coming but we don't have an idea of how sooner or when will it be coming closer, many have already speculated and predicted as well that bitcoin will reach its all time high of $150,000 by next year and we are already seeing the signs for that with the way of recent market sentiments for each months.

It's because one of Bitcoin characteristics is Fungible.

The bullish case for Bitcoin (https://vijayboyapati.medium.com/the-bullish-case-for-bitcoin-6ecc8bdecc1) is a very educational insightful article/ book for learning about Bitcoin basics. Available on Amazon (https://www.amazon.com/Bullish-Case-Bitcoin-Vijay-Boyapati/dp/1737204118).

DCA with small capital like $10 a week or $40 month can give an investor with DCA strategy, last 4 years good profit.
https://dcabtc.com?sd=2021-05-26&sda=3_years&f=weekly&d=4_years&ac=1000&c=false

Another site to calculate DCA investment result.
https://costavg.com/

This is big flag for people who always want to use all capital to do just one thing. Because life is not always rosy as dream, sometimes the investment stuck with temporarily bad results, and if we don't have other source of money, we have to cash it out, with loss.

It makes life easier, less stress and can help to gain better ROI for investment too.

Unfortunately you've made your post in the morning(UTC/forum time) but in the evening of the same day SEC approved Ethereum ETF spot, so I don't think this analysis and its conclusions are still relevant unfortunately. We should expect a reallocation of institutional investments towards Ethereum and Eth ETFs especially. It's sad for Bitcoin, but I don't think institutional investors will put all their eggs in one basket, while they can secure their investment by diversifying it onto 2 different cryptocurrencies using 2 different technologies for validating their respective blockchain datas. Not talking about their different use cases, one being more used for payments and for storing value, the other one for smart contracts.

That's absolutely correct that Bitcoin we soon make an ATH in the cryptocurrency market industries. Base on the historical growth of Bitcoin price that normally occurs after four years of Bitcoin halving has been take place, next is Bull Run market that we soon take place. Because of reduction of supplies and Bitcoin always been on high demand assets.

Why do you think the ETH ETF approval is a sad thing for bitcoin? We should be happy about that, why should we be sad? To me, more coins approved for ETFs is a good thing for the crypto industry and the market, no reason to be sad here. I believe that even if we did not have ETH ETFs, institutions and investors would never put their eggs in one basket because that is the golden rule of investing and everyone knows it. We should have a broader vision that crypto assets will compete with traditional assets, and to create fair competition, we need to legalize more crypto assets.
I think the approval of ETH ETF will help the cryptocurrency industry become more popular and from there bitcoin will benefit more.

Whatever be the case, the Op already specified, which you are also in agreement with, that DCA is the way to go and that is absolutely correct. If we hit another supply zone that lead to massive retracements, it is still opportunity to buy more and never a time to panic. Anyone optimistic that Bitcoin is not going into any bear run soon, which I think is the position of majority of Bitcoiners, then there will be no better time to accumulate more Bitcoin than now that price is relatively low. The combined effect of the halving and the ETF approval will surely take Bitcoin price higher than it is now, at least above $100k before the end of this market cycle.