Bitcoin Forum

Do you guys think history will repeat itself?

Or are banks smarter now and won't repeat the same mistake as 2008?

Basically, my question is, do you think the housing market is going to pop again?

My wife and I are looking to buy a house one day, and as someone who is renting, this is very intimidating with the way the market is...

Thanks 🧡.

I'm not really an expert on real estate markets so take what I say with a grain of salt — but it's hard to think of a real estate/housing collapse if the USD(and most currencies) are just inflating and inflating and inflating in supply. Sure we might see market-wide drops at some time, but a bubble popping? Idunno man.

2008 was rough, no doubt and  all those foreclosures and short sales - it turned peoples lives upside down.  And, whos to say it couldnt happen again? Banks might be playin it safer nowadays but greed finds a way, right?

Still, from where I sit, things feel different this time.  Home prices have been inching up for years without some huge jumps.  Maybe this climb is the new normal.  Regulations got tightened up so banks aint handin out crazy loans no more.  So Im cautiously optimistic.

But heck your guess is as good as mine! If you buy and prices keep rising, you did good.  But if theres another crash, well... you might end up slammed with a fat mortgage on a house worth squat.

So should you buy or not? Im not gonna fake like I got some magic answer.  Maybe itll be the best decision you ever make or maybe itll kick you in the behind.  Only time gonna tell and  Im just sayin either way, its a gamble!

A good buddy of mine said the exact same thing, in the same way too.


It caused my father to lose his business. We lost our house. My parents ended up getting divorced over financial problems. A 25+ year marriage in shambles over something as retarded as fiat currency. I was only a young child that could sit back and watch. Couldn't do anything about the situation.

Fuck banks, and fuck fiat. For real.

They might be smarter now but no one knows what might happen to them. Lehman brothers seem to be good before the great depression came on 2008. So, no one really knows what's coming for them or they know what's coming but they'll freely just to accept the fate that's going to come.

You mean the housing bubble? I guess so, crazy what the housing market has been nowadays. It's truly expensive to own a house now, mortgage or even do it with cash, that's a lot of bubble where it has came from a decade ago.

I know right, before, even someone who works for a factory or even a fastfood restaurant can avail to pay mortgage and avail a house. Now, even with 3 jobs, you barely can get one.

I think this thread suits more in the Economics. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=7.0)

2008 I read about it crashing in the March before it had actually been realized by most.   After reading I didnt appreciate fully and carried on not recognizing the scenario was true to life and unfolding still.

Someone explained all the details of the bad debt and how some of this debt was being used by banks as core capital or tier 1 which amplified the destruction.    I now hopefully would better reconfigure how losses can spread but this isnt a new process, go back and read about LTCM which was in 90's.

Quarter century ago still relates to events now, the main factor in 2008 was probably government and I would state that for the future problems as the majority of housing debt is government backed in USA at least not sure on other countries.  The debt market for governments would be the centre of anything as big as 2008, I dont currently have us as in that scenario nor have I read it as a toted 'scenario'.

study the fed and how they halted then lowered rates in 2007/2008


look at the rate pattern now in 2023/2024


very similar but right now no one is selling their homes.

market is under supplied more then 2007/2008


you have to guess if that will make a difference this time.


I am in your boat as I want to sell and buy in 2025.  Kind of nervous.

I am unaware if there was a connective boomed history to be remembered in referencing real estates. But if you ever think the value of real State would be so volatile where you are expecting the value to drop down in this 2024 to the price value it was in 2008 then I would tell you that it is absolutely not going to happen because real estate are stable investments, impossible to depreciate in values with all potentials to rise in value.

So I will advice you that while you are expecting such impossible history to reoccur, then you are wasting more of your chances to buy on a lower price when you have to look at future Price.

Ingnoring to buy your house now as thought of you have the money, then you may likely be one of those crypto enthusiastic fans who have the interest to invest to had always got excuses.

Nope, I do not think so. The difference? Banks and investment firms are buying houses all around the world now, which means that they realized instead of giving interest to people to let them buy the house, they just decided to buy the houses themselves, and renovate, and rent them to make a good amount of income, and if they are ever in trouble, they can bulk sale these houses to anyone that has the money to buy it.

This is why I honestly think that the best way for banks to move on would be just keep doing what they are doing, otherwise that doesn't seem like a real issue. During 2008 the problem was that they leveraged their debt, people owed them money, and failed to pay it back, which is fine, but when you leverage that, it became a problem.

And these are the real consequences of bankers and politicians looking at people as just another cog on the machine, however while the US may have taken some small steps to prevent this from happening again, I really think the new housing crisis will come from China, as they are already doing what they can to revert things back to what they were, but their actions seem to be insufficient, so if the crisis China is experimenting now went completely out of control, I do not see how other countries could remain unaffected, causing another economic crisis around the world.

The housing sector is definitely going to boom again. Houses are always in demand, because the world's population keeps growing on daily basis. People keeps getting married every weekend, and families expanding. With all these put in into consideration, you will see that housing will always be in demand, because as people are growing both financially and numerically, they will seek for a more spacious and comfortable accommodation. So if you have the opportunity to invest in real estate do, because landed properties like building always appreciate in value as the years goes bye. Another reason to invest in real estate is that it serves as a hedge against inflation. If you have the means to buy a house please do it, I assure you that you won't regret ever doing that.

Mark Twain said, "Buy real estate. They don't make it any more."

Albert Einstein said, "Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. Those who understand it, earn it. Those who don't pay it."

If you have enough to afford a down payment toward a mortgage, you're better off investing it in Bitcoin and then buying your house mortgage-free.

In the meantime keep your spending to a minimum. Save, save, save (in Bitcoin that is). Don't waste your money on frivolities like cars, fancy clothes, travel, etc.

The banks probably know what to do this and they probably already have measures in place that if the 2008 housing crisis ever happens again, they'd be equipped and would be anticipating for it. I hope that crisis that will happen, the rich people that own majority of the land should get the biggest hit in that possible crisis, the gap between the working class and the elite should at least get a little bit closer.

Honestly, the interest rates are high, which is why getting a house right now is quite scary and actually would be a bad idea. I would buy a house right away if I had the whole amount in my hand, because house prices are quite good, but if you are looking to get mortgage, which many people do, then this interest rate is not really that great to buy any house with. You would be paying a lot of money, and for nearly all your life as well, I would suggest otherwise.

I think it would be smarter if we ended up with something better, like getting to a point where you could just wait for the interest rate to drop, and you could get a mortgage that would actually be profitable, like be less than what you pay for rent by a good margin.

Not sure about others but in my nation it has already started post COVID and real estate went through dark phase during COVID post which it has booked and become unaffordable with an average of more than 30% increase in both appreciation value and rent as well. Real estate will always sustain and bounce back.

- History wont really be having that guarantee that it would really be that be able to make on the same move on what happened in the past. Although it might not happen but it would possibly be having that rhymes.
- Whats are the banks mistakes? Bitcoins creation isnt really that something because of banks mistakes. It is really just that someone did totally create something revolutionary on which it would really be that
totally opposing these instutions in regarding about centralization.
- Real estate business wouldbe always there and only to those people who do have that money and capital would really be always having that kind of advantage .

Speaking about investing then it would really be just that depending on you on how you would really be gonna dealing with it.  Handling oneself when it comes or
in speaking about sustaining living will really be that depending on ours.

The issue this year compared to 2008 is that there is a shortage of inventory now compared to 2008 when there was a surplus.

We got lots of new immigrants and they all need a place to live. We got Very high interest rates so nobody wants to upgrade their current house because they would need to pay the higher rate. So they don’t list it for sale and there is less inventory.

So I don’t think we will see a housing crash like in 2008.

No one guarantees that history will not repeat itself again, even if banks become more cautious and governments take some strict measures to prevent a repeat of the 2008 mortgage tragedy, but in the end anything is possible and history repeats itself most of the time.

My advice is that if you intend to buy a house in cash, this is a very good decision because real estate prices are on a crazy rise due to inflation, but if you intend to buy a house through a loan from the bank, a mortgage, or something similar, then my advice is to stay away from these decisions because they carry a huge risk that may end up with you bankrupt or in prison.

you can't really be sure the housing market price affected by various things and the dense population is one of them, if everyone is looking for a house big chance the price for a house gonna increase.
based on this data alone that i got from this site https://www.nesto.ca/home-buying/vancouver-housing-market-outlook/
currently the price keeps climbing, i heard in canada the reason of this is because there population are too dense packed into one city alone including Vancouver, you can say each region differ but general rule of thumb if the region is too densely packed with people looking for rents and housing the logic would be the price rise as stated before the only solution if you don't want to wait is to buy house in the countryside which offer larger land for significantly lower prices but the disadvantage is that the public facilities are nowhere to be seen.

also you should know that if we are talking about 2008 housing bubble pops it was caused by people buying houses with little down payment and it got approved easily offering subprime mortgages to low income homebuyers with lax lending standarts leading to series of defaults which inevitably also caused massive disaster to the economy and therefore demand for homes plummeted significantly which pops the bubbles, i don't think such scenario will be playing out again but we'll see.

Yeah it’s definitely crazy here in Canada. We had records number of immigration last year and it’s still going up. But the issue isn’t only the immigrants which are coming, it’s the international student who will end up getting a permanent resident status because they finished school and started to work. If you add up the international student the numbers are way above the quota.

It’s so bad here people are moving across the country for cheaper housing. We got like 10 people sharing a 2 bedroom apartment or like 15-20 people living in a single family home. It’s ridiculous how crazy it has gotten but people need a roof over their head obviously.

Depends on where you live.
I want to say how because I don't know the real estate market completely because as far as I know, every country definitely has different prices and regulations regarding housing.
Our behavior also differs from one country to another.
Regarding houses, we are currently experiencing changes to new regulations that are being discussed which are known as Public Housing Savings (Tapera).

If you want to buy a house to live in, not buy it with the intention of selling it again, it might be better if there is vacant land that you can buy. The next stage is saving money in the form of other materials for building a house.

Very often this is a sign that the economy is not doing well, after all one of the most basic things people need to live their lives is for a small piece of land they can call their own, and if this is not achievable for a regular person anymore then this signals that a huge crisis may not be far, which should not surprise anyone, since the economy has not fully recovered since the end of the pandemic, while governments are carrying a massive amount of debt as well.

Yes, because the saying says " History repeats itself ". This is the ones that is true and not the ones they are saying there. Despite of it, maybe their intensity is now lower than before because people have exerted an effort and learn from the past. Believe it or not, taking a loan and use it for something worthy is a kind of strategy to gain more advantage.

Mostly rich business-minded people are doing this. They say that it's also best to do this if there is an economic issue such as inflation. I guess it's because it makes the interest rate applied in the loan lesser. But if we are not ready for that, then fine, we can go on what we think is safe for us for now.

Yes, sometimes this is true, especially when inflation rates are very high and accumulated over the years.

For example, here in my country, inflation rates have reached around 140%, so people who received a million dollar loan, for example, before inflation will end up looking like they got a $300,000 profit because the value of the loan decreased after inflation.

But this does not always happen, as it is risky and varies from one country to another according to different loan systems.

The short answer is that it already has. Most home values peaked in 2021-2022 and are down 10% while real inflation has probably been 10% annually since then. Look at the market through that lens and prices are really down about 30% or more. They just let everyone absorb the hit with inflation this time around. As long as employment doesn’t plummet there’s a chance things will start improving in another year or two.

If you are talking about land and house properties, is a good business because if you can get the house for develop area,it will surely make you rich because the more the area is developing in the society, the land and the houses will be adding more value.

But since many people have entered this houses business, I don't think it will bome like before again because many people have discovered decentralized business, which is another source of income that make people get rich easily.

I will advise you to try other business op, because that house business is no longer moving as before because the inflation is no longer allow people to chose business that will take them a long years before it can bring little profits.

I really don't catch the event of 2008, how it might have related to Bitcoin and what is it that would make you fear history having to repeat itself. I hoped that you would have hint on it but my best guess would be;
That the market isn't appreciating at the pace you would have wanted it to be. Perhaps it's where you had hoped to get the funds for your house but, haven't been involved on the field for sometime, one of the known facts is that, you can't accurately speculate on the market but somehow and from history, you just know it would look to create new highs, higher highs and break them each time.
You just hold on to that and have lots of patience.