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Title: forecast too optimistic? Post by: WillyAp on June 02, 2024, 06:50:51 PM Sinking Profits Bring Reality Check to AI-Driven Rally in Emerging Market Stocks
Almost half of developing-country companies miss estimates Average earnings drop 10% amid sluggish consumer demand. Those forecasters get it wrong most of the time, when they get it wrong big-time ist the companies whose performance is not as expected. To forecast how an industry performs is hard work. too much data and in the case of emerging markets there is not much data available anyway in the first place. Few emerging countries see data collecting as important as it is, I believe due to the desire not to get caught lying. see: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2015/12/17/what-forecasters-got-right-wrong-on-economy-for-2015/ https://se544.com/en/images/forecast-emeriging-markets.jpg Reason being according to: Quote from: Julius Baer “The downside surprise in profit expectations is largely driven by weak earnings momentum in China,” said Nenad Dinic, an equity strategist at Bank Julius Baer in Zurich. Elsewhere, “the erosion in margins appears to come from rising operating expenses,” he said, pointing to wage increases in Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and India. The driving force of the US pressing immigration is the low wages in their home countries. The IMF drove home hope. "Inflation and Steady Growth Open Path to Soft Landing" Do they really ignore the fact that a raising oil production is not translated into Joe Doe earnings? Title: Re: forecast too optimistic? AI on the loose Post by: WillyAp on June 03, 2024, 04:12:45 PM Sinking Profits Bring Reality Check to AI-Driven Rally in Emerging Market Stocks.
Quote Just as enthusiasm over artificial intelligence and China’s stimulus fades, a familiar weakness has come back to haunt equity investors in emerging markets: sinking corporate profits. Bloomberg Article is here https://archive.is/VKIjG Wonder Software AI has way too much fantasy. |
