Bitcoin Forum

How do you perceive the likelihood of triggering a round of Bitcoin sell-offs？

The momentum is too big, it will drop a lot more.
And I wouldn't expect fast recovery, it will take years - if it ever recovers as investors are shifting to AI investments.

This horse has been beaten to death and the "number goes up" has dried off.

According to news provided by media such as Mt.gox started selling and paying bitcoins to their victims, the German government sells bitcoins...which means we will face pressure huge sell and bitcoin will probably fall below 50k.

But I doubt if this news is true and is it ongoing or has it ended? I mean these things are over but someone wants to use the news to manipulate us into panicking and dump our bitcoins. I'm skeptical because why didn't the German government sell bitcoin when it was priced at 72k$ but sold bitcoin when it was priced at 53k$?

Given the current situation, we should prepare ourselves with two plans instead of just focusing on our expectations because anything can happen, IMO.

Bitcoin started dropping as soon as the on-chain data showed that 2.7B has moved from the Mtgox cold wallet so as people start to get their money and selling it, I would imagine it will drop even further. But then it depends on how they're planning to distribute this. AFAIK, they have a 90 days window (deadline to give everyone their money back) but whether they're planning to give it all now, or not is something we don't know.

We have seen extensive sell off of Bitcoin and we have discussed a multiple times about the panic selling. There is nothing new the market always react to bad news. The problem here is that it used to be a trend in the past. Why is again happening is unknown.

To an extent I feel the market is overreacting as the refund is of approximately $8BN. That is way low according to the current market market capitalization of Bitcoin. It is impossible to control the panic in the market and it is possible that the price of Bitcoin might go bellow $50K.

Depending on the amount that they are trying to sell, it’s usually going to go even lower if that happens. I just hope that the people who bought at the top would be able to continue holding. I really feel that we could’ve reached even higher with BTC soon. It’s just retest and it will come full circle, I hope.

The MtGox representative stated that payments on Kraken may take up to 90 days, on Bitstamp up to 60 days, on Bitgo up to 20 days, and on SB VC Trade and Bitbank up to 14 days.

This seems like a long time. Will everyone have enough patience?

With Mt Gox, we are talking about BTC worth billions of dollars, and it makes sense that tons of victims would want to cash out after all this time of waiting. That's a significant amount of money, the sort that can have a major short-term impact. Bitcoin is 10% down over 7 days, and I think it can easily lose another 10-15% of its value. But it's a strictly temporary phenomenon, and I don't believe it will have a long-term negative impact on the price. So let's just wait it out and see how Bitcoin recovers by the end of 2024 (or doesn't recover, who knows).

Definitely no, Mt.Gox only transferred 1,545 Bitcoin from 141K Bitcoin they have to BitBank (https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/mt-gox), which mean Mt.Gox only sold 1% of their coins. While the number that has been sold is around 400K Bitcoin, it's not caused by Mt.Gox, but it caused by weak hands.

People are taking really serious with the refund by Mt.Gox when it's just a refund, it's not the end of Bitcoin.

The receivers might dump their coins, but that's none of our business.

Dump is caused by weak hands, it will gradually recover, but dropping below the 50k USD level is possible so dont start buying right away, wait for the dust to settle a bit and then buy.

Whatever MtGox has sold, the drop is not due to that but people panicking about a possible drop that could have happened. Again, a lot of factors are involved, we cant know for sure.

But what we do know is that prices are being discounted, buying time is coming very soon.

Even if most of us are used to these kinds of moves, the surprise is there but it doesn't move me anymore. These sell-offs are going to happen mostly when the market is too calm. And that's why when there's nothing is happening and the market's too calm, well, you should expect that something is being cooked. I wasn't expecting that all of these massive sell offs are going to happen at the same time and that's why with all of the accumulations being done by the institutions, don't be too confident with them because one day they'll be next to dump massive Bitcoins that they have accumulated.

And Bitcoin will die yet again just like every other time its funeral was announced!  Do you admire Peter Schiff by any chance?

In the last decade, Bitcoin had pretty much stagnated the Halving year and shot up the following year.  If you follow this trend, we are still on track and next year should be the good one.  I agree the last decade is not necessarily a way of predicting the future, but these are the expectations.  If by the end of 2025 Bitcoin is still not pushing another All Time High, only then will I believe the history is not repeating this time around.

How does it look like 'the horse has been beaten to death' to you?

It was said it was the German and US government dumping their coins in the market that caused this dip. But actually this is bound to happen since the market is already overbought. I think they are just accelerating the imminent thing to happen. 

But I don't think the Mt. Gox coins are really going to be sent to the creditors. No government will do that. They wouldn't even distribute the FTX coins, how would we believe the Mt. Gox coins be sent out?  Those coins are seized from Karpeles, that's it.

Practically speaking it's been dead for over a decade now as it's usage was reduced to holding and pumping bags.

It's a vegetable on life support, technically alive but dead inside.

Sad but true, just look around.

/over&out.

Bitcoin found support at 53,000$ and already managed to bounce back to 56,000$ without much difficult. It's very good news after we hit the dip today! Now let's hope Bitcoin will remain stable around the current price until a bullish tendency takes place! 56,500$ is the resistance level of the day at the moment I'm writting this post. From what we saw today, it makes me believe the 50,000$'s zone is a key position for Bitcoin which whales don't want to lose.

As soon as Bitcoin reaches close to the bottom of the 50,000$'s, buyers enter in action and don't let the price drop further. Hopefully, by noticing this fact, investors are going to get more optimistic because the Mt. Gox redistribution isn't so harmful like many thought at first impression... Investors have to understand that if they panic selling, whales are going to grab all their coins for 53,000$ - 50,000$. And if they want to enter the market again, they will have to pay an expensive price for that.

It could be that the cause of the price drop is Mt.Gox as referenced in several posts above.
Apart from the amount transferred from the Mt.Gox cold wallet, it seems to me that apart from that data, those who are selling are people who are not ready to accept the market situation.
If MtGox's plan is to sell up to 100% and now it's only 1% and the price continues to decline, then during the transfer process it will be an opportunity for those who want to buy Bitcoin at a price below $60,000.

Always a bad news is an opportunity for an investor. This time cannot be an exception. I wish that at least this would be the final last time that bitcoin market experiences a bloodbath due to mtgox. Last time where mtgox triggered a bearish trend was 2015 and if I remember correctly then bitcoin was trading around $200 and bottomed around $160. Also, by 2020's I read that treasuries of mtgox kept selling which was the reason why bitcoin market fell down to below 10k levels after the recovery up to 15k levels in 2019.

90 days window for settling down along with the total massive amount of bitcoins might have triggered panic waves among traders in bitcoin market but this would be the another excellent opportunity to fish below $50k levels. Yes, I am still confident about new ATH around the year end as there would be no change in long term trend. Probably, we may see more demand for bitcoin ETFs on these cheaper prices.

It was impressive to see how the market reacted to Mtgox's distribution issues and the impact of the German government moving its bitcoin to various exchanges. The price fell so quickly and liquidated many long traders position, but this was just a risk we had considered for long time. Unfortunately I don't have more of a spare budget to do accumulation at a time like this, but still grateful that I'm in it. It's time to wait for recovery while calming ourself and our mind.  ;)

Over the last 30 days, the mentality of bitcoin holders has been truly tested. Maybe not just in the last 30 days, but in the last 30 days, this has been the worst. Prices have fallen by 20% or more, but now the big hope is for recovery. Of course it will take a lot of time for the market to recover and test resistance of $60k or above again, but as long as panic and worry are still very high then recovery is still difficult to expect. The market will definitely recover, but not now.

Creditors said when they lost their bitcoins in Mtgox it was at $600 and now they are distributing at a higher price who wouldn't sell they already have a high profit even in a down market.
I don't know how much they received and what percentage has been distributed by Mtgox this is not known by many people, we wait until this subsides maybe the market will recover.

there are news circulating that mtgox creditors will receive their money in 3 months, I think this is what caused recent bitcoin bounce back aside from German MP that tries to stop german from selling off BTC in one go

I expect there to be support no need to hit $52k probably around $54k is already a strong support but never expect the price to come back to $60k unless mtgox done with their dumping.
but the good news is that

FTX distribution of cash might increase buying pressure but its just speculation of course, things might not be all that good.

This news came before July and they announced that they would pay bitcoin to creditors between July and October, which only added to the selling pressure and was not good news for the market.
Additionally, a parliamentarian blocked the German government from selling bitcoin because she believes bitcoin is an inflation hedge and should not be sold. But that hasn't stopped the German government from selling bitcoin, but they seem to have realized that selling directly on exchanges would destabilize the market. so they decided to transfer the bitcoins to Flow Traders, a company that provides OTC services.
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/07/06/oED8C.png

https://www.flowtraders.com/


I think the market will soon fully absorb this news and will soon recover despite the Mt.gox news, a return to $60k will not be difficult for bitcoin.

Honestly that's a good news, OTC is the way, even justin sun offered to buy their BTC, definitely better for them since price won't tank and their asset won't plummet along the process of dumping their coin to the market.
if only mt gox could do the same, but since the creditors will be credited individually, expect it to hit the market.

It seems like Mtgox trying to credit periodically within period of 3 months, so if the selling pressure is spread out within 3 months like you mentioned, I think the market can really contain it and I agree that 60k is probably gonna be easy for bitcoin, the reason of the recent dump getting so bad like this because of a shock effect following the news of german dumping as well as mt gox but the resistance seems to be pretty solid. eventually people will get used with the fud and just ignore it.

Most people who have seen Bitcoin ownership from Mt.Gox will certainly feel afraid that Mt.Gox will sell the Bitcoin it already owns so that the action taken by Mt.Gox itself will certainly trigger other people to panic a little and could trigger a selling action. to those who still hold small amounts of Bitcoin. Because we can imagine that people who hold small amounts of Bitcoin are always more numerous than people who hold large amounts of Bitcoin. It's like if we think that there are still more people who are poor than rich people so that we can always count the rich people in this world rather than counting the poor people who are still more dominant in any case.

So the selling action of most people who saw the transfer of Bitcoin ownership from Mt.Gox to their new wallet could indeed be said to be the cause because perhaps some people who had less Bitcoin were afraid they would not have time to sell it at a higher price. However, currently the price of Bitcoin has started to recover little by little and I hope there will be no more panic in the minds of many people so that the price of Bitcoin can continue to increase again this month.

And I think it's not about the price but it's about their longing of their old funds. Some can keep it but another way to show it is when they start selling it for profits. I think there is no way to tell if how much each participants received because that is kinda sensitive already but it is possible to know the total amount Mt. Gox have deployed and in fact, there is a thread or comment here last time that reveals it.

I forgot the values but one thing is for sure and that is, the amount was really huge and enough to shake this market. Waiting is only optional and yeah the market can always recover, if there are times that it experienced a decline.

HmmMAA, is that you? ::)

Many investors will still not sell because they know that they can make more profits by hodling. It is just fud that is spreading that they are going to sell. The investors are not broke and they have other sources of income that they depend on which means they do not have to sell everything as they get them. We are in the bull market, Bitcoin is going to get to a new highest price before the bull market ends and we are looking at predictions that should be above $100,000. Why would you want to sell your Bitcoin at a low price when you can hodl and sell for more profits in just few months in 2025. I still think though that the bottom has not been reach although Bitcoin has already traded around $53,000. When the market gets more busy in the next few hours on Monday, it will determine if we are going to be bouncing back stronger or dipping more.

According to many reports the Mt.Gox exchange had move more than 47,000 bitcoin which was equivalent then to $2.7B to some various exchanges which were said to be the ones to use for  the repayments, so yes the movement of the amounts will definitely be public since everyone is aware of the address they had hold the coins on. The only thing that Will remain hidden is the percentage of that each person got.


Selling your coin holdings say taking profit doesn’t have anything to do with been broke or poor if you ask me. Taking profits is even one of the strategies involved in holding or investing so nothing bad about it, you can take profit when you feel the market is high and then probably buy back. Some can take the profit to carter for some personal needs even if they Have extra income coming to them