Bitcoin Forum

So, as you guys probably know the most of this recent pullback was caused by two main factors. The German government selling bitcoins worth close to $400 million and a liquidation of long positions that this caused. As a result people called out Germany for dumping bitcoin to manipulate the market and not being smart enough to sell OTC. There were even people who offered to buy their coins. Finally, there were German politicians who questioned the move, since this not only was a loss for Germany, but also other market participants. They could easily get a better price if they sold OTC.
Now it looks like Germany pulled back the last 1915 BTC from exchanges, so it looks like we won't see any dumps from them for some time. Still, the damage was done, but maybe we needed some liquidations to move forward?
Here's the article. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/07/07/german-lawmaker-demands-strategic-overhaul-amid-bitcoin-sell-off-chaos/)

I was reading another article earlier today, and the article stated that they bought back some bitcoin after the market dump as a result of panic selling as they moved that heavy amount of BTC to exchanges.
 
But from the information  I got from X  (https://x.com/ArkhamIntel/status/1809194916842512894?)

It appears that maybe they actually did not sell off all the deposits they made across the 3 major exchanges; maybe their plan was probably to manipulate the market, or there could also be a possibility that they sold out some of those coins and later bought them back after the market dropped below $55,000.

According to the Forbes article they pulled back ~2k BTC but the amount they sent to exchanges was 7800 BTC. The rest was sold and caused the liquidations and the drop in spot price.
They did not buy back anything. There are articles like this one  (https://nairametrics.com/2024/07/07/german-government-makes-u-turn-buys-back-over-111-million-bitcoin/) circulating in the Internet that suggest they bought some coins back. IMO there was no buyback and many sources seem to support that. They stopped selling and moved the rest of the coins back to their wallet.


I don't think so. It's the government, it can't allow itself to be accused of manipulating the price, dumping to liquidate traders and buy back.
They're selling because this was seized money and they don't need a bitcoin position, but want to get EUR for it. The problem is they could get more by selling OTC, but someone irresponsible was charged with selling coins, so that person thought they were smart and moved BTC to a number of exchanges to spread it, so that it doesn't put too much pressure on 1 exchange, but I don't think they realized how shallow the market was and how deep this sale would take the price. Once they did their thing and saw the price drop by 20% they stopped.

Yes, maybe someone just messed up.  But come on, we are talking about the third-largest economy in the world! They gotta have at least one brainiac who could have seen this market impact coming a mile away, right?  Especially since those wallet addresses were public knowledge, everyone was watching them!  It is easy to imagine someone on the inside, someone who knew the whole plan, trying to game the system for their own gain.  You know how it goes with money, people see an opportunity... And hey, remember that insider at the SEC who tried to mess with Bitcoin ETFs?  Same idea.  Now they are probably scrambling to fix things after realizing what a blunder this was.

They definitely didn’t sell off all the coins that’s why the remaining 1915 are coming back. Also they didn’t want to Manipulate the market because I don’t see reasons, from even their strategy of selling that’s using three different exchanges and also spreading the sales into days because they started sell off since first of July they didn’t want it to impact the market but it got caught up with other sell offs like Mt.Gox refund and also movement of large amount from US addresses were what caused the FUD to intensify the fall not necessarily them alone. probably that’s why they had a second thought and stop selling

The big whales have all sorts of plans to dump the market as a strategy to get the German government to sell their bitcoins. However, holders and traders should be aware of such activities because the amount of BTC they are trying to sell is not a huge amount according to the Bitcoin market, but their selling has a negative effect on the crypto market as a whole. But it certainly won't take long to get rid of this position. If one of the big whales announces more bitcoin purchases I think it won't take long for the market to go back to its previous position. However, this dump in the market could certainly encourage more bullish action in the future.

The German government has applied a good strategy. After they panicked ordinary investors by selling bitcoins and raising the pacer of sales in the market, they again bought 1915 bitcoins using various exchanges. Here they bought bitcoins from the market at a lower price after selling at a higher. They profited but lost who panicked and quickly sold Bitcoin.

If they will continue selling, the price will just go down and they won't get a lot from it. If they are not in a hurry to sell, better sell those bitcoins in a staggered basis. In that way, they will earn more from this sell-off. Dumping those coins all at once may influence the btc market, but it will only be for short-term.


As we have seen btc throughout the years, this sell-off won't cripple its market. The price may go down, but sooner or later, it will recover again. This was not the first time that an organization sold a big chunk of bitcoins in the market. And we all know the drill here.

I do not think that's a guarantee just because they've pulled back those Bitcoins. They're playing the market and probably thought that there's no way that Bitcoin is the same as their cash that they can have it more if they want to as it's limited supply.

It's a common strategy that even the financial institutions apply. I've been seeing that type of strategy since I was new on this market.

1915 BTC is only 107m  and I dont think thats a weight great enough to alter the balance of market order books globally.    The German government being the seller is the bigger factor, the perception is moving the market and Im surprised to hear they have 40,000 in reserves.  That entire amount would count as something but still its not a proper reason to move a market price around the world.

In conjunction with other factors, a whole series of moves in a trend then yea it matters but not by itself.  Just another story that is written to go with the market moves, valid news but its a label not the actual content of what is moving the market imo.

Pretty doubtful with this maybe people just become so afraid they took out their buy orders once they know that german government moving their BTC to exchange addresses.
a bad news can indeed be quite shocking to the BTC holders many of times it amplifies the bearish sentiment.

but the final gesture of actually settling things over OTC saved the market from going down further, honestly market could easily eat up all those BTC but man the news about it is what causes people to make a big deal out of it.
Even recent sell off actually amounts to more than the amount of BTC mt.gox is trying to distribute.

They have no intention of reconsidering, they are continuing to deposit larger amounts of bitcoin into various exchanges today. After sending 155 million USD this morning, they also just sent 8100 BTC to exchanges, of which 200 million USD was sent to Flow Traders. My guess is that they are looking to sell out rather than hold any bitcoin and the bitcoin price continues to fluctuate with this news. In the short term, it looks like this will be negative news that causes panic and we need to brace ourselves. But in the long run, it will be good for us because ultimately we won't have any impact from them once they sell all those bitcoins.

https://x.com/ArkhamIntel/status/1810315954431176898

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/07/08/oJ5E8.jpeg

Don't tell me that the German govt is playing pump and dump games on Bitcoin market...
However, if your source is correct, it looks like it's the case...

Let's see what will they say they did. It would make sense to take a break until mt.gox hysteria ends and the price goes back to up trend.
On the other hand, government related tasks are more like a train: start slow and also slow to stop. So.. did they buy back or not?!

To me it doesnt make sense why they would sell at this time, I mean they dont NEED
to sell those coins, they could HODL hold them until say next year when there is a
market push up. Who advised them to sell now? whoever it was do they not have
an understanding of the Bitcoin cycle and post halving historical trend?

The cynic in me thinks the government did this in order to create an opportunity
for themselves to buy cheap at a personal level...

it also gives everyone the same opportunity!

What they did was pure market manipulation but it was ill-advised.  Like you said, they would have gotten a better deal of they had sold through OTC but seems that was not their target. What I can make of the whole scenario is that they internationally dumped to lower the price so they could buy lower, this can be seen from their repeated selling and buying but then, the handlers seems not too smart about it. Well, I agree with you that we have passed that now and even if they would want a repeat of that, they will explore other options. The lucky people are those who used the dip to collect more Bitcoins... they are the real winners.

The fact that the transactions were known to the public and it was publicly available information where they sent BTC to 3 exchanges is like they want people to also dump. And along with this, there is also Mt.Gox distribution. It was like a coordinated dumping party, they ditched FTX though as if it could clean its reputation.

But this is close to the government dumping and pumping BTC. They know El Salvador is mining BTC like it's the most valuable mineral to find in a quarry but the German government is throwing them. But who benefits from this act by the way?

Their government definitely has a financial advisor, they should consult him before this selling. But I'm guess it's not up to the German government to hold these coins.

This is very interesting because they moved back that $2k and then some other articles (https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/german-government-moves-another-56m-in-bitcoin-to-exchanges) claim that they send 500BTC worth $28m to exchanges today. Why would they take back 2k and days later send 25% out to be sold? Makes no sense, unless they had conflicting orders.
Ultimately the people who are doing it are low level employees. There are bosses who come and say sell it all, then call them saying we had a shit storm in the parliament about selling so maybe take that back for now, and then the next day the employees are being told to keep selling but at much slower pace 25% of what they used to do so the market can digest it.
I have no idea why they're doing it the way they are, but I know how it's done in institutions that follow a chain of command. Usually the smartest people are lower in rank but due to their position cannot fix the mistakes made by people higher up.

In essence, the bitcoin market is still very volatile and prices tend to easily fall by thousands of dollars when there is confirmation of large sales from any institution, including the government. Regardless of the German government's reasons for selling its bitcoin, we can only take the positive side that the bitcoin market is basically very easy to sway and take advantage of by certain groups with a lot of money. One sells in large quantities, the other buys and takes advantage of the panic. What kind of market game is this?

I don't know if the German government had a plan to sell at the beginning of July without thinking about the price going up or down?
Does the government also not care about the profits they get. the important thing is that they sell the confiscated proceeds?
It is certain that the government has advisors who understand the bitcoin cycle, it's just that we don't know why the German government is selling now.

Let an institution sell all the assets it has from confiscation, in the end this news will subside too, I don't care if this is profitable or not, what is clear is that this sale makes the price fall.

Germany's next federal election on voting for their representatives in the Bundestag will be next year on October 2025 heheheh. If you are from Germany and you want your voices to be heard on stopping the dump on bitcoin, I reckon this might be a good chance for the bitcoin community in Germany to have a meeting and begin a campaign against politicians who are anticrypto. Do not vote for these people, they do not care for the cryptospace and the price of our cryptocoins heheheheh. Vote for the politicians who will pump our coins!

The transaction discovered by arkham intelligence which entire project focused on tracking the movement of bitcoin especially from the big whales, german government have massive amount of BTC will definitely catch their attention not to mention it's sending to exchange address.
regardless I agree, their government should've done better with selling through OTC instead of right on dumping in the exchange creating massive panic, they could've gotten better price too.
but unfortunately, the public already shaken by the news, so yeah the fear & greed index already at the level of fear.

in addition to selling via Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp, the government has also recently sent large quantities of BTC to the market maker Flow Traders.
this gives the impression that the german government is trying to get rid of Bitcoin via otc. another indicator of this: transactions on FalconX or Cumberland.
the government is therefore trying to get rid of its coins in several ways. the majority is handled via otc trades, while smaller holdings are sold on conventional crypto exchanges; for security reasons, the government transfers BTC that does not find a buyer back to its own wallet.

https://i.ibb.co.com/n6HqLHg/image.png
Justin Sun also tweeted on x that he said he was willing to negotiate with the German government regarding the Bitcoin they sold in order to minimize the negative impact on the market. But whether it is a serious statement or not, it seems that Justin Sun also feels that something is quite risky if the German government continues to carry out massive sales. Moreover Long strength which is still believed to cause a bullish after the Halving is far from expected.

https://x.com/justinsuntron/status/1808828661401072092

They will regret this when Bitcoin explodes to new high, after new high, after new high. What does a nation state possibly gain by selling Bitcoin. They have loads of national debt, they can print money whenever they want (they do) so why sell something that has a limited supply. It makes no sense, also the fact they are not selling OTC is very amateurish.

It's a tiny amount of money for a government. In Germany almost 40% of their GDP is tax income. Since they make 4.5 trillion a year, they make 2 trillion USD from taxes alone. Let's say they made 500m from their recent bitcoin sale. That's nothing! Even if they could make $50m more if they sold OTC all it's going to achieve is get some people blamed for this and kicked out but I bet these guys had some shorts set up prior to the dumping. Who wouldn't try to make some money, knowing what they knew?

Let's be done with it. I don't care what Germany does as long as they stop threatening the market and inducing fear by moving coins back and forth and imagine, that's exactly what they're doing. This isn't random, they aren't doing it to sell but fuel the FUD.

The German government has reasons why they should sell it, but they have also ignored what the impact of their sale would be since other sales solutions are rejected. Some investors are willing and offering to buy that bitcoin from the German government just because they don't want the price to be very bearish. But I agree, that there is something the German Government is thinking about that could also be in their favor.

FUD has been fueled by German Government, but some people seem to be starting to oppose the German action considering the adverse impact it is having on the markets. The German government should stop selling those bitcoins and should think of other ways if they really want to make money from them, one of which is selling them to OTC traders.

they are buying it and selling it to see how much they can manipulate the market.

I very much agree!

I asked some people on social media who are from Germany and they say that Germany is a very well regulated country that gives fair rules to the cryptospace. They have blockchain companies there that operate within a jurisdiction that are not being treated similar to how uncle Gary treats companies in America.

They have also mentioned that if this will become very damaging for people who invest and who do business in the cryptospace, this might affect the votes of some candidates in their federal election on 2025.

Any government (of different countries) is not homogeneous in its composition and views. In the same way, in the German government there were both supporters (the majority) of the current sale of bitcoin, and opponents who believe that this valuable asset should be hold. Whatever it was, the current dump cannot be canceled and this rollback has already happened. Now you can breathe a sigh of relief that the fall has stopped and bitcoin has already risen slightly in price.

If we talk about the correctness or incorrectness of actions on the part of the German government, it is difficult to say, because they can invest this money received from the sale of bitcoin in other areas, but for the crypto industry their step turned out to be, to put it mildly, shocking and a test of the strength of nerves holders.

The liquidation has already been completed and let's hope that the road upward for the bulls will now have no obstacles.

I think so. They're also moving it to exchanges and back without trading. That's what they did with that last 2k that people thought was a buyback. They sent it to an exchange, back to their wallet, then sent 500 back to exchanges again divided into 2 halves.

They're trying to spook the market for some reason. The only thing that I can think of is there's a bank trying to either get into bitcoin, or make their competition who is in or trying to get in tap out due to volatility.

It clearly looks like they are trying to manipulate the market, because if they weren't, they would have sold their coins OTC, and then the effect on the price would have been very minimal. They have sold a lot of bitcoins in a very short time and we can only speculate the reason why, mind you that they still even have over 40k bitcoins in their reserve, so who knows what's to come later.

News like these does not look good for investors who are expecting bitcoin to rise as high as $100k before the end of the year, Mt. Gox is also planning to refund lost coins soon, the events so far are not looking to be favorable for bitcoin's price and $100k could take a longer time than expected.

At this point I doubt they're dumb enough not to know what they're doing, especially after people in their own government told them that it's stupid to dump on spot markets when you can strike an OTC deal.
After all that was said they still sent more coins to spot markets. You could call that a mistake if it happened once or twice, but they've been at it for weeks now.

The German government knows exactly what it is doing. I am sure they have a plan and they are just following it. Regardless of the attack by many Bitcoin proponents which includes Member of the German Bundestag Joana Cotar they still want to offload the 50,000 confiscated bitcoins from Movie2K. I don't think they should stop selling because this is also a good time to buy. The market will still correct itself after some time.

Thankfully, after the dump, the German government will lose the power to influence the market in the future. I also think that the market has gotten used to the news of the German dump because it is not affecting the price of Bitcoin too much. The new is no longer generating FUD.  I thought today's dump would have dropped the price of Bitcoin to $52k but the price is still high at $57k.

Nobody really cares if they sell the bitcoins they have in their reserve or not, the worrying thing here is where they sell it. When countries/institutions sell off this amount of bitcoins, they usually do it in the OTC market, and in that way there wouldn't be too much effect on the price, but the German government chooses to sell in the spot market, and the question is why?

The market comes to us and we're not the one that goes to the market. I've set my principles and strategies which is ready to be triggered once the bull season steps in. It's a whole down patience which I'm holding firmly because giving up is not an option at my end. Bitcoin chances of breaking new ATH is very high but the main goal for traders and investors is simply sticking to main goal.

Never really gonna trust whatever justin sun is spouting LOL he even lowkey trolled people in ZK listing, probably this is just a stunt, however, if it's true that's good.
regardless german government already settled with OTC even go as far as buying back BTC at lower price if i remember correctly and based on arkham intelligence already dumping quite the amount but don't get too relaxed yet. the german government still expected to dump even more.

just hoping the market won't be in turmoil once again.

I find this a good move. Not only we got to see Germany trying to be smarter about it now, we also got to see other nations see what happens if they did this, and the right way of doing it. I am not saying that we are going to end up seeing anything crazy or like that, but we could probably see them do much better.

This was basically an educational situation for governments all around the world, they could probably just do a lot better, and with how much money is seized every year, I think there will be a lot more bitcoins seized in the future and already seized by many governments right now. So in the future, these governments will not dump on the market because thanks to Germany they learned that it wasn't a smart move.

That's right. Sun does it for attention, just like when he paid Buffett. He likes to read articles about himself and John McAfee was one of the first people in crypto who used to capitalize on saying stupid things and lying about bitcoin on social media and people were paying that sucker money, donating because he happened to act like he supports bitcoin.
Justin sun is the same kind of "crypto personality" as Bitboy, Richard Heart and Do Kwon.

News reports saying Germany has sold off all of their Bitcoin holdings. Great news for the market. I hope we see a retaking of $60K next week and maybe even a run at $70K before mtgox coins start hitting the market. I also hope we see the price increase before the massive shorts hanging over the market can be covered.

This is a great news because the market is going to have some relief while we wait for mtgox to also finish distributing their own Bitcoin that they are holding. The difference between the german fud and mtgox fud is Germany was selling directly as they had the Bitcoin but mtgox would not be selling directly but they will be sending the Bitcoin to different people and everybody would not be selling at the time to make the market to fall. Some people are still going to hodl their own Bitcoin and not sell therefore we should not be expecting the same impact like it did when Germany was selling. The market is going to recover and we would be in a better position to counter the selling pressure from mtgox. The market not falling more is a sign that the market might have bottom and it is, retracing that is the next step of the market to take. The market is only going to fall if the news that Germany are done selling was a lie and only a rumour.

I wonder if the unidentified OTC address is actually justin's. I have my share of doubts but it is possible.


Knowing that the money from selling BTC is just peanut for the government, but I guess they just really want to get rid BTC and dump it altogether, good thing that they already changed their strategy and sell it through OTC for better prices, wonder why they didn't do it from the start, but know that all their BTC is already dumped, then I expect the news of BTC dumping to be less.

regarding future news regarding Mt Gox i think it will be used for FUD as well, this bullrun around gonna be rough for bitcoin.

But there is a difference that you need to know that the amount of bitcoin held by the German government is 50kBTC worth about 3 billion dollars while the amount of bitcoin held by Mt.gox is 142kBTC and worth more than 9 billion dollars. So even if there are some people who don't sell their bitcoins, there's no guarantee that it will have any less impact on the market.

But honestly, I don't see the German government or Mt.gox selling bitcoin having a significant impact on the market because looking at the trading volume, it can be seen that the market has enough liquidity with those selling orders. But it seems that someone is taking advantage of this news to manipulate the market, they are exaggerating this news to cause more panic in the market and make the dumping situation more serious. That's scarier than the German government and mt.gox selling bitcoin.

I actually think the opposite, where those who come to the market are the market users themselves because the market never goes anywhere to pick up every user to become a member of a particular market. This means that the market is just a place that continues to stay and provides important services to everyone who comes and enters it. So that people who want to trade are people who always like to take advantage of market situations and likewise people who want to continue holding assets that have been purchased in the market.