Bitcoin Forum

BTC price havs tumbled recently, sinking to around 53K USD. This has spooked many investors, with the market sentiment index plummeting to a level of 25, indicating extreme fear ^[1]. Several potential causes have been circulating. One is the news that Mt. Gox is resuming payouts of BTC and BCH to its former users ^[2]. However, the exact impact of this event on the market remains unclear and difficult to measure. Another contributing factor could be the recent sale of tens of thousands of BTC by the German government ^[3].


I initially placed blame on the German government for selling BTC, leading to a downturn in the crypto market. This move seemed particularly unwise considering the recent bullish trend and the fact that BTC hadn't reached a peak selling price. However, new information suggests it was actually the German state of Saxony that liquidated the confiscated BTC. Following regulations, they were required to sell the 50K BTC seized from criminals in January.

"The general prosecutor's office of Saxony is responsible for liquidating confiscated assets, and the sell-off is hardly surprising," said Dr. Lennart Ante, co-founder and CEO of German-based Blockchain Research Lab. "Seized assets are always liquidated within a certain period. This is a routine business process, although at a larger-than-normal scale." ^[4]

Discovering this information calmed my nerves. I viewed the market's re-accumulation as a necessary step for a potential uptrend. Optimistically, the 50K BTC sell-off could even be seen as a temporary distraction from the Mt. Gox repayment of 140K BTC. Additionally, the German government's offloading of its BTC to Wall Street via OTC removes a potential future source of selling pressure. Wall Street's increased BTC holdings could even lead to increased support for the long-term health of the crypto market.

I would like to know your opinion on this issue:

• Are you worried about the German government selling off 50K BTC?
• What positive perspective do you have about this event?
• Are you holding BTC despite the negative news that has been going on in the market for the past several months?

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References:
[1] Crypto Fear & Greed Index (https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/)
[2] Mt. Gox repayment shakes crypto market, causing volatility (https://cointelegraph.com/news/mt-gox-repayment-crypto-market-volatility)
[3] From 50,000 to 4,925 BTC: Germany's Bitcoin Sell-off Continues (https://news.bitcoin.com/from-50000-to-4925-btc-germanys-bitcoin-sell-off-continues/)
[4] It's Not Germany Selling Bitcoin. It's One of Its States and It Has No Choice (https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2024/07/09/its-not-germany-thats-selling-bitcoin-its-one-of-its-states-and-it-has-no-choice/)

No, why would anyone worried though? It's good that they are dumping their Bitcoin already so that majority of us here can scoop some from their initial 50k holding. And now that they have been dumping, they are just left with just less than 10 Bitcoin so it means that they have dump so much but the price seems to be holding strong about $50k'ish.

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/07/12/o8nXP.png

https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/germany

Again, you can monitor that website and see if they continue to sell, if they did, in matter of days those 9 BTC will be gone and then we can all assume that it didn't put any dent in the market except those FUD's and then we can move on next month or even at the end of this month as if nothing has happened.

Edit: it looks like they sold another 3 BTC, but we are just absorbing it like a sponge,  ;D

Sometimes the price can decrease from a mere anticipation of positive or negative change, but it looks like this time, it was both news and action. $50k is almost $3 billion, and billions of dollars do have some impact on the price as well as on the confidence of Bitcoin investors. What was unfortunate was the overlap between these $3 billion worth of coins with Mt. Gox $9 billion with of coins. That adds up to a very significant amount, and even though it's not unloaded all at once, it can have impact.
But all things considered, Bitcoin is doing pretty well and seems to be already recovering from these events. The price is up nearly 5% over the last 7 days. So there's no need to be worried.

Who cares whether they want to dump 50K Bitcoin, yesterday they sold 150K Bitcoin and it didn't cause anything.


That fear & greed index is nothing, if Bitcoin price decline, the fear index will rise, if Bitcoin price increase, the fear index will down. Skip all those cheap news, buy or sell Bitcoin is a normal activity except someone have bought 99% of all circulated Bitcoin.

It will just complicate things for you if you worried about the news of the German government off their holdings of 50k BTC. On the contrary, no offense to them, but it was really a bad timing for them to do that, I mean they could have offload it when we are in the 6 digits figure. I know those BTC they are selling are those that they have confiscated, but still though, if you can make profit out of it then why not?

One positive thing that we learn is that Bitcoin is resilient, Mt. Gox and this news doesn't do much in the market. Those who have sold are either newbies or weak hands, or those who will make a buy back later, so still a win-win for us.

Yes, and I think smart investors are still holding despite this negative news and could be accumulating and taking advantage as the price is at a discount.

I am not worried because the market will withstand the pressure and the bull season will continue.
The price drop is a good opportunity to buy discounted Bitcoin. Many holders have long-term plans, so this kind of FUD wouldn't stop them from holding. There are still favorable economic indicators that the price will appreciate in the future.

They have already made some profit from the seized Bitcoin, maybe they okay with what they have realized. According the fourth article OP referenced there are laws which stipulates the time frame for the sale of such an asset. Also a court can give an other for the sale of an asset based on certain conditions such as assumptions that it might lose value in the future.

Not sure if this should be something to be worried about, because it's their Bitcoin and everyone has the right to do whatever they want with it. Just being worried won't change anything. But the truth is, there is currently an atmosphere of fear in the market, which I think has affected so many investors and traders. Traders especially might want to hibernate selling for the now, as they might want to focus on buying instead. Long term investors as well, clearly sees this as an opportunity to accumulate more.

And again, we all know how the market works. It is never a win-win situation. We sometimes experience decline, and other times increase. I won't be surprise when I hear the German Government buying back some Bitcoin at $65K and above.

Why should I be afraid of German government dumping their bitcoin? We have the time of Chinese crypto crackdown and many other bad days that bitcoin will fall in price but later increase again in price. If the price of bitcoin falls, it is an opportunity for people that have not bought bitcoin to buy at buy price or for people that have bitcoin to buy more at lower prices again.

Why should I be worried? I sold my coins and now I'm sitting with fiat. Low Bitcoin price is profitable for me but I won't be an egoist and say that it doesn't change anything. Even if Bitcoin price dumps with that 50K Bitcoin sell, what will you lose? Nothing, you'll have the possibility to buy Bitcoin at a lower price. When you are in this game, you should have long-term aims, not short-term unless you are a whale. In the long term, Bitcoin is going to rise and surpass its all-time high, so you lose nothing. I welcome every opportunity that gives me the possibility to buy Bitcoin at a low price. This will be temporary, we have to acknowledge that.

Its their right to do that and why got afraid in that situation? That amount is just a small chunk to the total supply of bitcoin and it cannot hurt the price of bitcoin not unless if there are to many people will ride on the dumping actions made by those officials. Then that situation will create a massive scare to those other investor doesn't have enough knowledge or thinking about that they are losing their money because of that situation.

But if in normal condition people should not get scared about it. They should look at the current volume and for sure bitcoin could cater all those sell orders made by those officials. We can encounter the same like actions since lots of institutions hold a lot of bitcoin so people need to relax so that they cannot manipulate the mind of people and scare them about any possible dumps fud that might happen in future.

I'm not worried about the Germany government dumping Bitcoin as they can't only do their worst but still the market is going to recovery and continue heading to its initial destination. We're still on the right track to a $100k Bitcoin value. They can only delay when the price will get there but they can't stop the market from moving forward. I think they're just manipulating the market with this news as if then wanted to sell they should have just gone ahead and sold without making a big deal about the whole selling process. We have alot of millionaires that are willing to buy all their Bitcoin and increase their bags. Here's a chart of what is still going to happen.

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/07/12/o8vJl.jpeg

While 50k Bitcoin is nothing to scoff at, neither is the determination of Bitcoiners. Most of us have made the mistake of panic-selling in our newbie days and we will not make the same mistake again.

So am I worried? No. I am confident in Bitcoin.

We didn't worried when the Mt. Gox repayment started this month, lots of fears, but we were able to stand up and the price didn't go down as expected as there are predictions that $30k will be the bottom.

But after what has been said an done, including the news of the government of Germany dumping their Bitcoin in the market, we are still just trading sideways for this month, lowest of $53k and as high as $58k. With that said, it looks like the market has settled down already.

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/07/12/o8J3W.png

Does Germany government know something than we don't know?
I think they are preparing for some big event in near future, maybe they are expecting Bitcoin price to go much lower after MtGox customers start selling, or they are preparing for another war scenario.
Either way I think we are heading towards the period of big market volatility, and low fees on bitcoin won't last for much longer.

Nopey. I don't even care about that but it's normal to see people become worried about these dumping scenarios from whichever country it comes from or institution that's doing it.

The halving effect is stronger than these dumping news from Germany. There will always be larger folks that willing to buy those sold Bitcoins so, the demand remains the same or even gonna be higher.

Yup. I've been holding but did some mistakes in the past that made me sold a portion of my holdings. But even so, I've been holding ever since. Despite the negative news, I think people should go back how the year has started.

It seems like they have made another sell just a few minutes after your last edit, as what I can see from their balance as provided by Arkhamintelligence is just 3.09 btc, which is 3 btc out of their holdings just from when you made your comment until the time of this comment.
 
Who knows, before tomorrow morning the wallet will be recording zero holdings, and if they no longer have any BTC attached to them, then the fudz should finally come to an end.

Edit: the wallet is finally empty as I check back just now.

https://talkimg.com/images/2024/07/12/opS9W.jpeg

For me I've not seen something serious about Germany government dropping a cryptocurrency if I am not mistaken I've seen many governments Across The Nation that restrict their people not to participate in cryptocurrency especially Bitcoin but what I want to assure you is that in any lift of restriction of Bitcoin or cryptocurrency generally in any country it must be restored because I know quite well that people who love to invest in cryptocurrency mostly Bitcoin will not hesitate to partner or share same knowledge with bitcoin, goverment has being threat to bitcoin right from time, if I'm living in German I will not worry myself that much

• No. The German government like all other governments regular sell seized assets without consideration of potential market value. They do not "invest" in an asset cause it was seized.

• The only positive is you have the opportunity to buy lower.

• Negative news in the past several months? I must have missed them.
I don't count ordinal spam or runes as negative news about bitcoin.

Such dumping in the Bitcoin market is not new but over time such dumping has become a common theme in the Bitcoin market. The German government's sale of 50,000 bitcoins has had a huge impact on the bitcoin market, due to which the market directly reached 1,000 to 53,000 dollars, from where bitcoin could not reach 60,000 dollars until now. However, the Bitcoin market has faced similar situations several times before but that situation did not last long. However, this market has been below 60 thousand dollars for more than two weeks, but various experts believe that Bitcoin is likely to reach 70 thousand dollars again in September.

Why worry if you cannot in any way influence the dump created by the German government? That is, the situation is outside your sphere of influence and there is nothing left to do but accept everything as it is.

Try to benefit from this event.

This is elementary: any bitcoin dump is an opportunity to accumulate cheap BTC at a price below the market. Because I believe that ~$50K is not quite the correct price at the moment, but was pushed by the German government.

If a holder changes his long-term investment strategy because of every piece of news, then he is a bad holder. :) You need to pay attention to the news background in cryptoindustry, but you shouldn't panic over every incident.

They are all out of Bitcoin right now, they sent the last confiscated coins to exchanges tonight. Source: Various on X social media platform. We do not need to be concerned about German weak hands again.

I agree 100%.

This is seized bitcoin, meaning it's a fake sell pressure. If you had someone who bought it and is now selling with a loss just to get rid of it, that would be worse.
It's very easy to sell something below it's value if you haven't paid for it, which is why people often dump inheritance and similar stuff, not knowing its real value.
The only problem I see with Germany is that they're manipulating the market by pulling back from exchanges and sending it back again the next day.

As for the fear and greed, it's just a delayed sentiment indicator that relies on price, but also other stuff like social media. IMO it's worthless. It shows you something you're already aware of.
Bitcoin goes up for a few consecutive days and over 50% you're going to be in extreme greed again.
Also, the funniest shit about fear and greed is that it often was in extremes for weeks, if not months. For instance, check how it hit extreme fear of 14th in May 2021 and on 20th July it was still below 20. So it stayed in the lows of extreme fear for 2.5 months! What does it mean that we're in fear now? We could be in greed next week, or still in fear next month. Why do people even check this?

I don't give a heck about the German anticipated Bitcoin sell off that is if it ever happened, what I care about is how the long term market will react to this and I am sure it going to be in the positive direction, bitcoin market react to multiple factors and this may not be one of the biggest among such factors that never have any impact on the price of bitcoin, at least not on the long term based

Why would I be worried? I held bitcoin when it fell to 3k in 2020, I held it at 16k in 2022. What's the worst that can happen now? It all crashes to new lows of $49k?
It's going to by at a new ATH by the end of the year, worst case in early 2025. Worth the wait if you ask me.
Think of what you have to lose right now vs what you can gain. If you bought at 60k you will never be down more than 30% because that's already way below the mining cost and 200 WMA.
In 6 months the 200WMA is going to be at 40k.
What's the best that can happen short term? Bitcoin will 2x in the next run up, reaching over $100k per coin. You have to decide if this is OK with your plans or not.

Big negative news can dump the crypto market and some positive news can also have a bad effect on the crypto market, like the German government's curfew is currently dumping Bitcoin, and the news of Mt Gox's payment is also having a negative effect on the price of Bitcoin.  In the current scenario, it is believed that there could be a big dump in the price of Bitcoin.  Because after getting the money back from Mt Gox many people will sell bitcoins due to which a large amount of bitcoins will be input in the market which may affect the price.  I think the price of bitcoin may come around $40k as well.  There is no guarantee that this will happen but I think there is a possibility.

No, I am not worried about the German government selling off 50k BTC because the Bitcoin market has the ability to rebound and even record new ATH when it rallies coming from a dip.  The Bitcoin history shows how Bitcoin recovers when it gets dumped.


The positive perspective i have in mind in this event is that people is given a chance to accumulate.  Those who had sold their BTC at the higher price can re-enter the market adding more support to the demand.  The current market drop is also a good time to DCA.


Who in the right mind will sell when he knows that the incoming Bitcoin rally to a new height is coming?  Besides, it is not all negative news in the past several months in fact this March BTC recorded its new ATH and was hovering above $60k before this current dump.

Actually its most waiting news by all investor to buy back bitcoin if the German government want to make bitcoin dump until $50k, many people get advantage to buy back when bitcoin have large correction and become right moment for them already prepare large fund to invest in bitcoin. Its not first time with the government ideas make bitcoin dump because China as the top country have several time make bad news by banned bitcoin but never can't stop for seeing bitcoin reach most higher price than before.
I believe its manipulation only from whales or big investors making bad news and take benefit for buy back during many people get panic after selling their bitcoin due correction price.
Believe or not the whales behind this happening more excited to buy back bitcoin and take around one weeks later they will publish with good news and make bitcoin recovery in short term to the higher price.

Actually, I'm thankful they've caused this price drop. I never thought we would see Bitcoin below $60k again. How could I have expected a nation to suddenly dump $3 billion worth of Bitcoin into the market? The Bitcoin price is predictably unpredictable, as always.  :P

I will never understand why anyone would sell the most precious thing on Earth for a piece of paper that can be printed out of thin air. (And is being printed like that, already.)

If they will, then a price dump is expected to be seen but it is a ground enough to worry the situation because that is bitcoin and after the dump, recovery will take. So many events like this that happened in the past and look, we are still moving forward.

No, it wasn't a big deal as dumping prices is not the thing we are afraid of because we are immune already to such market activities. Instead, make this a reason to buy more bitcoin is cheap while other people are selling low. But I don't see the German government will do that and not a wise decision indeed. So I guess, this is just a rumor, it only just creates panic for doubtful people but not for the real investors. I could even say that many people are waiting for the dump to enjoy the discounts.

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/07/13/oWXMq.png

The recovery has started and we will see Bitcoin breaching its new ATH in some months. This is a phase that everyone knows Bitcoin goes through after creating a new ATH. It might be new for those who have recently started where as it is a fact that Bitcoin price always reacts in the same manner whenever it comes up after halving. This year would be the first when Bitcoin created a new high it is still hovering around $50K price. A lot of money if coming in the form of ETFs & I am convinced that it will continue as the rich have got the opportunity to control Bitcoin with ETFs.

Never worried about it. Never worried about anybody dumping. But sometimes I'm a bit annoyed at those who have spaghetti hands. They are fair weather Bitcoin supporters, solid advocates when the market is doing good, but it only takes one news for them to scamper offloading their coins, making a deep correction a self-fulfilling prophecy. I think the coins from the German government weren't enough to pull the price down below $60,000. But it happened thanks to those who anticipated the effects of the sell-off and do their own dumping.

I personally no worried about the current market conditions and in fact more and more people are entering. This is just a mental battle, if you get used to it, I think this is a normal condition and only a market correction afterwards BTC previously rose high and of course it is not forbidden to sell our holdings if we already have it. However, I believe that the government there has a further plan for what has been done to realize their Economic Policy as well as what has been planned before although some of them have also suggested not to sell all their BTC shares for a while and keep them as reserve assets.

Imho, they are simply treating bitcoin as any other seized asset like car, house etc. I don't think that they bother with speculation because if they did, they would sell it few months ago when bitcoin was much higher or they would sell it much slower in order not to affect price that much.

Keep in mind that Germany's budget for 2024 is close to 500 billion euro, so few billions from selling bitcoin is peanuts for them and probably explains why they are selling it so fast.

I welcome with open hands every Black Friday sale. ;D

Especially when no-coiners (and even Bitcoin newcomers) start pestering me about "why does Bitcoin drop?". ;)

I had told them it wasn't a good idea to buy at 70k and above (but it was a good idea to sell some satoshis for daily expenses).

Red = buy (DCA in)
Green = sell (DCA out)

Eventually I believe Germany will be forced to buy BTC at higher prices.

Here's why:

https://rarehistoricalphotos.com/hyperinflation-weimar-republic-1922/
https://brandonquittem.com/bitcoin-rhythms-of-history/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2024/03/20/china-will-be-ready-to-invade-taiwan-by-2027-us-admiral-says/

(don't bother to comment if you don't thoroughly read all the links)

I agree that they probably already had processes in place for how to handle seized funds and this wasn’t some decision someone made because they were speculating about price and future events. Sure, it’s a huge mistake and they’ll regret it, but I also wouldn’t doubt if they begin accumulating BTC according to their rules at some point as well.

I agree with this - bitcoin is treated the same as any other asset confiscated by the German government and they don't seem to care much about the impact of its sale. If they really wanted to make huge profits - then the German government could probably hold on to the bitcoin longer and take advantage of the cycle's rise higher and sell it. However, this has happened and now we can only hope that the market will recover even though there is still FUD circulating.

No? Why would I? It is their loss if they still want to sell from these prices and as you probably see, we are already recovering from the recent dump so It looks like the German gov bamboozled themselves. The coins are always moving from the weak hands to strong hands. The German gov sold, it means there is 1 less weak hand in the markets and many more strong hands. Lots of people bought them cheap coins thanks to the German gov. Their sacrifice will not be forgotten.

We don't know if the German government will buy more Bitcoin from now on. We do not know whether the price will rise from here. Maybe they are expecting a drop in price and will buy more. We don't know the answers to these, but there is one thing we do know: Bitcoin can always find a buyer at any price. Today the German government sells Bitcoin, tomorrow someone else sells it, but Bitcoin always finds buyers.

I wonder whether they will buy Bitcoin again in the future. We'll see if they made this sale to avoid buying Bitcoin again or because they wanted to buy more Bitcoin at a lower price.

I'm not worried about the temporary price effect of selling bitcoins held by someone. I don't think the whole bitcoin market will collapse if they sell bitcoins. If there are buyers for Bitcoin there is no chance for the price to drop at any stage. There has already been an assumption that Bitcoin will fall in recent times, and it is not unusual for a small price drop to occur during long bullish periods, and any event during that time is responsible for a major fall in the crypto market. But in reality such decline was normal. That is, if the market is bullish, there will be price correction. Can't say dump for any other reason. Also, there is a huge supply of bitcoins in the entire world and I would never see it hard for the German government to sell some bitcoins.

I'm not sure about others but I'm thankful that they dumped their 50k Bitcoin and because of that dump I was able to accumulate some Bitcoin at cheap rates and also accumulated some very good altcoins at unbelievable values.

Many weak hand got worried after hearing about German government's Bitcoin dumping and about Mt. Gox's Bitcoin crediting but I actually found those as opportunity to accumulate more Bitcoin and some altcoins. Some people were so worried that they started believing that this bull run is over.

This is surely not the most terrible news we have seen on the network, so there is no need to be too worried about this, i don't even think the price dumped too much, and it is already back up to $58k. Selling your coins because a centralized government is selling theirs is stupid, except you are a short term buyer, who only plans to make profit from short term movements. The market is going to settle, especially after the Mt. Gox's repayments, then we can probably see BTC start rising very fast.

How is that DCA if you are trying to time the market? I mean, the main advantage of it is that you don't have to obsess yourself about the price and constantly track it and instead just invest in regular intervals no matter the price.


How do you mean "buy bitcoin again"? Germany was selling seized bitcoin, they didn't buy it in the past and now selling for a profit.

At the moment I still consider myself as a new person when talking about bitcoin because I have only been here for a few years, but when saying that worrying about what Germany is doing can make the price of bitcoin decline again I don't think so. Because after all, even though I am still new, I feel how the previous decline occurred for bitcoin and feel the extraordinary increase again until now. So instead of being worried I think it can be a good momentum to increase my load again if bitcoin has decreased due to Germany selling their assets.

Not intending to be naive so as not to panic but indeed with a further goal, I feel that something like this should be used as an opportunity for us to make purchases especially with market sentiment that can be very fast especially if we still remain in a zone that is very good for bitcoin then worrying will only make us forget our real goals.