Bitcoin Forum

I think the rally of the past month or so proves that we're in a major Elliott wave now (what do you call a bigger wave?).  Many indicators have turned bullish for the first time in months... if you look on bitcoincharts and click a random one with 1-day intervals, it has probably turned long-term bullish.  We could see triple digits next year!

Agreed, I'll still be paying close attention to the 4-5, but things are looking up.

this has been obvious since i put up my only 2 threads ever in this Wild West forum a while back.

haha, people like Nagle were still here back then.  Now it's only proudhon and he's not trolling anymore.

yeah, i took a real beating from all the trolls back then.  wasn't fun but i had to defend what i think is a revolutionary achievement.

We are in the process of a reversal but I think that for a final confirmation the $3.8 - $4 range must be broken. That would turn the tide but even that is not enough for the market to revert to a super bullish state. Reaching important targets around $7 would probably be enough to change the minds of the pessimists as well.

While I acknowledge this, I don't want it to happen too fast. We don't want to repeat what happened in June. I'm quite confident that it won't happen because everyone now knows what can happen and there are more experienced speculators trading now than there were then. It's unlikely that people will make the same mistakes twice. But we'll see what happens, greed could take over and then we will see a repeat.

I bought in at $14 as a total nube, and slowy watched my initial investment disappear (until it occured to me I could just sell my bitcoins and wait for a better price).
Since then I've watched the charts daily, read all the news and at $2.35 I bought in again. I think a lot of people have had similar experiences and have learned a lot in the past few months

After losing all of my Bitcoin play money shorting at the wrong time, I have to agree that the general trend has changed. Now comes the rationalization necessary to invest more dollars. I'm sure I will act smarter this time.

I've "only" lost half of my short money at present; I keep wondering if I should kill the short while I still have something left at Bitcoinica, or just let it sit and either get liquidated or hopefully ride out this bump in price. I'm still far from convinced that we'll continue going up, mostly because all the talk of BTC having "sound fundamentals" seems like lunacy to me. I'm here because I have access to a reasonable set of hardware which allows me to mine for BTC. I made some money earlier when pricing was higher during the bubble, but all along I was selling everything I mined because I didn't expect prices to stay up. The $2-$3 range is where I expect BTC to settle for some time, and right now we're above that, but we could experience another bubble and hit $30+ again. My mining equipment hopes that's the case, while my Bitcoinica short is hedging we'll be back down into the low 2s in the next week or two.

I have to say that I am delighted to find that you can be wrong given your unbelievable series of high precision wins and prediction for a long term decline.  I hope that you are simply very good at short term market prediction and suck at secular market calls.  But, as always, I remain prepared for any eventuality...emotionally and monetarily at least.

Hopefully this remains true

omg this rally is huge! High: 3.8! We just beat the previous high :O

We're going to 4, everyone.

edit: Anyone see that plateau after $4 in depth?  Yeah, watch out for that.
The lack of asks is what drives a bubble.  Growth pattern -> people afraid to sell, asks wiped out constantly -> More growth.

Yes! YES!!

It looks to be about 20kbtc to take it to $5.1 (and $4 broke as I'm typing)

Maybe. Bitcoin has breeched the June channel, but has not definitively broken from the Oct-November bouncing pattern. 19 October may have begun a 3-3-5 flat. I think you should wait for this rally's correction and third wave before declaring 'proofs' on the yearly trend.

I take the recent behaviour of the market as a sign of a confirmed reversal.

You should look also volume, not only price action, especially the net volume or the difference beetween uptick and downtick volume, you could compute it only if you have all the historical Intraday Tick by Tick data of mtgox and the sierrachart trading platform.
Since november low the cumulative difference is +154000 btc, not much; at the time of the all time high at 32$ it was +741000 btc, now there are more bitcoins around compared to 5 months ago, so higher you go more difficult it is with the same amount of net volume. We need more buyers today to reach higher prices again.

the Understatement of the Year

Let's see if the bears can regain control.

Naaa, this is just expected panic, hehe

Looks like a determined bear-bot.

As much as I'm happy about the recent rally, I don't think prices much above 4 will be sustainable throughout the upcoming year. It's probably fair to say that the slow-motion bursting of the June bubble is now over and that the market has found the bottom for now. However, I fully expect 3$ to be tested again during the next few months - maybe right after the holiday-season.

With Bitcoin, also the "slope of enlightenment" will be a very bumpy ride.

After every rally, there's a correction... I can't see bears regaining control yet.

Love those corrections. Prolly gonna buy some more if we get close to 3,70ish. It was a resistance zone when we rallied, it's most likely going to be a support zone this time. Let's see how this turns out =)

Exactly, that rally was huge!

The good thing is that people aren't holding their bitcoins as long, and throw their 10,000BTC purchases up as asks almost as soon as they buy them.  Hopefully this will serve to smack these moments of irrational exuberance in the face.

Bitcoin is likely to correct to the suggestive iv fourth wave price range (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49462.msg647042#msg647042) of three weeks ago. It is the motion from that ~$3 range that distinguishes 'more of the same' from 'yearly reversal'.

netrin just linked to one, no?  netrin's view seems to be that the price is going to go back down into the 2s - a view I'm not unsympathetic to.

Now who'd have guessed that ;)

 ;D

I am hopeful about this as well since I will tank up again if it happens.

I have significant funds which did not get employed because we never got to sub-$2.00 levels.  The recent mini-rally here and continued lack of system defects adds to the confidence I have in the base value of the system so I would likely do another relatively large buy-in in the mid $2.00 range.

Unlike a lot of more clever traders, I have never liquidated any of my holdings and have no plan of doing so.  I've got the cojones to double-down on a decline, but not to unload.  I guess that is because I am bullish, or at least very hopeful, about the long term potential of the system.

I suppose another factor is that I would have to trust an exchange with more money than I wish to in order to be a big-time trader even if I did have confidence that I could accurately time the cycles.  And yet another factor is that I have chronic paranoia that the exchanges will be shut down and it will become much more cumbersome, dangerous, and protracted to buy in in a modest way.

One thing is sure - since the decline in June until  December all rallies were only bounce backs after large drops.  Now this is finished.  The first rally from 2 to 3 was the first one that went higher than the previous large drop, now this is confirmed with another one.

Anyone looking for seasonal patterns must study mid October: a clear motive (zig-zag) through the end of the month, followed by a messy bounce down, and a clear impulsive wave up since mid November.

The optimistic view might label November as a failed fifth wave, followed by a strong reversal. I really 'want' that to be true, but I'm afraid it's not honest. It's a pretty clear 3-3-5 flat correction signaling 'more of the same' since June. Further more $0.6-$1.1 is suggested by the March fourth wave.

As of this morning, I have no strong position, and await better signals.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&l=1&t=S&c=1&s=2011-10-1&e=2012-1-1&i=Hourly&width=600&noheader=1&height=300

I'm glad somebody is taking a position contrary to S3052's recent enthusiasm.

It would be boring if all would agree with me  ;)

The market will decide who is right or wrong. In my p.o.v the market dynamics have changed a lot. The current rise is very healthy , supported by strong volume.
Sure it will not go up in a straight line. There will be corrections along the way, but I see likelihood of 60-65% that we will not see bitcoin prices below 2 $ in the next weeks and months any more. More details and alerts in the subscriber section.

I am willing to put my money where my mouth is.

Proudhon bet you 50 Bitcoins that the price doesn't dip below $2 in the next 2 weeks.

Let me know if you want to go in.

Next two weeks?!

I accept.  Is it a deal, proudhon?

I don't think that's a fair bet. It's like asking the bulls to bet that the price rises above $8 in the next two weeks. You also win if there's no movement at all. Perhaps add the option of a draw, suggest less than $3 vs. above $5?

* unless... did someone already made that claim (<$2 in 2 weeks)?

lol I thought you had something worked out with Proudhon and were offering it to S3052... :(

This thread has some serious pronoun issues. Who and to whom about what are we talking about?

I don't put that much faith in Elliot waves so I have a different viewpoint. I tend to agree with S3052 right now, we are very likely completely changing course right now. This isn't straightforward though, we could be bouncing between $3 and $4 for a while. Price below $3 seems very unlikely to me at this point.

Lately I have come to the conclusion that we could be on our way to a price way past the June bubble. But it won't be the same as it was in June, the reasons for investing in Bitcoin will be more grounded to sanity instead of greed.

This is because it's becoming clear that Bitcoin doesn't die easily. It's not a company that will simply go under. Taking into account the hardships the Bitcoin-world has endured, it will literally seem like a miracle when it starts rising from the ashes, which it is doing now.

This will lead to people appreciating Bitcoin for what it is, a highly robust technology that has the ability to make storing and moving money cheaper, easier and more reliable than ever. And it makes 95% of bank activities obsolete. A lot of intermediaries will become obsolete on all levels leading to cheaper prices for everything.

This is obviously a long term view. Very long term. But I think that we're going to see the first real developments toward this in 2012. My investment position is mirroring my views. Which means I hold a long position and have no interest in selling unless a clear bubble forms again. And fundamentally single digit prices are not even close to a bubble, they are more like serious undervaluation for a technology as solid as Bitcoin.

And on another note, I still hold my view that for the skeptics to start believing in Bitcoin rising from the ashes we needs to reach $7. But this is a good start.

I agree.  It will be a bumpy ride to $7... market making bot engaged.

How about prices below 3?

bitcoin prices below 3 $ would be rather bearish at this stage

Down to 3.75 already, that was a nice bull trap.  

Nah it was just Zhoutong needing $$$ for hookers and blow for Christmas  :D

I see this as an expected correction after a rally that clearly overshot. It was a bull trap only to short term players. Now we are entering the real trap zone and I can give one hint. It's not a bull trap.

Especially now that we got some pretty good press coverage thanks to the rally, an overly bearish correction is very unlikely and the area further down will most likely be a massive bear trap.

LOL

wow, that really caught me off guard.

Isn't Bitcoin technically a fiat currency? (not to start a flame war or anything, but I mean under a technical definition)

EDIT: (3/13/2013) I wonder sometimes if the word "fiat" refers to the traditional "government" or the latin term of "let it be done". The first country to do fiat currency was actually China, with the intention of having it be converted every three years at a specific rate. Later on it would be used in the US by banks as a way to pay off taxes, and eventually such bills would become the only way to pay taxes. Most countries then adopted such a system, and we've been willingly following it ever since.

no

Who formally authorized bitcoin again?  Was it Obama, or maybe David Cameron?

Well I guess it depends on how you store it. If its on a HD then it has an intrinsic value of the HD, on one of Casaacius' gold coins would be a good place to store them. :)

But, I would think you are correct. It's only value is in what the community gives it.

The definitions of 'fiat money' given by Oxford, Webster, and Wiktionary all include 'government decree'.

The etymology, from Latin comes to English in 1630s as "let it be done". I presume similar to French 'faire' - to do or make.

The very first references in English are translations of Genesis, 'fiat lux', 'γενηθήτω φῶς' (genēthētō phōs), '','יְהִי אוֹר' (yehiy 'or), 'let there be light'. The evolution of usage is first God at creation, then government stole the term, perhaps now the people can now repossess the term. Prometheus (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prometheus), baby! According to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let_there_be_light), the phrase is often used for its metaphorical meaning of dispelling ignorance. How appropriate then to refer to bitcoin as the new fiat lux - dispelling ignorance.

http://genaud.net/bitcoin/2011/prometheus_bitcoin.png

And in the end God said,     Let there be bitcoin:     and there was bitcoin And God saw bitcoin,     and it was good:     and God divided the worthy     from the worthless.

It could be considered fiat in the sense that code is law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Lessig#.22Code_is_law.22).