Bitcoin Forum

I saw this poll in a Mt Gox sub-reddit. It may not be as bad as we thought.

https://talkimg.com/images/2024/07/19/4TNlm.png

How many people would be given the coins? I believe they would be thousands of people. But according to the poll, it is just 260 people that voted.


No evidence that many among the voters are among the people.

Is the number of response on that survey is the total number of eligible users who will get their refund? I don’t know the exact value but 400+ users seems very low count for the total user of the popular crypto exchange that time considering how few the number of CEX.

It’s good to see that many answer to the poll that they will hold but let’s see what will be the actual impact since decision making of Bitcoin holders always varies if they hold already the Bitcoin while the price keeps rising or dumping.

You can take that poll as seriously as if it was created here, where anyone can vote on it. :P With that being said, I don't think that selloff will be as bad as many think because bitcoin is still way below the previous ath and the peak of the bull run is nowhere close yet.


Since poll is completely anonymous, we have no idea how many of those who voted actually have money there. My guess is not many.

mate it has been said that there were THOUSAND of users who fell victims to mt gox. this poll is barely 1/4th of the victims to be compensated so we can’t make a proper conclusion just from a poll from reddit

i am sure a lot would sell their bitcoins if they need to use it and/or if the current price is at a good place to sell

You can not trust result of such survey because people can simply answer for fun, but hide their own plans.

Some people even don't use X and platform that conducts the survey so when you have a sample that does not represent the target population, result does not make sense.

Assume if they sell all their bitcoins, will Bitcoin drop to $20k or $15k, I don't see how price will drop to $15k again. That bottom price will never be seen in 2024 and 2025 and Bitcoin might never look back that price area.

Each new market cycle, new bull run, price will make a new ATH but more than that, it sets up a new solid bottom, support area as foundation for a next cycle. Now in 2024, if you tell me Bitcoin will fall to $1,000, I will laugh but this is fear in the market in 2019, 2020 years.

I agree.

Feels to me like people in all over social media, that are shilling their bags just before they sell just to get the price up. It's like a public secret, or non-verbal agreement. Everyone who is near selling are saying that they hodl, because they have zero reason to admit they would dump.

Ask yourself, what would you say if you would get that btc and you were ready to sell? Would you create fear by admitting that everyone is probably selling or telling that you gonna have diamond hands.

Not to mention that i don't believe for a moment that more then fraction of the ones who answered are mt gox btc holders.

Researchers don't need to get a response from the entire population before they investigate an event and make predictions. They just collect a sample from the population and engage in analysis. 400 responses might give a glimpse of how other respondents might also behave. Anyway, I don't trust OP's survey because its validity might be flawed.


Many of these Mt. Gox creditors have experienced many bull runs. They have experienced how thier worth of their Bitcoin increased over the years. So I can assume that many of them are aware that if they keep their coins for a few months or years they might make more profit.

It works both ways. If you want to hold, you don't care what option you choose. There's no reward for being honest in the poll and no way to check if you actually are. Many people troll in the Internet and choose the most ridiculous answers. If I wanted to buy more, or hold, I could still choose the "sell immediately" option just to make fun of people who are scared of dumps.

Also, there's no way to confirm that people who vote there will receive any coins from Gox.


I would never dump it all. This is plain stupid. There are only 2 smart options for real Gox victims who want to sell.
1. Sell their claims. By doing so they would have received the cash years ago and have the liquidity to do whatever they please, start a business, pay for education and so on.
2. Slowly sell when demand arises. For instance now we're in a bull market and 2024- early 2025 should be the bull market years. Historically this is the best time to own bitcoin in a 4 year cycle.
Even if I needed to sell I'd do it slow, 10% a month or even less.


Exactly!

I don't think we can rely on this post because of the number of participants who had participated in the poll.
Besides that we don't even know whether these participants are even going to receive bitcoin from Mt.Gox or not.
The major thing to consider is that even in the poll there were around 40% people who decided to sell immediately.
So even that would be a substantial amount of selling pressure even if it is for a short term alone.

They had to wait 10 years to get some of their bitcoins back, so I think even if they all sold at the same time after receiving their bitcoins, it would be a good thing. Good for them because they waited so long to get their bitcoin back and good for us because if the market reacts negatively to this, it will create more opportunities for us to buy cheap bitcoin. No matter what scenario happens, I don't see anything too bad if we have optimistic thoughts.

Bitcoin's volatility is inevitable because bitcoin cannot increase forever nor decrease forever, whether bitcoin's volatility is good or bad will depend on how we view it. If you want to buy more bitcoin at a cheaper price then I don't think the Mt.gox event is a bad thing for you.

There is no way to verify if the voters are actually investors from MtGox. So this good for fun but I won't speculate on the basis of the result. I am sure a lot of people will be eager to sell some of their holdings so that they can recover there investment. Yes it may not be as bad as we think but there will be increased selling pressure coming in the market.

But these are all speculations. The reality could be very different. I wish I had invested back then. It surely looks like a lottery winning. Let's not take such kind of anonymous polls too seriously.

It's interesting to see a poll on the issue, but it's also important to note (and I agree with the concerns raised by others in the thread) that a poll on subreddit with less than 500 total votes is not representative. I don't know how many people are going to get their compensations in the Mt. Gox case, but I've seen estimates of 24,000 victims. It's possible to get a representative poll with around 500 votes to understand the opinion of 24,000 people, but random polling on Reddit is not the way to do it. After all, it's possible that people who vote for any of those options are not even among the victims.

Even all of Mt.Gox's victims want to dump all of their coins, the impact is almost nothing.

Mt.Gox owe $9 Billion (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/05/mt-gox-begins-repaying-bitcoin-to-creditors-a-decade-on-from-collapse.html), right now the Bitcoin's market cap is $1,312,570,339,820 and the price is $66,530, if they dump all the coins, it means the market cap would be $1,303,570,339,820 and make Bitcoin price becomes $66,076. Are people panic when Bitcoin price drop for $500? I don't think so.

Even if the vote is not anonymous and they claimed that they have money their, exchanges and other organizations or people may not be interested to find out to know if it  is true of not. Like I have said before, you can not compare 260 people that voted to as much as 140,000 people that are going to be given the coins. The best people that can make this accurate are people that want to distribute the coins but they are not interested. But there are many people that will vote for hold but sell just like you will see on telegram group of a new project which you will see people posting that they will hold but the market price of the coin will start to fall and continues to fall.

This is just a poll and it means nothing because most of the MtGox account owners are certainly not hanging on reddit this days.
It's more likely that this is just a wishful thinking, reversed psychology coming from minority, and many traders probably voted No for obvious reasons.

At last, someone mentioned it. With a market cap of 1.3 Trillion dollars, are we really speculating what's going to happen if $9 Billion is suddenly dumped in the market? Bitcoin already has $28 billion worth of volume today, as we speak, why is it such a concern on what's going to happen with Mt. Gox Bitcoins? Let's just focus on the positive part of this story, which is the reimbursement of thousands of victims, something no one was ever expecting after such a long time. One way or another, this incident is drawing attention to cryptocurrencies, and I highly doubt it has a negative effect.

Wait what? That's not how it works. Marketcap is just the combined value of all coins.

The depth of the dip depends on the depth of liquidity on the buy walls and the speed of the dumping matters too, because we don't know how fast markets can absorb the dump.

If buy wall is thin, and if other people would join because of the speculation. It can dip fast and who knows where the main buy support of market markers is. Shorters are also most likely trying to make money too when it happens, so before the squeeze happens, things can look pretty dark. If market makers set up huge walls up high, we might not dip at all.

I like your point that we should look on the bright side of the Mt.gox incident because people finally got their money back after years of waiting. But to say that Mt.gox's $9 billion won't impact the market is not true. The German government sold just over 50kBTC worth $3 billion and caused bitcoin to drop 15%, while Mt.gox owns 142kBTC, I don't think it will have a smaller impact. Not to mention many other people will panic because of this news and will also sell their bitcoins, leading to market panic and the inevitable dumping of bitcoins.

I don't know what scenario will happen, but if someone wants a scenario similar to the news about the German government, bitcoin correction is inevitable.

The sale of the German government was also met with a lot of people judging their move, you'd see articles everywhere which may have caused a larger mayhem than it actually was. You're saying people might panic because of the news, what kind of news are those that are going to create a chaos in the market? Old investors from selling the Bitcoins owed by Mt.Gox since 2014? Probably not, and even if it does happen, the effect will be minimal.

The result of this poll is not even close to the total number of people that are to benefit from Mt. Goz as they set to return assets to users for over a decade now. They are genuine voters that will benefit from the returned asset but for not having the total number of people to benefit from it not voting, then it could as well be that they are almost certainly (about 90%) going to sell their bitcoins when given.


Sell of bitcoins by Mt. Gox beneficiaries will not cause the market to crash that much because I don’t see that many of them will want to sell it, even if they do, it’ll be a little quantity. If they’d wanted to hold their bitcoins till now, they might not have that patience. Over the years, the closing price of bitcoin as of 2014 was just $320 and today bitcoin is currently trading around $64K and have rose up to $70K+ in this year only. With this, not all of them will want to sell all as it shows how prospective bitcoin will be in the coming years and the bull run fast around the corner to see another all time-high of bitcoin.

The previous user I quoted was comparing it to the sale of the German government, which had a significantly larger volume than Mt. Gox's funds, valued at $8 billion. According to the poll, I know that the sample size isn't enough to come up with a verdict; supposedly more than 50% will not sell their bitcoins immediately, which means that only $4 billion will be dropped in the market for sale. Certainly, this poll isn't enough to determine what's going to happen, but it goes without saying that there's no way all of the bitcoins will be put up for sale.

Not so normative polls are made because we never know the voters who vote for the poll whether the voters are really the owners of money in Mt.Gox or not.
At first glance, although it cannot be justified in my opinion, it is only to confuse the situation in the midst of the positive trend that is happening for the current Bitcoin market price.
A question like this arises, how meaningful is this opinion poll? to analyze it, maybe this source can be read.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/mt-gox-creditors-hodl-btc-payouts-reddit