Bitcoin Forum

  The Future End of BTC Rising and Falling?

Bitcoin is known for now, as a crypto currency that can rise and fall at any time due to lots of constraints and attacks (news) but I strongly believe in my own opinion or thoughts that BTC falling after it's rising could stop in the future after multiple halving if the first and any other or all statements below holds.
1. If Bitcoin is globally accepted by the masses, governments, and other sectors to be allowed for all kinds of transactions.
2. If there exists no longer any oppositional speech or attack from the influential men, regulatory bodies of any kind or web3 products.
3. If there is no longer any Bitcoin halving.

because bitcoin functionality comes at a mining cost.. and is a international currency.. so there is naturally a wide spread of speculation of the market price possibility at any given time

take for instance if the low average electric price for a fair collective of miners starts at <$0.04
take for instance if the high average electric price for a fair collective of miners tops at >$0.50

means there is a wide speculation window at any point that the price can swing upto 12x+ from its periodic bottom

this is seen for example where if in the pacific islands(most expensive to mine) their costs per BTC to mine are several hundred thousand dollars. they wont mine but would be happy to market buy even if the market shifted up into several hundred thousand of dollars, as its still cheaper than mining bitcoin

and then in the mid/northern-Eurasia regions where electric costs are low. they would mine and want to sell even if the market price was low
this creates a wide window of speculative possibility. where the window itself also increases as the hashrate/difficulty increases over periods

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the temporary media drama just causes little waves in the market.. emphasis temporary events. try not to get emotional about the temporary events and instead plan for the main market cycles and statistics of the long term. then use the short lived media drama to benefit the most. for instance, any temporary dip should be seen as discount days

Thanks a lot Sir, for your thoughts and great opinion but how would you see BTC state when halving and mining has ended.

mining will never end unless the whole consensus decide to swap to silly stupid things like PoS

there will always be a mining cost of PoW that worldwide would be a gap of a 12 factor as long as electric had a world wide gap of 12 factor
all that changes is if its a window gap of 12x that is worth $10-$120  or $1m-$12m or somewhere in between

the position of that bottom top window is depending on participants and competition but the economics of the gap of the international window of speculation will always be wide if there is always a world wide electric difference that wide

I wish we could all snap our fingers and create a perfect Bitcoin wonderland too.  But that's not how the world works.  Even if Bitcoin became more mainstream tomorrow, with perfect regulation and mass adoption new problems would pop up sooner or later.  That rollercoaster ride of up and down prices is in Bitcoin's DNA I think.  Maybe over decades it'll stabilize more if it survives and  yet it will always be a bit volatile since speculation, reactions to news, and shifts in supply and demand impact any asset, especially a global decentralized currency sailing uncharted waters.  We can hope for calmer seas but should expect some storms now and then.

Even if Bitcoin is globally accepted by everyone, including the government, like you said, it cannot make the price of Bitcoin stable because Bitcoin is not like a stable fiat currency. 

There will always be hate speech and unrealistic action by some non-Bitcoiners, as long as they don't like Bitcoin. Believe me, not everyone must like Bitcoin. 

I don't also think that the government will allow Bitcoin to take over the fiat currency for every transaction. Trump once said that he hates Bitcoin because it's competing against the dollar. 

Lastly, according to some experts, it's going to take about a century and some years before the last halving will take place, but that's not going to stop Bitcoin from being a POW coin. So, I don't think Bitcoin can go from its rising and falling algorithm to becoming a stable coin. 

This is not possible and your assumptions are wrong. Bitcoin is not the only asset that grows and fall but the only problem is that Bitcoin just like many other crypto has high volatility but it's that same volatility that attracts many people to buy Bitcoin. If it's investment and guaranteed, there are many other stocks that you can invest into and worry not much but the return Bitcoin has given to people over the years is more appreciable than other investments.

What I think will happen in the future is that the Volatility will reduced drastically because when the circulating supply is held by some people and only few remain by the public, there wouldn't be much to play around with and good news will surround Bitcoin most often to reduce price manipulation of fall and rice that happen most often in Bitcoin.

I think I'm the only person that don't really want the whole to adopt Bitcoin. I want it to be something entirely special on its own. I feel that if the whole world adopts Bitcoin, the government will then have full interest in it, and would like to have majority of control and even change the system from what it's currently is, they will change it in a way that will be suitable for them, and i wouldn't like such. So far we have seen how they are penetrating the crypto community, and I just don't like it.

Your points are very excellent Sir, but Sir, do you think people might abandon mining of BTC in the future after multiple halving due to high cost of mining ⛏️ and perhaps prefer buying BTC to mining it especially when the PoW reward is not worth energy and cost of mining ⛏️ on the long run?

It will still happen because after all it is one of the characteristics of bitcoin because indeed bitcoin fluctuations will continue to occur considering this is one of its uniqueness.
So this will not stop and I don't think we think about the word if because after all bitcoin will still work according to the conditions that have been set before, especially when talking about halving which can indeed be said to be one of the agendas in the original plan from bitcoin.

So that in the end the increase and decrease will clearly continue to occur and indeed it is a condition that is considered a balance because there can be no increase if there is no decrease especially that is what makes most like bitcoin because that is how bitcoin works even though the increase and decrease continue to occur but in the end the progress remains a good thing.

The government may control it indirectly from their regulations and speech Sir but having access to the system and controlling how Bitcoin works to suit them I don't think it might be easy in my own opinion since it's decentralized and one has to be on the system or network and also active except they group themselves together and gain 51% or over of the entire network.

Bitcoin has  always had volatility and the fact that it is now regarded officially as a commodity innwall street means that the price will always be in one of the two possible directions — up or down. So that's something that's not going to change. what might change however, is the volatility. We might see less and less volatility as the price reaches certain price levels and more people / nations get aboard our bandwagon. The speculation won't stopping especially now that more institutions, countries and big players want a piece of the Bitcoin pie.

Well, who knows what'll happen with Bitcoin mining costs in the future. we can't really predict that. Things like new hardware, electricity rates, and the whole economy can really change how profitable it is.  It's true that halving events reduce the block reward, but then the coin's price usually goes up to balance things out for them.  

I'd bet miners will keep at it as long as theyre making some profit .  But costs could get too high someday if power and equipment prices jump a lot higher than Bitcoin's value.

For now, let’s just settle with some flaws of bitcoin. However, with all these imperfections, if we are only aware on how to handle this calmly, we won’t get into getting trouble with bitcoin, but would still end up profitable at the end of the day. Sooner or later, when there are no longer contradicting institutions on bitcoin and everything will go smooth sailing, and bitcoin will become a global currency or a reserved one, at least we will be able to see bitcoin in a calmer and more peaceful bitcoin journey, patience is the key.

Thank you very much Sir for your great thoughts which I found spicy and juicy towards BTC future state regarding it's high volatility and multiple halving occurrence in relation to block rewards.

I do not think that these three will be the factor to end BTC's volatility.  The rise and fall of BTC market price is dictated by supply and demand.  I believe that Bitcoin will continuously rise and fall as long as the ratio of demand and supply keeps on changing.  For me, as long as Bitcoin has not been replaced by more sophisticated and advanced financial technology, its demand will keep on existing.

Miners as long as mining Bitcoin is profitable will continue to mine blocks full of transactions as a reward.  If there is no profit to be made on mining, it is obvious that most of these miners will stop pointing their hashes to the Bitcoin network.

The price of BTC will continue to fluctuate because there are always people who will cash out to take their profit.

Bitcoin is known to be volatile even a long time ago, it is not just now that it can rise and fall. Despite that, this is one of the reasons why many are investing in it, for being natural with its volatility. And no, its future won't stop because of this nature.

What's wrong with Bitcoin halving? I think that you need to do more research on why it is also an important factor in why the price and value of it are getting bigger over time. And as for the news, you don't classify it as something that will stop Bitcoin's future together with the government's intervention.

patience is key like you said Sir, as you had pointed, BTC has some flaws, the trilima problem which if any tech solves it will drastically shift attention, we believe that there is always something better and I also believe same, so let's watch patiently.

Bitcoin cannot become as stable as fiat, but it is inevitable that bitcoin will gradually become more stable and less volatile. Many years ago, bitcoin's volatility was huge and it even brought returns of thousands and millions of percent, but in recent years, that volatility is gradually shrinking. As bitcoin's capitalization becomes larger and larger, it means its volatility will gradually become smaller, I believe that at some point it will be as stable as gold.

Even gold and real estate, recognized assets that have existed for thousands of years, still have people who hate them and bitcoin is no exception.

In a latest statement, he revised that bitcoin is not competitive and will not harm USD. The current administration is hurting the USD :D :D :D. But bitcoin taking over fiat is impossible, that scenario will never happen. 

Wide adoption means more money into the market and more money means more trading volume thus more volatility. I think when more people are trading BTC they will be doing speculation on different levels. Which means some will hold, some will sell, some will buy, etc. The difference between demand and supply will be bigger if more people are trading in crypto. Although currently People (individuals hold most of the BTC).

And remaining amount is around 1,222,318.8 (https://bitbo.io/how-many-bitcoin/) Which means this amount will not be bought by one or more companies like Grayscale etc. However, some parts of it will be purchased by individuals from all over the world. This indicates that it will not be centralized ever until it's not forced to run on PoS consensus if it's possible now to shift! Overall I think we are safe even after the halving.

1.It has been stated multiple times that Bitcoin cannot become the one and only global currency. The BTC blockchain simply couldn't handle such huge amount of transactions.
2.Good luck with this. The FUDsters will exist as long as crypto exist. Some of the FUDsters are secret crypto supporters, but they keep spearing FUD because they want lower prices and bear markets to occur.
3.Why do you even care about the Bitcoin halving. They BTC halving usually builds hype, which helps for pumping the BTC price. The halving isn't a bad thing for the BTC world.
If you can't stand the fact that Bitcoin has a volatile price, just leave the BTC market and focus on other assets.

Thanks for your thoughts and opinion, let's keep enjoying it for the moment.

I don’t agree with your theory and your reasons of why we could experience of bitcoin falling in price can stop in future, the volatility of bitcoin have played a very important role of making it one by of the most sort after asset in the world and this volatility has also helped to regulate the market supply and demand so when the asset stops being volatile it means bitcoin is probably not in existence anymore.

Do you think the government will agree to people carrying out transactions that they have no control over? The fact that they can’t regulate anything will make it difficult to fully accept bitcoin.

Creating a perfect bitcoin can only be imagined but it will not be easy to achieve, I don’t see anything wrong with the rise and fall of it and bitcoin has served and is still serving its purpose. Whatever happens there will always be oppositional speech against it and if you holding bitcoin for investment purposes then you should be aware that every investment comes with its own risk.

If Bitcoin becomes widely accepted globally and gains strong support from governments and other sectors, it could definitely help stabilize its value. Reducing opposition and regulatory attacks would also play a big role. However, Bitcoin's volatility is also driven by market dynamics and investor sentiment, so while some factors can be controlled, others are inherent to the nature of crypto markets.

Thanks for your opinion and hope for a brighter future for BTC now that it's clear that Bitcoin is not in any competition with USD or any other Fiat currency but to become globally adopted and valuable in many or all sectors.

Don't you think at the end of it all happens that bitcoin would be a stable coin since it wouldn't be a volatile currency anymore? If it happens, what'd be its potential values as a hedge capitalized to distabilize global inflation? What about the hedge store of values? I guess if it does as thought, it'd be a failed attempt of Satohi Nakamoto's ideals towards his obligations to the bitcoin development.

I solidly agree with you Sir on the fact that BTC will not be centralized over time as the remaining quota can not be bought by only one person, firm or group and shifting away from PoW might not be an easy movement because BTC started from PoW and it's known for that, but we also believe that there is no impossibility though.

Some years back we were talking about global adoption of bitcoin like a big thing that will never happen or will take decades to happen. But today global adoption is here, ETF approval opened the door.

There's no technology or innovation without criticism, so we shouldn't expect that there will be a time when everyone will sing praises of Bitcoin

Is halving preventing adoption of bitcoin? I can say that halving is even playing a major role in adoption because it introduces the bull run and is a major factor of introducing newbies to the industry.

No Sir, if the whole world adopts Bitcoin, it's decentralized nature or degree will increase and making it to be more secured for any one or group of people to attack and control the BTC network to benefit them Sir, they only and can only attack BTC with their political speech( hate speech), regulations or news and can not revert control and benefits to suit themselves.

Even if bitcoin became accepted by the masses, this will not change things as much as you believe, the price of an asset is determined by the supply and the demand, and while the demand can change quite quickly, the supply is nowhere near as volatile, this is because unlike other assets its supply cannot change that quickly, so if for example the price of gold went through the roof, gold miners will try to mine more of it to sell it, which will increase the supply and lower its price, but in the case of bitcoin, more miners trying to get more bitcoin will simply increase the mining difficulty and they will be back in square one.

If more miners are mining ⛏️ and their is more difficulty in mining out coins everywhere then their will be higher price of BTC and many holding BTC wouldn't want to sale thereby making BTC rise and fall price or high volatility to be very minimal, I think so Sir.

Falling and The Rising has been the method of Bitcoin since bitcoin has been established in 2009 so it cannot change the method of Bitcoin so I believe that instead of Bitcoin not increase or not experience decrease There will no no longer been existence of Bitcoin so I understand from my own way that the falling of Bitcoin is what makes Bitcoin to have a value for the investors but many people who is new for the cryptocurrency investment and mostly Bitcoin when not to understand such concept because what they always have in mind is for Bitcoin to continue to increase in value

Anyone that want to do bitcoin should already know how unstable bitcoin can be when it comes to price and I don't know why that is what is bothering people instead of them to buy even when the price is down, but all some people do is to complain about the price and even claim that they can not invest their money on something that is not physical, everybody just keep having a different mentality about bitcoins.  They should keep complaining when people are busy buying making use of this opportunity. Step by step bitcoin ia already gaining global recognition, because the number of people going into bitcoin is increasing everyday, that is to show that people are actually very interested in bitcoin, and we don't even need the government because even with the government bitcoin is doing very fine. volatility Is what makes bitcoin stable and more interesting because the price can not keep going up.

Okay, if the list only works with the first statement being true, then it's already unlikely to happen. Bitcoin is still used by less than 5% of the population, and it's been 15 years since its creation. Also, unless we're going to live in a very autocratic world, there will be pluralism of opinions, freedom of expression and freedom of media, so there will be enough people against Bitcoin (just because there are always people against any idea). As for the third point, halvings will continue well into the next century, until all BTC is mined. So we won't see it happen in our lifetimes.

Even bitcoin may not have any value is still possible. The author of the tread seems to think Bitcoin will be stable?  I don't think so, even if stable it is the destruction of Bitcoin. Because it may be centralization by the government. I still hope that bitcoin maintains its legacy with a decentralized system. Which makes us not dependent on third parties. The law of demand and availability of goods may occur. If bitcoin is really valuable and there are more and more fans it is possible. But when Bitcoin is stable and it is only a transactional tool, it does not seem to be a revolution in the traditional financial system as desired like goverment because the sistem sentralized.

You are right Sir that halving will not end in our lifetimes but I believe that there would be a shift after it ends even though it's for the next generation, but for now let's enjoy it for this current century.