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It all started from this thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5507523.0)  with a gambler considering on betting exactly on 1.50 odds 3 times a week.
I thought this would be an inclusive experiment since it would be about fixed odds and cherry-picked matches, pretty much gambling on what matches to gamble, which leads to a lot of bias in the results, then, how about betting on all football matches from 5 leagues, only on the favorite under 1.5 to win, would those "sure" lol, prove to be easy money or an easy money pit that grows with each week played? My experience with betting on the favorite in horse racing tells me the latter, but who knows?

The experiment is pretty simple,
- Each Thursday-Friday I pick all matches from 5 leagues in which a team is under 1.5 to win  (odds from Stake  ;))
- A bet is considered at 1 unit, so a loss is -1 , a win at 1.25 is +0.25
- The game will stop at -100, if we reach that point I think it's obvious the strategy is flawed to the max

Fast forward, Round 1!
LE:
Because too many are confused about the screenshot,no, it's not a multiplier, I just added them to save space.
Each bet is on an individual match!
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/08/30/9FbJd.png

6 matches
Total Stake Est. Payout
6.0            7.98

Update:
Since there is so much talk about multipliers I will track this too, for the 6 games above: Total Odds 5.59.
This will be done independently from the single bets.

Round 1 results
- Individual bets balance +0.27
- Multiplier balance -1

As the betting slip is getting long as you accumulate more, the chance to win will be reducing. It might not be in this bet but other bets. I guess going for 1.5 weekly would be good. You can get that from 2 or 3 matches.

I like the match that you selected this week but I do not think this would be good in long term. I will keep following this thread and see the results.

This is a good thread.

To me this could be very hard to secure winning, the above matches you picked play much more of "Over 1.5" so anything less than that could lead to possible lost. But then I can't be sure because most times these teams are crazy. What i does is that, I often choose teams that score above 'Over 1.5, and 2.5' with this it's very much easier at least picked two to four matches. But still the same if you are pretty much cool with your selection then let's watch how it goes.

Good luck mate, don't forget to update this thread here.

The experiment won't run on multipliers, but on individuals I had them selected like that because it was easier to rid.
Each bet will be on an individual game, 6 bets this round with 1 unit on each.

Multiplier at those low odds makes little sense to me honestly, way too risky for way too little.
Lateredit, now that I look again, one match lost even in single and you barely make 0.5, so maybe the multi is not as bad as I thought.


It's under 1.5 odds for the team to win, I'm not going for goals ;)

The number of picks for me is getting too long from when it got beyond three picks making your winning chances slimmer than a three game picks would do. What am saying is that if I were to go by this strategy follow your size of odds I would making sure to settle on not more than three games per bet.

Hence your option of matches as selected in the image appears to be good choice but don't forget that in every weekend one or two of those elite teams does pay the sacrifice of losing to the average team. However, let see how consistent it's goes for you in the future with the strategy

I have done this kind of experiment in the past and failed. Hopefully, you'll succeed so you can prove that this method works. Now, I'm more interested in betting on high odds, like 2.50 but not over 4.00. I haven't been able to draw a conclusion yet since I haven't consistently used this strategy; it’s just side betting when I feel bored or want some extra action. My main strategy is still focused on odds of at least 2.00, so I’ll aim to take 100% of my winnings.

Following this thread.

Thank you for conducting the experiment and being willing to share the results with us stompix.

Answering to your question (I'm a bit pessimistic when it comes to gambling) I think that it will be "an easy money pit that grows with each week played" as you said. Not flawed to the max to lead you to a -100, but not green either.

I hope I am wrong and you make some profits, but if this will be a long betting experiment, I think that the odds are staked against you.

@stompix, Good experiment.
I want to also take part in those six games, I like the challenge, I want to see what happens with low odds, Honestly, there are some choices you make that have a good chance, but the game is still a game, on the field will determine everything.

---

I will post my predictions, shortly after I finish the ritual.

Whether we are of the same mind for this bet or otherwise, give me a few hours.

My bet is for six games.

- Real Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompie= result (draw).
- FC Barcelona vs. Real Valla dollid= result (Barcelona).
- SSC Napoli vs. Parma Calcio 1913= result (Parma Calcio).
- FC Bayern Munich vs. SC Freiburg = result (Bayern Munich).
- Borussia Dortmund vs. FC Heidenheim= result (Heidenheim).
- Arsenal FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC= result (Arsenal).

I get you, going for an under 1.5 win selection is a good idea because, odds can sometimes act as a good example of the win probability if nothing else goes wrong during the game. However  the only problem I have with the strategy is numbers of selected game. In making my 1x2 win selection I prefer  going for just 2 games that would result  to a 2.0 odd or a maximum of 4 game selection. The longer the games the more it becomes difficult to win, but on a general note this strategy would work best especially the selection from different leagues which makes it more fun.

What a moment are you talking about single matches?
If yes then your choice of selection is good though. For a multiplier then it's a very hard game to win, but however I wish you good luck. Maybe I might start joining you   :-\.

I do not think going for 2 or 3 matches as multiplier is bad. I have used it very well and the result is good. But the problem that most people have is that they may not go for the right matches. But going for more than 2 or 3 matches is very risky. I have tried 5 several times before and I lost the bet than going for 2 or 3 matches. I mostly go for just 2 matches. I also noticed that when I bet less often, I win more than when I bet often.

It's bad anyway but we can't give exactly what game gonna play as you know most times it seems so hard to determine the games how it plays or how the results may come out. To me I prefer picking over 0.5 and 1.5 but since op already made it clear he isn't going for goals instead winning then fine.

Over 0.5 is not a good odd. It can be 1.01 to 1.05 odds which is very small. But I guess what you mean is over 0.5 in first half or over 0.5 in second half. Over 0.5 second half has almost the same odd as over 1.5 fulltime, but the odd for over 0.5 first half is slightly higher than both.

Although you always bet the favorite, but all of them aren't safe especially those three matches:

Real Madrid draw 2 from 3 match.
Napoli was lose against mediocre team.
Both Arsenal and Brighton are in shape.

Make sure you don't bet in Chelsea and Manchester United match or you will regret. ;D

But, let's see how it goes, maybe luck will be on your side in this week. :D

My suggestion for you is to close your eyes and ignore the odds. Believe me, many times odds mean nothing. You have to do research before each game, you have to check their past head-to-head matches, you have to consider where is the game going, in what shape is each team and their players, and how important is the win for each of them, who has to lose more by losing and who doesn't get heavily affected by it. Sports betting is a science for me, like math.

You can make an experiment but believe me, you won't be in profit with that approach. Forget odds, start watching sports actively and do deep research. I have bought many tickets with odds higher than 2.0

On which sports do you bet ? I mostly follow cricket and it is hard to get over 2.0 odds bets. There are many bets under 2 like 1.4, 1.7 etc and they are good to take them and win.
When you take the bet over two, don't you think that the chances of winning decreases considerably as the bookies will not give you the higher odds on the favourite teams ? And betting on weak teams may increase your odds but will decrease you chances of winning.

Over 0.5 is betting options and the odd is around 1.01 to 1.10 odds, while over 1.5 is about 1.20-1.30 odd. Most of the time over 0.5 HT is above 1.5 odds to 1.80 odds, while Over 1 is almost 2.5 odds where as over in FT the odds aren't the same. The FH usually have lot of higher odds this depends on the gambling site you are using as there odds aren't the same it differs from every casinos.

Hmm, this is really an interesting pick my friend and I think I like it a lot although am not sure for the Dortmund game but I think I see the reason why, their opponent is actually doing very well and they seem to play a very powerful football even with their game yesterday and for the Napoli game well I couldn't agree more just that I feel its likely going to be a draw atleast because I know Napoli are in very deep shit and their form is absolutely down and I really don't expect them to win but hey it's football who can be sure of anything?

A good betting odds experiment I would like to know the outcome of. ;)

Honestly, in parlay betting it is a bit more difficult even though we choose the favorite team especially more sometimes there is a surprise where the favorite team does not win, I am not brave enough for more than 5 matches to parlay.

Except for single bets, this is still possible for me to do actually every week, often choosing odds of 1.5 with a single bet of 5 different matches, the results are 3 wins 2 losses, not all of them will lose.

This is not an easy pick at all. I guess that Real Madrid could win this match. It is an home match for Real Madrid. Real Madrid has only played just one home match this season with Real Valladolid and it won the match with 3 goals. Real Bestie drew away match with Deportivo Alaves but this is not Real Madrid.

This makes true of the fact that no strategy is completely certain in gambling, some strategy works sometimes and the other time it doesn't hence it's not any certain at any point that a particular game turns out the way we have anticipated and expected of it because ordinarily gambling is mostly about predictions and probability.

Whenever a certain strategy is working well, it's usually best to make the best of it and whenever it's failing make sure to exit using such synergy quick enough so you don't get stucked already.

I have done using this method plenty and sometimes it works well but quite often too i lost my bets and what i am done is similar to you that make double bets with stick to the big teams and the odds probably will be increases because you were combine several matches into your bets but automatically the risk to lost your bets also increases because if there is one team who lost or draw then your bets will be failed and last time i did this method on Europa League few days ago but i was failed

Your pick seems quite safe but i am a bit worried about Napoli because their opponent is Parma and although Parma is promotion team but i highly doubt Parma will be easily to beat because this team is on fire and in the last 2 matches Parma have been met 2 strong opponents in Serie A Fiorentina and AC Milan but Parma can stole points from this teams even they can win from AC Milan

We can only think it’s safe based on our personal perception, but in general, there’s no such thing as safety in gambling. OP’s experiment is still unproven and needs more bets to determine if it’s a working method or not. However, I suspect this method might still lose in the long run, but let’s give it a try. Maybe I’m wrong, and if that turns out to be the case, I wouldn’t hesitate to follow what OP is doing.

Speaking from experience I have to say that when you make these betting slips your goal should never be to win every time. You are in it for the long game and for example of your target is a multiplier of 8x every time, then you must win more than 1/8th of your betting slips. So if you were to bet x amount per day, when in a day you make such bets you can divide your bets in multiple bet slips. You could even include one match on different combinations so long as you hit the desired multiplier.

Arsenal - Brighton 1-1 -1
Bayern - Freiburg - to be played
Napoli - Parma  2-1 +1.5
Barcelona - Valladolid  -7-0  :o +1.26
Real - Betis to be played

I will remove the Dortmund match from this week's play because d'oh I didn't realize I put the bet on the r3 match, I will add it to the next one!

So, the multiplier for week 1 is a loss so -1
Individual games are -0.24 with 3 out of 5

If the two games go well it will be 5% return if they go wrong, well, that's it!


I took this as an experiment, my take is actually to disprove of low odds being safe even on longer runs so I I'm not expecting to win a thing, more like I am trying to prove that so-called 'safe" bets are not safe at all.

Funny enough I've tried the same experiments during the weekend with horse racing:
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/09/01/9VTal.png
11/12 wins, exactly when I was trying to say that betting on the favorite is bad, but it was a festival day when horses you know almost all about them run! Anyhow, at under 6/4 odds even 11 wins seems like too much effort for to little, and I would never risk putting tens on such things.

So the first week is over:

Arsenal - Brighton 1-1 -1
Bayern - Freiburg 2-0  +1.21
Napoli - Parma  2-1 +1.5
Barcelona - Valladolid  -7-0  :o +1.26
Real - Betis 2-0  +1.30

Betting 5 units, return 5.27, profits 0.27
Multiplier is a loss, -1

Long way to go till next week but the next round in the premier league will be insane, close to 5 matches qualifying for this, Manchester, Liverpool, Brighton, Crystal and Aston Villa are close to 1.5

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/09/02/9c37a.png

Counting up to 11 possible matches under 1.5 for the leagues!

Interesting. Looking forward to the results, but it seems that most tell you to go into the long run and not push for victories each time ;D Either way, I hope for you to find your golden strat!

After a week's break due to UEFA nations, here is this round pick, with no less than 12 matches with a favorite under 1.50, and yes Bayer shows at 1.51 but it was 1.5 when I picked so it stays

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/09/11/BvcqC.png

As decided previously there will be two modes, on individual games, so 12 matches that will reward you 16 for 12 bet.
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/09/11/BvoGb.png

multiplier, a 39x if you get all of them right
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/09/11/Bv4yv.png

Curent balance is
single betting +0.27
multibet -1

A lot of us into the system have tried this system and failed but perhaps he has a way of making his selections. I remember when I was focused on playing 1.30 odds three times a week just for it to be accumulatively 2 odds a week but in as much as I was trying to reduce the risks by playing smaller odds it was still unsuccessful. I then adopted this method you mentioned which is aiming to get 100 percent of my stake but I prefer to play 2 odds of just a single game instead of multiple, I think it's better that way

adding events that have low odds does not make the finale multi bet easier (given the odds of the individual bets).

this is a well-known aspect to bookmakers ::) in fact they "randomly" give bonuses if you play a certain number of events in the same bet ... Meanwhile they do everything to encourage players to bet as many events as possible together.
have you ever noticed that it is not possible to play as a multiple results related to the same event? ::)

I actually never planned on experimenting with the multiplier, I would be surprised if it wins even once in all the rounds and that maybe with 4-5 picks, not 12 as this round.


I actually find that useful, too many times I have been overconfident on a thing and would have taken bets on multiple stuff for the same game, handicap, half-time winner, so on, this way I can focus on the value per bet.


A bit the point of the experiment, low odds sure look as safer but it takes one misstep out of four and you're back in red, the feeling of betting on a more probable event doesn't really reflect in the risks and the returns, a motive why I run this over multiple leagues and matches as I'm pretty sure at the end even if it turns out to be green the revenue compared to the amount bet and the time and effort would look like not worth it in my opinion.

It's just okay for the single bet instead of multiplier and this is a very hard type to bet on and there possibility to lose them is extremely high. But since it was for an experiment purpose I think each week or days you can for the league you choose and run your test to see how it goes but however, wouldn't you think of running a long term game with multiplier to have a higher pay out?

If there was a "strategy" here then the bookmakers would already have locked it down and made it unprofitable. If you imagine that 1.01 bets are what you might consider guaranteed and 2.0 bets are a coin flip with 50/50 on you winning, you might think that 1.5 is relatively safe but in my experience it is not. Keep in mind that bookmakers will have added a hidden buffer error margin into each bet, so you see 1.5 but the bookmaker really considers it a 1.4. If you do insist on trialing this strategy it would definitely be worth shopping around and seeing whether any sites offer different odds, because over time all those 0.05 differences can really add up and if variance is on your side, lead to bigger profits.

The thing there is that, any bet can lose or win regardless of the odds and which team is playing, and the higher the number of games selection the higher the risk of losing at that game, and that is why we should be ready for whatever outcome that Comes from our bets.

And if we win, the first thing to note is that, your winning is based on luck and there is no guarantee that you can repeat the same level of winning in your next bet, so don't get carried away to believe that you can have a pattern of betting or a safe betting zone that guarantees winnings.

I think there is, if you keep using the pattern which stompix is using then you will be on track for the long run because I have seen that using that method give less risk of losing bet. Yes we know that winning is based on chance and probability but there are some low odds game that gives quick winning.

It's not really a hidden strategy, for years most top teams have proven that are profitable on constant betting, it has worked for Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern, there are tons of people doing this for years, I just grabbed the first model from a forum as an example:

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/09/12/B1R4o.png

Bookies can't do much about this as the odds reflect the form, if they would lower too much then it would mean too big odds on handicaps for the other team so they just go along with it, it's not a very profitable scheme, it looks a lot of capital and there are just a few teams with which you can play, you're barely beating the stock market but yes, it's positive.

 :) ;D

I salute you for trying new strategies and also giving it a rough go posting all the results publicly. Keep it up m8 and I wish you the best of luck with your picks and hope that you win  ;D

Gambling always poses risk and those who win from their bets are those who dare to take the risk even though increased risk can occur with all betting methods like this, but remember that the best are those who can accept the risk and are able to learn from every failure.

Yes, there is no guarantee of victory or security and in betting even though we feel we are in comfort zone because choosing favorite team is not necessarily successful in the long term because in sports there are often surprises and this is what always makes gamblers fail.
In the same context, I quite curious because the discussion here previously was almost the same as the discussion in another thread as stated by OP about the betting thread with odds below 1.5 on the favorite team.
I tried it but not with the choice of victory for the favorite team but preferred the Asian Total option, choosing Over in the smallest number or Under with the largest number, this will give really small odds but the chances can be very good for increasing success.
It just that I think every gambler will have their own way and of course they won't necessarily be able to consider this the best.

I believe the same result will happen in every aspect of sports betting because the odds of each bet are carefully considered by the bookies before offering them, you need more than expertise or a high chance of winning for you to win the bets whose odds are close to 1, they are not just worth it.

You can only be successful in them if you are consistent with the winning but if you are not, a single loss will ruin the party. Imagine, if you bet three matches with 1.3 odds, it will take a single loss to clear all your 3 initial winnings, and it will take you 3 winnings to meet up with a single loss, so how convenient is that? The right risk management is not included in this kind of low-odd betting so I try as much as possible to avoid them.

However, I am referring to independent betting tickets, if it were to be a combined ticket like you showed in the OP, well, it's possible you win more through the odds accumulation, but you should also know that you've increased the risk of the bet automatically because it's a single ticket, all those games are dependent of each other.

This is the point of the experiment, can top team beat the odds or not!?
Bookies offer odds, but they don't offer really chances for it more like risks for gains percentages, if those were really chances you could go by all results and turn the whole thing into a predetermined outcome, bookies have no way of dealing with you a blow if Madrid for example goes on a rampage and beats every single team in the championship, and if they fail once in such a streak the odds for the next match after a failure would definitely pick up.
I posted earlier a graph on what would constant betting do for a team, this is about seeing what betting on odds would do for those, although I'm a pessimist I think it would be really close.

Back to the thing, only one match got solved Borussia to win at 1.38, and 3 matches are on Sunday evening, no point in doing any math till then.

innovative betting experiments can be used as a reference for me, because honestly I just found out about it, I just found your thread, hopefully I don't miss your betting results
your chances of winning will definitely be there but I don't know how big it will be successful

This is still the same thing but in a different format. The top team will beat the odds more times but luck is also needed here because no matter how better a team is against the other, there is always a time when the underdogs win which will ruin the party. A good example was yesterday when Nottm Forest beat Liverpool in their home, Nottm Forest of all teams? This rarely happens. However, some underdogs' wins are even more rampant than this, so it's not a matter of certainty win for the top team even if their chance of winning is high.

https://talkimg.com/images/2024/09/15/BKvJb.jpeg

Just like anyone who knows how to analyse matches and the possible outcome very well, they would have known the possible odds of bookies on matches depending on the distinction of strength/weakness of the meeting teams. For this, it is an automatic way of knowing the chance of winning or losing of either of the teams, so invariable, those with low odds have the higher chance of winning especially if your analysis agrees with the odds of bookies, so technically they (bookies) has already hinted the chance of winning with the odds.

Two matches still to go but I won't be able to watch them tonight so this is the stats right now, hope I got everything right

Liverpool -1
Manchester City  +1.19
Brighton -1
Aston Villa +1.50
Atletico  TBD
Borussia +1.38
Leipzig -1
Bayern +1.26
Bayer +1.51
Ac Milan +1.31
Inter TBD
PSG +1.30

Total gambled 12 Current Returs 9.45 Loss 2.55
Even if both teams tonight win the return would be 0.10

If anything it looks like a way to increase your roll!


Again it's a matter of how many times at what odds!
If a team scores 5 times in a row the odds for it will be low, if it gets destroyed after that series by the one last placed its odds would instantly go up, this is less about an event and more about a series of events, you can't argue that the bookie make the odds and at the same time they are better yet losing on them, we could change this and bet against the favorite then each time, it would be inevitable that at one point a team would bring the gains and another the losses.

Liverpool losing to Nottingham Forrest  was really  odd, considering their current form and unbeaten or conceiving record for a while now. No one actually expected that. Odds which can sometimes  help in determining the form or the outcome of the match failed in their game with Nottingham forest, analysis also failed.  These days I've been making small odds selection and I sum it up to 4 or 2 odds, yet there is still a single loss all the time. And that is another reason to prove that both small and huge odds can still change your bet status to loss. The best way to gamble is reducing your stake so you don't get affected  if anything other than  your predictions happens.

Sincerely a vst majority didn't see that coming and even the bookies had taught they would be able to win as it reflected in their odds, if it were to be like a few knew Liverpool was going to loose this game,then most casinos should be paying through their nose now but the odds for Liverpool was small. Now it's important to understand the concept behind odds that they are only assigned according to the expectations and projections of the bookies to fair degree to attract gamblers there by making us understand that there's no degree to accuracy or assurance arising from this odds allocated as theya re only the reflection of the bookies taughts so anything can still happen, you can follow your guys at some point, who knows they may be wright.

There is no perfect strategy in gambling, especially in sports betting; it all depends on what you want. If you're trying to build a balance, picking bookies' favorites with a good stake amount is the right strategy; no risk is taken. However, if you already have a good balance, you can always try a more risky odds parlay with a minimum stake once in a while; it doesn't always come, but when it does, it covers all initial losses.

I enjoy betting on bookies' favorites, but anything less than 1.40 odd is a waste of time for me. Football has changed, bookies' favorites struggle, and there are always upsets, but it is still a better strategy to accumulate profits..

This experiment will most likely end in red. Can't call this a betting strategy, of course, but, yeah, it is flawed. For one, profitable betting on sports requires that you are aware of what you're betting on. Meaning, it's based on a certain amount of analysis or familiarity.

Also, betting on odds like 1.30 or 1.40 is actually risky since their opponents still hold relatively high chances of winning. And you will get a low return if you win. You have to win more or less 3 times to recover your starting bet, but what is the chance that out of three games, one will end in an upset? Again, not really a huge upset since 1.30 or 1.40 aren't like sure wins. Every loss means you need to add another 3 wins. If in 3 games, you will lose twice, you need to win 6 times to recover. That's not easy.

I have experience in losing a bet under 1.1 odds because soccer is a minute game. A single minute can change the game. Imagine I bet for a team already in the lead, and it's last minute. I will lose my bet if the opponent scores at the last minute. You will probably win most of the matches if you bet on 1.5 odds. But that is not enough to cover your loss.

If you win ten bets with 1mBTC each on 1.4 average odds, that is 4mBTC. But if you lose five bets, you are 1mBTC down. A better idea will be to research the team before you bet. You should not blindly bet on a team just because of the odds.

I share your view about the series of events but I don't seem to 100% understand you and you are mixing some points up. You need to know that bookies consider lots of factors before resulting in certain odds for teams and not only about the goals scored though it's one of the factors, unless you are referring to that as one of the factors in an example way.

The feats of the teams are collectively weighted having considered their past and present statuses and this automatically assigns a low odd to the stronger team and a high odd for the lower ones, scoring alone can't do that but overall considerations of qualities and past results. This naturally gives clues to the chances of the team winning as said in the last post and has been so useful for me to personally know the weak and the strong teams because my analysis often agrees with the odds of bookies, except in some situations where the strength/chance of the teams are close. However, I will never consider betting against the favourite, it's all about the analysis and what it eventually guides me to do. I then manage my portfolio rightly in case the unforeseen happens.

It is interesting, though, many point out that the returns would be small, and the risks - too high.
Nevertheless, it's still interesting to watch the results for yourself, indefinitely.
There is no perfect strat in gambling or in sports betting, as Josefjix said.

So update on round 2

Round 2 results
- Individual bets balance -1.2
- Multiplier balance -1

Total results
- Individual bets balance -0.93
- Multiplier balance -2
- Amount wagered on single bets 17
- Pecentage loss -5.4%
- Amount wagered on multi -2
- Percentage loss 100%


It's exactly my point, if the bookie considers these factors before publishing the bets it means that they are also off by a factor, right, since the low odds they publish are also wrong, basically what this experiment will also prove on top of that is that despite their reputation they also gamble a lot when doing those, a ton of shots in the dark just like the rest of us!


Tree of Liberty went to post at 1/25, this is 1.04 odds, with an official rating of 144, and lost to the single other horse running with a rating of 98.
So, top this  ;D

I have come to realize that even low odds are not really safe because it's all risky. If you allow small odds to entice you it would make you lose as an active gambler. There are people that have staked millions on low odds and lost the bet. To me odds are just ideas on which team has the highest potential of winning which is sometimes misleading, instead of just playing by the odds do a deep dive and play according to analysis, this way you can at least try to give yourself a little leverage over the bookmakers

Can you explain what strategy is "hidden" in this table? And by the way, from what I see - 10 teams are profitable, 10 are unprofitable. It seems that there are more profitable teams in the top, but not so much to make a profit from this or to be sure that this will be the case every year.
In certain years, such declines as those recently seen by Napoli, Bayern, Liverpool would ruin a player using such a strategy, wouldn't they?

Just as you've said, odds are basically set by the bookies based on the possibility of winning or losing the game which is determined by the current form of both team. In other word odds are as a result of bookies prediction. Football is a game were result can change within the wrinkle of an eye, and the least thought for consideration  could become the reality of the day. Selection small odds has no guarantee that you'll  be wining the game, but it keeps you in a less risky position for your bets to be won. However  i prefer going for small odds than betting on bigs odds because majority of my wins are from small odd selected games out together.

It's quite simple. The games or rather game outcomes that have a higher likelihood of happening usually comes with smaller odds since based on team and statistics the risk on betting on that particular possibility is low relative to an opposite possibility or other possibilities like a draw game. If a very good team plays against a team with very low stats, the betting odds for the good team will be very small when compared to the team that's of a lower winning stats.

Similarly you will notice that if both teams are good the odds of getting a draw in that game will be smaller and the difference between a draw and that of any the two teams winning won't be large. As a gambler you have to understand these simple logics because if you bet based on the size of the odds you will likely lose majority of the games you place.

I am curious if you are continuing to place bets in low-odds matches, given that you may have started to realize what will happen at the end. Some other members and I think it might end up negative. But if you want to continue experimenting, it's up to you. But I would say that the final result is pretty much obvious.

I want to mention another thing: I have seen a scam accusation thread where the victim said that the casino refused to pay him because he was placing bets on low odds. I don't think Stake is going to do that. If I am not wrong, that platform was rollbit. I didn't follow up on that thread, so I am not sure if that guy was able to withdraw his funds or not. The bottom line is, even if you get success in the experiment, probably it won't work on every sportsbook.

In which ever way you try to predict it, gambling is by luck. Your own prediction may be riskier than his own strategy. Because if he plays under 1.5odd, the risk may be lesser to your own. while in other words your over 1.8 or 2.5 like 4 or 5 selection may likely be riskier than his own lesser odd because the higher the accumulation with high odd the more chances of losing over win. But that doesn't mean that small odd doesn't burst ticket. You may just play a single stake of 2.5 odd with a reasonable amount instead of multiplying risk.

And again if luck will not be on your side, whatever kind of research and assessment that you it will still burned your selections, though I also take this kind of parlay, trying to look for teams that have history of not making points and try to see the opponents defense, if things works on my analysis then I'll take 3-4 games and hope that luck will permits that selection to win, no guarantee but giving the possibilities that risk still involve then it will easy to move forward whatever the outcome might be.

Gambling success was never really dependent on the gambler’s expertise, experience or skill. Although have those expertise could give you an added advantage even though it doesn’t really guarantee your success, it’s still very important to have the experience under your sleeves, because luck won’t do all the work for you, do the best you can, keep your fingers crossed and hope luck is in your side and things work according to your predictions. Because skill and luck works together, and without both, failure is sure.

I agree with you, but what I have learned from my experience in betting over the years is that we must adhere to all these rules by approaching bets responsibly, observing many of the rules that are often mentioned, such as money management, stopping bets if we feel tilted after several losses. As for the technical part, I recommend doing a thorough analysis of each match, and also thinking about the odds, whether they give us an advantage in this game and how big. Because sometimes you can still find games when the odds are good and you need to bet on them.

All those factors are important as you can control your emotions once you established your strategy, those kinds of picks most of the time are based with detail information about those teams or squad that will be competing, knowing their capabilities gives you hints that you might use to select which games to bet and what are those parlay that will give you decent opportunity to win, though small odds when putting together and if luck permits then it's  a decent benefits.

Yes, but this requires long experience and a good understanding of the game in which we are going to do this. I still prefer high odds for one match in football or hockey, in which the odds are about 3 or higher, and I start thinking whether the underdog team will win 1 of 3 matches so that my bet will be in the black. If the answer is yes, then I place my bet. Of course, all this is very imaginary, but everyone chooses what to start from, I like these bets. And I don’t really like bets like OP’s and I don’t place them, in the end, everyone chooses their own strategy.

And I have a rather skeptical view, because I think that professionals in the bookmaker's office calculate the odds better than ordinary bettors, and it is difficult to beat them. And if someone manages to do this constantly, then the bookmaker will begin to behave dishonestly, constantly walking to the successful betting fan.
I have heard many stories about account blocking, as well as about the fact that the withdrawal of funds was very difficult.
Therefore, you should play only on large, proven bookmakers.

I think the most important rule in gambling is risk and emotion management, when a gambler learns to manage risks and most importantly their emotions while gambling, they’ll be able to avoid a lot of problems gamblers encounter. Problems like over gambling and knowing exactly when to call it a quit. When a gambler masters the act of self control and risk management, he greatly limits his chances of getting addicted to gambling as he’ll be able to make more responsible gambling decisions.

The strategy is going with your team no matter the odds, of course with the weaker team you will fail and with the middle ones you might have a nasty surprise, but top teams have been on the edge of being profitable for years. The biggest factor thing is that this constant betting works in your favor if the teams constantly win the bets go slightly down but if they start losing your bets suddenly have higher value, you still lose -1 but you gain more, Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Bayern are two teams that have been constantly in the green for the last two seasons, of course, the results from this start being biased once you use multiple teams in a league because, well obviously!

There are even variations of those one pound bet
- playing the martingale on teams, again taking advantage of the odds increasing in case you lose (wouldn't recommend)
- in horse racing going for a jockey trainer's age of the horse for example betting on Haggas and his horses on all weather is right now at -113 but still positive for turf.
- I don't watch NBA so I didn't understand but something about handicaps over +2, again backed by some 3 years of logs

The best way to make money from gambling is when we take less risk to win bigger amount of money staking small funds.
I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.

If you ask me, I’ll say the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own, since we already know that the odds are always in favor of the house, so the way to stay in profit via gambling is to be the house, this way you don’t get to risk anything at all, you’re always sure of making profits. I know the expenses involved in managing a casino is pretty much, as well as taxation and other levies, but nonetheless you don’t have to worry about risking your money or fear of losses or getting addicted, since gamblers lose more often that they win, that’s an advantage for you because the more people lose, the more you gain, so rather than being at the giving end, it’s more profitable to be at the receiving end, cos that way, you’re sure of everyday profits.

The trouble is you're only making small amounts, say 10% of the total you are risking, each time you bet. However you stand to lose 100% of your bet if you lose. Unless you think you can beat the analytics of the bookmaker, those companies that make hundreds of millions a year profit from accurately predicting outcomes over the long term, then there it sounds appealing but it really is not. Even if you were to win 10 attempts in a row to double up your money, you only need a chain link of two mistakes or cases where the odds go against you, to lose the initial 100% of your capital that is being risked. These freak odds happen more often than not, but can also stack against all your profits accumulated so far.

Well everyone can go for their preference, going for 2.5 odds and lesson the game selection can also be a good idea especially when these selections are made on teams that often scores  more goal. A team like Manchester City could be trusted to score more goal and they have been making a over 2.5 goals in most of their games. But I prefer the ones proposal to make a series of small odds  selection like 0.5 or 1.5and sum it up to a reasonable  odd. Though the more selection the more chances of losing the ticket  but since the odds are low and the predictions is a bit easy to be played by the both teams, we'll hope they keep to their form and make the predictions come true.

Sometimes even the surest odds could just disappoint you, doesn’t matter how many games you’ve got in your selection, it’s doesn’t increase of reduce your chances cos at the end what you need is luck. I’ve tried several strategies in games and odds selections, just like you said, I tried picking games with 2.5 odds, I actually picked just two games with both 2.5 odds, the first option was for both teams to conceal at 1 goal each, and the other to score 2.5 goals in the whole 90 minutes of the match. Th funniest aspect of this was that, these both teams were the the highest goals scorers in their various leagues, and i staked high on the game with a much assurance that the game would play in my favour but the second game ended in 1:0, this was totally unbelievable but what could I do, I already lost. The experience taught me that regardless of whatever strategy you use, your success still depends on luck.

Influence of luck indeed as even how good you assess and analyze the potential outcome if luck is not in your side it will ruined your combination, though it's still good to have that kind of startegy as you have basis to whatever bets you take, from that point of view, you can simply quit and accept your defeats and not to become aggressive and add more deposit to re-try your entry and lose more money.

More on how you do your analysis and how you manage both your time and finances while executing your plan strategy.

Time for round 3
Really bad picks today in my opinion

8 matches, very low odds, possible returns for a single bet of just 10.76
Multiplier is also disappointing, for 8 matches just x10.50.
Really low odds in some of those might want you to throw them from the section, especially with Liverpool being there again.
Anyhow, here they are:

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I know that don't think that this is an experiment to prove the tactic would succeed, I've said it from the start it's more like a warning against things you take for granted to happen just because of those abysmal odds so I'm fully aware of it.

But, there is fun also in doing it!

This is what I do almost at every New beginning of the season i try to select matches with relatively low odd expecially when the team is at home playing an average team with a big odd sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't but as time processed I discovered that odd is just a number any team can win a game irrespective of the odd given to them for I have seen severally where team with bigger odd number still come to win the team with a lower odd so it this case I don't think there is any need trying to do some experiment is better to go ahead a play which ever team you are move to play if you win you win if you loss you loss that's how bet works for there is no way you can be winning all the time at same time losing all the time.

Ok, i got it. But I don't believe that it works, maybe there are some verified statistics on this matter? This is hard to believe, as it would mean that bookmakers systematically make mistakes when choosing odds (while I have seen studies showing that they guess outcomes with an accuracy of 1%), and when evaluating the favorite. Usually, the majority of the margin is taken from the favorite's odds, but if this strategy works, it turns out that this is exactly where (where the largest cash flow flows) they are wrong.

In any case, I am following this topic with interest.

There is only one problem when choosing well known teams and that is rarely so many teams win in a single parlay, these games can hit you really hard if you happen to put a good stake to the parlay and the parlay to lose. I know for fun it can be a nice experiment as I can follow these games or some of them for this upcoming weekend and try a good 1 dollar stake in IDR which is near 16.000 IDR and can give you good money to enjoy yourself and keep your self entertaining in betting other parlays with the money you can win.

A well done to you in searching the games with low odds and parlaying them together as most time personally I keep losing because I am not patient enough to wait and do research so I just go with whatever live and upcoming event is thrown at me by the casinos where I play.

A person who gambles with a proper plan for managing the risks that is involved in gambling will inadvertently have a messed emotion. If you as a gambler can set realistic expectations in the amount of risk that you know you can handle then you are more than half way through with handling your emotions.

There is hardly anyone that can get rich quick through gambling. There is hardly anyone that can hit the jackpot on their first game. There is also hardly anyone who can double their money in order to meet a financial or personal need through gambling. Anyone who thinks otherwise is setting themselves up for an emotional rollercoaster.

 

You are absolutely correct, wining in gambling depends on luck and nothing  more, but sometimes due to the fact that we make analysis by spectating the previous performance  of the club and making predictions, we set our minds in thinking we are also factors in making it possible  for our predictions to result to win or sometimes we take the credit  of making the right selection. Well ots all luck and we know that, but for fun sake, we might want to believe  its in our making. Today I made a game selection  of which individual  odds are below 1.6 odds yet the outcome was loss due to Manchester City draw with inter i predicted city  to win the game but it ended up nill goals. However that was the only odd selection whereas others did go the towards my prediction. And that explains that luck is still the major determinant of one's success in gambling.




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I would not advise betting on a small coefficient, because sooner or later the team with a large coefficient will win it, it just takes time. I try to focus on other things, for example, I would rather make fewer bets, but they will be with a thorough analysis. Or, for example, it is better to bet only a few times a year, but to be in the win, because in these matches we were confident. And of course it is better to avoid matches in which we doubt or have a borderline decision. In any case, in order to understand whether we are a winning gyroc or not, many years must pass and a huge number of bets must be made.

It's funny, right now I'm conducting the same experiment as TS, but with fewer bets, for only three matches. Before, I used the reverse strategy: a lot of small bets on weak teams or a draw. So, the previous strategy allows you to at least stay with your own, despite the fact that most bets are unsuccessful, there are very large winnings, which actually help out. It's kind of weird, though. There are always, or almost always, such unexpected results. Could this be a consequence of match-fixing? It is hardly possible to find out...

Odds really mean nothing, people think that small odds are always going to go according their prediction but gambling isn't really like that, those odds are deceiving, a team with 10 odds can beat a team having 1.2 odds or even less, sometimes the bookmakers use this as a trap to entice you as the gambler. Small odds has a high chance of winning but it's not hundred percent sure, thats why it's advisable to always stake what you can afford to lose

Bookies are still humans, they don't pose a magic wand that would enable them to make all the odds in their favor, plus no matter what the bookies want if bets come flowing against their predictions they have nothing to do but change them or risk losing a ton, and they don't take gambles, they are doing risk hedging with those.
It's nearly impossible mathematically for all teams to lose on a single $1 on them, this will take more luck than getting all matches' exact score, at one point one team will do better than the odds,and gain, bookie shave no answer if teams like Madrid or Bayer keep winning.

Madrid won 29 games, lost 1 draw 8, they had an average 1.40 on betting, enough to make them profitable, 1:28 would have been enough.
Same for Bayer, they didn't lose a single match won 28 draw 6, a at 1.20 odds it would have been a gain.
All the data is on oddsportal, you can check all the odds they had prior to games there.


Well it is different since I'm following odds, not teams so I doubt it will be positive, it's also bit late but I will think of tracking top teams in another topic also I have all the data from oddsportal anyhow.

That aside, Bayern and Liverpool are demolishing their adversary right now so at least two matches out of 8 to date.

You are right, most of the time it's a trap though there are gamblers who understand the risk and willing to take it as they trust there guts in finding those value bets and bet on it as parlay, one mistake from your selections then everything will be messed up, and it's just seems so easy to pick low odds selections but once upset take place surely your bet will lose.

Sometimes low odds matches can not save of from winning big in gambling. I have tried it many times and I was disappointed to know that many of the matches ended in big regrets. We need to choose matches based on our findings and what we think about the match. Other people's opinion can really help us a lot but not everytime. One just have to forecast games and make the bets waiting for the outcome to click if we are that fortunate. Sometimes cashing out before the game ends whether in winning or loses can also help sometime when we are not that certain about the outcome of the match especially when it's the last match of the game. This can be a tough decision but I have benefited many times from this.

Betting on low odds are the worst and I hate them because they are the ones that have caused more damage in the past, people think if they accumulate games with odds less than 1.20 it gives them a hundred percent chance of winning, I don't bet below 3 odds, I'm not saying it's a wrong idea if you do it's just my preference and experience with the system. Understanding that playing single games of 2 to 3 odds has a higher chance of winning would make you have a different approach with this, a lot of gamblers might not agree with this system

Well, the experiment with the "reliable bets" strategy gave the expected result - all three bets won. Specifically, these were betting on the matches: Real Madrid vs. Espanyol, Liverpool vs. Bournemouth, Werder Bremen vs. Bayern Munich. So the strategy of "reliable bets" makes sense, provided at least a superficial analysis of the teams, of course.

I have noticed and observed on this common act from some gamblers, if they are playing a bet with small ods, they are going to make numerous games selections because they know that they are nearly close to the accuracy of those games selections with smaller ods, while those that do go for big ods will only make a fewer selection because they know the chances of wining the bet in smaller and couldn't afford increasing on the numbers of games, because the more they do do, the lesser their winning chances as well, so most of them will prefer between a one to four games selections because of the ods.

Are you referring to casino games when you mentioned that you can not bet on less than 3 odds? I have gone for 3 odds always on casinos but that is different on sport betting sites. I also think you are not referring to parley. I prefer to go for 1.25 odds to 2 odds if it is football betting. I have found go 3 odds to be very risky and the chance to win such bet is very low.

I agree with your opinion that the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own. But have you considered the amount to start up a casino of your own? It is always easy to think of such an idea but the finance to Carry on such operation is the problem. If owning of casino is easy almost everyone or %20-50 of the word will have own a Casino. Another thing is having the zeal to continue for a longer time horizon and this can only be possible if such person has a good managerial skill. If not it will just be a thing of hurriedly in and hurriedly out.

I knew it, and yes again I picked an extra game from the next round which will be discarded


PSG and Bayer shame on you!
Atalanta will play late at night, no way I'm seeing that game, and will probably update the final standings with next week's picks as well, so temporarily before that
Total bets 7, Wins 5.22, Total loss 1.78 before one match at 1.46 so no matter what it's a losing round again!

I just took a glimpse to next round and it's again nightmare fuel, Leipzig and Arsenal...god no!
I'm starting to see a pattern here and my take is on a 5-10% loss for this experiment, close to slot crappy RTP!


No, it works simply because you had luck in choosing those 3 out of x.
As some sort of Trivia, whoever bet on just draws on Ligue1 yesterday would have ended with an 80 Multiplier, so by this assumption betting on just draws is a win..., nope!

I totally agree there.
If it were that easy, everybody would try to do it, but you need lots, and I mean lots of connections, experts, knowledge, expertise yourself, and much, much more.
Though, it would be a good goal to achieve some day ;D

Yup, not just you but for sure most of gamblers experienced the same, thinking that betting with low odd either parlay or single will give them decent chance of winning, but upset always present when you are in gambling right?


It helps but not an assurance for sure, using it as basis to anaylze the game and see if you've got the same findings but betting blindly and follow them directly that's something that really tough if you loseyour parlay.


If you got that chance and you manage to cashout, that's a sure thing that you've got something after your bet.

You can look at it from your point of view. And you're right. One may wonder why I placed bets on these three matches? The risks were practically minimal. Well, I won't deny that if I place bets on, say, 7 matches, then maybe one or even two bets can lose. The more bets there are, the greater the chance of surprises, even if the odds correspond to an almost risk-free bet.
Why can't a bet on a draw be a win? I sometimes placed a lot of bets only on draws. I lost most of the bets. But in the end, I still found myself in profit. I admit that it could just be luck.

Yes, that is the best way or a more reasonable way to be able to make real profits in the gambling industry, namely by building your own casino and you become the dealer who manages all the systems in the games provided. But yes, I also understand what you mean by saying is always much easier than doing, but it is still possible for rich people who have a lot of money. Another thing is if you really want to continue to advance as a gambler and not become a dealer for some reason, then make sure that you have good skills in taking care of yourself and your finances, and also make sure that your expectations always look realistic in any type of game.

So, a much needed update.
Atalanta lost but at the same time, Bayer scored in the 94th minute, I had them as a loss to suddenly turn green.
Due to a packed schedule, I missed two wins on this round in La Liga, they will be counted separately.

After this the round ended with:
Total bets 7, Wins 6.64, Loss 0.34

So next 9 matches till the end of the week excluding Real and Barcelona who have already won at lower odds.

Had to split the screenshot too long to zoom out:
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9 bets, singlematches possible win is 12.24/ multi is 15.59.
The two previous results will be added to the total cause it was my fault for not adding them not the fault of the "strategy".

Indeed you are lucky because to me when I placed bet on draws it surely ends up the other way round were it would be 1:0 or 2:1 or 3:1 and 3-2. So instead I mostly choose either Over or Under, Home or Away sometimes first half under to win or over. I mostly ends up with it, so picking draws is likewise risky to bet on.

Yeah but why choose those 3 and not the other 3, you went for Liverpool vs. Bournemouth at 1.30, and quoted it as a sure win but Liverpool lost a 1.34 sure bet home while hosting Nottingham at 1.22. I'm quite interested in this, what would make the second one far less riskier than the first bet?
I see this constantly in this experiment matches go wrong at the lowest odds, and to be hoenst I would have placed bets far easier on greater odds, For example on Bayern and Barcelona despite being 1.8, no way I would have actually taken a gamble on Atalanta at 1.4 or bet on Arsenal, no, not even thinking of!

Being rich doesn't even guarantee owning a casino, atleast you must be well knowledgeable and have Passion about the kind of business you are about to embark on Before you can succeed, otherwise you might Start up so easily and end up suddenly. This has been the problem of most people who started but couldn't profit from it. For me I think no matter how profitable casino business is, not everyone can do it despite how rich some people can be.

 

Yes, at football that always has surprises, especially for the English League where often the lower teams can beat the top team but all this can't always happen because surprises can't be found every week and we are just someone who takes the risk to bet so when the favorite team loses then we have to accept it.
All opportunities are always good in the favorite team but it would be much riskier to take all the top teams from each league and make it multi bet, it would be better to take it in one particular League and all slip are taken from several team in one League which is clear never exceed the limit like betting with 5 to 10 team at once.
Every gambler must have experienced condition like that where taking favorite team that has an advantage on paper but at one time the team experienced failure and embarrassing defeat, that why I always say about not focusing too much on the superior team because in football anything can happen even though it is an unreasonable result.

Surely at most times it can seem very hard to determine a winning team between that of the favorite and the opponent, sometimes most of the players in our most preferred team may not be physically fit enough to bring out their best performance which can be unknowingly to us the gambler, those players are humans like us such their body might to have enough rest but due to duty calls, they will be out and might not be on their best performance that is fatigue hence, that is one among the reasons why sometimes a team you consider to be weaker team wins the the favorite team.

So one match to go and this is going to be funny if Napoli wins with Monza!

Previous results after round 3:

Total results:
- Individual bets balance -1.27
- Multiplier balance -3

We have to add to this 0.4 as Barcelona and Madrid won on Wednesday and Thursday but I wasn't online to add them!

Results for the current round:

As Roma 1.42
Napoli - TBD
PSG 1.41
Monaco 1.37
Arsenal 1.19
Liverpool 1.37
Dortmund 1.27
Leipzig 1.43
Milan 1.39

One match to go but it still changes everything
9 bets, returns 10.85   +1.85.

After 4 rounds
- Individual bets balance 0.98
- Multiplier balance TBD

- Amount wagered on single bets 36
- Percentage win 2.72%

Now in Napoli wins the multi turns profitable which is going to be a surpise