Bitcoin Forum

I know that it's an old claim that XRP was going to replace SWIFT.
However I think that it's a false assumption to say that because it didn't happen in the last 5 years, it is bound to never happen.

Ripple has survived all court cases and is the only altcoin with regulatory clarity. Correct me if anything I am writing is wrong.
To me it makes sense that all these regulatory issues delayed the growth of XRP. But it seems evident to me that SWIFT is outdated, and eventually will have to be replaced by a crypto currency. SWIFT is slow and expensive. XRP seems to resolve a lot of these issues, but I think it is not the only competitor to replace SWIFT.
However, I don't think those competitors have regulatory clarity. The CEO of Ripple stated to have many non disclosure agreements with banks all over the world. I don't know why so many people ignore this, and label XRP a dying altcoin. If XRP gets to replace SWIFT, I think it will happen overnight with the banks buying up all tokens before any of this information gets out.

I read this post in a YouTube comment. Can anyone tell me what is false about these logics?
The price prediction seems outrageous but I'm already happy with a 10x on my investment in the long run.


Some say that XRP lost its use case when stablecoins came into existence. I don't know if that is true

Has been hearing the same question for 10 years now and in this period, Ripple has just moved downwards. I don't know what legal and technical approach Ripple might have made but we don't seem to be having it as an alternative for swift and crypto mostly has been used as an alternative to banking system let alone the swift system. There are works of global acceptance of crypto as it is or converting it into fiat value. Stablecoins like USDT and USDC has made it easier for people to transfer the value without using the banking system.

I think its more an inner banking circle coin.
The bank won't give users a benefit.

I have read XRP was massively premined, majority-owned by the core team and founders, and many people do not consider it to be a legit crypto. Since there is nothing there to scare away central bankers, Yes it could still happen.

In terms of infrastructure, Ripple should be able to replace SWIFT, because as far as I know, SWIFT only has 523 TPS while Ripple is able to do even 3 times what SWIFT does. Then SWIFT is a centralized system, which is weaker than decentralized Ripple. But the reality is not like that, we know that Ripple has many problems, starting from cases with the SEC, developers who pre-mined excessively and others.

The price has been moving downwards, but the infrastructure and legal proceedings have not. The fact that token price has been disappointing for so long, seems to be the main argument of 95% of investors not to buy it. But the price depreciation in my opinion says nothing about the long term potential. It's like investing in land in one of the BRICS nations. There is no prosperity yet, but I believe you can reap the benefits a decade later.

Bitcoin has no CEO to sue, which is why it has grown without limits. Every altcoin that intends to threaten the powerstructure of the ruling monetary system, is bound to face judicial pressure. I think that the SEC delayed this whole process because the big banks want to prepare themselves for XRP takeover. There also needs to be cooperation on a international scale. It does not surprise me that the integration of such a system takes more than 5 years of legal battles to be completed.

The big banks want to implement their CBDC's now that the current monetary system has reached its end. I keep reading that they can build it on XRP and they now have regulatory clarity to do it.

To me it is a certainty that SWIFT will be replaced. The question is just with what, and when. But I still think of XRP as the top contender, because of regulatory clarity.

I don't know why the pre mining is such a problem, as long as the amount of available tokens is limited. Which guarantees scarcity.
Also tokens have to be burned to be able to complete transactions, which pushes the price up.

I don't know why major ownership by a core team is a problem either. You could say the same about Michael Saylor's bitcoin holdings.
The entire bitcoin supply of this moment (let's say 95% of the entire supply) is owned by less than 1% of the global population. I'd say that is more concentration of wealth than the XRP situation.

The view that XRP lost its usefulness with the rise of stablecoins does exist, but this is a debatable interpretation. Stablecoins were created to overcome crypto price volatility by being backed by assets such as fiat (for example USD), so they are more stable and often used for daily transactions or storing value. However, stablecoins and XRP have different goals. while stablecoins do provide a stable alternative for the storage and transfer of value, XRP retains advantages in the areas of high-speed, low-cost cross-border transfers that have not been completely replaced by stablecoins.

No, I don’t think it will ever be replaced, and it's all just a fluke. It wouldn’t be enough to replace all. Additionally, with the surrounding Issues with XRP, it’s not a surprise that it hasn’t been used. I imagine if it had come to this, there would be a lot of news about it, but I don’t think there is for now.

Are there a lot of people expecting this?

Try sending 5000 euros from Europe to Brazil.
High costs, and it takes about a week to get there. Multiple banks involved, multiple staff members. You get questioned about the purpose of the transfer as if the money is not really yours.

This innovation has to happen but it takes a very long time to get deployed.

I'm pretty sure that innovation is inevitable, but I am not sure if XRP will be the chosen token.
There are competitors, and I keep hearing that banks are developing their own blockchains behind the scene.

I'd use Litecoin, takes 3 minutes and cost about 0.01 Cent.
It takes more time if you need to buy the coins 1st, a wire transfer to moonpay takes 2 days.

I would cross this one out because it has been resolved already or at least partially. They just need to pay a fine, not by a small amount, but still it is better than what SEC was asking of them initially. From $2 billion to just $125 million. Not that bad, at all I would say.

SEC might try and appeal once more but the fact that this long lawsuit has come to an end gives investors a sigh of relief. I think from now on they can focus more on solving the problems the system has.

You're right, but can reputation be bought? Since the cases that happened to Ripple, the community is no longer very confident in Ripple, even though they're still continuing to develop their network, but people already have distrust, it could be that one day in the future Ripple will be hit by the same case. I ask you, even if for example the Terra case is over and they restore their good name, will you invest your money there? I doubt you will.

I don't think even 10 years into the future that XRP will eventually replace SWIFT though, the main reason why SWIFT despite already said to be outdated by you still thrive because it just works moreover it's robust and already tested in regard of its reliability.

when we talk about banking system like SWIFT, we also talk about adoption and most of the banks and financial institutions aren't gonna migrate to other system just because it's old. so it's not just matter of creating "better" technology and somehow all banks and financial institutions suddenly migrate their things over to the newer system. migration is expensive and most bank just back out from doing so.

despite XRP has been winning on their court case I just can't really see them replacing SWIFT after all, bank keep fragmented and legacy backend and they will do the same this time around. therefore I don't expect XRP to grow in term of price that much unless it can do what it's really promised to do which is adopted by the banks.

Credibility goes a long way, you are right, and it's much harder to get it back from the cases that XRP witnessed and experienced.
And as TastyChillySauce said, it's expensive to go around legacy code, thus, why even bother to use something new when there is a reliable alternative? The pros should be bigger than the cons of such act, if it ever happens.

Most people don't believe it, but we will reach the end of the current monetary system before 2030. Probably under the next presidency.
It is a mathematical inevitability. Economists have calculated a decade ago that when the USA reaches 33 trillion USD of national debt, the system becomes highly unstable. We are beyond that point now. The debt is 35 trillion USD and one trillion is added every hundred days.

Why is that a problem? Because society has to pay intrest on the debt. The amount of intrest paid on the 35 trillion debt burden, has now surpassed the annual budget for the entire military. And this will get worse in years to come, because the debt grows rapidly. Within 5 years, RFK and his administration have calculated that 50% of all American tax revenue will vanish as intrest payment on the national debt.

This means that there will be no money at all for public services. Long story short, society will collapse and it will take SWIFT down with it.
Banks will start failing through mortgage defaults.
The current monetary system is a legalized Ponzi scheme based on ever escalating debt, until intrest can not be paid anymore and the Ponzi scheme collapses.
It is inevitable, and it will be replaced. The question is with what.

Ripple is surely not the only candidate but it is one of the horses I am betting on.
I also bet on bitcoin because it seems evident to me that governments will hold it as a reserve asset, aside from gold.
There will have to be new currency and I believe it will be blockchain based. Possibly backed by bitcoin.

There was no need for 5 years to pass for people to realize how silly such a claim is.
Besides, the shitcoin pumpers always make such claims to attract attention of "gamblers" aka day traders to the shitcoin they want pumped. There has been lots of silly claims about a lot of shitcoins and shittokens from solving the energy problem all the way to revolutionizing gaming industry :D

SWIFT is a centralized system that is in control of the government and is used as a weapon by the United States. They can never do that using XRP, a centralized shitcoin in control of a company.

They may improve it some day, specially when actual competition surfaces (like BRICS). But it still won't be replaced by XRP ever.

This is another very old technique used by pumpers. They make outrageous claims about the shitcoin they want pumped to attract people by playing with their greedy nature.

Just think about those numbers.
If "real value" of a centralized shitcoin without any utility that has a 56 billion circulating supply is $1 million then what do you think the "real value" of bitcoin with actual utility and only 19 million circulating supply is?

I'd say when bitcoin is only $60k with that supply, the $0.5 price for XRP is way above its real value and it has to dump down at least to $0.0001 to be closer to its real intrinsic value.

The problem is that despite the many years in which these claims have been made, XRP is very far from competing with the SWIFT system. On the contrary, these systems are controlled by countries and will not think of making them decentralized even if it is at the expense of making transactions cheaper and slower. Even if we assume the success of the protocol, it will not be on the XRP network, as governments will not risk placing financial centers in a single company that is not owned by those countries. In short, comparing XRP with SWIFT is illogical.

I don't know for sure. I keep hearing that their CBDC's (let's hope for mankind that this will not happen, as this is digital slavery) would run on XRP. If XRP will not be used in this manner, I wonder why Ripple has so many non disclosure agreements with banks all over the world. I can't imagine that Ripple would be doing all of this if they didn't intend to be a part of the monetary system. If the CEO didn't believe that he could be a part of the monetary system, would he not have given up by now?



This is what I used to think. But there is 1 thing missing.
Bitcoin has a fixed supply but you don't have to burn bitcoin to make a transaction. The supply remains fixed to the amount of BTC that has been mined at that point. It was intended as a store of value (which it is) but it is not very suited as a medium of exchange because it is too slow for that. So while BTC is a good store of value, completely out of government hands, it is not a good medium of exchange.

For XRP there is a burn rate per transaction, which bitcoin does not have. I believe it is 0.0001 XRP per transaction. However with millions of transactions per day on a global scale, this adds up quickly. This decreases the supply of XRP and it is inflationary for the token price. Someone has calculated that XRP could be running for 70 years at that burn rate, but I have to verify this. So you can't think of XRP being fixed at 100 billion permanently. This number will decrease as adoption rises. In the current SWIFT system, there are roughly 5000 financial transactions per second globally. BTC could never process this. XRP could. It would bring down the 100B max supply and cause the price to rise.

With the maximum BTC supply at 21 million and the maximum XRP supply at 100 billion, you could say that 1 BTC is roughly as rare as 5000 XRP at this point.
However, this does not include that XRP has a burn rate.
5000 XRP costs about $2500 today. 1 BTC is about 30x that amount, because its market cap is roughly 30x the one of Ripple.
I am hoping that my $2500 XRP investment will ever be the equivalent of owning 1 BTC.

Claiming that 1 XRP could reach a million dollars seems very silly. I don't believe it either. But if XRP gets chosen and only 1% of the SWIFT system gets to the XRP ledger, this would pump the price of XRP over $100 overnight. This is a 200x on my investment, and would make my life very comfortable.

I could have kicked myself in the nuts for not buying BTC when I first heard about it at $150.
My arguments were that holders would be taxed the sh!t out of upon conversion to euro/dollar. Or they would be jailed, or unbanked. But even if this had a 80% chance of being true, I should have invested $1000 in case I was wrong.

The main lesson I learned is that if I believe that some coin has a 20% chance of mass adoption, I am going to bet 1 monthly net wage on that coin. At the moment I am doing this with 3 altcoins. Everything else I own is BTC and ETH (85% allocation) which I do not intend to sell in the next 20 years.

I believe that the transition takes a lot of time. Maybe even a decade. I also believe that SWIFT will come down when the global debt bubble bursts, somewhere in the next 5 years. There will have to be a substitute, and I wonder on which tech their CBDC's will be running. But it can't be SWIFT.

Even if it is true that most governments will not have their digital currency run on XRP, I wonder what happens to the token price when a few tiny countries do decide to take part in it.

Even if there is a 80% chance that XRP will never achieve mass adoption, I'm holding on to my small allocation in case I am wrong. I think it's either a 200x (or more), or going to 0.

xrp will never replace swift function because swift is an institution that bridges transactions between banks globally and it has been running for a long time, and in any case xrp cannot replace their function even when they offer something that exceeds swift function. it's not about innovation and or whatever xrp brings, but about the credibility and trust built by swift. you can check their history and how the institution can spread throughout the world, surely you understand their reputation.

banking and finance heavily depend on trust and XRP has had a lawsuit in the past, just think from the point of view of these bankers and big financial institutions, moving over to XRP from SWIFT is unnecessary risk that they gonna take and it can implicate many things, of course they won't risk it just to abandon the system that they've built for decades already. unless the scene of banking and finance changed dramatically and there's urgent need of better solution.

maybe it can be utilized for an alternative, since there are plenty of financial institutions already used XRP, such as Western Union as far as I know. if the integration of XRP could prove to be profitable for some of these financial institutions, then maybe XRP can start getting some adoptions.

I do agree.
Why bother with XRP if there is a reliable and credible solution already?
The advantages should be bigger than their opposites, and for now, it's not like that, otherwise, it would happen.

Many economists expect the current financial system to collapse under the 35 trillion national debt, expanding at unstoppable speed like an avalanche that is coming. I wonder why people speak about reliability when inflation goes through the roof and you have to justify to a bank clerk why you want to cash out $4000 of your own money. I personally think that the next crash will be the end of the monetary system and the end of SWIFT, somewhere in the next 4 years. Most likely blamed on war, or a Trump presidency.

I think that big banking institutions like innovation, but they like to keep their power. For example the power to kick Russia out of the SWIFT system.
So while the leading powers in the banking industry may not want to lose that privilege, countries like Russia might be happy to build their own system.
I just read that XRP partnered with Hedera, which enables financial transactions 100x more energy efficiënt than VISA. In fact VISA is a part of their governing board.

I'm still excited about it. Time will tell

Swift is too huge to be replaced by anything right now, the only people who can replace it are the ones who built swift to begin with. Plus it doesn't have to be XRP, just because that company is trying to achieve that doesn't mean that they will, they have been found guilty of so many things and I do not think that any government would let a criminal to take over such a big part of the deal, unless they are bribed of course lol.

Banks do it the way they do it now and if they ever want to change it then banks will figure out a system of their own again and replace it with that. We need to realize that it is not XRP's reach to do something like this, it is going to be hard and very difficult to achieve something like this size, so lose your hopes about it becoming this big in the end.

The statement that XRP lost its usefulness after the emergence of stablecoins is not completely accurate, but there are several points that can be understood from this perspective.
XRP (Ripple) is designed to facilitate cross-border transactions with low fees and high speed. Ripple's main focus is to be a solution for banks and financial institutions to overcome inefficiencies in the global payment system. In contrast, stablecoins are designed to offer price stability by tying their value to assets such as the US dollar, gold or other assets.

While stablecoins offer certain advantages, especially in terms of price stability, XRP still has an important role to play in the global payments ecosystem, especially when it comes to cross-border transactions.

decisive part is that a bank risks too much if they (the bank) switches to xrp.
Also due to the law suits still hanging over ripple.

I think the world is not ready yet for a global blockchain network. SWIFT may be old, but it's still the most trusted network for international payments. The XRP Ledger is superior, but widely unproven. We can't know for sure how capable it'll be for day-to-day payments (scalability). Besides, Ripple (the company) will a hard time trying to please the regulators. Facebook came with a similar project (Libra/Diem) only to be taken down by the regulators.

In a stunning turn of events, SWIFT could adopt Blockchain tech for its own benefit and render XRP useless. Until then, we should expect XRP to remain a speculative cryptocurrency. At least, it's liked among many banks worldwide. If by any chance the XRP Ledger replaces SWIFT, market prices for XRP will skyrocket like crazy. Investing in it would be a gamble, based on past market performance. Who knows what will happen in the future?

The problem about replacing something like SWIFT is that people trust it and it works, so there is no reason to change it right now. I get that you may want to change stuff when they get old, but usually that's either when it breaks or you would have to come up with a much much better method. However, XRP isn't a much better option, in fact XRP is actually worse than SWIFT and I do not think that anyone would want to use it over swift, so why would they do it?

If one day there will be something that replaces SwIFT then it will be either because SWIFT isn't enough anymore and not working properly or it would be because they figured out some greater method. XRP investors would love to dream of a day like this but the bad news for them is that it is not going to happen and this isn't their future.

it is not the people who need to trust it. Its the banks who need to do that.
If I can decide what coin to use it'll be Litecoin. Of 25 clients maybe one wishes to try.

Like you said, not yet. But will it ever happen? I really think so.

The first question is "what would it take for something like SWIFT to be replaced?".

It will not happen voluntarily. I think the answer is that it takes the end of the current monetary system to occur. The last time such a crash happened was after WWII when the US dollar was set as the global world reserve currency.
I think we are very close to a complete reset. Not because I believe in crazy conspiracies, but because the 35 trillion dollar US national debt is like an avalanche at full speed, coming for all of us and it is already in sight. I think it will end with economic hardship, bank failures and hyperinflation. Basically 1929 all over again. There is footage of those bank runs.

For the big banks and governments to implement their desired digital surveillance state, it will take a lot of innovation.
I think eventually all of it will become blockchain based. Maybe not yet in the near future, but we will get there.
And I wonder if they could build their own blockchain completely behind closed doors, or they would have to use tech that is known to the public. I think the latter


Or it would adopt blockchain tech by integrating XRP in it.
I'd have to look into how the consensus mechanism works.
I don't know if banks could use XRP and still maintain their power

Of course. Why "reinvent the wheel" by making a new Blockchain from scratch? It makes sense to use an existing Blockchain ledger for governments and central banks' own benefit. Will it be XRP? Considering that it's centralized, there's a high chance XRP will replace SWIFT in the future. Everything will depend on how favorably the regulators view this. If they give the "green light", then the XRP Ledger would be on a path towards becoming the largest payments system in the future.

Most likely, market prices will boom as a result of increased demand. One can only imagine what will happen in the long run. If XRP fails, then another project will take its place. Perhaps, SWIFT will adopt Blockchain tech to avoid getting left behind in the dust? The suspense is "killing me". :D

Yeah, as many said out there - why create something that's already reliable and proven with time?
Too much risk to handle.

Swift is already working on a new system under BIS. BIS being the central banking institution, the bank of international settlements.
https://www.bis.org/

I don't think that Ripple should try to replace swift, rather it should aim for the corporate sector.
The corporate sector is much more interested in seamless money transfer with little loss and a guarantee to get fund back if an error happened.

But is it powered by Blockchain? I've checked the website, but there is no mention of Blockchain or Distributed Ledger Tech (DLT) whatsoever. Maybe I'm missing something? Without Blockchain, SWIFT would be unable to cut costs and reduce wait times. Not to mention, it will be missing all of the tech's security benefits. If Ripple promotes the XRP Ledger well, banks will adopt it for international payments at a large scale. This means reduced market share/dominance for SWIFT.

Either SWIFT embraces the revolution or gets left behind in the dust. Worse case scenario, Ripple makes a partnership with SWIFT and the XRPL gets used for international settlements between banks in their preferred currency of choice. All without dealing with regulators or even having to close up shop for good (in the case of SWIFT). This would only happen if banks are serious in using the XRPL. I mean, why not make a private blockchain of their own? XRP's future is unpredictable, so anything's possible. :D

All bankers like to count money, so everything depends on the cost of the network and on the costs of its launch and maintenance. Although more and more attention is now being paid to cryptocurrencies, many believe that cryptocurrencies are the future.

Cryptocurrencies are the future for some. So far a few million crypto friendly humans.
Crypto being a bubble in the sense that there are many who hodle and only a few who actually work with it.
Crypto lending is one of the few spots where the technique shines and that without regulation.

I lost some 10c staking some alts.

10c... What does that mean?  ???

10 Cent worth of a coin some 100 t of an altcoin in staking. The company did not pay.

Crypto is the future. Even banks have shown interest in it. Especially the tech underpinning crypto (which is Blockchain tech). At the time of this writing, there are plenty of banks who have a strong partnership with Ripple. Some of them have even tested XRP for B2B (Bank to Bank) transfers. Would you imagine the XRP Ledger being used at a large scale for cross-border payments? It would prove to be more cost-efficient, faster, and secure than the outdated SWIFT system.

What's keeping SWIFT alive is none other than "trust" among major banks in the world. Ripple's XRP, on the other hand, is relatively new to the world. To build up trust, Ripple needs to prove it's the ideal replacement of SWIFT. Slowly, but surely it will get there. Assuming SWIFT doesn't adopt Blockchain tech and US regulators treat Ripple nicely. We can't predict the future, so I'd hope for the best. :)

To be fair, XRP is getting a few banks cancelling after their legal dispute, so I do agree that we are going to see Banks use blockchain a lot more, but it doesn't have to be XRP, we could see them do it themselves in the future when they get to that point.

I have seen XRP grow with B2B but that doesn't mean that XRP will be loved by these banks forever, and this legal dispute they had proved that. With them shrinking, the XRP coin got a bit lower as well, proven by the fact that many of the coins not only went their all time high prices in 2021, they went higher, and then in 2024 they went higher as well, whereas XRP is still lower than the 2018 one, so it's clear that XRP is still very low and can't reach the previous all time high, proving that it's not that much liked at all.

It is difficult to compete with the system between XRP and SWIFT, it seems difficult to become a reality, there are indeed limitations of XRP in terms of its volume, and that is a difficulty in itself or by establishing cooperation between larger financial companies, so that it can increase the currency, but that is difficult to do.

What's stopping banks from copying XRP's source code and launching a blockchain of their own? They will do what's best for them. If Ripple (the company) wants to be in the game, it needs to obtain the favor of banks and regulators alike. Remember when Facebook tried to launch a stablecoin-backed blockchain ledger, only to be turned down by regulators in the long run? The same might happen with Ripple's XRP if it's careless.

It's all about making the regulators happy to keep moving forward. Especially with a centralized "shitcoin" such as XRP. The odds of XRP Ledger replacing SWIFT are slim. But anything's possible. If the project focuses on utility instead of hype, it will be getting somewhere. Just my thoughts. :D

Ripple should negociate with BIS then.
They have a new system in the works. So better hurry.

XRP offers faster & cheaper cross border transactions compared to the SWIFT system but it faces significant regulatory & adoption challenges. SWIFT has established big relationships with financial institutions worldwide. The transition to XRP or any alternative would require widespread acceptance & integration within existing financial frameworks making an outright replacement unlikely in the near future. Advancements in blockchain tech may influence future developments in international payments.

So do many other coins.
Main difference is that swift can be used to get a transfer back.

SEC is off the hooks of XRP, and Garry is gone soon too - maybe we will see something out of it in the end, however, I don't see it as being adopted in a broader sense.
Maybe in some decades or so things would look differently.
XRP is limited and not so reliable, especially for institutions.

They should continue to hope, it will not happen. I don't know why people think like that, a blockchain system like Ripple that is not even trustworthy with enough court cases will replace the SWIFT system, that must be a joke. By virtue of how the SWIFT system works, it's a blessing to the economy and many banks benefit from it. So all the benefits will now go to Ripple, just like that?

I don't know what XRP tends to achieve with that because it is an unstable coin, it is not reliable, and a stablecoin is better for that purpose.

It's obvious that we are not going to get anything great out of this, it's just not possible and we can't make that work at all, it's just not that simple and can't move forward with life at all, should be a proper period where people realize XRP is just a shitcoin disguised as a financial product that's it.

This isn't a simple feat though, it's been a decade and there are still people trusting it for some reason, but at least we have seen it go down from second rank, and we are seeing it do much better these days, so we need to learn to trust it one way or another, that's the way things move and that's how we could make some good sense in this market as well. XRP is just a shitcoin and my only advice would be staying away from it.

I think this is also the main thing that hold back institutions from adopting XRP, the irreversible nature of the transaction, we all know there's few case where banks just got stolen of their balance and with SWIFT it's irreversible, the damage can be undone as long as it's not too late but i'm not so sure about XRP, since XRP is irreversible as far as I know, maybe the financial institutions are just so doubtful whether the benefit of cheap and fast transaction outweight the disadvantage of mitigating danger.

That's what I've been saying all along. SWIFT is deemed trustworthy, while Ripple's XRP Ledger is not. I think this has to do with the fact that SWIFT's been a long time in the system (seniority). XRP is relatively new to the world, with just 10 years in the making. Banks will prefer SWIFT because they trust it. Even if SWIFT is often slow and expensive to use.

Believe me, the time will come when XRP will render SWIFT obsolete. Assuming SWIFT doesn't make use of Blockchain tech in the long run. If it does, then there would be no need for XRP. Who cares what will happen with a "centralized shitcoin", anyways? Bitcoin is the only coin we need to achieve true financial freedom and self-sovereignity. As long as it's still alive, nothing else matters. :D

If it is to happen, it will be a decades-long grind between those two, and even then - whales and institutions are all in for the systems that already work nicely.
Risks are not for them.

The world is bigger than the US.
Still banks look to the US for guidance and finance.

It's not even just seniority, it's just trusted more and that's it, even if both started at the same time, SWIFT provided proof that it's great, and there is no volatility and it's just moving money from one place to another, XRP on the other hand is not, it's a coin, and ripple is the company that uses blockchain to move money around, but it takes layers, and there is no need for it.

In the end, there is no argument here, SWIFT is just far superior way to move money from one way to another for those banks, and because of that, timing doesn't matter, SWIFT could have started even after XRP was invented, and it would still be used more, because it's a better way to do it, so why would banks not go with the better method and use XRP instead?

irreversible means nothing if both financial institutions trusts each other because they can just send it back if things goes wrong, I think these big financial institutions will eventually find a big road block towards increase in efficiency and will ditch SWIFT eventually and try out XRP instead.

as always, the nature always prefer things to be effective and fast so does these big financial institutions they gotta need to pump that number up and SWIFT will be seen as the thing that pull them back.

BIS worked on mBridge.
Swift is planning an alternative for their own system.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/swift-planning-launch-new-central-bank-digital-currency-platform-12-24-months-2024-03-25/