Bitcoin Forum

from my blog;

http://rgsneddon.thescribe.eu/#post103 (http://rgsneddon.thescribe.eu/#post103)

The next generation of bitcoin mining machines, which have been billed to be running with super-efficient 20nm chips, will be delayed by a few months compared to the actual shipping dates initially advised by the bitcoin mining rig manufacturers. In a confidential document seen today, actual cybershuttle cycle time figures on the 20nm technology, which will be included in the Swedish mining manufacturer KnC and the US Cointerra, shows shuttle times of around 130days, with 16nm at 171 days.

KnC announced at the beginning of March this year that they had taped out their chip, which would put the delay of their hotly anticipated ‘Neptune’ 3-terrahash mining rig back, until at least the end of 2014 (Q4). Even if all goes well in the build and test, and KnC keep to their advertised 20nm; looking at the shuttle times, these won’t ship out sample units until at least August, and more likely September with build, testing and packaging yet to be done on the full build for customer batches.

With much frustration emitting from the bitcoin mining community over recent failures by other miner hardware manufacturers to ship on time, and on specifications advertised, this looks to be another hurdle for these companies, who are likely to face yet more angry mobs in IRC channels and internet forums.

The documentation seen today, shows 20nm as a ‘tester’ , or a ‘stepping stone’ for the upcoming 16nm. Let’s hope that these bitcoin miner manufacturers do a good solid burn-in to test their customer’s rigs before shipping them out.

All the manufacturers are doing full masks of course and not shuttle (which is shared die for several designs). Full masks takes more or less the same as shuttle.

Ha, I knew it!  Get ready for the spectacular hosted-only "Neptune" plan B. 

Calm down cloudmining champ :P . Remember you can get your hosted Neptune from the time they are late, until they release the actual hardware. You don't have to switch completely from a hardware order to a hosted dat0rhall order.

So the KnC 'Plan B' is to be an added extra to cover delays after all, and not an either/or option with hardware or cloud..? Forgive me if I read that one wrong. I wasn't concentrating on any particular manufacturer when I did my research for the above blog post.

I can almost guarantee that you will have to waive your rights to receive hardware if you choose Plan B.

You're wrong.  Just wait.

i'd be more concerned regarding the stability of any 20nm miners. I have it on good authority that these are simply a stepping stone to 16nm. I would imagine this is why T/O of 20nm (for bitcoin mining) happened so fast... it's a tech which isn't wholly desirable by the mass market. I'll have a 16nm washing machine before you have a 20nm miner.

I don't doubt you will.  That's why I'm sure Plan B is now the only option.

I agree that the 20nm is just a "road map" to 16/14nm. What is strange is that the NRE costs on a 20nm are basically double that of a 28nm, so in terms of the power reduction and speed increase then the 20nm is not a good choice for miners, however since KNC would be factoring their NRE into their prices then it would be a good choice for them.

not just double the costs, but double the bake-time. And yes, although I think I've probably said to much in other threads, without trying to point fingers at any particular h/w manufacturer - the majority are putting a hefty mark-up on prices. but.. that's just the cost of a money-printing machine i guess.  :-\

The hefty mark ups could be because of the NRE costs. Because a manufacturer cannot accurately estimate their sales volume then they must price at a low sales volume estimate. However, this still produces close to 200-500% mark up, which also means a 200-500% reduction in a miners potential profit.

couple that with the fact that miners will mostly pay the rates offered without argument or barter. If shopping was halted as miners held off from buying, that would be the only cause and reason for h/w manufacturers to drop prices. Doesn't happen though.

Weren't we supposed to get plan b? I want my Neptune raskul

i'd say.. isn't it about time? but who would listen?

http://www.woodlaw.com/blog/customers-unite-bring-class-action-against-butterfly-labs

"by the time some consumers finally received their equipment, the equipment had become worthless because mining with the equipment was no longer cost effective."

Mining h/w manufacturers:  take note of this. this situation is real and YOU WILL LOSE.

Where's the proof of the delay or is this some fear mongering?

sorry I am still in conversations with my sources, therefore cannot divulge the documents shown to me. I have no concern about your trust in me, you may choose to either believe me, or not. It makes no odds to me.

best wishes.

The difficulty will probably be over 200 Billion by the time 20nm is established.  How much hashing power will be needed then just to break even with electricity costs?  Theoretical 50TH machine would lose $ thousands per month

The main problem is network difficulty, but chip power efficiency will delay the losses somewhat

20nm won't provide much of an increase in efficiency, and in this miners are about to hit a hardware wall. 14 or 16 nm will provide even less of an efficiency bump at one hell of a tab for NRE. As we're not even at 20nm as the standard chip size, we're a long ways from 16nm and 14nm. 28-40 will be the norm for a while to come yet.

From AsicMINER Gen 1 140nm to KnC 28nm the difference is huge, but that difference is now less and less and more and more expense to develop and produce. $/hash should now effectively stabilize since there isn't much lower they can go, and the benefits of doing so are nill. Whatever efficiency bonus gained is instantly wiped out by extremely high cost per chip.

Agreed, the chase for performance.

In the meantime Bitmain is killing it with their 55nm chips because they can design and go to market faster than anyone else.  In 5 months they are on second product cycle already and have a 20+ and soon to be 30+ % hash network.

Operatr is very correct inasmuch; the differences in efficiency, are minuscule. What we should be seeing of course, will be larger rigs at a massively reduced $/GH/s (or even cents/GH/s). I would imagine any 16nm rig would need to be sold at <$0.40/Gh/s and provide >10TH/s to accomplish genuine viability in an increasing network hash. We are already seeing more efficient 55nm chips and even though KnC made the bold move to pre-sale the Neptune, by the time they are shipped, we are going to see a like-for-like efficiency in larger chips, comparable to that of the 20nm.

With regards to that increasing network difficulty, if one is able to get ~5TH/s running in a home environment from just a couple of rigs before; say autumn (fall), then you may break even on these, depending on the prices you have paid for such effect. I think there is one h/w manufacturer currently offering bundles to this scale - at a price which is clearly selling in the marketplace. Forgive me, i haven't done the mathematics on ROI for any of these, numbers isn't my strong point. However, the next step up is going to have-to-be a game-changer, and my only concern is how we are going to be able to spread the hash-power when it arrives. Somehow the gentle art of persuasion (to steer manufacturers away from selling rigs to big buyers in bulk) may simply fall to those with the funds to invest and even if some kind of WASP Collective can be established, trust in partners is going to be key to the success for h/w companies who have integrity at their heart. Those who do not, and are not so careful, will continue to screw us over, such as the case with KnC; building their own farms - to date, with 13% of the entire network.

I note a post on the spondoolies-tech thread which remarks upon WASP; perhaps this can work? I'll be watching that one attentively.