Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Sanitough on October 21, 2024, 02:31:22 AM



Title: This bull run is different...
Post by: Sanitough on October 21, 2024, 02:31:22 AM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: potatotom on October 21, 2024, 02:59:16 AM
I think we have so many eyes and analysts on bitcoin, and they all know the same thing so it's not really a surprise that the market doesn't fit the previous patterns. If every *expects* the previous patterns show again, how can they. Please try to take advantage of them.

Also as for the mempool, I think it was just really spammed with BRC20 tokens, that's what made it expensive. And then I hope that the L2 solutions would ease a bit on the blockchain load so only bigger transactions should be on it and smaller should be on L2 solutions.

We had an influx of Rune mints a few days ago but those have subsided too. It's difficult to just use the "price" of the mempool without taking into account what kind of transactions are there.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: hd49728 on October 21, 2024, 03:03:11 AM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)).

Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
4 years for 1 market cycle and it's long time enough for many changes. 4 years are enough for better adoption of Bitcoin Segwit that can help people saving transaction fees. There are other things changed during same period like Taproot activation and adoption, that caused some spikes in Bitcoin mempools and transaction fees with Bitcoin Ordinals and Runes.

Generally fees are good in satoshi/vbyte but in fiat value, fees become higher because Bitcoin price increases with time.
https://transactionfee.info/charts/transactions-spending-segwit/
https://transactionfee.info/charts/payments-spending-segwit/
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html#alltime

And this bull run is actually different than previous bull runs.
We're experiencing the least volatile Bitcoin bull market ever. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5513345.0)


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: hugeblack on October 21, 2024, 03:09:37 AM
What makes you think that, the fee hike was happening at the end of the cycle when the correction was near and the price had exploded to new levels.

It is true that the fees are low but some are still paying higher fees either because of BRC-20 (Ordinals) or because they are using bad wallets which means there is a possibility that the fees will rise significantly in 2025.

If we take what happened in 2017 as an example of bad fees, we will find that the price rises first and then the fees rise.

https://talkimg.com/images/2024/10/21/8xDoC.png


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Darker45 on October 21, 2024, 03:15:47 AM
The primary reason is that the spams/scams are barely breathing. They had their days. They had their hype. Now, they're merely a dead trend, or perhaps only dormant as they might resurrect once opportunities arise like another halving or when there's a unique block mined or Sat issued or whatever.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Reatim on October 21, 2024, 04:03:09 AM
But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
If anything, this kind of shows how much Bitcoin has developed since then.

The fact that we find it much more convenient to move bitcoins now than before despite being on the brink of a proper bull run says a lot and should be enough motivation for those who want to buy and invest in bitcoin. How much improvement can bitcoin make in the next 4 years again? Well I am excited to find out and I’ll make sure to hold and monitor bitcoins until then.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Yatsan on October 21, 2024, 04:17:27 AM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.

It is remarkable, this bull run has taken on a different shape than the previous one. Especially when it comes to transaction costs, low wages are currently a huge advantage. This allows small businesses to operate without much cost pressure. This was not possible during the last bull market. At that time, networking caused fees to increase. This makes it nearly impossible to move Bitcoin unless you are dealing with large amounts of money.

One reason for the lower fees could be due to the testing technology used, such as SegWit and Lightning Network. These improvements actually reduce the burden on the Bitcoin blockchain, helping to make transactions faster and cheaper. It makes you wonder how things are going. How much easier will it get as adoption increases? And more and more people are starting to use these products.

The primary reason is that the spams/scams are barely breathing. They had their days. They had their hype. Now, they're merely a dead trend, or perhaps only dormant as they might resurrect once opportunities arise like another halving or when there's a unique block mined or Sat issued or whatever.

You're right, the hype about scams and spam seems to have died down. At least for now I think a lot of this is due to increased awareness and better safety measures across the industry. People are becoming more intelligent. and various platforms Work has been done to provide stronger protection for employees, however, as you point out. These problems can easily occur again. Especially during important events such as another fork or another important milestone in the development of Bitcoin. The interesting thing to ponder is whether the future of fraud will be the same. Or will it adapt to new features like DeFi targeting or NFTs, which have been hot topics lately? It feels like every bull run brings with it a new breed of opportunists who cling to what is favored. most popular

But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
If anything, this kind of shows how much Bitcoin has developed since then.

The fact that we find it much more convenient to move bitcoins now than before despite being on the brink of a proper bull run says a lot and should be enough motivation for those who want to buy and invest in bitcoin. How much improvement can bitcoin make in the next 4 years again? Well I am excited to find out and I’ll make sure to hold and monitor bitcoins until then.

I wholeheartedly agree. Amazing growth over the years. Especially in business performance. And, the fact is that the fees are relatively low even before a potential bull run. It also forms a good indicator of how successful the network has been. It's hard not to wonder if we would see improvements by then. What will happen in the next four years? Especially as the solutions like the Lightning Network continue to get better? It is interesting to think about what might drive future improvements. Maybe more expeditious operation of the business. Better inspection. Or maybe for increasing the level of secrecy? I definitely want to hold onto my Bitcoins and see how things unfold.



Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Plaguedeath on October 21, 2024, 04:29:55 AM
Or we can say $69K is nothing for majority, people think Bitcoin price will be higher than $69K, that's why they didn't move their coins now.

The launch of Bitcoin ETF make this time different, Bitcoin made new ATH before halving event, that's it, and we're experiencing less volatile than the previous super cycle. I expect it should be the same, the bull run started in Q4 after halving.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: FinneysTrueVision on October 21, 2024, 05:02:16 AM
The primary reason is that the spams/scams are barely breathing. They had their days. They had their hype. Now, they're merely a dead trend, or perhaps only dormant as they might resurrect once opportunities arise like another halving or when there's a unique block mined or Sat issued or whatever.

Even though the amount of spam has decreased, I would have expected to see a rise in economic transactions. With the price of bitcoin being so high and expected to increase even more, it might be harder for people to justify spending their BTC. I have even considered using Bitcoin as collateral for a stablecoin loan for making big purchases because I know that I will be regretful if I spend BTC and then we see a massive pump.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Smack That Ace on October 21, 2024, 05:11:46 AM
Or we can say $69K is nothing for majority, people think Bitcoin price will be higher than $69K, that's why they didn't move their coins now.

The launch of Bitcoin ETF make this time different, Bitcoin made new ATH before halving event, that's it, and we're experiencing less volatile than the previous super cycle. I expect it should be the same, the bull run started in Q4 after halving.

Bitcoin is approaching $70k again but from my observation, the market is not as excited and hyped as when bitcoin hit $70k earlier this year. Yes, you are right, the current price is $70k but that is considered normal, this is not a sign of bull season or that we are already in.

Overall: the general market sentiment is still more skeptical than confident that the bull season has started so it is no surprise that many people have not moved bitcoin yet or that transaction fees are still surprisingly low.

There's no denying that there's been a bit of a shift in the cycle this year but I still have a feeling that history is going to repeat itself again and we're very close to that. Bull season hasn't actually arrived yet, but it's coming.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Barikui1 on October 21, 2024, 09:56:09 AM
Or we can say $69K is nothing for majority, people think Bitcoin price will be higher than $69K, that's why they didn't move their coins now.

The launch of Bitcoin ETF make this time different, Bitcoin made new ATH before halving event, that's it, and we're experiencing less volatile than the previous super cycle. I expect it should be the same, the bull run started in Q4 after halving.

Bitcoin is approaching $70k again but from my observation, the market is not as excited and hyped as when bitcoin hit $70k earlier this year. Yes, you are right, the current price is $70k but that is considered normal, this is not a sign of bull season or that we are already in.

Overall: the general market sentiment is still more skeptical than confident that the bull season has started so it is no surprise that many people have not moved bitcoin yet or that transaction fees are still surprisingly low.

There's no denying that there's been a bit of a shift in the cycle this year but I still have a feeling that history is going to repeat itself again and we're very close to that. Bull season hasn't actually arrived yet, but it's coming.
Responding to the statement I made bold, by all indications it's very clear that we are already in the bull season, but it's actually not the type of bull run we are expecting,  though we might encounter another all time high before the close of this year but I think the logical thing to do now is  to keep our expectations low, because their is a higher probability that this might be the bull run we are waiting for.

Secondly, I really don't think it actually matters if it comes or not because in other to reap the full dividend of your Bitcoin holdings, it's best to hold in a very long period of time, because with the kind of potential Bitcoin has, I really do believe that it can 10x to 20x of it current price in 10 to 20 years time from now, so it's best to hold resiliently irrespective of wether the bull run comes or not, though I know that so many people will feel or think otherwise, but that's my own take though.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Wexnident on October 21, 2024, 10:06:42 AM
Isn't it price > fees that rise? And 69k probably isn't a price point for most people since we did reach it (and even higher) a few months ago. We might see it more after say, 72k at least. I at least expect something like it, probably a lot less than what usually happens since it isn't exactly a big jump from the few prices we've had these past few months.

Comparatively, I guess it can be different in a way that investors are expecting more now instead. Granted I'd probably wait till we reach 70k at least before judging since that's a point a lot of people are expecting to see changes happen from.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Yaunfitda on October 21, 2024, 10:35:28 AM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
It's probably that there are more miners right now and so hash rate is good as well and so with that, we are resistant to that kind of spam attack, although there is like in the last week or so that there is somewhat a increased in the transaction fees again, but eventually it died down and now we can say that this could be the normal fees even if we are at the start of the bull run.

Gone where the days that there are deliberate attack on the network itself, sure during that time it's really hard to make small transactions because of that. But we understand that those kind of attacks will not last. So no complained whatsoever, though, and hopefully even if we hit 6 digits, the transactions fees are still going to be cheap.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Akbarkoe on October 21, 2024, 12:28:43 PM
We are experiencing a calm increase and it does not happen exponentially so that it makes many other people fomo in making purchases or exchanges, so the current bitcoin price is still very calm even though it has reached $69k and does not happen like the previous cycle, and again the network in ordinals seems to be quite quiet which makes the bitcoin network safe and prosperous with transactions more people making purchases gradually.
But if it finds the target price of a big change it might be possible to compact the network again which will have an impact on network fees. ::)


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: passwordnow on October 21, 2024, 12:35:15 PM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run.
Every bull run is different. The first thing that we can classify of the difference for this cycle is about the prehalving and then it has got an ATH already. Usually, we see ATHs posthalvings but we have seen that it became different this time. And one of the pain in the a$$ during those times were the fees and it's not really encouraging at all but still because of the high price, it's able to get our feelings right.

Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
I can remember those days that if you transact for a $5 coffee, you'll have to pay more than that. And we've seen it in the past few months that the fee have became more than $100 and that's a crazy attack on the market by those runes and brc20 network.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Baofeng on October 21, 2024, 01:44:13 PM
We are experiencing a calm increase and it does not happen exponentially so that it makes many other people fomo in making purchases or exchanges, so the current bitcoin price is still very calm even though it has reached $69k and does not happen like the previous cycle, and again the network in ordinals seems to be quite quiet which makes the bitcoin network safe and prosperous with transactions more people making purchases gradually.
But if it finds the target price of a big change it might be possible to compact the network again which will have an impact on network fees. ::)

Market is slowing down, no we have another correction at $67k, so it means that $68k is too big for us to hurdle as this point. There could be FOMO though, and so this is a great opportunity for them to buy and see how if we can push it to $69k and then maintain at that level.

Nevertheless, this kind of cycle is very old in my opinion, after reaching a certain barrier, then what follows is a minor correction.

As for the network fees or the transaction fees, it's back to normal although there is period last week that it increased again and we are worry that it might continue. Good thing is that it didn't happened, but unfortunately, price is sliding in the last 4 hours or so.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Akbarkoe on October 21, 2024, 02:08:59 PM
We are experiencing a calm increase and it does not happen exponentially so that it makes many other people fomo in making purchases or exchanges, so the current bitcoin price is still very calm even though it has reached $69k and does not happen like the previous cycle, and again the network in ordinals seems to be quite quiet which makes the bitcoin network safe and prosperous with transactions more people making purchases gradually.
But if it finds the target price of a big change it might be possible to compact the network again which will have an impact on network fees. ::)

Market is slowing down, no we have another correction at $67k, so it means that $68k is too big for us to hurdle as this point. There could be FOMO though, and so this is a great opportunity for them to buy and see how if we can push it to $69k and then maintain at that level.

Nevertheless, this kind of cycle is very old in my opinion, after reaching a certain barrier, then what follows is a minor correction.

As for the network fees or the transaction fees, it's back to normal although there is period last week that it increased again and we are worry that it might continue. Good thing is that it didn't happened, but unfortunately, price is sliding in the last 4 hours or so.

Yes the correction is a natural thing to happen, and that is to form a normal structure in market movements, price correction to the lower $ 65k is a natural thing, of course this is an opportunity to add to the bitcoin or people who want to buy because they do not have it. , how long the price polarization depends on how this trend will continue because sometimes the sideway is also needed for the accumulation stage.

But the increase is not so big for the cost and can still be tolerated, yes even though I want to get the best it does have to pay more expensive, but I hope Bitcoin does not have a very expensive fee when it reaches $ 100K.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: STT on October 21, 2024, 02:28:26 PM
Were the fees high at all this year because we had a great big rush at the year start and have been confirming those prices ever since.   No great movement at the moment and its only slightly altered in the BTC price action, we've yet to break out.

Recent price action has been all highs so the slight pull-back we have now is just to the weekly average at 67k .   If we hold this I think we'll find more positive action and attempts to break the ceiling overhead.

If we trade below 67k and continue to do so for the rest of this week then we wont end October so much as positive as it could have been.   I think this whole year end will be a bit of a mix not a rush that might cause the high fees, its not nearly that fevered just yet.   Dead calm before the storm perhaps :D


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: mirakal on October 21, 2024, 05:13:58 PM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
I think each bull run is different but comes with a common goal, that is to reward us after long term hodling and trading while waiting for the perfect timing to sell. So whether it takes so long or too quick to witness bull run in the market, and the transaction fees might vary, but one thing is certain, if we have the patience and persistency to wait for its perfect timing, then we will all benefit once bull run has finally comes.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: letteredhub on October 21, 2024, 05:41:33 PM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
I thought we had experience of network congestion twice this year which left a lot of persons complaining about the tx fees been very high and in some cases higher than the amount to be withdrawn. Lol.
Just maybe this time the price hadn't reached to that price mark when such congestions will return again, I suspect if bitcoin price has gone passed $70k we would have been noticing a few tx price rise too but for now let enjoy the low fees mate. :D


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: coolcoinz on October 21, 2024, 06:35:54 PM
Or we can say $69K is nothing for majority, people think Bitcoin price will be higher than $69K, that's why they didn't move their coins now.

The launch of Bitcoin ETF make this time different, Bitcoin made new ATH before halving event, that's it, and we're experiencing less volatile than the previous super cycle. I expect it should be the same, the bull run started in Q4 after halving.

Exactly. I've been holding for almost a decade and I don't really care about $70k, which is why I held my coins in Spring and now again when it approaches $70k I'm planning to keep holding.

In the grand scheme of things, when the US and China are printing money and cutting rates, when there's a chance to get a US president who claims to be pro-bitcoin, with ETFs online and doing good, there's no way bitcoin can stay at $70k.

We've all seen this price in 2021. Now after 3 years of high inflation, the good old $70k bitcoin from 2021 is worth $85k because the real value of fiat money has fallen so much. 

In my view, bitcoin is eventually going to $100k, be it this year or the next and that's something I'm ready to wait for.
How many of you, who hold 1 BTC right now could make ~$30k in a few months of doing nothing? I'm not poor, but $30k is a significant amount of money, especially when you multiply by the number of bitcoin in your cold storage.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Justbillywitt on October 21, 2024, 07:40:56 PM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
I don't really think that bull run has started already, Bitcoin is definitely going to meet some resistance somewhere before it break the ATH. There is still going to be a market correction so I don't think the bull run has started.

So are you suggesting that it is high fees that do usher in the bull run? I don't really think so. The bull run will start as more liquidity keeps coming in, irrespective of the transaction sizes. It is not really about the transaction size that matters. It's about demand for bitcoin and how much holders than sellers that are coming in. I think the high transaction fee of the last bull run, was mearly coincidence. Let it not be seen as a norm that lead to bull run.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: AVE5 on October 21, 2024, 07:53:50 PM
If this your analysis is based on bitcoin bull run, then I'd assume the different is that we haven't gotten to the bull run yet so, let's watch out for when we finally get to the bull run if the past transaction fees and this current circle transaction fees would tally.
I don't also expect a high transaction fees at this time because there's no congestion transactions and investors are not moved to sell their coins yet since we haven't broken the record or the current ATH yet.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: LogitechMouse on October 21, 2024, 08:49:09 PM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
It's quite surprising TBH that we are seeing the transaction fees this low while the price of Bitcoin increases gradually.
I respect your opinion regarding the market being in a bull run already, but I don't think that we are there yet.

I still can't see those people in euphoric state where everybody's talking about bull run online. During the last bull run, many are talking about it, and the sentiment around the market is very positive. Right now, it isn't the case and that's why I can't say that we are in a bull market yet. I mean everybody has different perspective on whether we're on a bull market or not. TBH, I also think that this bull run would be different as well. I don't how it will be different from its past bull run back in 2021, but aside from the low transaction fees, I believe there's something unexpected that we will be seeing.

Whatever the case is, let's just be ready for what's happening, and I hope all of us accumulate enough Bitcoins already. :)


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: EarnOnVictor on October 21, 2024, 10:55:06 PM
About the bull run, yeah, we are in the season, only that it is not impressive yet. The ATH has been stuck since March, I don't think it is now that Bitcoin will hit it again, not to mention breaching it higher. It might take time, but it may happen during the US election week and subsequent months, as it has always helped with Bitcoin's rise. But for the transaction fees, it's not the lowest though but reasonable. And the factors I can think of as responsible are people abandoning Bitcoin for their transactions and moving to altcoins. This has naturally created a lower demand for the network.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: tabas on October 21, 2024, 11:12:36 PM
then I'd assume the different is that we haven't gotten to the bull run yet so, let's watch out for when we finally get to the bull run if the past transaction fees and this current circle transaction fees would tally.
Hmm, not yet in a bull run? but we're close to the former ATH that has happened for this year and that was just this March. We're already on it but I guess people's expectation is superior nowadays of thinking more to come to the price as soon as possible. Everyone has to look at the chart and it doesn't have to be an analysis but just a recognition of how this year has been going so far. We're close to the end of this year and it has gotten a lot to the point that everyone wants more just like me.


I don't also expect a high transaction fees at this time because there's no congestion transactions and investors are not moved to sell their coins yet since we haven't broken the record or the current ATH yet.
Hoping for that to happen until the bull run ends. We can't be sure that transaction fees won't fluctuate, they will also fluctuate just like what we've seen a few months ago.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Darker45 on October 22, 2024, 01:39:29 AM
The primary reason is that the spams/scams are barely breathing. They had their days. They had their hype. Now, they're merely a dead trend, or perhaps only dormant as they might resurrect once opportunities arise like another halving or when there's a unique block mined or Sat issued or whatever.

Even though the amount of spam has decreased, I would have expected to see a rise in economic transactions. With the price of bitcoin being so high and expected to increase even more, it might be harder for people to justify spending their BTC. I have even considered using Bitcoin as collateral for a stablecoin loan for making big purchases because I know that I will be regretful if I spend BTC and then we see a massive pump.

It's not retail that's primarily driving the market right now. It's huge institutions. And so there's not really a high competition in the network as transactions are few yet large. The combined Bitcoin ETF market is in the billions of daily volume. But they can hardly affect transaction fees as they aren't doing their thing on-chain.

Spending Bitcoin is best when the price is at the top, not when the price is low and has yet to enter the bull run. But, yeah, if there's an anticipated increase, you better keep those coins.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: d5000 on October 22, 2024, 02:58:25 AM
Fees are already somewhat higher than some weeks ago, considering that the Runes/Ordinals boom has waned largely. 85% of transactions approximately are payments, i.e. not related to Ordinals, Runes or other data transactions. And it's becoming difficult to see fees of less than 10 sat/vByte with the exception of weekends and some less active hours.

Also you have to take into account that if the current bull cycle is at least 2 1/2 years long like in the past -- e.g. early 2015 to late 2017 was almost 3 years, and late 2018 to late 2021 too -- then we are still in the mid-bull market, not in the final leg which will take place probably in 2025.

The graph posted here by @hugeblack (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5514009.msg64655079#msg64655079) shows that in 2016 the fees were low, but approximately one year previous to the cycle high, i.e. in early 2017, they already began to rise. They still weren't very high, but it was already a noticeable difference.

In the last bull run 2019-21 we had a similar pattern (https://mempool.jhoenicke.de/#BTC,all,weight): In 2019 the fees were low. They started to increase in mid-2020, but still returning to low levels at weekends and in quieter hours and weeks. It was in 2021 when they got really expensive.

2023/24 was an anomaly due to Ordinals and Runes. I don't know if there's a way to calculate how low the fees would have been without inscriptions and other data stuff, but it's very likely that they would have been even lower than now. When people were beginning to complain about Ordinals, I remember regularly 1 sat/vByte transactions were still going through.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Smack That Ace on October 22, 2024, 04:02:27 AM
Secondly, I really don't think it actually matters if it comes or not because in other to reap the full dividend of your Bitcoin holdings, it's best to hold in a very long period of time, because with the kind of potential Bitcoin has, I really do believe that it can 10x to 20x of it current price in 10 to 20 years time from now, so it's best to hold resiliently irrespective of wether the bull run comes or not, though I know that so many people will feel or think otherwise, but that's my own take though.

There is nothing wrong and even great if someone can hold bitcoin for 10 or 20 years, and those are the people who really believe in bitcoin and are real investors. But I doubt many of us will be able to do that because sometimes life doesn't allow us to do so. For whales, they invest with their spare money and it is a negligible amount for them, but most of us are people who have a difficult life and are struggling quite a bit with life. Everyone is waiting for bitcoin to explode, so I don't think many people will continue to invest in bitcoin if the price doesn't increase in the coming years.

It's easy to say but doing it is another story entirely. We're taking on more risk when we invest in bitcoin and that means we're making trade-offs, so I think the idea of ​​holding bitcoin for 10 or 20 years and not having a bull run happen. I don't know about other people but I wouldn't trade off it that way.

I also see many people making bold claims like you, that they can hold bitcoin for 10 to 20 years and not care about returns, but I doubt all of them.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: DenBlad on October 22, 2024, 04:56:55 AM
I expect the fees and wallet addresses to reach a new All time high in 2025 as well. The latest developments of L1, L2, ordinals, BRC20, it is unavoidable to see all the charts go up for Bitcoin in 2025.


What makes you think that, the fee hike was happening at the end of the cycle when the correction was near and the price had exploded to new levels.

It is true that the fees are low but some are still paying higher fees either because of BRC-20 (Ordinals) or because they are using bad wallets which means there is a possibility that the fees will rise significantly in 2025.

If we take what happened in 2017 as an example of bad fees, we will find that the price rises first and then the fees rise.

https://talkimg.com/images/2024/10/21/8xDoC.png


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: STT on October 22, 2024, 05:22:02 AM
Quote
late 2018

Thats way too early to call it as part of the bullish movement.  I remember that period and it was dismal, it might have been great to buy in retrospect but nobody was thinking wow brilliant price for BTC when Im a buyer they were just thinking pure gloom.   2017 it was also not bright till late spring say and then it was increasingly obvious as a good though challenging and unstable market.

   Its only when we look back and see clearly but I reckon the market as a mass is fairly slow to catch on.   Feb 2017 was provably good at the time, it was the lowest prices which rose and gave that clue but lows are not well looked on as its a threat on every low so not a good feeling at the time.  I just try to remember from back then as a pattern of lows are a good place to look for direction, so recent lows have improved hence Im more optimistic of it leading to a far more noticeable positive in the highest prices.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: laijsica on October 22, 2024, 06:41:22 AM
If this your analysis is based on bitcoin bull run, then I'd assume the different is that we haven't gotten to the bull run yet so, let's watch out for when we finally get to the bull run if the past transaction fees and this current circle transaction fees would tally.
I don't also expect a high transaction fees at this time because there's no congestion transactions and investors are not moved to sell their coins yet since we haven't broken the record or the current ATH yet.
Accurately evaluating each price trend based on assumptions can be confusing for investors, so holdings of Bitcoin should be driven by accumulating trends. Anticipation of a bull run can motivate us to run more on each submission and efforts should be made to properly exploit small price correction opportunities. A positive view of the imposition of higher transaction fees at a time when Bitcoin's value is rising tends to encourage holdings. So you should focus on growing your holdings rather than allowing yourself to swim on top of the smaller bull on the price.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: BALIK on October 22, 2024, 08:22:57 AM
then I'd assume the different is that we haven't gotten to the bull run yet so, let's watch out for when we finally get to the bull run if the past transaction fees and this current circle transaction fees would tally.
Hmm, not yet in a bull run? but we're close to the former ATH that has happened for this year and that was just this March. We're already on it but I guess people's expectation is superior nowadays of thinking more to come to the price as soon as possible. Everyone has to look at the chart and it doesn't have to be an analysis but just a recognition of how this year has been going so far. We're close to the end of this year and it has gotten a lot to the point that everyone wants more just like me.
Many believe that the real bull season is yet to come because, in addition to setting higher targets, the bull season that everyone is waiting for is the entire market growing together. But what is happening is that only bitcoin and a few altcoins are growing, the rest of the market is not growing impressively yet. So there is nothing wrong with altcoin investors saying that the real bull season is yet to come.

The bull run of previous cycles, not only Bitcoin but the whole market grew like crazy and many altcoins, shitcoins increased in price by thousands of times...but this has not happened so far.
I don't also expect a high transaction fees at this time because there's no congestion transactions and investors are not moved to sell their coins yet since we haven't broken the record or the current ATH yet.
Hoping for that to happen until the bull run ends. We can't be sure that transaction fees won't fluctuate, they will also fluctuate just like what we've seen a few months ago.

Transaction fees have always increased significantly in previous bull cycles, so I don't expect this year to be any different, things will stay the same.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: icalical on October 22, 2024, 11:20:41 AM
I think this low fee is mostly because of the popularity of SegWit which lets the transactions just go way more smooth, and then also batching, where they just pile a whole bunch of transactions into one. These upgrades have helped to keep fees in check, even though demand is up, so it doesn't feel like those earlier bull runs where congestion sent costs through the roof. But as great as low fees are for microtransactions, we can't forget that network congestion can still spike during high usage moments, particularly when major news breaks. It's cheap now, yeah, but that doesn't mean it isn't going to spike once the mempool fills up again. All this keeps us on our toes and keeps Bitcoin in the experiment of trying to figure out how it will deal with scalability.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: tabas on October 22, 2024, 11:38:18 AM
then I'd assume the different is that we haven't gotten to the bull run yet so, let's watch out for when we finally get to the bull run if the past transaction fees and this current circle transaction fees would tally.
Hmm, not yet in a bull run? but we're close to the former ATH that has happened for this year and that was just this March. We're already on it but I guess people's expectation is superior nowadays of thinking more to come to the price as soon as possible. Everyone has to look at the chart and it doesn't have to be an analysis but just a recognition of how this year has been going so far. We're close to the end of this year and it has gotten a lot to the point that everyone wants more just like me.
Many believe that the real bull season is yet to come because, in addition to setting higher targets, the bull season that everyone is waiting for is the entire market growing together. But what is happening is that only bitcoin and a few altcoins are growing, the rest of the market is not growing impressively yet. So there is nothing wrong with altcoin investors saying that the real bull season is yet to come.

The bull run of previous cycles, not only Bitcoin but the whole market grew like crazy and many altcoins, shitcoins increased in price by thousands of times...but this has not happened so far.
If that's the "real" bull run, well I'd assume that it's higher than what we've got for this year. I might be wrong since there's no right or wrong with that assumption of the actual bull run in the perception of each of us. So, if most of the bags by a holder is with altcoins, can't blame them though as it's a fact that not many of the altcoins from this point have gotten up and they have to wait a lil' longer for that. Or that longer means by 2025 and it only takes a few months from now on to enter into that year. And as we've seen in the past that each bull run is different, it's just proving itself to be different and not majority of the alts are going to soar.

Hoping for that to happen until the bull run ends. We can't be sure that transaction fees won't fluctuate, they will also fluctuate just like what we've seen a few months ago.
Transaction fees have always increased significantly in previous bull cycles, so I don't expect this year to be any different, things will stay the same.
There were some moments in the past months when the network was spammed and that caused it to be that expensive. And we just hope for the best that the network stays calm while the price soars if the real or higher expected bull run comes in.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: bitterguy28 on October 22, 2024, 11:48:17 AM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
Actually early this year we have experienced another too much fees from Bitcoin and of course Ethereum,but that does not stand that long and now you are correct that we are in the cheapest transaction fees for a bull season .
We are thankful having this kind because it's easy and great when we are in the midst of buying and selling .


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: $weetne$$ on October 22, 2024, 02:07:36 PM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.

The bull run is not different but we have not reach the highest point of the bull market yet that is why Bitcoin network has not been as busy as it used to be during other bull market. What makes the fees increase is when the Bitcoin Blockchain is congested and not because it is a bull or bear market but most times the network get more usage during the bull market as there are many people buying and using theBlockchain therefore the network is more busy. Early this year the fees where also high but we were not in a bull market. Let us wait until next year before we can conclude if the fees did get high or it did not get high. All bull market can not be the same, we should not expect the same things that happened in previous bull market to happen in the next but there could be some similarities.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: yudi09 on October 22, 2024, 03:21:47 PM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
Congestion or heavy transactions like BRC20 tokens make the fees expensive than ever before.
If you look at the current Bitcoin transaction fee, it's 18 sat/vB for High Priority compared to a while ago, 18 sat/vB is still high because back then the transaction fee was below 10 sat/vB.
Up until now, the fees for moving Bitcoin have been very low and this is different from the others. Using Bitcoin is not complicated. It's fast and easy.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: justdimin on October 22, 2024, 06:14:07 PM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
Congestion or heavy transactions like BRC20 tokens make the fees expensive than ever before.
If you look at the current Bitcoin transaction fee, it's 18 sat/vB for High Priority compared to a while ago, 18 sat/vB is still high because back then the transaction fee was below 10 sat/vB.
Up until now, the fees for moving Bitcoin have been very low and this is different from the others. Using Bitcoin is not complicated. It's fast and easy.
This is why I hate all those BRC20 stuff, they are ruining bitcoin more than what it already is having trouble with. Not like we have enough transactions, we also have to deal with their load as well. I do not care what type of people likes them, we are not ready for it and it shouldn't exist at all.

I think we need to find a way to patch that up, and I am sure majority of the bitcoin world will accept this as as well. That is how we oved to segwit, we basically had a democratic voting, and it wasn't just 51% that won, it was 90% or something, and I bet we can do this again to ask if cardinals or whatever brc20 tokens should be closed up and we have no more brc20 available.

We really need to make bitcoin transactions cheaper and faster to make it adopted more around the world. Right now, it takes so much to pay for anything with bitcoin, so we use other stuff to make it cheaper and this causes us a lot of trouble and we need to avoid this.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: d5000 on October 22, 2024, 06:33:05 PM
This is why I hate all those BRC20 stuff, they are ruining bitcoin more than what it already is having trouble with.
BRC20 is almost dead, as you can see on the CryptoKoryo Dune.com (https://dune.com/cryptokoryo/runes) page (in the last days BRC-20 accounted for about 0,5% of all transactions). And that's a good thing, because BRC20 is the most inefficient thing (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5451905.msg62211946#msg62211946) that was created ever on the Bitcoin blockchain. I suspect it was created by a kid playing around with Ordinals.

Yesterday there seems to have been an increased Runes activity for some hours, at least when I checked this page earlier today 37% of the fees had been paid to Runes. But then I updated the graph and when we look at the whole day, only 7% of the fees were paid by Runes and they made up 8,8% of the transactions.

So your idea to "patch" Runes and Ordinals away (not new at all, of course) would actually not make a big difference anymore. In 2023 this was different, but the fad has ended.

We really need to make bitcoin transactions cheaper and faster to make it adopted more around the world.
Here I agree, but the solution for me are second layers. There are exciting developments these years, even if you don't like Lightning: Ark, BitVM as a new paradigm for bridges and sidechains, other sidechains like Nomic, better bridges to other chains like tBTC which could work also as sidechains (see also this thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5496743.0)) ...


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: AVE5 on October 22, 2024, 07:08:08 PM
then I'd assume the different is that we haven't gotten to the bull run yet so, let's watch out for when we finally get to the bull run if the past transaction fees and this current circle transaction fees would tally.
Hmm, not yet in a bull run? but we're close to the former ATH that has happened for this year and that was just this March. We're already on it but I guess people's expectation is superior nowadays of thinking more to come to the price as soon as possible. Everyone has to look at the chart and it doesn't have to be an analysis but just a recognition of how this year has been going so far. We're close to the end of this year and it has gotten a lot to the point that everyone wants more just like me.

It's true that much is expected to be accord the bull run. Maybe I'm ungrateful or a highily expectant that's why I'm not getting this current market trends to be the bull run. I take this current movement to be range-bound because the market price is still fluctuating. The last ATH was around $73,000 and the impressive high price that's being assumed to be the bull run according to others should be $68,00-69,000. Seeing the current baseline on 67,000 ain't so impressive to be a bull run.
Maybe not untill we break the current ATH would I say we're in the bull. Just my own thought though. I literally don't believe in analysis because we can always get it wrong not until it's proven.


I don't also expect a high transaction fees at this time because there's no congestion transactions and investors are not moved to sell their coins yet since we haven't broken the record or the current ATH yet.
Hoping for that to happen until the bull run ends. We can't be sure that transaction fees won't fluctuate, they will also fluctuate just like what we've seen a few months ago.

Definitely the transaction fees would always fluctuate which can always be determined by the volume of bitcoin users processing transactions also also as the market price keep to fluctuate.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Mahanton on October 22, 2024, 08:59:20 PM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
If you have been able to experience to those previous bull run or market cycle then i wont really be that making myself that too optimistic on whatever i would be seeing with these kind of details.
Come to think that TX fee isnt something that you could be able to distinguish on how this upcoming bull run would be different. I would really be rather saying that the current institutional funds flowing into the market
now would really be having that much more effect rather than on this matter but of course there's no way or no one would be able to tell on where it would be heading in speaking about peak prices.
The key on here is that you should really be that trying out to adapt or go with the flow on whatever the market will really be behaving into.

Transactions fee do always fluctuate and just like the people been saying above that it would really be basing up on how those transactions that keeps on piling up on the network.
There are moments or times that there would really be that a spam in the network Ex. ordinals on which this could make the fee that goes to the roof but eventually this condition
do resolves out in a week and it goes normal back again.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: AmoreJaz on October 22, 2024, 09:57:20 PM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
Congestion or heavy transactions like BRC20 tokens make the fees expensive than ever before.
If you look at the current Bitcoin transaction fee, it's 18 sat/vB for High Priority compared to a while ago, 18 sat/vB is still high because back then the transaction fee was below 10 sat/vB.
Up until now, the fees for moving Bitcoin have been very low and this is different from the others. Using Bitcoin is not complicated. It's fast and easy.

Just think of the fact that even if you use the tx fee for high priority, it is still very small as compared to the amount you will use if you will have cross-border payments using WU and depositing good amount of money. Now, if people who regularly send money to their relatives or family learned this route, for sure, they will appreciate this market. This is why for me, it is only a matter of time before noncrypto users uncover the true benefits of crypto payments when it comes to cross-border payments. Very minimal fee and the transaction speed is quite fast.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Rengga Jati on October 22, 2024, 10:56:44 PM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)).
The fees fluctuate, it is no really cheap anymore. It is already above 15 sat/vB. I think it is normal now. I guessed the fees was below 5 sat/vB when you made this post. However, so far the transaction fees is quite affordable.

As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher.
The market is in bullrun season already. Sure, we have red market in few months ago but it is reasonable that the market had some corrections.
It is true, Bitcoin price increased to $69,4k yesterday. Today, Bitcoin dropped to $66k and it turns to be around $67k now. It seems not easy to break the current ATH because it always fails to cross $70k.

But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
Each cycle may have a different thing. The current transaction fees isn't as high as in the last season, but it just leads people easily sending their Bitcoin into market. So, there is always a big supply in the market. This makes it difficult for the price to skyrocket. In the last season, the supply in the market is decreasing a lot because of the high transaction fees. In this condition, the price can skyrocket due to the raise of demand.




Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: BlockRebel on October 22, 2024, 11:00:21 PM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.

Yeah, it’s surprising how low the fees are this time, especially with the market heating up. Now it’s a lot smoother with more normal fees. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out as Bitcoin pushes past the ATH.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: JeffBrad12 on October 23, 2024, 12:47:14 AM
I think it's also due to the fact that great deal of people invests through ETF and exchanges, settling the price off-chain which helps to keep the tx costs of BTC at low.

moreover, aside from that, ordinal hasn't spammed BTC's blockchain as much as it was back then, so the BTC's blockchain is not getting tensed up with those ordinal memes spams.

but yeah, it's a great scene when seeing BTC price going up high and the blockchain didn't get clogged, the other blockchain such as ETH has come up with their own solution of scaling, which is L2 and BTC also has L2, I wonder if BTC's L2 also contribute to the fact that BTC's tx fee isn't too inflated.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: yudi09 on October 23, 2024, 12:29:53 PM
-snip-
This is why I hate all those BRC20 stuff, they are ruining bitcoin more than what it already is having trouble with. Not like we have enough transactions, we also have to deal with their load as well. I do not care what type of people likes them, we are not ready for it and it shouldn't exist at all.
Hate, I also blurted it out. But a matter of solution has been thought of.

As d5000 has said that the BRC20 is the most inefficient something ever made in the blockchain.
All activities are disturbed by it. People who need fast transactions must postpone to do let alone the number of transactions not in large quantities. For business people will be very disturbed by the burden of dense networks.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: CryptoBuds on October 23, 2024, 01:56:47 PM

Hate, I also blurted it out. But a matter of solution has been thought of.

As d5000 has said that the BRC20 is the most inefficient something ever made in the blockchain.
All activities are disturbed by it. People who need fast transactions must postpone to do let alone the number of transactions not in large quantities. For business people will be very disturbed by the burden of dense networks.


Many people hate BRC and Rune because they cause congestion and make their transactions more expensive, including me. But many people benefit from it so whether it's useless or not depends on who you are. If you were someone who profited from transaction fees, you wouldn't hate them as much as you do now.

Additionally, it also shows us the downside of bitcoin. Suppose in the future bitcoin becomes popular globally and is used by 8 billion people, what will happen to the bitcoin network and what will the transaction fees be? BRC and Rune have pointed out the flaws of bitcoin and we need a solution if we want to continue using bitcoin when it becomes more popular globally.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: YOSHIE on October 23, 2024, 02:13:45 PM
This bull run is different....
Maybe for me I don't want to be quick to respond to some speculation about the Bitcoin market, in fact if you look at the dominance of the market in the last few months there has been an increase, maybe this is due to investors' interest in Bitcoin.

Talking about signals for a Bull Run, a situation like this happened in November 2022 if I'm not mistaken, but it also cannot be separated from several factors and support for a potential bull run, as many investors are turning to digital assets, especially Bitcoin, Another factor is that the global economy has no clear direction and more large companies are looking for solutions to improve their economy in terms of digital currencies such as Bitcoin.

But whatever the current speculation, we still have to focus on other information that could cause a bull run in the future, I hope the best for everyone.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: TastyChillySauce00 on October 24, 2024, 12:29:38 AM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
I won't be too hasty in making conclusion, part of me don't really believe that we're truly in a bullrun yet, I mean, we're just a slightly higher than previous cycle's ATH that I don't think that in this current cycle we're already in a bullrun yet.
we will see how the fee will be when BTC at least going above $80k, picking up on the bullish trend again.

as of now, just retracements and sideways, personally I think BTC will truly be hitting its ATH maybe next year, but that just my shallow speculation.

but this low fee could also be contributed to the fact that some people might depict bitcoin heavily as just for investment so what they're doing is just keeping their BTC in cold storage, hardly using it for interaction.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: milewilda on October 25, 2024, 12:34:46 PM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
I won't be too hasty in making conclusion, part of me don't really believe that we're truly in a bullrun yet, I mean, we're just a slightly higher than previous cycle's ATH that I don't think that in this current cycle we're already in a bullrun yet.
we will see how the fee will be when BTC at least going above $80k, picking up on the bullish trend again.

as of now, just retracements and sideways, personally I think BTC will truly be hitting its ATH maybe next year, but that just my shallow speculation.

but this low fee could also be contributed to the fact that some people might depict bitcoin heavily as just for investment so what they're doing is just keeping their BTC in cold storage, hardly using it for interaction.
For those who do have that experience towards the market then they would really be that definitely be having kind of awareness on how the market behaves or how it moves. It would really be that too hasty in our part for us to have that kind of drawing up some conclusions on what the market do looks like or on how it would move. It cant be avoided sometimes that people will be making up some assumptions basing up on what happened in the past on which its not surprising at all. On the time or moment that you have been able to experience on how it does move or behave then you would be ending up realizing that it wont be that much ideal that you will be assuming on how it would be looking like on the upcoming bull run. This might be the same back in the past or would really be that totally different this time. If we do really tend to zoom out then
you will be able to point out or would really be saying that institutional funds are flowing now into this market on which we cant be able to deny that there might be some possibility of that manipulation on which its not
that something new anymore. This is why im not really that making myself that too optimistic on what would be the upcoming times or moments because it will really be that bringing out that kind of disappointment
on the time or moment that those expectation of yours didnt really happen.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: STT on October 25, 2024, 06:13:36 PM
Im still looking for the full bull run.  Its cows at pasture right now, grazing more then any special movement.  Especially if you zoom out, at best the cows have been running in circles for months :D

I was ready to be optimistic today, good run up but its selling off again.  Its only one day but still not a good friday close I guess, we'll see how NYC is in a couple hours.   I actually do better personally if we do properly reset as part of an extended run, I think its constructive also not to rush but some people must be frustrated already.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: potatotom on October 26, 2024, 11:49:58 AM
Yeah this sideways movement is kinda boring. either go up or down, but do something Bitcoin!!


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: lizarder on October 26, 2024, 04:09:57 PM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
As for today bitcoin is in a correction again and the price is currently around $66k from a $69k increase, I see a correction touching $65k and below for the next few days as it has happened before. Slowly there may be a time when we see the price break above and we are almost in the condition towards the next ATH but we need to see how bitcoin is doing at the end of the year. Hopefully there will be the best momentum at the end of this year before bitcoin hits its next ATH.

That is why it is important to check the mempool when you want to make a transaction because sometimes the level of transaction traffic can result in such large fees that small transactions made will be very disproportionate.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: EL MOHA on October 26, 2024, 04:36:54 PM
As for today bitcoin is in a correction again and the price is currently around $66k from a $69k increase, I see a correction touching $65k and below for the next few days as it has happened before. Slowly there may be a time when we see the price break above and we are almost in the condition towards the next ATH but we need to see how bitcoin is doing at the end of the year. Hopefully there will be the best momentum at the end of this year before bitcoin hits its next ATH.

That is why it is important to check the mempool when you want to make a transaction because sometimes the level of transaction traffic can result in such large fees that small transactions made will be very disproportionate.

Seriously we have been in a ranging trend since the all time high was achieved, with the way the economic situation of the world is I don’t think we will likely see any huge pump or even dump at this time because the holders are currently looking at next year for the bull run and are strongly holding while the buyers are just doing little DCA to accumulate, I think a economic recovery news like the one we say with rates lower or any hype news will be the beginning of an impulsive movement.

Yes it is always best to check the bitcoin memepool explorers to get an insight but seriously since the die down of ordinals and inscription like hypes the network has very less congested.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: LUCKMCFLY on October 26, 2024, 07:50:59 PM
This is a positive thing, I think that in the past the fact that transactions have been so expensive was a total problem, that avoided many things, and personally those types of things should be much better now, as far as we know the last ATH has been almost $73k, if this ATH reaches, let's say, about $150k to $200k then things are different, I think that there the rates would undoubtedly go up, but it would be a pleasure to trade with BTC at that point, of course it's just speculation, it may not happen.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Odusko on October 26, 2024, 09:10:33 PM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
The thing is that, ever since from time memorial, Bitcoin have been of the verge to creating a history that no shitcoins can ever create, sometimes the issues with high fees and network congestion is a plan attack on the Bitcoin network which causes congestions and there by triggering high fees, and majority of the time, the network only get busy when there is an event of price consistent in appropriate, and the government and agency should be Mark a as mistake so it can't stay off Bitcoin network and how they manage


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: JeffBrad12 on October 27, 2024, 02:03:20 AM
Yeah this sideways movement is kinda boring. either go up or down, but do something Bitcoin!!
It's kinda hard, the news about investigation toward Tether does put a lot of fear to the retailer traders as well as the whales ;D. I mean who are not afraid if the biggest market cap stablecoin have the potential to collapse and lose its depeg causing slight panic sell which can cancels out the bullish sentiment, I'd. be afraid too and have taken measure to exchange my USDT to USDC just in case, not gonna repeat the same UST mistake again ;D.

but I think USDT will still be fine, as long as they keep being transparent and consistently auditing their reserves.
the problem is, company never like to disclose any problem, just like how UST collapse back then, the Luna founder said the algorithmic stablecoin gonna be fine and won't lose its peg but it lost its peg anyway.

so I expect the sideway of BTC to still happen, though seeing price action, BTC should go up after breaking through the channel.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: dezoel on October 27, 2024, 09:09:01 AM
Hmm, not yet in a bull run? but we're close to the former ATH that has happened for this year and that was just this March. We're already on it but I guess people's expectation is superior nowadays of thinking more to come to the price as soon as possible. Everyone has to look at the chart and it doesn't have to be an analysis but just a recognition of how this year has been going so far. We're close to the end of this year and it has gotten a lot to the point that everyone wants more just like me.
BTC reaching a new ATH is an indication that we are in the bull run but it's just that it have lay low for a while. That being said, the bull is still here and we can actually feel its presence because BTC haven't plummeted yet. Other cryptos are also in trend. Not just nowadays but the people's expectations are always like that. Well, there is nothing wrong with that and that is better because thinking negatively can only make them quit early on this holding game.

If you are following this market, there is no need for you to check the charts because you already know how the cryptos are performing and yeah that a simple checking in the chart is not already considered as doing an analysis even though it involves it because analysis is more than that. Like what he said, high TX fees usually happens when people are in rage of something. So, don't worry when the bull run ends and the market returns to normal because we will definitely have a better/cheaper fees during those times.

About the bull run, yeah, we are in the season, only that it is not impressive yet. The ATH has been stuck since March, I don't think it is now that Bitcoin will hit it again, not to mention breaching it higher. It might take time, but it may happen during the US election week and subsequent months, as it has always helped with Bitcoin's rise.
A bull run is always impressive. I know the effect have subsided for a while but I'd say it was still impressive due to the fact it hasn't ended yet just like the other/previous bull runs we had. The Election is said to happen in November and many are positive about it due to their involvement in BTC but I think they only coincide with the month where we typically experience a pump. It was still great though because we might experience a super pump/bull this time.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Zanab247 on October 27, 2024, 12:23:58 PM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
I notice this low transaction fee when I sold my BTC few days ago, and i was very comfortable with the profits I made from BTC without paying a high fee like the way some sellers that is using some wallets are paying high fee in their transaction. I know very well that the gas fee of BTC don't use to remain in one place, some time, it may be high in the bull run while some time it may be low in the bull run which is what people are experiencing from BTC gas fee right now and it is causing hodlers to double up their profits.

Nice to see the price of BTC pumping higher, despite some other cryptocurrencies price are still dumping in the market which is a sign that BTC is good for hodling, because whenever you are hodling BTC in the bull season, there is a confident of making a big profit when the price push into your price expectation.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: lizarder on October 27, 2024, 04:01:17 PM
Seriously we have been in a ranging trend since the all time high was achieved, with the way the economic situation of the world is I don’t think we will likely see any huge pump or even dump at this time because the holders are currently looking at next year for the bull run and are strongly holding while the buyers are just doing little DCA to accumulate, I think a economic recovery news like the one we say with rates lower or any hype news will be the beginning of an impulsive movement.

Yes it is always best to check the bitcoin memepool explorers to get an insight but seriously since the die down of ordinals and inscription like hypes the network has very less congested.
The ability of price movement is difficult to predict and may not only depend on one situation like market sentiment or other events. I am optimistic that there will be a best moment at the end of the year before reaching the next ATH and that will be a big move to consider especially on the buying pattern that is done by each person. DCA may still be the best strategy and this can be done by anyone to increase the amount of ownership before bitcoin reaches the next ATH.

When we check then there is a picture when we want to make a transaction and that is important as an insight before doing so. I have made slightly larger transactions but the fee was very comparable and that was probably because the transaction traffic level was not so heavy at that time.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: God Of Thunder on October 28, 2024, 07:17:10 AM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.

I also checked the mempool now and it seems the fee is low as 2 sat/vb which is low compared to the recent times. The fee was too high during the BRC-20 token craze but I am glad that it becomes normal again. I have said many times already that I do not think it's a bull run already. We have been in pre-Bullrun for a while now.

A solid bull run will decrease Bitcoin dominance and altcoins will explode which did not happen. The alts now start to bleed every few weeks which is the opposite of a bull run. It is pretty much a bear market for the altcoins. But I believe we are not too far from the next bull run which may happen in 2025. I am holding some altcoins which may be worth 20% of my total holding right now.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Republikcoin.com on October 28, 2024, 09:01:46 AM
The ability of price movement is difficult to predict and may not only depend on one situation like market sentiment or other events. I am optimistic that there will be a best moment at the end of the year before reaching the next ATH and that will be a big move to consider especially on the buying pattern that is done by each person. DCA may still be the best strategy and this can be done by anyone to increase the amount of ownership before bitcoin reaches the next ATH.
Today I also saw the price of Bitcoin which has again moved to a price of $69K even though it has not reached that price and I am also still quite optimistic that at the end of this year Bitcoin could pass the price of $70K and make another ATH before the new year. Currently, the level of Bitcoin purchases in the market is still quite a lot and this could encourage a better price increase so that every Bitcoin holder will feel very happy. I also see that the current market conditions are no longer getting worse so it would not be wrong for everyone to expect a new ATH before the new year arrives.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Swordsoffreedom on October 28, 2024, 10:40:17 AM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.

I also checked the mempool now and it seems the fee is low as 2 sat/vb which is low compared to the recent times. The fee was too high during the BRC-20 token craze but I am glad that it becomes normal again. I have said many times already that I do not think it's a bull run already. We have been in pre-Bullrun for a while now.

A solid bull run will decrease Bitcoin dominance and altcoins will explode which did not happen. The alts now start to bleed every few weeks which is the opposite of a bull run. It is pretty much a bear market for the altcoins. But I believe we are not too far from the next bull run which may happen in 2025. I am holding some altcoins which may be worth 20% of my total holding right now.

I agree with you, I don't think we are in a bull market, it is very close to us if we go by history. Although bitcoin is still trading at $68k, the overall sentiment among investors is completely opposite to when bitcoin hit $68k in March. As I see it, the market situation is generally quite gloomy, people are not showing excitement and enthusiasm like we are in a bull market. Bull season has not yet begun, IMO.

Bitcoin dominance hasn't peaked yet, I think it could hit 62-64% before turning around and starting a real bull run as many expect. Or rather, we haven't had the altcoin season yet, when the prices of many altcoins increase from 100% to 500% per day, which is the real bull season that many people are talking about.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: bangjoe on October 28, 2024, 11:10:31 AM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
That shows that Bullrun has not yet come completely in the cycle this time, not as before when it reaches the price level of $ 60K is very busy on the network and makes congestion, my personal response, this is also part of a normal and slow Bitcoin growth, so what is It may happen to the network that is not heavy, but I am quite sure when Bitcoin at the $ 90K price level will be very busy returning and we will see expensive transaction costs, it is encouraged because of Fomo and also a very crowded market activity.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: As-Soon-As on October 28, 2024, 12:42:30 PM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.

It is most important to check Mempool during Bitcoin transactions only, because checking like this will save you a lot of transaction fees. We have to be most careful in Bitcoin transactions because most of the times people fall into the highest transaction risk and high fees due to ignorance. But I think it's best to go with Mempool for Bitcoin transactions and get an idea of transaction fees.



Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: lizarder on October 28, 2024, 04:01:11 PM
Today I also saw the price of Bitcoin which has again moved to a price of $69K even though it has not reached that price and I am also still quite optimistic that at the end of this year Bitcoin could pass the price of $70K and make another ATH before the new year. Currently, the level of Bitcoin purchases in the market is still quite a lot and this could encourage a better price increase so that every Bitcoin holder will feel very happy. I also see that the current market conditions are no longer getting worse so it would not be wrong for everyone to expect a new ATH before the new year arrives.
The level of purchases will push the price of bitcoin back to looking green in the market even though that is not the only reason as a trigger for the increase and this is the right momentum for someone who intends to make long-term investments. Recovery has occurred for the past few days after getting a correction and I see this as increasingly positive and especially for those who want to make a profit in the short term. We hope that by the end of the year bitcoin can reach a price of more than $70K so that the next ATH trigger will be even more profitable.

Whatever conditions are happening must be a momentum to make gradual purchases so that we can wait for the next ATH in a fairly profitable position with much larger bitcoin ownership. The way to accumulate is also important besides seeing the price continue to rise before the next ATH so that both can provide maximum profit.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: EarnOnVictor on October 28, 2024, 07:54:47 PM
About the bull run, yeah, we are in the season, only that it is not impressive yet. The ATH has been stuck since March, I don't think it is now that Bitcoin will hit it again, not to mention breaching it higher. It might take time, but it may happen during the US election week and subsequent months, as it has always helped with Bitcoin's rise.
A bull run is always impressive. I know the effect have subsided for a while but I'd say it was still impressive due to the fact it hasn't ended yet just like the other/previous bull runs we had. The Election is said to happen in November and many are positive about it due to their involvement in BTC but I think they only coincide with the month where we typically experience a pump. It was still great though because we might experience a super pump/bull this time.
I maintain that this bull run is not yet impressive, perhaps it might be impressive later due to many reasons which include the US election, but now, we can't call a market that has hit its ATH since March but is unable to reach it again let alone breaching it higher an impressive market, that's not cool. Satoshi planned the Bitcoin halving cycle well to coincide with the US election, and truly, I noticed with the past charts that the US election indeed helped Bitcoin to rise. Let's wait and see this time.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: BITCOIN4X on October 28, 2024, 08:21:57 PM
~Snip
The ability of price movement is difficult to predict and may not only depend on one situation like market sentiment or other events. I am optimistic that there will be a best moment at the end of the year before reaching the next ATH and that will be a big move to consider especially on the buying pattern that is done by each person. DCA may still be the best strategy and this can be done by anyone to increase the amount of ownership before bitcoin reaches the next ATH.

When we check then there is a picture when we want to make a transaction and that is important as an insight before doing so. I have made slightly larger transactions but the fee was very comparable and that was probably because the transaction traffic level was not so heavy at that time.
Before this month is even over, I think you should consider bitcoin could hit $70k again. Bitcoin is not too far away from the previous ATH at this time, of course you need to look at the price now because we are very close. Today bitcoin experienced a price jump of several percent, $69.6k was the highest price on 1 Hour TF, meanwhile $70k seemed like within reach.

Many people's optimism about a new ATH this year may have some basis, but prices are always difficult to predict. The US election could possibly have a negative or positive impact on the crypto industry, that's because there are two different candidates, one of which doesn't really support this industry. Yes, Kamala Haris is what I mean.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Ojima-ojo on October 28, 2024, 08:49:49 PM

I maintain that this bull run is not yet impressive, perhaps it might be impressive later due to many reasons which include the US election, but now, we can't call a market that has hit its ATH since March but is unable to reach it again let alone breaching it higher an impressive market, that's not cool. Satoshi planned the Bitcoin halving cycle well to coincide with the US election, and truly, I noticed with the past charts that the US election indeed helped Bitcoin to rise. Let's wait and see this time.
We are not in a bull market yet, even though the price of Bitcoin is gradually climbing up to the last Bitcoin all time high of 75-76k this is somewhat a correction stage fro Bitcoin and we shouldn't consider this as a market rise yet, when we begin to see Bitcoin exceeding it last all time high and the transaction fees still remains this stable, then we can say that we are far from high fees worries, and that the memopol congestion is over and the attack have been put to rest.


But those network spammers have one habit of returning to the spamming activities when the price touch an all time high and want to break a head to keep the trends upward, by then the congestion will become a blocking bridge a. D lots of transactions will be forced to get cancelled of users seeking alternative to Bitcoin at that point.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: God Of Thunder on October 29, 2024, 07:47:40 AM
Bitcoin dominance hasn't peaked yet, I think it could hit 62-64% before turning around and starting a real bull run as many expect.
But in that case, I feel like altcoins will start to bleed if Bitcoin dominance increases a lot. But if Bitcoin dominance increases and the price goes up as well, then altcoins won't pump. But if Bitcoin dominance decreases, but the price goes up, then we are most likely to see a massive bull run. For now, Bitcoin goes up for a couple of days and then takes a correction for two days which actually dumps the entire altcoin market. Bitcoin has been accumulating for four to five weeks, but most altcoins dumped up to 100% in the recent couple of weeks.



Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: justdimin on October 29, 2024, 09:31:52 AM
The level of purchases will push the price of bitcoin back to looking green in the market even though that is not the only reason as a trigger for the increase and this is the right momentum for someone who intends to make long-term investments. Recovery has occurred for the past few days after getting a correction and I see this as increasingly positive and especially for those who want to make a profit in the short term. We hope that by the end of the year bitcoin can reach a price of more than $70K so that the next ATH trigger will be even more profitable.

Whatever conditions are happening must be a momentum to make gradual purchases so that we can wait for the next ATH in a fairly profitable position with much larger bitcoin ownership. The way to accumulate is also important besides seeing the price continue to rise before the next ATH so that both can provide maximum profit.
I mean we are reaching 70k once again, that should definitely be great target that we can enjoy for a while, we should not be worried about it and be happy that we are getting this. of course it is not going to be easy and we are going to take a time to get there, but it will eventually happen and we will not face any issues at all.

This is going to be a hard situation to handle there is no doubt about that, and we are going to see some problems while going higher, but we are going to see the price going up without a doubt. I believe we can consider how this could change, we need to consider how we could skyrocket with the bull run and not only bitcoin will go up but there will be plenty of altcoins that will go up with it.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: lizarder on October 29, 2024, 01:36:13 PM
Before this month is even over, I think you should consider bitcoin could hit $70k again. Bitcoin is not too far away from the previous ATH at this time, of course you need to look at the price now because we are very close. Today bitcoin experienced a price jump of several percent, $69.6k was the highest price on 1 Hour TF, meanwhile $70k seemed like within reach.

Many people's optimism about a new ATH this year may have some basis, but prices are always difficult to predict. The US election could possibly have a negative or positive impact on the crypto industry, that's because there are two different candidates, one of which doesn't really support this industry. Yes, Kamala Haris is what I mean.
Price prediction is not easy because the market can change so quickly and today bitcoin reached the price as you said and it seems that we will see market conditions getting better for the next few days. There are always events that make bitcoin prices go up and down, now the US election can trigger a price movement up or down. But I see a positive direction for bitcoin in the next few months although sometimes we will also see a correction again.

Kamala Harris' victory could make bitcoin corrected because she does not support bitcoin's steps but the impact will be very positive when Trump wins the contest. There is always something that happens even though the level of accuracy is not guaranteed to happen for sure and that's how the market conditions work.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Swordsoffreedom on October 31, 2024, 09:33:41 AM
Bitcoin dominance hasn't peaked yet, I think it could hit 62-64% before turning around and starting a real bull run as many expect.
But in that case, I feel like altcoins will start to bleed if Bitcoin dominance increases a lot. But if Bitcoin dominance increases and the price goes up as well, then altcoins won't pump. But if Bitcoin dominance decreases, but the price goes up, then we are most likely to see a massive bull run. For now, Bitcoin goes up for a couple of days and then takes a correction for two days which actually dumps the entire altcoin market. Bitcoin has been accumulating for four to five weeks, but most altcoins dumped up to 100% in the recent couple of weeks.



If bitcoin dominance increases and altcoins continue to fall then it is inevitable but I think it won't be too serious because as you said altcoins have fallen too much. If you look back at history, you will see that bitcoin dominance in previous cycles would reach 7x before dropping to create a strong bull market. But with so many altcoins coming out in this cycle, bitcoin dominance has dropped significantly so I think 62-64% would be the most reasonable level.

BTC.D broke above 60% yesterday and I believe it will soon continue to rise before falling, meaning we are very close to the bull season we are expecting. We have held out so far, there is no reason to panic at this point no matter what happens.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: God Of Thunder on November 01, 2024, 09:09:19 AM
BTC.D broke above 60% yesterday and I believe it will soon continue to rise before falling, meaning we are very close to the bull season we are expecting. We have held out so far, there is no reason to panic at this point no matter what happens.

Even veteran members started to Panic with their Altcoins holdings. Did you notice what has been happening in the last few weeks? Bitcoin accumulating every week, but the altcoins going down and down. When Bitcoin pumps 5%, altcoins also pump 3-4%, but when Bitcoin takes a 1% correction, Altcoins lose 5-10% at the same time. Which caused major damage in the Altcoins market.

People started to do DCA with their altcoins as well hoping it would be the lowest low. But the market keeps dumping and there is no other way to recover that lose except to continue doing DCA. But not everyone has enough fund to continue doing DCA until the bull run starts.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Yaunfitda on November 01, 2024, 10:14:53 AM
Bitcoin dominance hasn't peaked yet, I think it could hit 62-64% before turning around and starting a real bull run as many expect.
But in that case, I feel like altcoins will start to bleed if Bitcoin dominance increases a lot. But if Bitcoin dominance increases and the price goes up as well, then altcoins won't pump. But if Bitcoin dominance decreases, but the price goes up, then we are most likely to see a massive bull run. For now, Bitcoin goes up for a couple of days and then takes a correction for two days which actually dumps the entire altcoin market. Bitcoin has been accumulating for four to five weeks, but most altcoins dumped up to 100% in the recent couple of weeks.
I don't know if Bitcoin dominance is a good gauge though to see how big Bitcoin will be, we have seen Bitcoin like having just 50% dominance but still pushing for new all time high. Plus, some altcoins might be artificially inflating their prices, so it's really hard to look at this data and come up with the conclusion.

So with that, let Bitcoin do it's thing, going for a new all time high, maybe it will trickle some to altcoins, so that is good enough. But if not, then so be it, we know that there are still relationship between the two. But I think Bitcoin can ran it's course alone and most likely if the FOMO will continue, we might see a new all time high this month of November.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Oshio-man on November 01, 2024, 11:05:06 AM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
I think each bull run is different but comes with a common goal, that is to reward us after long term hodling and trading while waiting for the perfect timing to sell. So whether it takes so long or too quick to witness bull run in the market, and the transaction fees might vary, but one thing is certain, if we have the patience and persistency to wait for its perfect timing, then we will all benefit once bull run has finally comes.
You're right, each bull season give people different incomes because people experienced huge income in this year bull and the transaction fee involved was very low, compared last season transaction fee that was very high, and the price of bitcoin didn't hit $70k in the last bull but it was the highest price people experienced from bitcoin before it hit higher this year 2024. To wait for the real time, is the challenge to some people in this bitcoin holding because there is no how you will endure for bull season to reach the highest for you not to earn surplus incom that will create more opportunity for you to buy more bitcoin in the bear season.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Pandu Geddon on November 01, 2024, 11:46:56 AM
I don't know if Bitcoin dominance is a good gauge though to see how big Bitcoin will be, we have seen Bitcoin like having just 50% dominance but still pushing for new all time high. Plus, some altcoins might be artificially inflating their prices, so it's really hard to look at this data and come up with the conclusion.

So with that, let Bitcoin do it's thing, going for a new all time high, maybe it will trickle some to altcoins, so that is good enough. But if not, then so be it, we know that there are still relationship between the two. But I think Bitcoin can ran it's course alone and most likely if the FOMO will continue, we might see a new all time high this month of November.

Hopefully, it can be achieved, even if not this month, there is great hope that if the bull momentum persists we will move in a better direction until early next year. October is over and the movement is also quite good even though everyone had hoped for a high pump to occur last month and we could enjoy it until the end of this year.
we never know whether the bull run will continue until the end of the year or even early next year or not. but Bitcoin is currently quite strong and it will not be easy to change direction at this time. let's see if this month will be better than October or not. this could be a long momentum for Bitcoin which is quite strong in the current price range.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: GeorgeJohn on November 01, 2024, 02:24:21 PM
I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool (https://mempool.space/)). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.
I don't know if I will say that is bullrun that makes the congestion to occurs, do you know that this transaction congestion we experienced this time, we have not experienced it last three years or four years ago, I think that why we do experienced these kind of congestion in transaction is because of numbers of transaction at moment that needs to be processed, last two weeks they was a congestion in which I seek for the assistance of accelerator to boost the transaction confirmation, so it's not the bullrun that caused congestion in transaction from my perspective, but the demands or gravity of the unprocessed transaction will lead to congestion, I will like other people to throw more light on what that causes delay of confirmation of transaction in blockchain technology.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: GigaBit on November 01, 2024, 03:09:13 PM
About the bull run, yeah, we are in the season, only that it is not impressive yet. The ATH has been stuck since March, I don't think it is now that Bitcoin will hit it again, not to mention breaching it higher. It might take time, but it may happen during the US election week and subsequent months, as it has always helped with Bitcoin's rise.
A bull run is always impressive. I know the effect have subsided for a while but I'd say it was still impressive due to the fact it hasn't ended yet just like the other/previous bull runs we had. The Election is said to happen in November and many are positive about it due to their involvement in BTC but I think they only coincide with the month where we typically experience a pump. It was still great though because we might experience a super pump/bull this time.
I maintain that this bull run is not yet impressive, perhaps it might be impressive later due to many reasons which include the US election, but now, we can't call a market that has hit its ATH since March but is unable to reach it again let alone breaching it higher an impressive market, that's not cool. Satoshi planned the Bitcoin halving cycle well to coincide with the US election, and truly, I noticed with the past charts that the US election indeed helped Bitcoin to rise. Let's wait and see this time.
It appears that the current bull run has not yet taken off as expected. Bitcoin price has yet to surpass the high it reached last March. US elections make a significant contribution to Bitcoin's bull run every time. But it seems almost impossible to get that bull market in Bitcoin before the election. The Bitcoin halving and the results of the election combined will definitely add to the market's high energy.

Although October did not reach all-time highs for Bitcoin, it gave a green signal. In a short period of time, Bitcoin rose to almost the same level as the previous all time high. Bitcoin price will not change much in the month of November especially in this first week. Although many believe that we may be able to over come previous all time high this year, it is not certain. I deserve Bitcoin's true bull run will slowly begin after the US election.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: God Of Thunder on November 02, 2024, 05:30:15 AM
I don't know if Bitcoin dominance is a good gauge though to see how big Bitcoin will be, we have seen Bitcoin like having just 50% dominance but still pushing for new all time high. Plus, some altcoins might be artificially inflating their prices, so it's really hard to look at this data and come up with the conclusion.


Bitcoin dominance must be low to have a bull run. More Bitcoin dominance means Bitcoin is pumping and Altcoins are losing value. But if Bitcoin pumps in value but loses its dominance, that is where Bull Run begins. Altcoins have been bleeding since every correction and it will continue to happen if Bitcoin's dominance continues to increase. The current Bitcoin dominance is 59% which is still too high.

Once altcoins start to pump, Bitcoin dominance goes lower. If we can reach 40% Bitcoin dominance without losing its value, then we will see a pick bull run. For now, the investors are waiting for the US election result. It seems like Investors have some confidence in Trump. Let's see what happens.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: $weetne$$ on November 02, 2024, 06:52:21 AM
Although October did not reach all-time highs for Bitcoin, it gave a green signal. In a short period of time, Bitcoin rose to almost the same level as the previous all time high. Bitcoin price will not change much in the month of November especially in this first week. Although many believe that we may be able to over come previous all time high this year, it is not certain. I deserve Bitcoin's true bull run will slowly begin after the US election.

October did not live up to expectations and there could be reasons why this did not happen, we expected too much from the market meanwhile there was no positive news that should make the price of Bitcoin to rise. Everybody was expecting the market to be bullish but that did not happen although it is now November that is looking very bullish and Bitcoin price has being doing so well. The reason for this is because the results of the presidential election is now looking to go towards former president Donald Trump and he is the Bitcoin community pick since he is saying positive things toward Bitcoin and people are hoping he would not be as harsh as Biden and Kamala tenure was towards Bitcoin. The bull run is still going to be loud and alot of us will make profits therefore we should not give up yet.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: EarnOnVictor on November 02, 2024, 07:11:53 AM
It appears that the current bull run has not yet taken off as expected. Bitcoin price has yet to surpass the high it reached last March. US elections make a significant contribution to Bitcoin's bull run every time. But it seems almost impossible to get that bull market in Bitcoin before the election. The Bitcoin halving and the results of the election combined will definitely add to the market's high energy.
Something must help Bitcoin to rise and in the past histories, I discovered that the US election is one of them. But my fear now is that things are changing in the world of Bitcoin, especially this time that the price is so high and the market capitalization is nearing $1.5T, it takes more determined liquidity pumping for the asset to carry such a heavy load. Again, global economic woes and uncertainty will always affect the price of Bitcoin even as it is struggling to garner more adoption this time.

Regardless, March's ATH (473,850) remains the most important level, a breach above it may activate a long-term bullish power that will increase its upward volatility.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Republikcoin.com on November 02, 2024, 08:12:43 AM
Price prediction is not easy because the market can change so quickly and today bitcoin reached the price as you said and it seems that we will see market conditions getting better for the next few days. There are always events that make bitcoin prices go up and down, now the US election can trigger a price movement up or down. But I see a positive direction for bitcoin in the next few months although sometimes we will also see a correction again.
The price correction experienced by Bitcoin in the last two days was not that big and the price of Bitcoin itself is still between the range of $69K to $70K which is still quite close to the previous ATH level this year. So I still hope there is a better trigger to continue to boost the price of Bitcoin this November so that we can all see a new ATH again before the new year arrives. In addition, I also still see other triggers for the price of Bitcoin because the trigger through the election that will take place in the US may not be too big for Bitcoin at the end of this year.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: fuguebtc on November 02, 2024, 09:38:21 AM
It appears that the current bull run has not yet taken off as expected. Bitcoin price has yet to surpass the high it reached last March. US elections make a significant contribution to Bitcoin's bull run every time. But it seems almost impossible to get that bull market in Bitcoin before the election. The Bitcoin halving and the results of the election combined will definitely add to the market's high energy.
Something must help Bitcoin to rise and in the past histories, I discovered that the US election is one of them. But my fear now is that things are changing in the world of Bitcoin, especially this time that the price is so high and the market capitalization is nearing $1.5T, it takes more determined liquidity pumping for the asset to carry such a heavy load. Again, global economic woes and uncertainty will always affect the price of Bitcoin even as it is struggling to garner more adoption this time.

The larger the capitalization, the slower the growth rate will be because we need more money to do that. I think so too but it seems people don't pay attention to this, most people just like to look at bitcoin price and supply to make predictions, but they forget that market capitalization is also an equally important factor that we need to pay attention to.


For bitcoin to rise in price ,  all we need is a large amount of money pouring into the market, but if the economy remains unstable, inflation remains high, and people still struggle with daily life. Where will we get the money to put into the market? Bitcoin price always increases after every US election but this time is different because we have inflation, war...
I don't doubt the bull season ,  I still believe it will come but it may be delayed for a while because the current economic situation is not very good .


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: asriloni on November 02, 2024, 09:58:48 AM
Although October did not reach all-time highs for Bitcoin, it gave a green signal. In a short period of time, Bitcoin rose to almost the same level as the previous all time high. Bitcoin price will not change much in the month of November especially in this first week. Although many believe that we may be able to over come previous all time high this year, it is not certain. I deserve Bitcoin's true bull run will slowly begin after the US election.

October did not live up to expectations and there could be reasons why this did not happen, we expected too much from the market meanwhile there was no positive news that should make the price of Bitcoin to rise. Everybody was expecting the market to be bullish but that did not happen although it is now November that is looking very bullish and Bitcoin price has being doing so well. The reason for this is because the results of the presidential election is now looking to go towards former president Donald Trump and he is the Bitcoin community pick since he is saying positive things toward Bitcoin and people are hoping he would not be as harsh as Biden and Kamala tenure was towards Bitcoin. The bull run is still going to be loud and alot of us will make profits therefore we should not give up yet.

https://imgvb.com/images/2024/11/02/2af149994082cea63aeeca4b54143558.png

Many people follow the bitcoin performance in the chart above. They forget that many factors affect its price. Also, more institutional investors are getting even more involved in crypto. It means that bitcoin's price is driven by macro and micro trends. These trends are also impacting institutional investors. So, bitcoin's price is not just based on speculation.

It's common to expect a quick bullish trend. It's caused by most of us are crypto holders and want our stashes to grow. But, remember, you can't always expect Bitcoin to rise. The bad news, like the war, can drive Bitcoin down at any time. And, elections won't always drive up its price.

It's very wise not to centralize your focus on the price of bitcoin.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: lizarder on November 05, 2024, 01:43:03 PM
The price correction experienced by Bitcoin in the last two days was not that big and the price of Bitcoin itself is still between the range of $69K to $70K which is still quite close to the previous ATH level this year. So I still hope there is a better trigger to continue to boost the price of Bitcoin this November so that we can all see a new ATH again before the new year arrives. In addition, I also still see other triggers for the price of Bitcoin because the trigger through the election that will take place in the US may not be too big for Bitcoin at the end of this year.
That's right and now Bitcoin is getting a moment of increase again after a small correction previously and maybe this is related to the US presidential election which is currently being widely discussed regarding the percentage of victory of the two competing candidates. If you look at the movement of the Bitcoin price in November, I am a little optimistic that when there is a correction, it might get a moment of recovery again and it won't last long for the process that occurs.

To ensure that the movement of bitcoin can be greener this month, we can wait for who will win the US election, although that is not the only factor that can be relied on, but I am sure that in the future the price of bitcoin will continue to be in the range of $ 67K to $ 70K.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: LUCKMCFLY on November 10, 2024, 01:38:48 AM


Many people follow the bitcoin performance in the chart above. They forget that many factors affect its price. Also, more institutional investors are getting even more involved in crypto. It means that bitcoin's price is driven by macro and micro trends. These trends are also impacting institutional investors. So, bitcoin's price is not just based on speculation.



It's that if you have to look back at what has happened in order to visualize what is coming, when I see that things are like this, you can intuit that when we are generating more interest in bitcoin and new investors enter, the price obviously grows, but if we look back we can find a type of behavior that can be repeated, in fact it is the fundamental principle to be able to make predictions in a market , because starting to invent "I think that .." that is losing totally , well I do look back a lot to see what can happen.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Sanitough on November 11, 2024, 04:21:28 AM
And right now, transaction fees are still low, even with Bitcoin reaching another all-time high -- currently trading at the $81k level. If the network stays congestion-free, this is great news. Do you think institutional investors might be the reason for this bull run, since we’re not seeing the usual network congestion like in the past?

for reference. https://mempool.space/
Quote
No Priority 2 sat/vB $0.23
Low Priority 3 sat/vB $0.34
Medium Priority 3 sat/vB $0.34
High Priority 3 sat/vB $0.34


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: God Of Thunder on November 11, 2024, 04:30:10 AM
And right now, transaction fees are still low, even with Bitcoin reaching another all-time high -- currently trading at the $81k level. If the network stays congestion-free, this is great news. Do you think institutional investors might be the reason for this bull run, since we’re not seeing the usual network congestion like in the past?

There could be some possible reasons for this. Now, people can invest in Bitcoin without even doing on-chain transactions. Investors buying Bitcoin through ETF companies will probably be unable to move their funds. If investors cannot move their funds, there are no on-chain transactions. More on-chain transactions cause network congestion. However, the network will stay as usual if there are not many on-chain transactions.

Another possibility is that people can buy their Bitcoin in centralized exchanges and not withdraw their funds to their custodial wallet. They probably keep their Bitcoin in a centralized exchange account, which could be another reason for fewer on-chain transactions.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Republikcoin.com on November 11, 2024, 06:19:05 AM
That's right and now Bitcoin is getting a moment of increase again after a small correction previously and maybe this is related to the US presidential election which is currently being widely discussed regarding the percentage of victory of the two competing candidates. If you look at the movement of the Bitcoin price in November, I am a little optimistic that when there is a correction, it might get a moment of recovery again and it won't last long for the process that occurs.
The correction has not occurred until today because Bitcoin is still flying until it has passed the price of $80K and even almost touched the price of $82K recently. And I think this is the moment where Bitcoin continues to show a fairly good and positive trend in the eyes of everyone so that investors who still hold Bitcoin will feel a very extraordinary impact and this can also give birth to more new investors in Bitcoin. In addition, traders are also quite active at this time because they see market conditions that continue to improve until now.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Huliya on November 11, 2024, 09:31:45 AM
The price of Bitcoin has increased recently, and factors such as the possible outcome of the US presidential election, investor sentiment, and market volatility can affect it.  It is often seen that major political events also create hope and doubt among investors, causing price fluctuations.

If we look at the history of Bitcoin, there is always a trend in the market cycle—big movements followed by small corrections and then rebounds.  A correction was likely after reaching $80K or so, but in the absence of that, Bitcoin still maintained its momentum.  If this trend continues in the long term and rises without a major correction, new investors may be attracted.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Jawhead999 on November 11, 2024, 10:02:58 AM
The daily volume Bitcoin ETF didn't went higher than March, although it's rise compared to previous months. This mean a lot people buy Bitcoin in centralized exchange, not the ETF version.

The correction has not occurred until today because Bitcoin is still flying until it has passed the price of $80K and even almost touched the price of $82K recently. And I think this is the moment where Bitcoin continues to show a fairly good and positive trend in the eyes of everyone so that investors who still hold Bitcoin will feel a very extraordinary impact and this can also give birth to more new investors in Bitcoin. In addition, traders are also quite active at this time because they see market conditions that continue to improve until now.
In bullish market, being an investor is better than a trader because if the price keep rising, the trader will able to maximize the profit, instead investor will accumulate the profit until they sell it at the peak. During this time, most people looks smarter because they're correct predicting Bitcoin market will go up, while actually without you predict, the market will go up on it's own.


Title: Re: This bull run is different...
Post by: Awaklara on November 11, 2024, 10:20:35 AM
If this trend continues in the long term and rises without a major correction, new investors may be attracted.
new investors are interested in the already high increase, of course, they will be quite hesitant to enter with the current market situation. those who know the Bitcoin market will definitely wait for the price to correct deeper to enter. and the current situation may only be a small correction that makes the bitcoin move sideways.
we do expect Bitcoin to experience growth of more than $ 100k. but in an increasing situation like this which may increase in a short time, it is actually not suitable to start investing. except for those who are planning short-term profits, it can be done but still have to be careful with market conditions.