Bitcoin Forum

Hey everyone,

For some days, I have been meaning to pose this question here, Have you ever thought about what might happen to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies once supercomputers become mainstream?

As by 2040, the computational power going to obsolete the current machines, How are quantum computers going to affect the crypto, especially bitcoin and how we secure, scale, and even mine crypto?

Will Bitcoin adapt to such computational power, or could supercomputers make existing blockchain security obsolete?
What about mining, will supercomputers centralize it and put power into the hands of a few?

Curious to hear what you think whats going to happen in 2040, will bitcoin survive or the bubble we are hearing for few years will burst?

We have had this discussion a lot of times already, before super computers become a threat to BTC, we would have moved to an algorithm that is resistant to it. The development of quantum computers is a gradual process that will take a lot of years, it is not like we would wake up one morning and QC is set to break BTC, this gives the network ample time to develop a resistant algorithm.

However, take note that if QC is ever a threat to BTC's SHA-256 algorithm, then the threat does not rest on only BTC, but on a lot of industries, and BTC may even be of lower interest for attackers.

quantum computers are great at solving(dumbed down for simplicity) 4D puzzles but not so much efficiency gain on standard binary 2D puzzles
so while some 4D puzzles are near impossible for 2D computers, quantum can handle them better.. however the opposite way round trying to get a quantum pc to do a 4D solution that also applies to a 2D method loses its efficiency because the solution needs to be understood by normal binary computing

also ASICS even just one is the equivalent of 200million normal pc's, so if there are 2million asics, thats the equivalent of 400trillion binary pc's making the blockhash, which a QC computer still wont compete against

Super computers, quantum computers as threats to Bitcoin security is a long debate but I am not tech guys, my thinking is simple like this. Technologies are created by human and if they can create super computers, quantum computers, they are able to create other things to provide better security against these threats of security.

Like some decades ago, computational power was very smaller than in 2024, and technologies for security have been developing considerably over time too.

I believe in current security of Bitcoin blockchain as well as capability of Bitcoin developers to enhance its blockchain security against such threats in future.

Quantum computers and Bitcoin (2012) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=133425.0)
I don't believe Quantum Computing will ever threaten Bitcoin (2019) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5157696.0)

If I remember correctly, since the early days of entering the market, I have heard rumors about quantum computers but so far, I have not seen any threat from it to bitcoin or the crypto industry. It's all just conspiracy theories, hypotheses, rumors, nothing to worry about.

In the future, if quantum computers can develop and reach that level, perhaps bitcoin developers will also find a solution to upgrade bitcoin to adapt to everything. Quantum computing technology is evolving but bitcoin and the crypto industry are not standing still, everything is still being developed so I don't think they will pose a threat to the crypto industry.
But in all fairness, the future is unpredictable so depending on the situation, we should have a specific response plan.

lets see summer of 2012 the network was

21 th

fall of 2024

the network is

650,000,000th

so in 12 years hashrate is 30,000,000 bigger and solving blocks are a bitch.

i don’t worry about 16 years from now computers are not going to catch up any time soon.

the bigger issue is rewards get to small and miners quit mining the coin.

in 2040 we will had 4 more 1/2ings

this means 3.125 reward drops to under 0.2 btc

meaning btc needs to be worth 1 million and the difficulty along with asics and hashrates need to move exactly correct.

to maintain it all. this problem will be very real in 2040 much bigger fear about that then a smart computer magically solving blocks.

If it could crack the Bitcoin network and break its algorithms, that would be a huge threat. But if there’s no problem there, I think Bitcoin will stay just as secure as it is now. The big thing to look at is mining. Traditional mining might get outpaced once quantum computers become available because many miners would likely switch to quantum mining as it solves cryptographic puzzles much faster. This would push smaller miners out of the game, making the mining process more centralized, controlled by those with enough money to use quantum computers.

After all, as it was said, if it were - cracked - BTC wouldn't be first on the list to be harmed or things along the lines of it, and, probably, the pace at which it all goes wouldn't be as fast as to not come up with the solution in time.

Bitcoin and super-computers are a complex and dynamic topic, but the way it's unfolding seems likely to affect the future of cryptocurrency and the security of blockchain technology.

Super-Computers and Quantum-Computers Will Threaten Bitcoin Security. It's been heard for a long time now but I'm not surprised because we can see and know how much technology is progressing and when quantum-computers are released we will see who Bitcoin is. Different types of technologies will come to protect against threats. Because the quantum-computer will not happen overnight, it will take a lot of time to be released and when it is released, there will be something out there to protect BTC, so there is nothing to fear about it.

Why should we care about what will happen in 2040? We still have plenty of time.
If Bitcoin cannot survive the future quantum computing revolution, then I will most likely leave the crypto world. We shouldn't be so tied to BTC or any other cryptocurrency. At the end of the day, all that matters is our own personal wealth. If Bitcoin can help us grow our wealth, we will stick to BTC. If Bitcoin becomes obsolete, we will dump it and find another asset that will help us grow our wealth. Being obsessed with a certain financial asset or cryptocurrency is simply stupid. I don't want Bitcoin to become an investment cult, just like the Gamestop stocks or the other company(the company name was BBB,if I remember correctly), that had investors, who were obsessed with buying stocks.

Quantum computers can pose a serious threat to Bitcoin, in particular, to its cryptographic security, for instance, breaking with Shor's algorithm that may expose private keys from public Bitcoin addresses. But the crypto world is already developing quantum resistant encryption techniques with which to protect Bitcoin and other blockchains. While the current security of Bitcoin, such as the SHA256 hash function is somewhat resistant to quantum attacks, further upgrades may well be required to keep up with the development in quantum technologies.

Other concerns include how supercomputers could centralize mining in those entities that have access to such technology and may, therefore, undermine Bitcoin's decentralized architecture. With such prospects in the air, there are reports of developers considering countermeasures, from hard forks to quantum resistant algorithms to even a consensus algorithm change to PoS, said to be more resistant to quantum attacks than PoW is. It means that the crypto ecosystem would, by 2040, have adapted to the fact that there is most definitely going to be an improved structure of security or new framework coexisting with quantum advancements rather than a total collapse.

Time is the greatest protector of them all.
I do think that the solution will be ready when the time comes.
Hopefully, at least  ;D The crypto space depends on it.

Don't place hope on another technology battling another.
And besides would the government allow the releases of Quantum computers to the public well knowing that it could pose a threat to their security more.
Well they can use it themselves for an attack on the blockchain
Success is probable but lean more towards failure but it could be used to crack wallets especially for individuals who use same address.

It sounds harsh but what you say is true.

After all, our ultimate goal here is to improve our finances, to find wealth, nothing more, nothing less. If there is anything we should care about, it is our lives and our loved ones. Other things should be seen as tools that serve us and if they no longer have value to us then there is no reason to keep them. Furthermore, worshipping or venerating an inanimate object will not bring us any benefits, there is no reason to do such a meaningless thing.

It cannot be said that we are completely unconcerned about the future of bitcoin because its future will also affect our future. But 2040 is still too far away to think about. I even believe that if bitcoin doesn't bring wealth to people here in the next 10 years, no one will care about it, let alone they care about it in 2040 or 2140.

I would say that some put BTC as an invention and the tool for decentralization of some processes first and foremost, not as a tool of investment, however, as time moves on, more and more people consider it only for such reason - to get money out of it eventually. It's not seen to be learned and innovated upon.
I do understand where this belief comes from, however, I do not see it happening  ;D

To be honest, I don't think we will have supercomputers by 2040. There's been a lot of progress over the last few decades with computers, but the progress has been slowing down. To have proper quantum computers, I think we're at a point where more scientific research and some progress in understanding of quantum physics is required to make it work. So I believe Bitcoin is safe and will be safe for a while, but if something does happen, I think blockchain can adapt and cryptos can still thrive.

We can only hope that the blockchain will be able to adapt and thrive even with such machines in place.
I think the crypto space will be able to do so  ;D Together.

I was interested on this topic so I watch this youtube vid.

 The Race to Harness Quantum Computing's Mind-Bending Power | The Future With Hannah Fry (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_gJp2uAjO0)

After watching that video, I’m convinced that this is the future. The US is pouring big money into it, but according to the video, China’s way ahead, tripling the investment of the US in this field. One thing I remember is that they said it’ll uncover secrets of the world and shake up different areas, especially in research, since quantum computers could fast-track analysis to help researchers hit their goals.

Now, if we look at this in relation to the crypto network, especially Bitcoin, it could make mining easier and more efficient, which would be a big plus for miners. They’d probably shift to this new tech since no one wants to be outdated, and staying ahead means higher profits.

When it comes to the idea of "Bitcoin VS Supercomputers in 2040," it’s not really a battle. Bitcoin would likely still be around as long as the algorithm isn’t changed by quantum computing; otherwise, this multi-billion-dollar market could take a serious hit.

Im also advocate that if QC can decrypt the SHA 256, it can also fortify not even AI tech can break it at that point. Things are moving so fast in this era that this technology has to improve a lot to avoid becoming obsolete at any time. Even gas fees are going to obsolete at that time so many crypto's that are depending on it might have to think otherwise.

While I do agree the super computer stuff will happen in the future, what people are missing out here is that we could literally just make this work for our for as well, we just need to make sure we are dealing with better bitcoin encryption that's it. Literally just a single code change, we just make it ten times harder to crack, and that isn't impossible, instead of sha256 or anything else, we come up with something harder to do and even super computers won't be able to touch it.

So there is really nothing to worry about, I understand people are fearing the power of a computer like that, and they are right, because not everything is blockchain, so we are going to be in trouble without a doubt, but not about bitcoin.

An interesting question but, in my opinion Whatever type of technology and equipment will be used later, they must follow the BTC working pattern otherwise it will be irrelevant. Satoshi was a smart guy and he was able to read which way the wind was going.

Are there any small miners left at the moment? It seems to me that they have long been pushed out by large Bitcoin mining enterprises. Isn't that so? You are a little late to talk about this. What is the point of mining for individuals now? After all, it has practically no meaning. There is no profit and there will be none.

As for supercomputers, you don't have to worry about that. Why? By the time such computing power becomes commonplace, the algorithms of blockchain technology will have changed and will become much more advanced than we can see today.

In my opinion, this is not the biggest problem that threatens the development of Bitcoin.

There is a huge amount of super-important infrastructure in the world that is protected by encryption. If super-complex quantum computers are created that are capable of cracking modern encryption systems, then Bitcoin will not be their primary target. In addition, Bitcoin developers are qualified and smart specialists. If a serious threat arises, they will take appropriate measures.

Therefore, in my opinion, there is nothing to worry about. Bitcoin derivatives, legislative regulation, competition from artificial intelligence are much more dangerous for Bitcoin.

I don't have deep knowledge on the subject. But it has always been one of the subjects I've been curious about.
On the surface, I don't believe it will happen. I don't think quantum computers will exist in the near future either.
Even if they do, whether crypto will adapt.the future can provide an opposing structure and security, and I believe in it a little more.

Um, quantum computers have existed for over well over 2 decades - in research labs. Thing is, they are still just in the research stage and unable to do anything useful. As I recall the most advanced ones only have 4096 qbits of processing ability and many many things still need to be addressed before they move out of labs. Funny thing is - that's been said ever since the 1st ones with only 1 qbit proved that in-principle they can work.

Will they one day be capable of what has been promised? Yes. As for when - I'd bet not within my lifetime.

When would it be deemed that "okay, now quantum computers are a threat to bitcoin"? How easy is it to switch to quantum resistant computing? How backwards compatible is it?

https://x.com/whale_alert/status/1849685315218256097

I was going to make a thread but it's nice to have this thread already open about this. Would it not be sensible to consider that if quantum computing reaches a state where it's usable, that it wouldn't be made public until the people who reached that state benefit themselves first?

And the argument that "there are other things that are more interesting to attackers", is no longer really true anymore. Bitcoin's market cap is higher than that of silver, cracking old bitcoin private keys is inconspicuous, and even completely legal today. If by some miraculous chance you landed on the same private key as Binance's cold wallet, that money is completely yours for the taking, as there was no intrusion, social engineering, or breaking any law of any kind to access it.

When exactly would this "switch" to quantum resistant computing happen, wouldn't it be safer to do before it's publicly known that quantum computing is now an issue? Because once that happens it's probably weeks or months too late, depending on how long it'd take to switch.

I think that Bitcoin will adjust the computational power, however, supercomputers running at full capacity need to calculate how much energy they consume

Bitcoin will win over super computers because it got time, with time Bitcoin will be able to apply better updates and with time super computers are not coming any time sooner, we've discussed this many time already and I am tired of hearing about super computers that will put Bitcoin out of Business, it is impossible.

You have a point but I feel like Super Computers will be seen as the new thing and they will get a lot o traction.

And for the technology to be more popular in the global market, it must have to involve bitcoin and cryptocurrency Blockchain because many countries are adapting technology that have relationship with decentralized currency, because those are the kind of tools and equipment people want to association these days. For the founder of bitcoin to make bitcoins online transactions, he knew that there will be different types of technology that will come up that will encourage bitcoiners to buy those technology for mining and other things, because it will make any decentralized transaction easy for users which is what we are experiencing these days and we will continue to see different computers that will make bitcoin more popular globally.

Where'd 2040 come from?

And assuming we do get that technological advancement, naturally the current state of Bitcoin wouldn't stand up against it lol. Hardly any existing system that uses the current level of algorithms that we have would. Granted it's the "current". Technological advancements don't only happen one-sidedly, everything goes up, even the algorithms people use for hashing, including the ones we use in crypto (and many others). It shouldn't be a problem imo, unless all the current repo maintainers suddenly went out of existence.

Also, I wouldn't worry about Bitcoin really. Before anything else, we'd probably see some sort of mayhem in the world first before that (Assuming everything stagnated). At that point I don't think Bitcoin being affected by QC would matter at all.

The pace will matter ,while if any "bad" person gets a "super" computer, as in something that can crack into anything with brute force of a few hours or even days, then this is not just bad for bitcoin, think of nuclear codes, think of all the sensitive information in all secret agencies around the world, think of all state top secret briefs, these are just the political parts.

What about company secrets? We will certainly learn what KFC crust is made of lol. So all in all, I believe you are right, we need to have the defense ready when something like this happens, which is why it will improve from both sides at the same time, this way if anyone has super computer, then we would have a defense against super computer and it would not change anything for security reasons. Bitcoin will be ready for it when the time comes, there isn't any proof of risk just yet, so we do not have to worry about this yet, we can take our time and not really care about advancements just yet.

I understand that by then, there will be quant resistant cryptography, not only for bitcoin, but for everything else... Therefore, we will likely go through a fork, but of course, in such case you will get to keep the bitcoin you already have ;)

A couple good links to current state of QC's
https://www.iotworldtoday.com/quantum/quantum-computers-expected-to-be-useful-by-2026-survey
https://www.iotworldtoday.com/quantum/how-logical-qubits-power-quantum-computing-s-journey-to-stage-2

It should be pointed out that there already are several makers of quantum encryption chips that provide enough complexity and randomness to defeat decryption even when faced with QC's once they are easier available in the future. One is https://www.iotworldtoday.com/quantum/cybersecurity-company-launches-post-quantum-cryptography-on-a-chip

Bitcoin can develop because it have every tendency and nothing stopping it from reach full potentials. Although what follows in the hurdles are bearish seasons, also the government have been fighting to make the development of bitcoin dormant. We do what's right and everything should be done in close order, for the purpose to obtained good information about bitcoin, not just that but other projects. Bitcoin developers knows the specific tasks that are supposed to be completed, we having constant issues, threats about bitcoin but at the end of the day, it scales through these means and becoming a general trend in the space. There's basically more knowledge to acquire when we're talking about bitcoin and the space. We just have to be extremely careful because information is needed and consider a priority.

The race between the code crackers and the code makers is one the code makers are bound to win, it is true that quantum computers will be able to break current algorithms with ease, but quantum algorithms to encrypt information already exist and they are getting better, then it is clear that whenever we are close to getting those computers close to breaking the current cryptography in use, we can move to one of those algorithms and forget about this for good.

IBM Quantum System Two in 2024

https://youtu.be/1_gJp2uAjO0?t=145

I don't spot a any  competition here actually, instead I see that both will be having a synergy that will boost productivity and even help them project each other because I believe the super computers will leverage on the block chain technology for some of its usability and you cannot leverage the block chain completely without having some Links around Bitcoin so it's a win win situation for both.

It's probably from PDF talks about ECDSA standard which claim ECC can protect data/remain secure until 2040[1].

https://i.ibb.co/FVt4BRw/a.png (https://imgbb.com/)
Source: SEC[1]


Quantum resistant cryptography already exist, where NIST even finalize 3 of such cryptography[2]. It's just matter when Bitcoin developer suggest to choose and implement certain of such cryptography.

[1] https://www.secg.org/sec1-v2.pdf (https://www.secg.org/sec1-v2.pdf) page 73.
[2] https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2024/08/nist-releases-first-3-finalized-post-quantum-encryption-standards (https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2024/08/nist-releases-first-3-finalized-post-quantum-encryption-standards)

Every day, hackers attack all sorts of programs. This is a common occurrence, and of course, every action always creates a reaction.

Hackers create new threats, and software developers create protection against these threats. This situation is called "Battle of armor and shell".

Therefore, the creation of new quantum supercomputers does not pose a serious threat to Bitcoin.

In addition, it should be noted that the creation of quantum computers is a pre-determined event that is not a surprise to anyone (including Bitcoin developers).

It's true that there have been discussions that I have read long time ago even on 2017, everyone is worried about this. But as the network's strength, it's very adaptable and there will be changes as well that we shall see if it's needed and that's imminent to happen. Also, I think we should stop glorifying the quantum computers because even now, there are corporations that are using it already. If it's going to be a way to decrypt wallets and private keys, there's nothing to worry about because they should have done it as soon as it's ready to the market but then, there's no incident of the worry that should come from it. People should be more wary about the hacks that are happening from the typical methods that we know.

There were modern computers before the existence of bitcoin and those couldn't crack through the blockchain tech, in same vein am believing that bitcoin developers are also working in enhancement of the blockchain against such advance tech in the future like the quantum computers.
  Perhaps that's exactly what we would be seeing years from now when quantum computers become mainstream. Take Tesla cars for instance, not everyone could afford it even after since it was created, and that's how it's likely going to be with quantum computers and those few who could afford it would majorly have a central monopoly of the bitcoin mining.

NIST has a good explainer on how PQC (Post Quantum Cryptography) works https://www.nist.gov/cybersecurity/what-post-quantum-cryptography

One common statement you will see in most articles and papers is: