Bitcoin Forum

The very first P2P transaction was made on 12 January 2009 when Satoshi Nakamoto sent 10 BTC to Hal Finney.
Source (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#:~:text=receiver%20of%20the-,first%20bitcoin%20transaction,-was%20programmer%20Hal)
16 years ago today, that transaction might have been worth nothing in value, and today it is valued at $950K. BTC has achieved a lot and outperformed the expectations of many. Even Satoshi might not have predicted it. I first came to know about BTC in 2018 and it was somewhere between $3k and $5k, it was very cheap I planned to buy it with my cousin by borrowing money but I suggested investing in anything by taking a loan can be very risky, plus we both were unemployed so we did not take the risk, and now we both regret it. Well, the opportunity was missed. Can we still make this much gain in the upcoming 16 years? What do you guys think?

I am sure that in the next 16 years, the price of Bitcoin will grow at least 10 times. Moreover, this is a very conservative forecast.

Bitcoin's capitalization has already exceeded the capitalization of silver. At the same time, we know that Bitcoin is called digital gold. When Bitcoin's capitalization equals the capitalization of gold, its price will be higher than 500 thousand US dollars.

At one time, Satoshi Nakamoto said that in the future there will be either a lot of Bitcoin transactions, or none. And 16 years ago, the founder of Bitcoin did not know which of the two scenarios would come true.

However, now we know that Bitcoin has become a digital asset that is of great importance for all of Humanity.

Since it is not a one time opportunity profits can still be made out of your investment, we only get to stick to the strategies. The experience now teaches you enough on how to process your investment, missing Bitcoin at $3K was a lucky chance most really wanted to meet and spoon on. Sixteen years (16) years from now is a different three cycles put together, what we should be expecting to actualize in this time frame is something above an ATH of $500K, we still don't know what our current ATH will be for  current cycle but if it gets to $200K then precisely will might approach triple of our ATH in the 16 years interval, i must say it is conveniently enough profits within the time gap.

Yeah like I have always said, no time is too late to buy bitcoin and the most important thing is the cash flow to buy bitcoin with, take ops example when he and his cousin met bitcoin was around $5000 and considered cheap yet they did not have enough cash flow to buy at that time, so to them at that time, bitcoin is very expensive.

But now some guys can at least hold a portion of bitcoin comfortably for a long time, because times have changed and they now have higher income compared to when they met Bitcoin, so for them, bitcoin is cheap right now, just position yourself to take advantage of the chances.

At first when I saw the title of this post I first thought well this post is definitely wrong and that's because the first ever bitcoin P2p transaction happened Long ago and I think it was between Satoshi and Hal Finney besides there can be only one first P2P transaction right? .

Anyways bitcoin has been too good to be true that's if you actually follow past trends and stuff. The price movement over the last couple of years have been nothing but massive. Bitcoin will continue in this trend much longer than we expect but the thing is people may not be able to accurately tell price movement as time goes on.

The thread title kinda throws me off since first p2p happen long ago but I finally understand it after reading OP that it's about the time and date which is January 12. It kinda make me compared it to 2 pizza although the amount of bitcoin is not the same although it's price would be different between today and before just like the bitcoin pizza. My answers to your question is that yes, we can gain in the next upcoming next 16 years since price is changing time after time so it means there will be many opportunities.

For one i never recommend taking out a loan for anything that you can lose.  But do i think there is still a ton of unfinished business in terms of the bitcoin price, yeaht here is still plenty of time to make money on crypto no need to back away now.  Its still in its early times and the price should only go up from here.  But dont ever take put loans and create debt hoping that you will make money with that.  If it drops it could cripple your financial situation.

I don’t advice people to borrow money to invest in Bitcoin. And to answer your question about the future of bitcoin in the next 16 years would mean I have a crystal ball in my hands. You don’t have to take my word or the words of anyone, you can search coingecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin) for the statistics of how bitcoin has performed over the years.

It's a good reminder and anniversary for one of most important moments in Bitcoin history.

There are some resources to have a closer look on this first Bitcoin P2P transaction.
Payment No. 1: A Closer Look at the Very First Bitcoin Transfer (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2346992.0)
Bitcoin and me. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=155054.0) Hal Finney shared some information about it in this story telling topic.

Just like no one predicted bitcoin to reach this much growth back then, I believe it is the same as now. People may think that it is over and bitcoin has hit its peak or its ceiling and that it is not going to grow any more but I would disagree. I believe in bitcoin and its utility and security are only a few factors why I think it would never diminish in value not even talking about the fact that it is anti inflation due to its fixed supply.

Another 16 years and we would wish we have bought more bitcoins today when we are looking back. That is if you have not yet. Make every year count, grab every opportunity.

Wow this is truly historical and I am regretful for not taking full advantage of the opportunity at the time, as we were blind to the future of what the results will be today. Happy New Year everyone, the time is now.

The Bitcoin founder, Satoshi Nakamoto made his prediction on Bitcoin future before his disappearance.


Prediction is about Bitcoin transaction volume, not directly about its price, but it's easily to connect between demand and price. Higher demand in higher transaction volume means higher price. It's an easy math especially if we know Bitcoin future inflation decreases with time, halves every 210,000 blocks or about every 4 years.

How is 21 millions bitcoin cap defined and enforced. (https://blog.lopp.net/how-is-the-21-million-bitcoin-cap-defined-and-enforced/)

Bitcoin has long surpassed the value of silver, but it is conceivable that BTC will equal the value of gold, but it needs a much better position and time. When we think about it, gold is stable. Bitcoin could not be stable like that, but the way the gold market moves, it can be stable. We need to wait a lot, and we do not know if it will happen because nothing can be said for sure, but we can temporarily expect that Bitcoin's stability will be equal to the price of gold.

However, it is true that if Bitcoin were equal to the value of gold, its price would be more than five hundred thousand US dollars. It seems natural to me that it will equal 500 thousand US dollars.

Looking back a few years ago, we can see the situation with Bitcoin. And now, what situation has it reached in the present time? As we move forward in line with the modern world, Bitcoin will take a good position.

Totally. It's a no-brainer that the price of Bitcoin would skyrocket after so many cycles we think about in a 16 years or so.
So we can make as much as OP said and more - we just need to learn about Bitcoin, follow what's new about it, and keep our diamond hands at hodling.

What I fathom with Bitcoin's history is the reminder that it's never too late, we are always early. Hal Finney on the other hand after receiving the btc worked so hard to improve the technology, I've seen some tweets about his predictions on Bitcoin, and the dreams he had for btc, which is quite big. Having Bitcoin at this rate 16 years after the first transaction, proves that our expectations should be targeting $millions per 1 in the next 15-16 years.

We will always think about how BTC will be in the future to come.
Wonderful thoughts indeed. And it truly brightens the mood thinking that in the end, Bitcoin will be adopted more and more through the world

That might have been indeed a big gamble in initial days. But slowly slowly the efforts made it worth something now.

When a project is passionate and upholds its ideals - it has more chances to withstand the test of time.
Indeed, we can only see the meaning behind these words only now, and appreciate Bitcoin as it is.

Some countries have existed for decades, yet they have not gained close to the popularity and value that Bitcoin has gotten in these few years. I don't blame you for not taking the risk of borrowing money to invest because Bitcoin was just a new invention that most people never expected would increase to this extent. I know that Bitcoin is still in its infant stage and will keep growing. So anybody who invests now is still an early adopter. There are millions of people who will join the train later. We are just privileged to be part of the system now. We must keep hodling regardless of the FUD because some people who sold early are regretting their actions.

Investment is risky and if you invest with loan money, it is more risky.

With loan, they must be very lucky to have profit from their entry and if they are not very experienced investors, risk of joining when market is going to its top, and stuck there with their risky bet, is very high.

When market has correction, changes to bearish, they will have more pressure from loan interests, loss in investment, and maybe loan expiration call. It is many risk if they do loan for investment, but if they do loan for trading and with leverages or futures, it has another big risk, they will be liquidated by exchanges and lose most of loan money.

In the future, it will be a struggle for sats themselves.
Mark my words.
 ;)

I also have the same prediction that in the next 16 years it will perform better unless it goes into a super cycle, as if that happens, I don't know what will be the top of BTC in the next 16 years. About the price of BTC, if it crosses Gold's Mcap, then if we go precisely by calculating the current market cap of Gold, which is around $18 trillion, and BTC Mcap is 1.9 trillion dollars at the price of $96.8k, it has to be worth around $850k per unit.

But it is not like Gold's market cap will not increase too, because we know people are too doubtful they are not going to keep their gains from BTC in BTC form instead they will eventually choose Gold over BTC, maybe due to some disaster, as it's not like the players in the market just like that let BTC cross Gold so there might be drama. I hope there will not be.

With time, Bitcoin will have better adoption if the adoption trend continues, but its market cap increases and becomes bigger mean other things. With bigger market cap, Bitcoin will have smaller ROIs for future market cycles.
https://charts.bitbo.io/price-year-over-year/
https://casebitcoin.com/charts#roi_chart

Time	Bitcoin	Gold	S&P500
_________	______________	___________	_________
1 year	+126%	+33%	+23%
2 year	+361%	+40%	+47%
3 year	+125%	+47%	+27%
4 year	+166%	+47%	+54%
5 year	+990%	+72%	+75%
6 year	+2,574%	+107%	+119%
7 year	+761%	+102%	+108%
8 year	+10,701%	+121%	+157%
9 year	+25,325%	+146%	+209%
10 year	+46,959%	+110%	+188%
11 year	+11,646%	+114%	+216%
12 year	+617,327%	+59%	+293%
13 year	+1.5 million%	+61%	+343%
14 year	+31 million%	+97%	+352%
_________	______________	___________	_________

Bitcoin needs an increase of 10 times and bigger to take over a first position of gold in market cap, because during the same period, gold price and its marketcap will increase too. So assuming Bitcoin will need like 15x or 20x from 2025 price to take over a first position of gold in future.

https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/

It was just a way to show the date, as full content of the post explains the situation, only the pic is enough to get an idea.

You are right, we should not take loans for business and investments although many big businessmen also take loans with interest to run their businesses why they do it, it depends on a number of factors like to save themselves from taxes or they must have fixed assets. I am still very bullish on BTC I did DCA in BTC last year and made around 3x from it till now but I own a small part of it. I still think $1 million for 1 BTC is achievable but I still won't take a loan to buy one.

I know how BTC has performed in the past and to get a better idea I don't think CGC is a good place instead we should read historical articles or we can read threads started on BTT Source 1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5138618.0) and Source 2 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5187275.0).

Using leverage is always risky for either an individual or a company or a big institutional investor. There are success and failures but you can not think that if you accept risk, make loan, use high leverage, you will get success but not failure.

The key point is control risk, avoid loss as much as possible, as if you can not have good risk and capital management, with either small or big capital, you will have loss, not profit. With trader or investor, the worst thing is losing your initial capital that is like your blood. Without capital, a trader and an investor finish his job, and can retire to find another job to work for money.

DCA is proven as a very good strategy for investment in long term and with very good ROI of Bitcoin over years, DCA Bitcoin is an effective investment strategy.
https://dcabtc.com/
https://casebitcoin.com/charts#roi_chart

i think the key here is to focus on the future not the past. While bitcoin's growth has been remarkable, it doesn't mean the opportunities for growth are over. I'd recommend continuing to keep an eye on the market and maybe considering other potential investments that align with your financial goals

We are still early, that's the simple truth about Bitcoin.
With each year passing by, its credibility and desire for its adoption only become stronger.
 8)

It's not a game.
It's a way of thinking and the set of ideas that are being upheld to this day.
And Bitcoin would overcome all of the challenges as time goes on. Slowly but surely.

Don't regret that, never live with the past because you can't fix it. Instead, focus on the future and always keep in mind that it's past mistakes that change us and make us better. Maybe it could be bad for you if you didn't learn from that mistake, keep this in mind too.

Now, let's talk about gains. Bitcoin went from nothing to everything, from a few dollars to one hundred thousand dollars, this is basically x100K boost. Bitcoin will never achieve such a gain the next years because its market cap is already very high, billions of dollars. I expect the price of Bitcoin to double, triple or go up to a million dollars max.

You are right we should never regret on what we missed but I don't know why it is regretful whenever I think about it hehe, I am glad that I did not miss the opportunity to accumulate some BTC in the last year so I don't regret now as I am in profit now. We all must keep it up even smaller amounts can make us big money in BTC, speaking of making us double, triple, and hitting $1 million max is the optimistic price set for BTC.

But in the upcoming halvings, I think we can expect more, as like now we was not expecting BTC to hit $100k (at least I was not) same like this later in upcoming halvings we won't be expecting it to hit $10 million haha, I know that's crazy if BTC hit $10 million dollars. That's just gonna take too long, I might not be here, so I think the optimistic target for my age is $800k, I want to see more though. hehe.