Bitcoin Forum

Guess the date the Mt. Gox price hits $5.

Time zone is whatever Thailand uses. Its 4:11 p.m. now...

Only 1 guess.

Winner gets 2BTC

Only the first guess for the date counts.

If you edit your post you lose.

All guesses must be placed in the next 48 hours. If it hits $5 in less than 48 hours the contest is void and I will do it again for $10.



Disclaimer, as OP I am God and I can do whatever the fuck I want.

(Check out my sig to help fund more contests in the future)


Edit: You must hit the date. If no one guesses that date I will do it again for $6. Also the guessing needs to be for a future date, not past:)

As a USER take out the motherboard!

My guess is 12/24/2011.

Jan 20

I'm sticking with June 27. I'm using PST though -- screw you and your Thailand time zones! ;)

(Note: if by some miracle I actually end up being correct, you can give my $5 prize (1BTC) to the joint.)

Dec - 25 - 2011

Dec 26 2011

Dec 27th 2011

10-May-2011  ;D

1/1/2011 ;D
EDIT:
1/1/2012 :-[

2012-01-13

December 28th 2011

December 29th 2011

December 30th 2011, lol

22 Dec 2011

2011-12-22

January 22 2012

2012-01-12 04:45:10.028 GMT

January 11 2012

Please..  no ambiguous date formats.  (so far I don't see any.. I'm just preempting it)
We don't need another parochial whinger complaining about competition results because they didn't realize the planet is a little bigger than Iowa.

e.g  1/2/2012    is ambiguous.  In some parts of the word that's the 1st of February, in others its the 2nd of January.

I seem to be the only one so far who's used the basic ISO 8601 format.
see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_8601

For 1st Feb 2012 iso8601 format would be: 2012-02-01
for 2nd Jan 2012 iso8601 format would be: 2012-01-02  

edit: oh.. I see bitclown used a full ISO 8601 time.. nice :)

:)
I was just about to post the same - after having counted already 11 (!) different formats in this thread to specify a day!

Also: 2012-01-30

AFAIK,
1/2/2012 is the 2nd of January, but
1.2.2012 is the 1st of February.
Can you bring an example of a country, where 1/2/2012 means the 1st of February?

Technically, if should list Z for UTC or the offset from UTC, not GMT.

Sure. Australia. (And I believe also the UK, though I haven't been there to experience it)
I've been writing in the form 2012-02-01 on cheques etc for over a decade now - but nearly everyone here still writes 1/2/2012 and most paper forms still have the forward slashes in place.
It's an uphill battle - but I think gradually ISO 8601 may gain traction as the world shrinks due to the internet, increased travel and closer ties.

I vote January 15, 2012.


(Lol, Thai time. Are we voting on BTC being $5, or on the time we reach 5 $/฿? :D)

January 3, 2012.

Since the separating character between the fields does not really matter to humans, you can probably find examples in any country using day-month-year order. It's not common in my part of Europe but I have definitely seen it being used.

Everyone in the Netherlands would interpret this as the 1st of February.

New Year's Eve 31. Dec. (2011-12-31 ICT)

On that day everyone is optimistic, so we wil catch that 5$.

5th of Jan 2012.

2, january 2012

2012-01-12 04:45:10.028 GMT   will be on 2012-01-12 in Thailand  (whether or not you have daylight savings there)

The rule stated as:
"Time zone is whatever Thailand uses. Its 4:11 p.m. now..."
does not in itself make it clear that you wouldn't accept a precise guess specified in another timezone

..but .. your game your rules.. so now it does!

Since every other more recent date is taken I will take 2011-01-04 or January 4th.

OT: Just found a handy watch: current UTC time and date: http://time.is/UTC or http://time.is/Thailand for Thailand

Sure, Europe and probably the rest of the world

http://static.themetapicture.com/media/funny-US-vs-world-metric-system-date.jpg

April 27th, 2012

January 12th

I think that was taken already...  look a page up

January 13th then

2012-02-11 will be the day

BTW, how can we see if people have edited their posts?

If your post is not here, please check if you were the first to vote that day!

2012-02-04   (4 of 2 of 2012)

January 9th, 2012

10th Jan 2012

January 4th 2012

January 8th, 2012.

...Dare I ask if I'm eligible to vote?   :D

January 7th, 2012

december 22, 2011

12.10.11 00:00-2500

3rd May 2012

Voting only because I hate US time format.

Jan 16, 2012

2012-02-17

January 11th 2012.

April 12th, 2012.

2012-01-04

I just noticed I got the year wrong. I also notice two other people guessed the same date after me. Goat does my guess still count for 2012 seeing as the date I mentioned has already passed or should I make a new guess?

Haven't I already won this?  ::)

9-January-2012

2012-02-18

Jan. 5, 2012.  According to whatever rules hath been deemed honorable by the One Most High.  I hereby decline any and all

SOB! You know I sided with you immediately on that last contest right? *wink* *wink* JK no big deal.

Oh well, I pick 2012-01-06 then, the next nearest available date. It will really suck if it passes on the 4th though lol.

already taken

Also already taken... Wouldnt want to see you whine if it did come to pass on that day. I still don't know how the hell you managed to swindle 7 coins out of that deal. My entire BTC balance is 10 so this would be like a double up to me.

^^^....hereby withdraw any right to a fair trial and agree not to bitch, complain, argue, or whine about the final decision.

Dude, honestly, let it go.  "Karma" ran its inevitable course, and there's a likely chance your entire party was on the shorter end of the karmic stick.

 "Fallacy is not made true by multiplied propagation, nor is truth made into fallacy because nobody will believe it."

Thats funny we were all telling you to let it go. What party would that be by the way? As far as I knew I am an individual and not part of any "party". Karma definitely did not run its course or you would have gotten nothing. I am glad you will not bitch and whine about the results of this contest however.

I won't.  Will you also stop whining and bitching about those who you think whine and bitch and set the good example?

Best of luck to all :)

How exactly did I bitch and whine? I actually did you a solid by telling you that your guess was invalid and already taken.

Whine about whiners? Thats rich!

I vote 2011-12-31, the last day of this year.

Here are the votes I've counted thus far:

2012-01-17 (January 17)

i guess i'll enter for the hellovit and say February 13 2012

2012-01-06 is *unambiguously* the 6th of January. Please don't muddy the waters by implying this format is ambiguous. It's not. Nowhere does it mean june 1.

1325972242

I didn't see that you had guessed it. I went over everyone elses bids though. Thanks for giving me the day.

I wrote it in ISO format so it is January 6. I always write my dates in ISO format since I have to for work.

It looks like it is not taken so I will take 1/12/12 = January 12th, 2012

You would think, but I would recommend using ISO 8601 as you have, but spelling out or abbreviating the month. 2012-JAN-06 is truly unambiguous, or at least less ambiguous. One should be on guard against what those living in the center of the Universe are capable of assuming.

Sorry Tvbcof, 2012-01-07 21:37:22 is already taken:

Is that 10 May mine? Because I MEANT to put 2011, as bitcoin DID cross $5 2011-May-10. :)

See rule in OP:

Might as well get in before all the January slots are gone.

1/23/2011

2012-JAN-25

###guess123###  1330224457  tvbcof

Just FYI, I used the format above so that a quick list might be generated as so (for those on UNIX or MAC or with presumably cygwin on Windows.)

==========

wget --no-check-certificate -qO- "https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=55275.0;all" | grep '###guess123###' | sed 's/&nbsp;//g' | sed 's/<br/ /g' | awk -F "###guess123###" '{print $2}' | awk '{print $1" "$2}' | sort -n | uniq

1330224457 tvbcof

==========

It's a bit of a hack and I would clean up the regular expressions and stuff if I was going to use it.

Perhaps Parimutuel betting, weighted by bet time before the event. That way multiple people place a wager on the same dates, increasing the winning pool to the advantage of the earlier betters.

ISO isn't difficult for both humans and computers to parse. I should think the following would suffice:

netrin: 2011-12-31

If I were running a game (and thus, the God of it) I would:

1)  Demand a tagged format such as I used above which would allow me, and probably about half of everyone else, to get a quick list of sorted results without wading through page after page on the forum, and

2) Demand UNIX time be used since it is widely understood, completely unambiguous, and easy for anyone to obtain for whatever timezone they like using something like this:

  http://www.epochconverter.com/

The winner would be chosen as a result of the most simple of arithmetic.  Period.  The chances of a tie (equidistant bets on either side) are so remote that I would happily pay each party in full if it happened.

I usually budget several hours of tearing my hair out whenever I have to do any time related coding.  Unix time makes most things vastly easier.

With some fiddling around, I could extend my hack above to automatically produce a human readable form from the stamp (but then questions arise about whether one is on BSD or Linux or has python installed (and where) and all that jazz...)

But I have no intention of running a game since I find them silly and only quasi-participated in this one as an experiment in various things.

Now there's UNIX time?!  AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

January 17th, 2012.

Actually, that's already taken, so I'll go with January 27, 2012.

Jan 5th, 2012

Oh, man, he added that AFTER I made my prediction.

Oh well, I guess that was covered in this rule:

And so it continues.

Thanks, but I've decided to settle on Lunar Time for now.

Kid, what the fck did you do at school?

He went to a school where they teach different things than at your school.  It happens.  In some places is day/month/year, others it is month/day/year.  AFAIK if it's dots it is always day.month.year, but I wouldn't be surprised to find yet another date format used in the wild.

Nobody picked tomorrow yet? 
2011-12-23

♥-DAY!

(Feb. 14, 2011)

1st minute of Jan 3rd 2012.

it takes about 200 $k to hit 5 $ at the moment. There are enough funds on MtGox already. If people decide to have fun holiday trading,and have BTC before masses add funds to MtGox in the new year, we may hit 5 $ soon:

Guess: Dec 29, 2011

1/2/2012 is 2 January in the United States and 1 February in Europe, Latin America, Middle East, though everyone should be confused.

1.2.2012 would be 1 February most everywhere, though North Americans might be confused.

I have never come across mm.dd.yyyy anywhere in the world. Generally it is only the United States (and its minor influence in Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and Canada) that uses a dyslexic (mixed endian) system, where the /-slash is near universally used.

Europe, Mid East, Latin America and some of Asia use little endian, with just about any delimiter (., /, -, 年, 月) though big endian is more common in Asia. Only a four digit year would clarify the order.

I've seen some mixed delimiters, such as 22/12-2011, in Germany and nordic countries, or roman numeral months in central Europe, but it is always little endian, unless the delimiter glyph represent the month, year, such as in Chinese 2011年12月22日.

Generally, the / is completely ambiguous and should be avoided. Both . and - denote little endian or big endian and should contain a four digit year. I personally suggest big endian, four digit year, and abbreviated month for least ambiguity and maximum clarity, such as 2011-DEC-22.

I think DEC-27-2011

That's true, but on the other hand, it would only take a dump of ~50kBTC to take the price down to $3.  We've seen at least a few people trade around that volume in the past month or so, so I don't think it's an unlikely possibility that somebody could cash out.  In fact, IIRC, somebody bought 40kBTC or so at $2.9.  That person could drop the price down to right around $3 and make a pretty nice profit right now.

The 20k dumped today is likely to be the person who bought at $2.9.

Not sure if you mean 'now' on earth, or 'now' on this thread.  If the former...

Unix epoch time has been around for about 40 years.  It is simply the number of seconds since midnight January 1st 1970 GMT.

Because it is simple and means the same thing regardless of timezone, daylight savings, etc, etc, it is very popular in computer related engineering.

It is also the case that there is only one way to format an integer which is hugely useful in avoiding problems...and math on integers is also very straightforward.

If this game (or the ones preceding it) specified to use of Unix epoch time and gave a link to a converter, I bet there would be 95% fewer issues.  And if a tag is used as I described, the entire forum thread could be scanned and results published with several seconds of effort.

Maybe. 

jan 24

Nah, I suspect that was Zhoutong prepping for the massive holiday rally that's one the way. He just needed to liquidate a few of the weaker longs in the game or at least pull their stops  ;D

Tonight!

Dec 28. 2011

Already taken by me, see first page. :)

Hm...
so i'll take the 30. dec 2011
if already taken i'll take the afternoon of this day^^ (UTC)

Reserving 2012-01-12 (January 12, 2012)

Edit: Whoops, killed by the post above me. January 12 is my new guess.
xx/xx/xxxx is DD/MM/YYYY format in Canada, though generally common usage is YYYY-MM-DD or MONTH DD, YYYY here. This is especially true when the xx/xx/xxxx format isn't obvious, because of US influence. 01/02/2011 is February 1 here though, and it can get confusing if you even get close to the states.

Unfortunately, there is also another very confusing format that is used by lazier people: DD/MM/YY (05/12/11 for example) and YY/DD/MM (11/05/12). Things can get very confusing if YY/MM/DD (rare - I haven't seen this) or MM/DD/YY (only in the US AFAIK) get mixed in.

These so-called "lazy date formats" primarily use slashes, which I perceive as being introduced from the states - even though our formats are incompatible with theirs.

Dates are confusing!

(on another note, I only realized the MM/DD/YYYY format existed a few years ago. That means I seem to meet the definition of the stereotypical ignorant American.)

Canada must be thoroughly confused, and as you point out, they might not even know they are confused, which is a bit scary. The francophone areas of the east predominantly use a 24-hour clock with little-endian dates with dot or space delimiters and 12-hour and slash dates most everywhere else, and mixed-endian close to the US border. Canada adopted the big-endian hyphen delimited ISO 8601 format for all official documentation in 1989 (CSA Z234.5) but it doesn't seem to be common on the street.

Big-endian follows the numbers themselves: thousands, hundreds, tens, ones; Year, month, day, hour, minute, second; Dollars, cents... Aside from dates, it seems only names and geographical places are referenced little-indian or mixed: 5th Ave, New York City, New York, USA, Earth.

The only thing more confusing, I think are Danish, German and similar spoken number systems, for example: fem hundrede syvoghalvfems = 597 = five hundred seven and half-five (twenties)

Ja danskere, halvfems er i virkeligheden en forkortelse for halvfemsindstyve.

2012-01-07

... from the OP: