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Title: The Silent Shift: Bitcoin As a Strategic Global Reserve [A boring analysis] Post by: slapper on May 08, 2025, 07:54:57 AM We’re not in a replacement scenario anymore. We’re in convergence, fragmentation, and coexistence all at once. The fiat-crypto debate is now a negotiation of rails, not a war of currencies. Anyone still arguing for total takeover is still sleepwalking the 2017 in a 2025 economy
1. BTC As a State Asset Class? So… the U.S. Treasury is now sitting on ~207,000 BTC, seized and locked. Executive Order 14233 wants to turn that into a Strategic Reserve [1] (https://www.lathamreg.com/2025/03/president-trump-issues-executive-order-establishing-a-strategic-bitcoin-reserve/). But the Treasury missed its own deadline (May 5) to publish the legal framework for this reserve. And that silence is loud. Market doesn’t like policy fog, especially with a $12B asset pool under the feds. Meanwhile, the BITCOIN Act proposes buying 1 million BTC over 5 years. Sounds insane? That’s roughly 5% of total supply. Politicians are split: some call it economic foresight, others call it gambling with public funds Question for the forum: if state treasuries start DCA in, what happens to the inflation hedge narrative? Does Bitcoin become… boring? 2. El Salvador still troll the IMF Bukele’s wallet holds 6,170 BTC, worth ~$600M [2] (https://bitcoin.gob.sv/) https://www.talkimg.com/images/2025/05/08/UUPVzN.png IMF literally told them in writing to limit accumulate BTC in their new $1.4B loan agreement [3] (https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/02/26/pr25043-el-salvador-imf-approves-new-40-month-us1-bn-eff-arr). What does El Salvador do? Buys 31 BTC in 30 days, calls it a “citizen donation”. Creative or trolling? More importantly, 92% of Salvadorans still don’t use Bitcoin Geopolitically: They’re trying to make a long-term hedge against dollar risk. Economically: They still depend on remittances and U.S. tourism. Politically: It’s theater 3. ETFs - Flowing In, Confusing Everyone Since January 2024, spot BTC ETFs in the U.S. pulled in $40B+ in net inflows, with $3.5B in final-week of April alone[4] (https://farside.co.uk/btc/) https://www.talkimg.com/images/2025/05/08/UUP8lH.png https://www.talkimg.com/images/2025/05/08/UUPbmg.png BlackRock’s IBIT led the pack, pulling $674M, $531M on May 2 and May 5, respectively But the 6 May ETF data was completely contradictory. Some firms said +$420M inflow [5] (https://x.com/lookonchain/status/1919769760776245338), another said -$85M outflow (chart above). This kind of noise is dangerous. How can institutions model volatility when the inflow data itself isn’t accurate? Also, what happens when the next correction hits and retail gets liquidated via ETF exposure? Will this be 2017 all over again, but in suits? 4. The Global Central Bank Divide
The IMF now labels BTC as a “non-produced, non-financial asset” and wants 2030 compliance on accounting for it, legitimation with a side of shade. The ECB, on the other hand, is doubling down on the digital euro, trying to write off BTC as a systemic risk. MiCA 2.0 is on the table. And they’re definitely not inviting Satoshi to the G7 dinner Are we seeing the emergence of Bitcoin as a shadow monetary layer, quietly being adopted by institutions and states as a hedge against debt-fueled fiat collapse? Or is this just another risk-on rally, where ETF flows and American political theater temporarily pump the asset before another year-long drawdown?
I would also much value any comments on anything in the layout, data, statistics, or presentation style that seems off, or could be clearer. Not only the material but also the delivery method. I constantly want to improve my sharing of things here Edit: table is broken, really need some help, i need a smoke right now Title: Re: The Silent Shift: Bitcoin As a Strategic Global Reserve [A boring analysis] Post by: franky1 on May 08, 2025, 12:23:02 PM So… the U.S. Treasury is now sitting on ~207,000 BTC, seized and locked. Executive Order 14233 wants to turn that into a Strategic Reserve [1] (https://www.lathamreg.com/2025/03/president-trump-issues-executive-order-establishing-a-strategic-bitcoin-reserve/). But the Treasury missed its own deadline (May 5) to publish the legal framework for this reserve. a few clarifications: of the 207k btc about half of that is actually proceeds to be returned to victims(bitfinex) of hacks. so the treasury will not get to keep all 207k .. the treasury did send a evaluation to the president within the 60 days(it did not need public disclosure/publishing), and there is suppose to be a crypto summit of the crypto czars this friday to frame it into a legal framework, which is where details will probably become public |
