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Economy => Exchanges => Topic started by: Trêvoid on May 09, 2025, 06:18:27 AM



Title: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: Trêvoid on May 09, 2025, 06:18:27 AM
https://talkimg.com/images/2025/05/09/UUzBYI.png


It's truly sad to see exch.net, a pioneer in privacy-focused instant crypto exchanges, seized and shut down despite its important role in advancing anonymous transactions.

Quote
by the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA)
on behalf of the Attorney General's Office in Frankfurt am Main
in the course of a coordinated law enforcement operation.


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: TryNinja on May 09, 2025, 06:23:48 AM
Damn. :(

Here is the press release in German: https://www.presseportal.de/blaulicht/pm/7/6029813

Google translation:

Quote
Crypto swapping service "eXch" shut down Cryptocurrencies worth around 34 million euros seized

On 30.04.2025, the Frankfurt am Main Public Prosecutor's Office - Central Office for Combating Internet Crime (ZIT) - and the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) seized the server infrastructure of the crypto swapping service "eXch" located in Germany and shut down the platform. The service was available under the domain eXch.cx and various other Internet addresses. In addition to extensive data of over eight terabytes, the crypto assets Bitcoin, Ether, Litecoin and Dash were seized, currently worth the equivalent of about 34 million euros. It is the third-highest seizure of crypto assets in the history of the BKA.

eXch was a service that had been in existence since 2014 and allowed users to exchange different cryptocurrencies for other cryptocurrencies (known as "swapping"). The platform was accessible on both the clearnet and the darknet and specifically advertised on platforms of the criminal underground economy (UE) that it would not implement any anti-money laundering measures. Users did not have to identify themselves to the service, nor was user data stored there. In this respect, crypto swapping via eXch was particularly suitable for concealing financial flows. Since the service's inception, an estimated $1.9 billion in crypto assets have been transferred. There is a suspicion that eXch received Bitcoin of criminal origin in particular. Among other things, part of the stolen sum of 1.5 billion US dollars from the crypto exchange Bybit, which was hacked on 21.02.2025, is said to have been exchanged via eXch.

The operators of eXch are therefore suspected of commercial money laundering and the operation of a criminal trading platform on the Internet.

The operators had initially announced at short notice that they would discontinue their service on 01.05.2025. The authorities preempted this and secured numerous pieces of evidence and traces. Despite a short preparation time, the platform's database and the associated crypto assets were secured. In the investigation, ZIT and BKA cooperated closely with the Dutch Tax Investigation Service (FIOD). ZIT and BKA assume that the findings gained in the proceedings will also contribute to the investigation of a large number of other cybercrimes.

Carsten Meywirth, Director at the Federal Criminal Police Office and Head of the Cybercrime Department, said: "Once again, we have secured a record-breaking amount of incriminated cryptocurrencies in the millions and pulled the plug on a digital money laundering platform. The dimensions impressively show that cybercrimes are committed on an industrial scale. We will continue to increase the risk of loss for the underground economy with all the means at our disposal. Our goal remains to hold those responsible accountable."

Dr. Benjamin Krause, Senior Public Prosecutor of the ZIT added: "Crypto swapping is an essential part of the underground economy in order to conceal incriminated funds from illegal activities such as hacking or the trade in stolen payment card data and thus make them usable for the perpetrators. This makes it all the more important that law enforcement authorities take consistent action against such rapid and anonymous opportunities for money laundering at any level and deprive the perpetrators of the proceeds of the crime."


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: examplens on May 09, 2025, 11:45:30 AM
It's truly sad to see exch.net, a pioneer in privacy-focused instant crypto exchanges, seized and shut down despite its important role in advancing anonymous transactions.
Where did you get this page?
When I try to open exch.net, I get an error page saying the site is unavailable. As far as I can see, exch.cx is still redirected to the .pw domain and contains information that exch is shut down.

Now I'm not sure how to contact them further, whether the .cx domain and the associated email addresses are still under the control of the eXch team.


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: Trêvoid on May 09, 2025, 04:01:28 PM
It's truly sad to see exch.net, a pioneer in privacy-focused instant crypto exchanges, seized and shut down despite its important role in advancing anonymous transactions.
Where did you get this page?
When I try to open exch.net, I get an error page saying the site is unavailable. As far as I can see, exch.cx is still redirected to the .pw domain and contains information that exch is shut down.

Now I'm not sure how to contact them further, whether the .cx domain and the associated email addresses are still under the control of the eXch team.

Where did you get this page?

- using onion link you can see seizurebanner.jpg

http://hszyoqwrcp7cxlxnqmovp6vjvmnwj33g4wviuxqzq47emieaxjaperyd.onion/


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: _act_ on May 09, 2025, 04:56:14 PM
It's truly sad to see exch.net, a pioneer in privacy-focused instant crypto exchanges, seized and shut down despite its important role in advancing anonymous transactions.
The law enforcement seized $38 million from exch and it was said to be connected to the Bybit hack. That means exch received the coins from the North Korean hackers but not did not process the transaction and hold it? Or the is just a lie from the prosecutors by seizing the coins from the exchange because we know that the exchange is having money on its own.


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: OmegaStarScream on May 09, 2025, 06:42:10 PM
The law enforcement seized $38 million from exch and it was said to be connected to the Bybit hack. That means exch received the coins from the North Korean hackers but not did not process the transaction and hold it? Or the is just a lie from the prosecutors by seizing the coins from the exchange because we know that the exchange is having money on its own.

From my understanding of the translated statement above (not sure if you read something else somewhere?) and from what I have seen before from ZachXBT and others on Twitter, I don't believe they ever froze any funds from Bybit hack. The seized money probably comes from the exchange's hot wallets (their liquidity pools) they used to process users transactions.


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: dkbit98 on May 09, 2025, 08:48:58 PM
It is much more profitable to be government this days, it pays of much more than doing any other business, easy profit from bunch of taxes, plus seizing crypto all the time.
Now they are going to apply their magic and make all that millions in crypto magically ''clean again''  ::)
This is blueprint for ''strategic reserves'', today eXch, tomorrow regular people.


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: un_rank on May 09, 2025, 09:16:52 PM
This is like chipmixer all over again. I had not directly used eXch, but bitcoin needs services like this to aid privacy and give users an outlet from having to trade on centralized platforms.

Here is the press release in German: https://www.presseportal.de/blaulicht/pm/7/6029813
I could damn well predict what the content will be before reading it.

- Jay -


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: Trêvoid on May 10, 2025, 06:05:55 AM
It's truly sad to see exch.net, a pioneer in privacy-focused instant crypto exchanges, seized and shut down despite its important role in advancing anonymous transactions.
The law enforcement seized $38 million from exch and it was said to be connected to the Bybit hack. That means exch received the coins from the North Korean hackers but not did not process the transaction and hold it? Or the is just a lie from the prosecutors by seizing the coins from the exchange because we know that the exchange is having money on its own.


North Korea Lazarus Group used a variety of laundering techniques, including sending stolen funds through numerous wallets, moving assets across blockchains, and using services like eXch to swap and anonymize the crypto.

Ref:
(https://www.elliptic.co/blog/bybit-hack-largest-in-history)
(https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/bybit-exchange-hack-february-2025-crypto-security-dprk)

Looks to me they did processed that funds.


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: Lucius on May 10, 2025, 11:01:28 AM
I find it very strange that the eXch was obviously very well informed about what was going to happen, and that they left so many funds behind even though they had plenty of time to put them away safely. In addition, I don't understand why they used servers in the EU at all, it doesn't make any sense to me considering that Germany and the Netherlands are very rigorous when it comes to things like this - this is not the first time they have carried out such actions.


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: Trêvoid on May 10, 2025, 06:24:27 PM
I find it very strange that the eXch was obviously very well informed about what was going to happen, and that they left so many funds behind even though they had plenty of time to put them away safely. In addition, I don't understand why they used servers in the EU at all, it doesn't make any sense to me considering that Germany and the Netherlands are very rigorous when it comes to things like this - this is not the first time they have carried out such actions.

For the servers in the EU (tough stance on cybercrime) to me also doesn't make sense.


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: hugeblack on May 10, 2025, 07:20:46 PM
~ 371 bitcoins were seized, and this may appear to be their reserves. The question is what they will do with this money: will they return it to byBit or sell it at auction?
+If this happened 10 days ago, why wait so long before announcing it?


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: Trêvoid on May 10, 2025, 07:33:40 PM
~ 371 bitcoins were seized, and this may appear to be their reserves. The question is what they will do with this money: will they return it to byBit or sell it at auction?
+If this happened 10 days ago, why wait so long before announcing it?

According to news seized funds have not yet been declared what to do like returned or auctioned; legal processes will determine their fate for sure.


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: Lucius on May 11, 2025, 11:09:36 AM
I find it very strange that the eXch was obviously very well informed about what was going to happen, and that they left so many funds behind even though they had plenty of time to put them away safely. In addition, I don't understand why they used servers in the EU at all, it doesn't make any sense to me considering that Germany and the Netherlands are very rigorous when it comes to things like this - this is not the first time they have carried out such actions.
For the servers in the EU (tough stance on cybercrime) to me also doesn't make sense.

If my memory serves me right, CM and some other mixers who suffered the same fate also had servers in the EU - so while I'm not saying it would have been better if they were located somewhere else, it might not have been so easy for those agencies to locate and seize them.

To me, it seems like an attempt to hide where you think they won't be looking for you, but they obviously haven't learned from the mistakes of others before them.


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: Trêvoid on May 12, 2025, 02:54:52 PM
I find it very strange that the eXch was obviously very well informed about what was going to happen, and that they left so many funds behind even though they had plenty of time to put them away safely. In addition, I don't understand why they used servers in the EU at all, it doesn't make any sense to me considering that Germany and the Netherlands are very rigorous when it comes to things like this - this is not the first time they have carried out such actions.
For the servers in the EU (tough stance on cybercrime) to me also doesn't make sense.

If my memory serves me right, CM and some other mixers who suffered the same fate also had servers in the EU - so while I'm not saying it would have been better if they were located somewhere else, it might not have been so easy for those agencies to locate and seize them.

To me, it seems like an attempt to hide where you think they won't be looking for you, but they obviously haven't learned from the mistakes of others before them.


Sure! Maybe they thought hosting there would give them better infrastructure or that authorities wouldn’t expect them to hide in such well-regulated places. But history shows that mixers sing EU servers often get caught anyway.


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: examplens on May 12, 2025, 07:26:35 PM
If my memory serves me right, CM and some other mixers who suffered the same fate also had servers in the EU - so while I'm not saying it would have been better if they were located somewhere else, it might not have been so easy for those agencies to locate and seize them.

To me, it seems like an attempt to hide where you think they won't be looking for you, but they obviously haven't learned from the mistakes of others before them.

It is not a big deal that at the time of starting these businesses, they are completely legal and run on legitimate hosting resources with good performance. Over time, the same business (mixers, no-kyc swap) becomes less legal and can easily be targeted from many sides, and then it will be too late to move to some more anonymous servers.
The whole thing about eXch escalated in two months, all after the Bybit hack.

Otherwise, will FIOD and BKA (whoever holds the confiscated coins) keep the entire amount, or will they forward Bybit his part and the claim bounty reward?


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: Darker45 on May 13, 2025, 01:19:38 AM
...seized and shut down despite its important role in advancing anonymous transactions.

It's not despite of but precisely because of "its important role in advancing anonymous transactions" that their site is seized. It's not like the authorities are shutting down something that's helping them implement the laws. They're shutting down something that's actually making their work hard. They don't like privacy and anonymity.

I'm surprised that despite eXch's claim that they have some friends in the intelligence sector, which precisely helped them decide to shut down their service in advance in a show of defensive move, there's still over 8 terabytes of data and €34 million left to be seized.

It made me curious. It doesn't even matter what these funds are for or these data are about, or whether they're incriminating or not. What's interesting is that they made their exit weeks ago and yet a considerable amount of data and a huge amount of money are still left when the authorities arrived.


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: LoyceV on May 13, 2025, 06:21:42 AM
Otherwise, will FIOD and BKA (whoever holds the confiscated coins) keep the entire amount, or will they forward Bybit his part and the claim bounty reward?
Bybit's hackers stole Ethereum (from their "cold" wallet....). One way or another, seized Bitcoin didn't come from them. Isn't that the whole idea of "taint", or can "taint" transfer to different blockchains now?


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: nonlogs on May 13, 2025, 06:48:57 AM
I find it very strange that the eXch was obviously very well informed about what was going to happen, and that they left so many funds behind even though they had plenty of time to put them away safely. In addition, I don't understand why they used servers in the EU at all, it doesn't make any sense to me considering that Germany and the Netherlands are very rigorous when it comes to things like this - this is not the first time they have carried out such actions.

I think they got the news early.


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: Orange89 on May 13, 2025, 06:51:43 AM
Otherwise, will FIOD and BKA (whoever holds the confiscated coins) keep the entire amount, or will they forward Bybit his part and the claim bounty reward?
Bybit's hackers stole Ethereum (from their "cold" wallet....). One way or another, seized Bitcoin didn't come from them. Isn't that the whole idea of "taint", or can "taint" transfer to different blockchains now?
Honestly these whole thing feel like watching the same movie over and over again
Another MIXER had goes down & another seizure get announced with fenfarbut yes
somehow these game is just keep going
The player had adapted the tools had get evolved and law enforcement scramble on them to catch up again

What I Really Find Interesting isn’t just how much money that is seized that's somewhere around €34 million well it's no joke bro it's huge money

but my curiosity why they left so much behind??
If they really know the heat was about to coming on them we do think that they at least move the money
Maybei  think it is not about being careless but maybe it’s about not want to raise any flags by suddenly shifting server or doing funds last minute.

As for now I think WHERE ALL THAT CRYPTO ENDS up now that’s one of  the real question
will Bybit Will Even Get A Slice?
Will Victims Ever See A Dime?
Or I think More likely it is just going to be disappearing into government vault or it can be gets quietly auctioned off under PoC till we see any real restitution


📌 More ever whatever happen
It is just a reminder for everyone again
if you are relying on centralized exchange for your privacy or being anonymous then you are always one raid away from exposure.

Keep all your wallet In Hardware or some Ledger or Hardware also
The government just wanted all of the control in everything  😫


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: Lucius on May 13, 2025, 01:15:23 PM
~snip~
I'm surprised that despite eXch's claim that they have some friends in the intelligence sector, which precisely helped them decide to shut down their service in advance in a show of defensive move, there's still over 8 terabytes of data and €34 million left to be seized.

It made me curious. It doesn't even matter what these funds are for or these data are about, or whether they're incriminating or not. What's interesting is that they made their exit weeks ago and yet a considerable amount of data and a huge amount of money are still left when the authorities arrived.


Is it possible that those 8 TB of data aren't actually data, but storage space - something similar to what happened in the case of CM? It might make sense that there is such a large amount of data, but why (and what) would a swap exchange store that takes up so much space?

My theory about the value of the cryptocurrencies that were seized is that they may have been left with the intention of leaving the people who ran the whole thing alone. It's nothing new, in a way a kind of deal for the authorities to get money in exchange for giving up persecution - and besides, I think the guys behind this project made a lot more than those 30+ million euros.


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: examplens on May 13, 2025, 07:37:18 PM
Bybit's hackers stole Ethereum (from their "cold" wallet....). One way or another, seized Bitcoin didn't come from them. Isn't that the whole idea of "taint", or can "taint" transfer to different blockchains now?
As far as I've noticed, Bybit's reward for discovered and frozen coins related to the hack has triggered various analysts and "so-called" blockchain forensics. They escalated the "taint" to almost all blockchains.
An example of them being incompetent, most of them persistently claim that eXch earned $40 million by swapping stolen coins. Which is impossible, because eXch took only a 0.5%-1% fee, and the amount of $40 million was eXch reserves that they had even before the Bybit hack.


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: LoyceV on May 13, 2025, 09:01:53 PM
They escalated the "taint" to almost all blockchains.
Does that mean the "taint" is removed from the original coin? Say someone has $1 million in "tainted" ETH, and exchanges it for $1 million in Bitcoin. Those Bitcoins are now owned by the bad guy, so they're tainted. But the ETH is now owned by someone else, even though it came directly from the hack. Are they no longer tainted? Or does the "taint" apply to $2 million in ETH and Bitcoin now?
This sounds a lot like magic!


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: examplens on May 13, 2025, 09:17:02 PM
Does that mean the "taint" is removed from the original coin? Say someone has $1 million in "tainted" ETH, and exchanges it for $1 million in Bitcoin. Those Bitcoins are now owned by the bad guy, so they're tainted. But the ETH is now owned by someone else, even though it came directly from the hack. Are they no longer tainted? Or does the "taint" apply to $2 million in ETH and Bitcoin now?
This sounds a lot like magic!
It spreads faster than the most dangerous infection.  :)
One of my addresses from which I recently received coins from exch is marked as compromised (at least that's what my exchanger called it  ::)) with all the coins on it. Most of the Bitcoins on it are from the long-ago famous hack.


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: CreepyUncleJoe on May 13, 2025, 10:49:09 PM
Is it possible that those 8 TB of data aren't actually data, but storage space - something similar to what happened in the case of CM? It might make sense that there is such a large amount of data, but why (and what) would a swap exchange store that takes up so much space?

Yes, the 8 TB is likely the total data cloned, as they probably performed a forensic copy, which clones the entire hard drive (bit-for-bit), including even the free space. All blockchains were probably included in that data. (How much space does just Ethereum take up?)


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: Darker45 on May 14, 2025, 04:35:35 AM
~snip~

Is it possible that those 8 TB of data aren't actually data, but storage space - something similar to what happened in the case of CM? It might make sense that there is such a large amount of data, but why (and what) would a swap exchange store that takes up so much space?

Your guess is as good as mine. By the way, are we now certain of what specific data were kept by CM and seized by the authorities? Surely, however, the 7 TB wasn't just empty storage space. It must be a combination of logs, keys, other historical data, copies of the blockchain, and whatnot.

Quote
My theory about the value of the cryptocurrencies that were seized is that they may have been left with the intention of leaving the people who ran the whole thing alone. It's nothing new, in a way a kind of deal for the authorities to get money in exchange for giving up persecution - and besides, I think the guys behind this project made a lot more than those 30+ million euros.

We can only speculate, but CM has also left $47 million in addition to the 7 TB of data. So far, I haven't heard of Minh Nguyen arrested. This is like a replay, although not involving a mixer anymore but only one that's mislabeled as such.


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: Lucius on May 14, 2025, 11:00:04 AM
~snip~
We can only speculate, but CM has also left $47 million in addition to the 7 TB of data. So far, I haven't heard of Minh Nguyen arrested. This is like a replay, although not involving a mixer anymore but only one that's mislabeled as such.


Recently, in the topic about mixers in the Meta board, someone confirmed that the person you mention is still at large - and as we can see, there are definitely some similarities between the two cases. Besides, those who launched an attack on eXch know who is behind the project - at least those who sent them a warning, right?


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: ethex on May 14, 2025, 04:49:20 PM
~snip~

Is it possible that those 8 TB of data aren't actually data, but storage space - something similar to what happened in the case of CM? It might make sense that there is such a large amount of data, but why (and what) would a swap exchange store that takes up so much space?

Your guess is as good as mine. By the way, are we now certain of what specific data were kept by CM and seized by the authorities? Surely, however, the 7 TB wasn't just empty storage space. It must be a combination of logs, keys, other historical data, copies of the blockchain, and whatnot.

Quote
My theory about the value of the cryptocurrencies that were seized is that they may have been left with the intention of leaving the people who ran the whole thing alone. It's nothing new, in a way a kind of deal for the authorities to get money in exchange for giving up persecution - and besides, I think the guys behind this project made a lot more than those 30+ million euros.

We can only speculate, but CM has also left $47 million in addition to the 7 TB of data. So far, I haven't heard of Minh Nguyen arrested. This is like a replay, although not involving a mixer anymore but only one that's mislabeled as such.

thats a good point but so you are saying minh nguyen could be exch? or his partner something? because as you said kind of replay


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: Darker45 on May 15, 2025, 03:44:57 AM
~snip~
We can only speculate, but CM has also left $47 million in addition to the 7 TB of data. So far, I haven't heard of Minh Nguyen arrested. This is like a replay, although not involving a mixer anymore but only one that's mislabeled as such.


Recently, in the topic about mixers in the Meta board, someone confirmed that the person you mention is still at large - and as we can see, there are definitely some similarities between the two cases. Besides, those who launched an attack on eXch know who is behind the project - at least those who sent them a warning, right?

..."similarities between the two cases" and perhaps other cases, too.

As claimed, they have friends in the intelligence sector. This is at most vague, of course. And it makes one curious. If they have deep connections, which kept them a couple of steps ahead, one wonders why they had to leave not crumbs but significant amounts of data and money to the authorities.

~snip~
Quote
~snip~
We can only speculate, but CM has also left $47 million in addition to the 7 TB of data. So far, I haven't heard of Minh Nguyen arrested. This is like a replay, although not involving a mixer anymore but only one that's mislabeled as such

thats a good point but so you are saying minh nguyen could be exch? or his partner something? because as you said kind of replay

No, I'm not saying that. And I don't think Nguyen is behind eXch, or who knows, but probably not. The "kind of replay" comment is in line with certain similarities between the two. Limited similarities, I have to emphasize. Both platforms are into privacy and anonymity. Both seized. Both yielded considerable amounts of money and data. Both involves no arrest.


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: Trêvoid on May 15, 2025, 05:17:18 AM
Is it possible that those 8 TB of data aren't actually data, but storage space - something similar to what happened in the case of CM? It might make sense that there is such a large amount of data, but why (and what) would a swap exchange store that takes up so much space?

Yes, the 8 TB is likely the total data cloned, as they probably performed a forensic copy, which clones the entire hard drive (bit-for-bit), including even the free space. All blockchains were probably included in that data. (How much space does just Ethereum take up?)

i believe it could be large blockchain data directories (if running full or archive nodes) such as deleted files, system files, application data and so on...


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: examplens on May 15, 2025, 10:32:55 AM
i believe it could be large blockchain data directories (if running full or archive nodes) such as deleted files, system files, application data and so on...

An Ethereum node alone is about 2 TB.

Even if there were wallets with all the coins on those servers, what is the probability that they were so unprotected and that some forensic expert managed to move them immediately?
Also, what is the probability that the eXch team did not have backups offline at another location?


Title: Re: German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) seized eXch
Post by: Trêvoid on May 15, 2025, 12:56:18 PM
i believe it could be large blockchain data directories (if running full or archive nodes) such as deleted files, system files, application data and so on...

An Ethereum node alone is about 2 TB.

Even if there were wallets with all the coins on those servers, what is the probability that they were so unprotected and that some forensic expert managed to move them immediately?
Also, what is the probability that the eXch team did not have backups offline at another location?


in my opinion, exch could have done offline backups at a separate locations as part of standard opsec procedures. Because from all the projects that currently active or exist on Bitcointalk I can surely say that eXch is the only one that has decent opsec.

as im not mistaking they were using remote encrypted HDD unlock via SSH (all disks are encrypted), they can easily determine if some fed is trying to get their encryption key given it's only possible with a reboot or shutdown of server when its on a dedicated server.

with this setup, unless the encryption key is already compromised or someone has SSH access, a forensic expert cannot managed to access and move the coins immediately.