Bitcoin Forum

Since I’ve been seeing more and more threads about sports betting, let’s talk about ATS (Against The Spread) for a bit.

For you guys, which side of the ATS do you usually feel more confident with? Like that gut feeling of, "this side is the winning side"

Technically, ATS is a 50-50 game, bookies make sure of that. But of course, the odds are usually around 1.85 to 1.90, so you’re not getting your full bet back. That means you don’t need to win 100% of the time (thankfully!), but you probably need to hit over 52% and have good bankroll discipline to make it work in the long run.

So, it's a game of brains, not just having fun..

Really this is the first time hearing this, although I may have hard or know this form of game's or betting methods in another form but with the ATS formula that you explain, I will have to do a deeper search to know more, but what is confusing is why do you say when bookie's give out 1.85 odds or even a 1.90odds it means you ant getting your full vet back, because having such an odds and winning the game, it means you should at least get up to 85% or even a 90% profits in those bets.

Anyone I see that track ATS records in before betting is an OG in sports betting. That person knows their stuff and are smart. As for me I am barely concerned about this, I usually feel it make it complicated for me. I just want to know whose the underdog and bet against the favorite. While at some other times, I just want to go the moneyline route. ATS are for very strong and experienced bettors.

That’s the usual odds for point spreads and even totals. But in bigger sportsbooks, the standard is often 1.90. So when we win, we only get 90% back, the other 10%? That’s their “juice,” aka the house’s cut. That’s how they keep their business going.

And just to clear things up, ATS isn’t a betting strategy. It’s a betting option, like how we also have totals, moneyline, player props, etc.
It’s just one of the many ways to place your bet… and stress over it later.

Relax buddy what he meant is you don't need to win all of the bet to be on profit because there is no guarantee you can win so. One thing is sure, which is the possibility of making more than 60% if you are a gambler that prefers profiting in long term, and will be willing to stick to that pattern during this period. Let's do a quick math. If you bet 5 games with close range odds of 1.90 or 1.86. If win 3 games and lost 2 you are in profit. Do it like that 3 times in a day you will sure be in profit.

What do you mean "which side of the ATS do you usually feel more confident with?" Are you referring to the - and + side or the laying and getting side, respectively?

I think it's still a matter of which teams are playing. In the end, it all still boils down to what the teams are capable of, although the unique thing with ATS betting is that you have to analyze further and correctly predict the point spread. Otherwise, betting on the loser might be wiser.

For me, though, I usually just go with handicaps if moneyline isn't worth it.

That’s not really true.. what you’re seeing with the (+/-) points on your bookie is called ATS or Against the Spread. It’s not that complicated if you understand the basics of sports betting.

What can get tricky is when you start digging into the ATS stats to analyze a game. That’s where it gets a bit nerdy.

But good news is we’ve got a free site that helps with that:
here ----  https://www.teamrankings.com

It’s been shared before, and honestly, super useful if you’re trying to make smarter picks.

yeah that's what I meant.


Of course, this stuff matters, but on average, which side do you usually prefer?

Like, let’s say you made 100 bets in a month, where did most of them go? Are you more of a favorite bettor? Or do you like rolling with the underdogs?

Just curious which side you find yourself leaning on more often.

Where I decide to bet has many factors. Home or away game, teams record at home, record away, record ATS, injuries, record against opponent in regular season/playoffs etc...

For example, tonight the Indiana Pacers played the Cleveland Cavaliers in Cleveland. Indiana leads the series 3-1 so 1 more win and they move on to the next round. Indiana had a 3-1 record in the regular season vs Cleveland as well. The Cavs big star Donovan Mitchell got injured last game and played tonight, but I didn't think he would be 100%. Cleveland was an 8.5 point favorite. Easy money taking Pacers +8.5. FYI I took Indiana ML and got 3.5 odds which is much better than the spread would have paid.

You have lots to weigh when thinking spread is all I am saying. Games are closer in playoffs as well, so taking points is IMO the best play.

Good analysis! I think as long as we follow the trend, we’re in a good spot. I also made a profit betting on the Pacers ML, but took a loss with the Nuggets. Had a parlay on both underdogs too.

Still ended up in the green though, thanks to the Pacers’ high odds - Great win.

For tomorrow, I’m eyeing the Knicks since they’re the underdog. I heard Tatum had surgery, so the Celtics might be playing without their best player in a do-or-die game. That’s a big deal, and might be worth taking a shot on the Knicks.

You get 85% to 90% if you have a 100% winning rate.
If you only have a 50% winning rate, it means you bet 20 units and you get back 19 units, so you lose 5% on every bet!
If you have a 60% winning rate, you bet 20 units, you get back 22.8 so you're in a profit of 10%.


It's not that complicated, it's basically the usual handicap but selecting the closest matching odds.
If you feel like taking Minnesota tonight at -11.5 is too little for the risks and want to play it safer,  go for -6.5 that's at 1.4 right now.

I usually don't focus on point spread due to the risks involved in it but if I just want throw money away I just pick the underdogs ATS. But it's all just for the purpose of having fun, I don't take it seriously because I know that the outcome might be a disaster. 1.85 to 1.90 odds are decent odds if you are deciding to pick the favorites, it's not always compulsory to aim for 100 percent of your stake, a win is a win.

I cannot remember exactly, but for some reasons it seems I'm naturally more attracted to + than -. I don't really have a stat for this, but it seems I don't feel comfortable betting on a team that lays away. If I do it, I usually limit the spread to around -5.5. On the contrary, if I do it with +, I can do all the way to +10.5, +15.5, and above. I don't know why. Perhaps it's psychological.

However, again, I'm not really into strictly ATS betting. I'm not after the 50:50 odds. I usually just take advantage of the available handicap in the market and even take the extreme + regardless of the odds. Perhaps I'm too cautious. 1.60 or 1.70 or around that is good enough for me.

For me, recently, I have mostly used the favorites.
I prefer backing the stronger teams, more consistent teams that are expected to win. With reliable players, better coaching, and usually more to play for.

Sometimes the spreads might be a bit inflated, but I'll take the steady edge that comes with the talent gap and experience.

I always say that maths don`t lie. But here i disagree. In my practice, i mostly made bets with odds 2+(and tried to bet 3+). It means that i can have win rate 50%. But the problem that in such situation i will not lose. It is not enough as for me. In my calculations, comfortable odds were 2+ with win rate 55+.
Everybody has his own strategy and risk management, i can`t say that my decision was right - it was comfortable for me and it works with my analyze.

I feel like I am a favorite bettor, so I feel like I often choose to bet on the favorite, in other words trusting the one that seems to have a greater chance of winning, because I usually feel more comfortable and safe to place that bet. However, even so, it doesn't mean that I never bet on the underdog. So it's all about analysis, or feeling, or whatever you feel like doing in betting, and I feel like I can't just trust it, because it's all about luck, even for anything luck is the main key in my opinion.

In my opinion, players who can accurately predict the deviation of a sporting event outcome from the spread are the elite of players who bet on sports.

If a player is able to accurately predict the outcome of a sporting event, then (to be honest) it is unlikely to surprise anyone. Many sports fans who are very knowledgeable about a particular sport and know the strengths and weaknesses of each sports team are capable of such actions.

But accurately predicting the deviation of a sporting event outcome from the spread is not something every player can do! Such predictions are, figuratively speaking, “the highest level of skill”.

I would never risk claiming that I can successfully practice Against the Spread.

I'd always go with the favorites if there's not enough information to rely on, but when I see underdogs with a decent record of covering spreads, i'll give them a chance or two to see if they're worth following before the bookies start adjusting their points on the future matches.

My previous experience encouraged me to lean on the favorites more since I tried an underdog strategy a few times before, and it gave me one of the longest droughts I couldn't forget.

Depending on point spread value and the team involved but mist of the time I choose the underdog point spread especially high point spread because a high lead game usually bench players consume the remaining time.

Bench players of losing team usually very eager to show off to cut the lead so point spread gap becomes lesser to easily cover my + spread.

I have winning percentage on underdog compared to favorites when it comes to point spread betting.

I don't pick point spread options but if I'm to choose from any of them I would go with the favorite instead of picking th underdogs...I prefer to bet strategically even though the game doesn't go according to plan, betting isn't always meant to be successful anyways... going for the underdogs is too much risk, it doesn't mean that they don't have a possibility or chance of winning but I don't go with it based on my preference.

I prefer to bet on football if it is not casino games. I think the spread bet means handicap right? In football +2 for the strong team while -2 for the underdog is the very common one. I have bet on this before but I do not bet on it anymore. I prefer to go for win instead but sometimes I consider going for win or draw but which its odd is too low and discouraging which makes me not go for such most time.

Also I prefer favorite teams than going for underdogs, although their odds are always small.

The odds here are never really “small” since we’re talking about point spreads. That means you’re getting either a plus or a minus, but the odds usually sit around 1.90 on both sides.

So expecting the favorites to win? Totally valid, they do win most of the time.
But here’s the real question: do they cover the spread most of the time?

That’s where it gets tricky. They might win the game, but not by enough points to make your wallet happy.

I do not know if you asked me this question but if you asked me, I do not bet on spread but I just go for 1x2 instead. Instead of going for spread, I will prefer to go for over 2.5 but which would be of small odd if compared to spread. I think some people can prefer to go for spread of some clubs that are really scoring like Barcelona is playing against an underdog but that is not how I bet.

The reply was for you, since you commented earlier about point spreads, but your post was actually about 1x2 or moneyline bets.  So technically, this thread isn’t really your lane, and maybe it’s best to sit this one out if you're not discussing the actual topic. No hard feelings, just keeping it on track..

There's another topic about moneyline betting.

0 Betting on Moneyline - underdog or favorites?
 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5543276.)