Bitcoin Forum

First, thank you for those of you who have provided a ton of information in this forum to noobs like myself. I appreciate it.

I am new to BitCoin, I believe in it as the technology and economics of it are sound (limited quantity, decentralized, etc). I also recently purchased about 10 BitCoins at $600.

From what I gather the price is going to fluctuate and be volatile for obvious reasons. More so than other commodities as the supply of bitcoin is fixed and the price is fully dependent on demand.  

Now my question:

In the foreseeable future. What are the factors/predictions to drive these forum predicted prices like $10000 or drop to sub-$100?

From what I gather things like the below are correct. What are your thoughts or opinions? or am i missing something obvious?

My guess is something like technology that increase the usability of bitcoin which will allow for rapid adoption. Or a large company like Google or Bank announcing support. (though if that was the case why did Stripe adoption not drive the price up? or did it with this past temporary bump?)

As for drop, If the major holders of bitcoin sell a lot (though this seems odd as with the quanities they hold it would be hard to find buyers for that many without massively dropping the price) and in that matter I still see minor holders keeping what they have.  

-- I wanted to add clarification to my question, I am not asking for speculation. I am asking what examples can you provide which would affect the price. Outside of the few thoughts I had.

 

So you want just theory speaks? :) Most of discussions about the price tomorrow are speculations. Nobody cannot say what will happen.

Sure it, there is always going to be a price drop when:
1. Some country "ban" some sectors for bitcoin
2. Some big exchange hacked
3. Dumping

and price will get ++ value when more people will join Bitcoin - yes.
This is a law of a market. More want to buy, less want to sell? :) Price up up and away :)

The only thing that is going to increase the price, is people buying bitcoin.  But they aren't doing that.  That's why you see no jump in price with the Stripe news, and continued price falling even with the TON of merchant integration since the $1200 mark.  People can't spend what they don't have and people are afraid of bitcoin.  Now the IRS has basically destroyed any near-term chance at bitcoin being used as a currency.  So what would make it go up to $10,000?  A miracle. What would make it drop to sub-100?  Everything you see happening now.

The only thing that can push price up is if BTC people need/want BTC and the demand exceeds the supply so they have to pay for it.  Bitcoin is a open source protocol like bit torrent.  There might be companies making money providing Bitcoin services but the BTC itself has no intrinsic value.  Its not even a currency more of a commodity. 

Global economic instability or even simply escalating uncertainty may drive the next rally.

I hope Bitcoin succeeds without that.

What drives rapid change with Bitcoin?
Prices are way too high (based on speculation) and another sharp drop is coming.
or
Bitcoin has a small supply and growing demand so the price will rise.

Supply of bitcoin is self stabilized by number of miners (number of miners is stabilized by actual price). But it is not the main reason of rapid changes.

Bitcoin price is almost entirely driven by speculators. Whenever there is a sudden increase in the amount of speculators (via the news/hype cycle or new exchanges in foreign countries) or an increase in the money flow pipeline (via new exchanges and payment methods) so that speculators can bring more of their money into bitcoin, the price increases.

Rapid drops occur when new speculators and new money is entering at such a high rate that it causes a bubble which reaches a critical mass and then bursts. Drops also occur when market sectors (china, russia) and exchanges (mtgox) LEAVE the system or when the fundamentals of bitcoin are threatened.

Rapid change in price comes from media attention.

Sustainable change in price comes from bitcoin adoption (usage).

The only thing that is going to increase the price, is people buying bitcoin.  But they aren't doing that.  That's why you see no jump in price with the Stripe news, and continued price falling even with the TON of merchant integration since the $1200 mark.  People can't spend what they don't have and people are afraid of bitcoin.  Now the IRS has basically destroyed any near-term chance at bitcoin being used as a currency.  So what would make it go up to $10,000?  A miracle. What would make it drop to sub-100?  Everything you see happening now.
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Would you please get off this IRS impacts bitcoin rubbish - those of us who are not American and don't live in the US don't give a flying feck what the IRS say.

Also just to get some facts down - the IRS 1099 form only applies to corporates not to individuals , so individuals do not have to account for each individual bitcoin transaction.  If they make gains on their bitcoin they should be paying either income tax or capital gains tax anyway - that doesn't change.

As for corporates who "receive" bitcoin via bitpay or another payment processor, their gains are zero as they never actually receive the bitcoin , bitpay just give them cash - now bitpay might have to do some extra work - but that's why they are in business anyway.