Bitcoin Forum

So, I'm new to bitcoin :) Was looking at getting a new ButterflyLabs Monarch 300GH/s card. I started using some calculators at bitwisdom and others. Seems that with the historical increases in difficulty and the cost of new hardware that it's going to be nigh impossible to make any profit from mining. The rate of difficulty increasing seems to be averaging 20%. The newest rate increase was estimated at 15.2%. But still...According to the calculator I'm going to make nowhere near even covering the hardware costs of $1497. How can anyone make a profit unless they are already established with hardware? There can be some profit it seems if you buy the hardware when it immediately becomes available, but by itself with no other hardware, because of the increasing difficulty, you're just not going to reach profitability. Is everyone hoping that bitcoin is going to reach some astronomical high, like +$1500BTC/$? While not unthinkable it hasn't happened yet? What factors are people betting on that will increase the value of BTC/$?

Am I looking at this right? Barring all extreme scenarios, like it bitcoin were to shoot through the roof in value or the difficulty were to drop dramatically or some long-term DDoS attack were to happen to the incumbents, if I were to start mining today, would it be possible to mine enough bitcoin that it'd even be worth it? Am I looking at the numbers right?

Hash rate: 300GH/s
Hardware price: $1497
Watts: 175
Electricity price: $0.15/kWh
Current bitcoin value: $423.99/BTC

Difficulty increment: 20%
Pool fee: 2%

It seems that the time period that had the potential to do mining of any significance, like to buy hardware with your earnings and have a doubling effect, has passed.

Well perhaps this is not bad. But haven't you though about Gridseed?

BFL is mining with them and delaying shipments, as long as it's worthwhile. You're financing their mining hardware and once the party is over, you'll get some overpriced and used hardware. The difficulty increase rate will slow down, once the new asic miner generation is delivered, but it's very unlikely, that you'll ever reach ROI with it.

In April 2015 you should be happy to mine 0,3% of the amount of bitcoins you mine today (with the same hardware).

For $1500, you can get 3 Antminer s'1s and the needed PSU's. That's 600 gh/s (assuming you OC each to 200 gh/s, normally at 180) But I personally believe that mining is profitable if these two conditions are satisfied:

1. You are willing to go big.
2. Can't stay still, must continually add hardware and replace older hardware. Difficulty wont stand still, and neither should you. (Made that up right now, what do you think xD)

You've forgotten vat and import taxes. A good quality 500+W PSU will cost you at least 60$ (unless you want to burn your home). You'll also need a second fan to keep your oc'ed Antminer S1 below 50°C (around 15$).

It may be profitable, if there will be a big rise in the price for bitcoins.
But if it continues to drop like a rock, you'll most likely never ROI.

Oops forgot, I'm in US, I don't have to worry about VAT and import tax. Plus you don't need a second fan per se. Also, you can lease your rigs out and when not on  contract mine a multipool.

Yes you already ran the numbers and could see for yourself, the days of making ROI, much less profit, back in a month or two are over. Only get into mining when the miner is IN HAND when you part your money BEFORE everyone else get theirs, otherwise, you'll always be behind the curve

Yes, hot summer days will be no problem, if your OC'ed Antminer S1 is working in a climated or cold room.

You can do the math, if and when your mining will be profitable: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/
(just make sure to use the most recent profitability decline per year: 0.0013)

Definitely a great idea. That way your money will be sitting in BFL's bank while you wait several months for your hardware. In the meantime, the rest of us miners will be mining away on hardware that is much cheaper and more profitable.

In other words, you'd have to be an idiot to order from BFL.

It didn't occur to me that ButterflyLabs was also mining...arghh. It seems like the Antminser S1 has the best H/s/$. Still though it feels now as if these are just scraps. The curve seems to be almost created by the hardware makers because they can get their hardware so much more cheaply reaching ROI before anyone else. Unless you're a hardware maker you're going to be fighting the curve..

Yeah but here is the thing, hardware makers are in some muddy fuckin' waters, and if they want to hedge against the bitcoin risk, and they are a large enough operation, provided they believe in BTC longterm, they will need a better way to get fiat out of the system than dumping on exchanges.  That's where selling hardware to nerds like us comes in.

The best part is, there are so many damn ASIC makers, and the people who are even remotely serious about this do their fucking homework.  We are getting harder and harder to rip off, which is forcing these companies to actually compete.  I don't think the majority of the community would fall victim to BFL three times over, for instance.  People are learning their lesson, and companies have given time to prove themselves, or to not prove themselves.  For instance, I don't think a single person would order from Hashfast right now, but so long as Bitmain and a couple semi-notable others keep delivering, we will keep buying until someone else dethrones them.

And who knows, the competition could grow to a point where these companies actually offer customer service that isn't the worst thing in the world.  They might offer cloudhashing during all the days your warranty replacement is occurring.  There are still lots of companies that can step up to the plate to be competitive, but the more saturated the market becomes, the more disincentivized entrepreneurs are to jump into the game.

That said, to answer your original question, its almost always a better "investment" to just buy the coin, but as others have mentioned, where the hell is the fun in that :P? hehehe.

Neither premise makes any sense. There is no economy of scale unless you manage to negotiate a significant volume discount. That aside, if 100 machines are profitable, then so is one machine. Scaling up just scales up your costs and revenue linearly.

As for continually adding and replacing hardware, again that makes no sense. "Adding hardware" is just like above, either your miners are profitable or they arent, but adding more isnt going to change a thing. Likewise, replacing your miners isnt going to help, its just a different purchase decision that by itself may or may not make sense, but has no impact on your previous purchase decisions.

One machine is indeed profitable, but not for long. That's why you need to go big, as you are ALWAYS behind the curve as difficulty is always going up, usually by at least by 15% on average. That is why your always behind the curve, even if the hardware is in hand from the manufacturer, unless your a hardware maker.

What do you guys think of the TerraMiner IV? I have quite a few available for delivery within 3 days. The increased hash rate and the fact that these rigs are scarce, yet incredibly advanced, gives anyone willing to make the investment a significant edge over the rest of competition in the mining space.

Please feel free to message me for a quote or if you have any questions. You can also visit our website: CognitiveCapital.co for more information. We are currently the only firm with this hardware ready to deliver. Bulk orders and pricing available. Delivery in 3 days. Orders can't currently be made on our website (its in beta) but I am authorized to sell rigs on their behalf for lower than the price advertised on their website.

Ross G. Rauschenbach
Sales Associate
Cognitive Capital

Well considering that You could get 4 antminer s2's for the same price...... That's double the hash for the same price. Plus bitmain stuff usually in-hand, right now they're out of stock.

I have bulk availability of TerraMinerIV's on hand right now. Order today, receive three days later. Three months from now when that antiminer is available you'll need double the hash rate, because everyone that ordered from me will basically get a head start.

Ninjatech, 112 bit, etc. All have antminers IN-HAND. Nuff said.

According to a profitability analysis I just conducted on Coinwarz, the TerraMinerIV is 20x more efficient than the Bitmain Antminer Dual Blade S1, yielding 0.2 BTC per day vs. 0.01 BTC per day. The Antiminer is available from their website right now for $786.00 each. In order to match the output of the TerraMinerIV you would need to order 12 Antiminers which would cost roughly $9800. I can beat that price, plain and simple. Please message me if anyone wants more information or a quote.

Ross G. Rauschenbach
Sales Associate
Cognitive Capital

The Antminer S1 is 0.893 BTC or $400 at current BTC price.  The Antminer S1 can be overclocked to 200 GH/s easily.

The Cointerra TerraminerIV isn't 2 TH/s it's actually like 1.5-1.6 TH/s on a good day.  It's retail price is $6000

So 8 Antminer S1s would equal or exceed the TerraminerIV at a price of $3200+PSU's.

If electrical costs and power isn't an issue, it's a no brainer.  Antminer wins going away.

Even with electricity, it wouldn't matter. With antminers $/gh/s of 2 with the s1's (assuming antminers are $400 and hash rate is 200 gh/s) and a $/gh/s of 3 for the s2(assuming hash has 10% OC, making it 1100 gh/s and price is $3600) Really is no brainer. The only company that competes in $/gh/s is Black Arrow, but they aren't the most reliable on shipping on time.....

It retails at $6000 for a pre-order which won't be delivered for 2-3 months at least. I can express deliver and allow you to start mining now, hence the added cost for our rigs. Price is negotiable, especially for bulk orders.

Where are you getting your hash rate figures? A 500 GH hole is pretty big. Could you explain where you got that data because I feel its inaccurate. No offense or anything, I just believe in my product.

Cointerra haven't addressed this issue yet:

cointerra.com/update-engineering-production-status/ (http://cointerra.com/update-engineering-production-status/)

Believe an upcoming firmware is supposed to fix this issue....or not.   :P

Most of the forum posters here report back with around 1.4 TH/s - 1.6TH/s mostly.  Search around here, you'll see I'm right.

Don't believe in your product too much, it undelivers hashing power and overdelivers watts at the wall!   ;D

It'd be nice if I lived next to a stream of water so I could get the hydroelectric off of it. I do have a creek next to me, hmmmm.

I'd believe the benefits of cheap/free electricity wouldn't justify the costs of building an hydroelectric dam.... Plus there's legal laws?

Right ;) I was just kidding because of all of the talk about electric costs. But, I guess things like this are actually considered in this forum.

I have just been authorized to go significantly lower on pricing per unit. And I do mean significant. My firm has units on hand ready to ship. No failed deliveries. No delays. We can provide proof of our actual holding of units and are willing to take payments in escrow to gain some trust in the market. We completely understand the fears of buyers right now given all the failed promises, but I can assure you my firm is ready to roll.

Ross G. Rauschenbach
Sales Associate
Cognitive Capital LLC
(832)573-2372

If one machine is profitable, then so are 100. And vice versa.


Going big changes nothing (as an asic customer). Or almost nothing, I dont know what kind of volume discounts asic manufacturers give, but thats the only thing that changes. Actually, the opposite is true, if you go *really* big, you start competing with yourself. Theoretically 1 miner might be profitable, but under the same circumstances, 10000 may no longer be. If you cant see that, just calculate the ROI on 1 billion of whatever theoretically profitable miner.

Yes I know, but you have to factor in the increasing difficulty. That one machine doesn't stay profitable for too long does it?

Based on feedback I was getting from you all on the forums, I requested my boss to give me a lower price floor. Much more competitive pricing is available now for single units or bulk orders, ready to be shipped today. I'm getting a picture of some of our stock from our warehouse guy with proof that its real pic today, so hopefully that will stop all the skepticism. I know most people over promise and under deliver but that's not how I do business.

Ross G. Rauschenbach
Sales Associate
Cognitive Capital LLC
(832)573-2372

Profit is not possible if you start mining now it will take some time to get profit.