Bitcoin Forum

I’m starting to think this whole “skillful trading” thing is a myth—charts, indicators, “alpha” whispers… it all feels like smoke and mirrors. One minute you’re convinced your TA is bulletproof, the next you’re underwater because some pump-and-dump bot jacked the price. Feels like half the volumes are bots and the other half are FOMO maniacs hitting “buy” on whatever ticker looks shiny.

So get this—I stumbled on a tool called randombag that literally picks you a random basket of tokens from a curated trend list and buys them for you with one click. No research, no DD, no strategy—just pure randomness. And some users swear it actually outperforms their painstaking analysis but who knows if it also smoke.

Makes me wonder: in a market this rigged and noisy, is randomness the ultimate hedge? Has anyone here ever tried a dartboard approach—just throwing capital at random coins—and come out ahead? Or are we all fools chasing unicorns while a monkey with a dart could do just as well? Keen to hear your war stories or data if you’ve tried pure chance over “skill.”

Hey, when it comes to altcoin investments, there is no one that is so perfect at it to tell you the choice of coins that will do well when you invest into them. Most of them are just trials and errors and some investors of altcoins believe if you diversify in buying most of them, luck might find you to be lucky that few of them gets to pump and you make money from them.

Those bots may get to know coins that will perform after receiving analysis of their market conditions and project map, but can a bit also know if a project team want to rug pull its investors,? No it won’t, so that makes even such bot not 100% to be trusted in picking the best altcoin to invest into.

The truth about altcoins that is preached in reality is that you should only invest what you can afford to lose in them and not put all your money in them hoping to get good returns. Research also works here to minimise loss in the choice of coin selected to invest into, some could do well but you need to research well about it.

It is quite risky and can lead to regret. FOMO can drive us to anxiety for some immediate action, without any research, just the certainty that any coin can reach high gains as long as the purchase is made as quickly as possible.
I think altseasons are governed by certain narratives absorbed by a part of the market, which leads a series of projects to stand out more than others. In 2021/2022, DeFi took over due to attractive passive income proposals, leading tokens to explosive valuations (and million-dollar thefts through vulnerabilities in their protocols).
The next altseason seems to count again on DeFi, maybe with greater focus on those offering liquidity to large traditional institutions, with low fees and interoperability across different blockchains. I believe that DeSci and DePin are also interesting narratives due to their applicability to "real" problems and mass adoption.
I’m not sure if your intention is about quick trades or longer-term holding; in any case, I suggest looking for reasonably reliable sources where you can update yourself on the most disruptive developments in the market and navigate projects until some of them convince you through their narrative to the point that holding is not such a strenuous task.
DeFis can be interesting in this respect because of passive income, which would guarantee you some immediate return and a gradual reduction of exposure to risk. DePin projects with a large user base may offer a higher probability of organic growth and sustainable long-term appreciation. There are DeSci projects already showing good results in the search for new ways to deal with pathogens, projects that can even be directly invested in via their own tokens on launchpads such as Bio.
In short, value your hard-earned money and position it in the best possible way, as we may be facing a strong altseason.

It's more of a big gamble than just strategy. Instead of buying tokens, why not just play some slot games? I mean, you want randomness, right? Try slot games and after many tries come tell us what the outcome will be?
Obviously, there are very many chance that you are still going to lose out. There are so many shitcoins out there and they always just die. Maybe that's what you want? A portfolio of dead coins?

The concept of using bots to predict potential altcoins also has its own risk as most coins are created for the purpose of rug pull so it's best you invest with the mindset that nothing is promised for altcoins as there are no fundamentals for this coins but also a possibility of making 10x or even 20x with the right information. It's consistency can be debated so the analysis of how and what time to buy couldn't be fully evaluated.

Technical analysis is only one form of analysis. You also have on-chain analysis, fundamental analysis and sentiment analysis. Your TA might be perfect, but an on-chain, fundamental or sentiment shift can easily invalidate it. It also depends on what pair you are trading, some pairs are flawed by default due to their tokenomics (ties into fundamentals).

Doing no research is not a better strategy than doing research, that's nonsense ::)

It sounds like a strategy to lose all your money  ;D buying tokens randomly is definitely a bad idea. But I agree with you in that charts, indicators and a lot of alpha are usually bs and don't have anything based in reality backing them up. People will point to a chart and claim whatever the chart shows is guarantees that it will go up, that's nonsense. At the end of the day nothing is better than doing your own due diligence, educate yourself so you can make the right decision instead of trusting these influencers trying to scam you.

Is that really a strategy? I don’t think so, you just investing blindly hoping to be lucky to make profit in a coin, but I will say that’s completely rubbish. With the number of altcoins we have in the market currently, and more are still entering the market, why won’t you do your research before entering anyone, why will you just choose randomly, it doesn’t make sense.

We all know how risky altcoin investment is, even if you decide to do your research, you might still end up investing in wrong coin, then come to think of you choosing coins randomly, you should know you just going to be wasting your money, because you hardly going to be making any profit.

I will recommend you stay away from altcoin investment if you can.  just focus on bitcoin, and if you really having the intention to invest in altcoins, then do your research and choose strong altcoins in the market, and leave just little amount of money in them, because their is no assurance in bitcoin, you can easily lose when you invest in altcoins.

It's important to understand that a strategy has a structured foundation, meaning you must complete step 1 before moving on to step 2. If you buy randomly, you're definitely gambling, with uncertain profit probabilities.

The real problem isn't that complex strategies are ineffective, but rather that you're overly insistent on complex methods. Not all trading strategies need to be implemented, simply choose the ones that best suit your needs. Trading strategies are designed to meet the needs of traders, not the other way around.

Whenever you are buying altcoins most especially those in the memecoins categories, you should know that you are gambling with the money and at that, no matter the level of the analysis of the market you do before buying them you will still have to have high luck to see the market go in your favor, because of altcoins high volatilities, So you seems to be gambling whenever you buy them and that high risk volatilities makes a mess of whatever strategy you use in buying those coins.

Checking the name of the platform, you’ll still have to use your option on what to choose based on the choices this random bag platform wants to offer; it may be called random bag, but they still have a criterion for a project to get in the system, if there is none; then, people will lose interest in this platform.

If you choose this option, you should still use your common sense and analysis; if you do not, then you are essentially throwing your money away.
You’ll get better if you practice your common sense and analysis in all your investments, rather than just closing your eyes and picking things.

Well, if by doing a research it's already a challenge to profit from this volatile and speculative market, now imagine not applying any strategies at all. I believe it's similar to gambling: results on long run are already bad when applying strategies, but much worse if none strategies are applied at all. So, don't neglect doing your own research. At least by doing so you are going to raise your chances of avoiding the worse coins, in an attempt to focus on the promising ones.

It's not guarantee of success, but you can definitely increase your chances. And in case you aren't comfortable with this situation, why to invest in altcoins, then? Probably you should be directing your money to more solid investments where you don't have to rely on luck or randomness to thrive.

Nope.

Me, I did this and guess what? I've just thrown a lot of $10, $20 to $100 of bucks to random altcoins that I thought will also get up if the altcoin season comes but, none of them got me even a breakeven.

Maybe, it's really hard to spot some good projects and it's better to go sluggish and lower returns with the established ones.

Investing blindly is never been considered to be strategy but rather it is that a pure gamble and this should be that put up into your mind. Never ever trying out to have those kind of approach at the time that you do deal up with token investment or with some altcoins on which this could cause up that huge impact at the time that you would be having that loses with those token investment. Although its never been that a guaranteed thing even if you do make out some analysis but it is that much more better approach rather than on making yourself that making up some blind investment on which just like been said that it is just that still similar to gambling on this case and also its not a the right way on making up some investment on which you do need up to apply some analysis and research before doing it out. No one likes on losing money and we've been trying out to deal into this market just because we do want to have that potential profit on which of course its not guaranteed but its not impossible if you do know on what you are that doing.

You should know on what you are that doing at the time that you would be making up some investment and you cant just that make yourself that making up some blind buying with those altcoins. If we do consider on how many altcoins that we do have in the market then it would be that so hard on taking up some choices and this is where risks factor and management would matter on this case. Strategy will differ into each trader because we do have that different level when it comes to skills and knowledge towards this space and you cant just that make yourself that easily make up some choices without having any in depth reasearch on things. Make sure that you are fully aware on what are the actions that you should gonna take and also take up some back up plans if ever you would be facing up some loses.

It's crazy what altcoin do to people's money and it's unfair to attack a random market with a random strategy. Give it time, watch closely which category of coins worked over the past few years and play around with their offsprings. Bad developers always come up with similar ugly looking type of sh*t because that's who they are.

Their work wouldn't come close to the catch on authenticity that accompanies a genuine project just by going through the structures and systems, or the team work force. By the way, the investor shouldn't rush the task, out there in the market exist quality altcoins qualified for investment, and unfortunately, a fast random process may never land to it, luck quite would, until then it's a gamble.

Fundamental analysis is still important, there are tons of altcoins out there and 99% are just plain shit coin.
You'd only have 1% chance of making it and create profit out of all those thousands of altcoins.

But with fundamental analysis you can increase the odd. You can try yourself investing randomly into shitcoin, find out which one make money, there's big chance you'd be losing by randomly investing into all of them.

I rather sounds like a way to gamble away one's money, though.
It is true that the market of alt coins is very unpredictable, but that does not mean some technical analysis won't help one to take good choice when picking up tokens with actual potential.
Let us not forget there are a lot of scams out there in this market and just randomly choosing tokens and coins with no research would be the equivalent of giving your money to scammers and fraudsters.
Do your own research and at least take a look at the token distribution and the roadmap of the project you are staking your money at.

Completely randomly? Definitely no! There are more than 4 million tokens, and if you invested in 99.99% of them you would have lost money! A couple of years ago there was someone who gave up on picking tokens and just bought top 100 listed on Coingecko if I remember correctly. He was doing fine for a while, I don't know if there is an update on that. Anyhow, randomly is a bad idea.

it’s all just high-risk betting in disguise.
Bots can read charts, but not team intentions - rugs don’t show up in TA.

In a market this wild, randomness isn’t worse than “research.” Just don’t bet more than you can lose.

Totally fair- blindly picking from 4M tokens is suicide.  ::)

But if you limit “random” to top-trending, active projects with real volume?
At that point, you’re basically doing what most retail does — just without the illusion of control.

Of course not? I mean what kind of question is this? Just discussion for discussing sake? We all know, obviously, that is a bad move and will not make you money. There has never been a worse idea, I rather burn my money than do this, at least it would keep me warm for a minute.

The worst case right now is to figure out a way to handle all of this, and the best way to do this would be making sure that we deal with how we can make a profit out of all of this situation, and when you look at it, there is no way you can profit from random stuff. Remember, 99% of the projects online, do not make a dime, only the top 1% does. We have tens of thousands of projects, and barely the top 20 or 30 are decent, rest are usually shitcoins.

One of the rules of thumb when it comes to investing is to do your research, which means not trusting anyone or any platform to be your guide in making investment decisions. Investing is not a dice game or a coin toss where you pick a token or a coin because someone or a platform tells you that it’s worth investing.

You have to remember that many scammers and developers are hiring shills and promoters, and they are paying platforms to promote their token, so it’s like giving away your money to these scammers.
Be a responsible investor by educating yourself and doing your own research.

If you think you're a lucky guy and always very lucky at everything you're doing then go ahead.
Hopefully it will turn out good but i'm sure 90% of time it will be a failure.

Investing into altcoin is not just throwing money there is a need to analyze and if you failed to do so you're basically just making a trading decision by emotion or feeling.

Altcoin is now having good changes in last few years many things came and then bundled out with huge loses to millions which are now having sidelined this crypto world due to their loses even many still feeling about few projects which are more than gambling.

Meme coins was also had time but recently few big loses give some better understanding and peoples want to avoid this as well because these are entered in phase from gambling to just loses which is more painful now having some good coins or investing into bitcoin is all good otherwise it's nothing positive.

Technology having changes which are essential, but understanding of things is always great while peoples are understanding they are avoiding things like these which give them loses.

Choose tokens with nice community that advertise DCA and long term commitment. If all members of a memecoin community DCA with small amounts every day, the token is guaranteed to raise in price for the long term. Some communities that do this are $ASSDAQ - flip NASDAQ and SPX6900 - flip the stock market.
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If we are talking about normal bots, I think yeah because they are mainly built to auto-trade right? They can't even read charts. But, if we are talking about bots with AI, they are more advance and can even detect shady projects.

I think there are times that they only give us a summarization and it is only up to us to decide if we will proceed or not but only insane person is still going to proceed despite the red flags are already laid out. Randomness in a legit crypto is not worse but in fact normal only. What is only worse is we will invest blindly in a wild market like cryptos. With so many scam projects, there is a big chance of catching them.

This might sound more like a cliche but its something I have experienced it myself over the years.
I have been here almost for a decade now and with my experience I can say that HODL is the ultimate strategy to make massive gains.
Trading altcoins is the easiest way to lose money. Buy bitcoin and maximum one or two altcoins divide the porfolio as 50% bitcoin and 25% in both the altcoins.
If you bought just one altcoin then go 70% bitcoin and 30% altcoin and then just freaking hold it for years.

While i agree with you in that skilled trading is more like a myth, i have to point out that no TA is "bulletproof" because TA is about probability, and there's no 100% probability in trading. One could argue if there is even 51% accuracy in any TA.

Randomness can bring you money, but it's about insider info about team not rugging it or just pure luck. I have made money just by smelling that the team isn't running away immediately, and those tokens can rise, especially when they are microcaps. I would like to see that a skill, but if i am completely honest, it was luck.

If there's some some project doing everything for you, it sounds a lot a plan to trigger bots. Dev team is buying and you will be the pump and dump volume and number of active wallets that could trigger bots for exit liquidity.

In a random market, no matter how smart a trader is, there is no benefit. His experience cannot favors him. No matter how good the analysis is, there is no advantage. In such a situation, the market will not always follow the same path, which is why there are some strategies that can be applied to get good results.

When the market behaves randomly, as a trader, you must focus on how to minimize your losses. Any trade you take must be completed within a short period of time. Long-term such trades increase the risk, which increases the amount of loss. Moreover, stop loss must be set so that you can be protected from more losses. The right decision is to control your greed and come out with as little risk as possible.

First of all, i think this is too risky. Buying tokens randomly without analysis can increase the potential for significant losses. Even when we have analysed the tokens we want to buy, there is still the potential for loss, let alone without doing any research at all. It's like buying something we don't even know what it is, without knowing its benefits or uses, just buying it, hoping and expecting big profits. This is no different from gambling.

Even if you limit, random isn't a reasonable method, you can do "random" in top 100, and it would still be silly move, we have seen plenty of projects be in top 10 and then get out of top 10, let alone top 100, so we know for sure that some of them will go down.

If you do not look at them then you are going to lose a lot more. If you can't do that then you are going to make sure that you are going to lose a ton of money and you won't be really getting a good return. You have to check all of them and if you are careful then you are going to get a lot better results without a doubt. If you do that then you could get a great return because you would be able to get a great return without a doubt. If you do that, then you should be fine.

Well I do think if you buy some random tokens you are going to lose your investment. There is thousands of tokens that are going to be worth nothing or they will become a 'rug pull'.  If you want to buy some new tokens then I think we must do alot of research.

There is new tokens that does come out every day it can be hard to choose a new token that will make us profit. I do not buy any new tokens I only stack older tokens and coins so I know I will make profit if I just hodl them.

It’s really funny how some people think they can predict the market or a coin using a bot and how those who even feel safe for them because it’s really surprising to me. I think someone who predicts the coin using a bot is even at a higher risk than someone who does research and invests in it. Furthermore, all these things are happening due to lack of knowledge; beginners don’t want to learn; they need quick money and will find it difficult to get it.

They will continue losing their money as long as they are looking for a shortcut to make money, because I believe that there is no free money. One must work to get money, and that is the same as crypto; one must learn before earning.