Bitcoin Forum

Although this has something in common with trading, I believe that Bitcoin price betting on prediction platforms is an independent type of betting. Moreover, this is a wonderful type of betting that combines, on the one hand, the ability to analyze the chart (because different rates form the chart), and, on the other hand, it is similar to classic betting, because the betting phenomenon is preserved here. Like classic betting, there is an expiration time when the platform determines the final outcome of the event.
I invite everyone to discuss current Bitcoin price betting on different prediction platforms. First of all, these are the Polymarket and Kalshi platforms, as the most capitalized. I think this will help us combine betting and trading and better understand the direction of the Bitcoin price.
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Please note that here I propose to discuss specific bets on the price of Bitcoin. Please do not pollute the topic with only general reasoning.
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So, at the moment (08/16/2025) on the Kalshi platform the first bet is:
- When will Bitcoin reach the price of 125 thousand dollars?
- By September 2025 - 43%;
- By October 2025 - 65%;
- By November 2025 75% probability.

I posted one on trading discussion which I tried but I did not like it when I was losing. I later realized that I was gambling and not about predicting what the price of bitcoin can be. Yes, it is totally more about gambling. I have seen it on bc.game before but of very short timeframe unlike the exchange which is more like binary option of longer timeframe.

I can never play it anymore. If I visit casino, I visit because of roulettes.

I have never tried it out on any prediction market but as the case maybe why don't so much like such is that I don't know if they would have features like trading tools, I mean after one places their predictions and seeing that the market is going correctly or against them can they decide to exit the market seeing that it's going against them or must likely wait for the estimate time for the market to end or what? I really want to have a pre-knowledge on how it works.

Basically, it's literally gambling when you do it inside the casino platform, especially there are no other tools there to analyze the price of Bitcoin, you just need to bet if it's going up or down  :D

But I am curious, what if you do analyze the chart/price outside of the casino platform, let's say on Tradingview, to predict the next price action, and bet it inside of casino platform? Is that still gambling or trading?

Yes, trading tools are there on the exchange. Not there on the gambling site but just the exchange.

You can not cancel the prediction once you have staked your money. It is not trading but gambling. The time has to be finish and the bet will be settled. If the price go against your prediction, the money is gone.

Oh shit!
They could have something like the cash out options and of course this could actually works and attract more people or gamblers over there than just putting it that way where if someone stake (bet) without the time elapsing then such people wouldn't cashout with the little profits they had already made from their predictions. To me , it shows that trading is much more better than using predict market for Bitcoin predictions, Instead it's more better for events such as political or an occurrences (like war, earthquake whatsoever), and I think they had included war as I have came across a post where people talks about inclusion of war on the prediction market.

I am also thinking this, When we buy bitcoin are we gambling ? we bought BTC and hoping it will go high and if go down we lose some amount of what we invest.
That is g ambling right? as long as there are money involve and we can earn or lose amount that is gambling?

From my perspective it's not like that, Mag. You buy 1 BTC hoping to make a profit, but when the price dump, you lose its value, but you don't lose your asset. Unlike gambling, when you lose, you lose the asset you wagered. CMIIW

BTW, I've never tried betting on sites like Polymarket to predict Bitcoin prices. I think it takes more time to analyze before placing a bet. It sounds interesting, but I find it much more interesting to analyze sports betting.

If you use your skill, it is trading because you analyze before you buy and expect the price increase. But if you just buy and hope the price increase without analyze, that is gambling. But you can gambling with your analysis because the price may not always increase as you want.

Perhaps, we are gamble with our analysis but we are trading. We just need to realize that if we buy Bitcoin and the price is down, we don't have to panic but only waiting for the price increase and sell it.

Probably it could help as we can see the bets and which direction are being favor by majority. Ofcourse this is just a tough corner to rely on since, the chart analysis side comes from applying technical or fundamental analysis to anticipate short term price moves, while the betting side comes from having a fixed expiration date where your prediction is settled.

Of course, the flipside of it is that you can’t manage the position on it  (like stoploss, takeprofit in trading), so it’s all about being accurate at the chosen expiration moment.

The problem is that in gambling, when you pull out your bet before it happens, it's you will either lose a big percentage of the money you input, or you cannot even cancel it anymore. Now, that's gambling. Unlike how it goes with trading, where you could wait for the ROI, although it could take some time.

Sorry, but I have not visited Polymarket yet and have not used their service, so I do not really have an idea how it is done. I am just using the basic rule in betting which is used in sports betting and I bet that's how they do it there.

It’s not trading even if you use analysis skills since you are not buying Bitcoin or future contracts for the price.

It’s just a simple betting on the price outcome which same with sports betting. You are analyzing for the price outcome in able to win while trading is you are buying an asset and wait for it to pump or dump depending on the position that you choose.

Even sports betting itself have an analysis involved or even poker.

It’s not something new, it’s called binary trading. We already had platforms for it here even before the 2017 bull run. Honestly, I’m not really enticed by it. I understand that casinos add this, or any type of gambling they can, to make their platform look like a one-stop shop. But in the end, doing this is just like gambling and relying on luck. I’d rather do day trading, to be honest.

I’d rather choose this.^^^^^

Binary trading is just like betting on luck and could even lead to compulsive gambling (no offense).
I’ve tried it before, and I just didn’t fall in love with it.

I think casinos make easy money with binary trading since they don’t need a game provider for it, it’s based on the current price at a specific time. That’s probably why it’s not so popular in my opinion. I’d rather play slots than binary trading, I guess.

I've never seen a casino add a binary trading service tbh. At most, as OP mentioned, it's a prediction betting with a determined result. I do agree that the risk is similar or higher compared to binary/option trading, which means if that's your thing might as well research it further. One thing to note is that you can't verify anything on a binary trading platform. There have been multiple reports where a binary option manipulates the chart for each user to make sure they always win. I'd never recommend anyone to touch them.

This is really a combination of trading and gambling but if it's on a gambling platform much tools wouldn't be available to do any form of analysis so it's basically just prediciting if the price is going to increase or decrease. If you place a bet on it without proper analysis this is what makes it different trading. This is the same thing as just relying on luck because you have no stats or informations to give you an idea

Rollbit has that, bet either up or down, the same thing like binary option.

I think price betting like what @OP mentioned above is harder to manipulate because it's more unpredictable and require a huge amount of money to move the price especially Bitcoin. In binary option, the price might be different with other exchanges, even the difference is little, but it's enough to affect the results.

If you are a good analyst, you can apply this in trading, and I think even more effectively than in gambling, because risk management in that case will be better. In the case of a loss, you immediately lose your bet, while in trading there are stop losses or averaging, meaning different strategies that prevent you from losing everything at once. For me, such platforms are a way to diversify trading, but with higher risks of losing, so they are not suitable for me, regular trading is enough.

I always say that in every gambling discussion on a particular utas, do not gamble or place bets on games that you do not master, betting is money, so there is a game in the game that you understand is the main pawn gambling.

Gambling is not on the basis of joining, gambling not on the basis of other people's notice, gambling is truly on what we understand the game.
You can lose everything, if you gamble carelessly based on what you see but you don't understand.

Indeed Polymarkets provide Bitcoin prediction bets, for me Bitcoin predictions are very sensitive to the chances of winning very small, we understand among the predictions we have done 0% that leads to closeness, This means that in terms of analysis, graphics and so on to determine the price of Bitcoin is very thin, meaning Bitcoin prediction gambling is not part of us, even if it is tempting.

Honestly, to me it does not make much sense to use those betting platforms to earn money with the price of Bitcoin, there are already platforms (exchanges, and even gambling websites) which allow us to trade according to whether we believe Bitcoin will continue to increase in value or will decrease in value in a very short period of time. So why would anyone not just move onto an exchange instead of locking their money in a betting website. The result could even be the same, as the sentiment of the market could correlate with the sentiment of those who partake in price betting.
As if there was not the same risk to trade and bet on prices, it it almost the same...

I didn't know that they could actually predict the price of Bitcoin in casino platforms, but this doesn't make it similar to trading though it's gambling and I don't think it's more profitable to use gambling platforms... everything that would be available for you to choose would be options that suit the market and not the gambler because that's how casinos work, you can only win when you get lucky and you can't always rely on luck

No one can predict, that’s why it’s called gambling. In binary trading, or what we call here Bitcoin price betting as there’s an expiry time, and whatever the price is when that time hits will determine if your bet won or not. In real trading, it’s not like that. So even though it’s based on the current price, the problem is we can’t really adjust the timing since we choose our position from the very start and just wait until the time expires.

Bitcoin price prediction on betting platform does not really resonate with me, I see it as a waste of time because it is too risky and can hardly make anyone rich. Instead of this, I rather look for some reliable odds in sports bet and place the bet with my Bitcoin, there I stand a chance of winning more and I have more confidence analyzing football matches than predicting Bitcoin price that a single tweet from Donald Trump will scatter all the technical analysis.

In reality, I am not very interested in betting on the price of Bitcoin, it is too complex and risky, and I think it would be more difficult to make money like that than simply investing money in the currency if you think it will go up in price or on the contrary selling and buying when it is at the price you predicted, in short, traditional trading, this way you minimize risks or losses, although at first this may seem like it does not have such a high profit margin, it is a safer strategy, but betting on the price is somewhat complicated, which is why I remain faithful to betting on sports, which is more entertaining.

well,trying to accurately predict the price of BTC itself (by trading) doesn't seem to work in most cases, that's why you're better off holding it.
Now, trying to predict it on a casino... I don't really know how it works because I haven't tried it, nor am I planning to but I already know where it will likely end. It's not going to end well for most people because it's more like playing a guessing game, just like all these pure luck games. I'd rather just stick with my sports betting, but if you feel like having some  fun, then be my guest .

Trading itself is risky enough and I won't support people betting on Bitcoin as you explained. With trading, analysis can be done and people get closer to getting the predictions right but what you're proposing we do is pure gambling and I won't want people to mistake this to be trading then it grows on them. Instead of betting on Bitcoin price why don't they just invest and hodl, doing that you're already betting on Bitcoin price and you won't get to lose unless you're the type that panics quite frequently. Bitcoin price is very unstable and having to put your bets on that although it'll feel good as a gambler but what don't we leave that for the regular things we bet on and not complicate things.

Rollbit future has something exactly similar to this Bitcoin Price prediction on its casino, whereby you predict the up and down movement of Bitcoin within a certain interval of time. And the beauty about Rollbit future casino is that it offer this prediction feature on not only Bitcoin, but on some other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Solana and 1000pump. And it is quite an interesting game to try on a normal day for those who are good at analyzing and predicting the price of Bitcoin and crypto in general. Hence, for those who will want to give Bitcoin price prediction a try, Rollbit futures  is actually the best place for that.

https://talkimg.com/images/2025/08/15/US7d2H.jpeg

Bitcoin price wagering on sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi really hits as a hybrid of examination and prediction. Polymarket trade attracts true crowd knowledge with amazing precision, for example 90% accurate a month prior to market closure. And 94 % just 4 hours before the market closes. And Kalshi? A completely commodity futures trading commission managed, giving a legitimate and marketable contracts that are used for small investments rather than clean bet. sure it's risky but it's also a cool method to mix your charting analysis with the real world event wagering.

Currently the Bitcoin market is having a strong resistance where the price has moved downhill to 117k, If I am not mistakenly we might see Bitcoin below 110k before the next 72 hrs or by this time next week.
Although we can't be so sure about the price action and movement but from how the market is going there could be tendency that this may not last longer as Bitcoin has undergo about 2 time price decline and after 48 to 72 hours the price bounces back, so I believe this could likely happened over here as well.

At first I was quite surprised that bitcoin price betting was a thing when I got to know about it a long time ago but as time went by it became more like a normal thing in the sense that I've seen way awkward betting options (in my opinion though).

The idea is gambling is far different from trading and regardless of it relating to candles it's still quite far from actual trading. Also, prices are not the same on across different platforms either brokers or gambling sites (though they are quite close) and I think that can also affect the psychology behind candle stick gambling.

Betting on BTC’s price can be fun, but the real strength is in holding Bitcoin long-term. Instead of constantly trying to predict short-term moves and losing money through betting or trading, it’s better to simply save Bitcoin and watch it grow over the years. Short-term betting is unpredictable, while patient holding rewards those who save Bitcoin for the long run.

When you buy btc to hodl, it is called investing or investment and the good part of the investment is that at the time of loses, you are only losing your cost price but not the asset or unit that you have invested. Of course we know what happens when the bull returns.

But if you have gone to a casino like polymarket to predict the price of bitcoin just like you predict who will win an election then you are gambling. You are gambling because you have staked an amount multiplied by the odd accrued to it. What makes gambling is the stake that is involved in it as bet. And in the case of hodling bitcoin and predicting it price in a casino, you lose your staking money if the time elaspe and it didn't get to your predicted amount.

They can actually do that, but not all casinos have that option. There are only a few casinos that you can find bitcoin price predictions as part of the options, and that also fall on the line of betting since it's something to predict future happenings. I think the first place I saw bitcoin price predictions available was on Polymarket. I also saw it in one of the popular casinos on this forum. Aside from that, I have not seen it in the new casinos I see around.

predicting what price bitcoin will reach within a certain time frame is very different from straightforward trading. i think i can explain this difference as follows.

in bitcoin price betting, you're placing a bet as it says. in trading, you're engaging in the traditional form of commerce. in bitcoin price betting, there are two possible outcomes: yes or no. in trading, you can determine your own profits and losses, and you're affected by every price difference.

i think both have their advantages because they give us a choice. for example, i'm certain that the bitcoin price will reach $125,000 by 2025, but i don't know how much of a drop that will come after or how long it will take. i don't want to deal with that. i can just place a simple bet.

trading is better for more control, while price betting is better for more relaxed transactions. i think that.

It didn’t sound well to me. It is a sign of disrespect to Bitcoin to me if it is being related to gambling to the extent of betting on its price prediction. I know all these are attempts to call more people to adopt Bitcoin and to as well share good news about Bitcoin, but I don’t like it when people know Bitcoin in gambling or casino platforms.

How will the nature of the game looks like; if it is been designed to predict the exact value of Bitcoin at some time, then many people will not get money from that because predicting exact price of Bitcoin at a particular time will be very difficult, but if it is in a range of some prices, then it can be easier.

Betting on bitcoin price is one type of gambling I do not look forward to attempting, they are called polymarket and I do not find d my interest in it because the uncertainty here is just to high, you may be very skilled with your analysis and even your chatting technicals but you will still not be able to get the exact price of bitcoin at a time except it is set in ranges els if it is to predict the exact price, I doubt if your are going to be lucky enough to get that exact price to win a bet and that is why I do not engage in the polymarket bet for bitcoin price.

What I wants us to understand that gambling can't be compared with a trading because interesting you have a tools or method to apply that can lead you to make your profit in Trading and there is also a risk management in Trading why in gambling you have no risk management so that is what I want us to understand that the different is very clear and the quite understanding, whoever that is partaking in gambling is taking a huge risk compared to someone who is into trading, because a risk of trading can be managed why a risk of gambling cannot be managed

It’s not called Polymarket, it’s binary trading. Polymarket is a decentralized platform that offers different types of betting, including the one that was mentioned. I think you should do a bit of research and visit the site to actually see what they’re offering.

It’s different from trading sites and casinos, but they’ve managed to maintain a good reputation, which has resulted in a huge amount of money flowing there from people who don’t like KYC.

Betting on Bitcoin price is completely like binary trading, moreover, betting on Bitcoin price sounds like an independent type of betting, but people will not be very attracted to it because if you can do the right analysis here, people would be trading with Bitcoin and not betting, moreover, people will earn free Bitcoin by doing the right analysis on Bitcoin for free and participating in various competitions which are seen in games and rounds. However, I will never participate in such type of betting because this type of betting is too risky for me and I will not be able to give the right analysis, which is why I will not participate in such risky bets.

If they allow people to come back and edit their prediction after they’ve seen that the market when checked won’t go as analyzed earlier, or can exist before their time elapse when price already reached what they predicted, I don’t think they will be making money from it. It is for a very short time frame, so it’s very likely you can’t change it and a timeframe will also be given when your prediction can elapse, since you can’t be there all day or waiting for a particular time to see what the price will be. I haven’t come across that before but if a longer timeframe will be given, I think you’ll be the one to pick what you think the price will be at a particular time of the day, not sure if price range will be accepted because if they don’t factor it well and accept price range predictions, they may lose if the price range is allowed to be a bit wide from each other.

In the past it was really common to "gamble" with binary options.
The problem was behind most of platforms that they were just tricking the price and casually get people liquidated with flash movements (most of the time happening ONLY in the gambling platform).
Nowadays, I will look more on these platforms as an hedge/insurance on my trade. With the right strategy this could become really profitable and a clear advantage.

That is true and they wouldn't be making any profits from their market and when it's leaved that way people can make wrong predictions and that belongs to them immediately one loses their predictions. Although for me, they could have made it a bit more flexible as I believe that there are options which people could like optioning for.
But if such is being implemented then it becomes a good market for the gambler and a bad one for them, already as we know gamblers usually do lose in while gambling and the casino site do make profits so they wouldn't want what would make them lose heavily instead the opposite should be incuring such lose which is from the gamblers.

Well, I agree, predicting the future price direction of bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency is the same thing as betting because it's something that we are not very sure of, we are only betting on it to happen which in reality, will happen or not happen, when it happens, we win, and when it doesn't happen as we predicted, we lose, that is gambling.

Personally, I love the price prediction game because it's a skill based type of game where one can learn how to read the chart in order to be able to predict its future direction and bet on that wisely, I would be happy to see bitcoin and cryptocurrency price prediction game get listed on all modern and classic online casinos.
Because so far, I think it's only Rollbit casino that have such feature as betting on the future price of Bitcoin and some other selected cryptocurrencies.

I will duplicate the entry from the strat-post here. Pay attention to it, since I offered there for discussion a specific forecast for the price of bitcoin and the corresponding rates on the Kalshi platform. Perhaps you will find similar forecasts on the Polimarket platform or other similar platforms. Let's discuss specific rates on the price of bitcoin and not clutter the topic with general reasoning.
   Also note that betting on prediction platforms differs from classic betting. It is something between betting and trading. Also, sometimes several components are often combined in one bet and you need to choose one of these several competing outcomes. Let's say the current bet in the start post suggests determining in which autumn month Bitcoin will reach the mark of 125 thousand dollars.

I think it's the same as perpetual futures because you are trying to predict whether the price will rise or fall. Essentially, removing the trading tools will result in a more gambling approach. For Polymarket, it's something different, for sure, because you're checking at a single point in time and then determining who the winner is based on that. It's pretty different, and the liquidity of the trades would also be different.

I have the same sentiment with with you about this but comes the question, do you think those gambling with Bitcoin in this regard doesn't know about the potential risk of what they are doing? I know what they are doing is some worth way of belittling Bitcoin but on the second thought I don't fucking give attention to whatever anyone decides to do, gambling price of Bitcoin in a casino is not a calculated risk because the chances of lossing your money is extensively high and if anyone feels they want to give a try they should go ahead is their choice which of course they will surely have a story to tell hahaha.

Perpetual futures present with authorisation you to betting on price movement without any kind of expiration date, somethin like an ongoing rolling or similar. Lets talk about Julien_Olynpic's Kalshi & Polymarkets! afaik they are based on fixed outcomes at a given point in time, right? exactlly direct binary bets, you could not compare it to leveraged trades at any aspect. Kalshi is entierly regulated by CFTC entrepot, yeah they lets you pick up event contracts where yes = $ 1, no = $ 0, for US based users it is faultlessly valid. if you look over Polymarkets it put forward a crypto based, also come up with my favorite feature "decentralization", and offering 0% fee, so it is real time market but with regulatory gray zone. So yeah,, both are enlightening however they are frankly unique beasts in the prediction area.

From my analysis, I believe that Bitcoin will even get to $125k dollars this month because it has already gotten to $124,472 and what we are seeing now is a correctional movement which will come back to break another structure and give us another new ATH. So, if am to take this bet, I am not seeing the correct option which is supposed to be "August." So I won't take the bet because I will definitely lose the bet since Bitcoin is going to cross $125k even before September. I won't take the bet. I guess they didn't include August since we are already in the month and they also know that Bitcoin will cross the amount by this month.

Another prediction from Kalshi (https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcmax150/when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k) platform is when will Bitcoin hit $150k?
Before March 2026= 46%
Before February 2026= 44%
Before January 2026= 37%

From my analysis, Bitcoin might hit $150k before January. Since it has reached an ATH of $124,000, if the US Feds reduce the interest rate and more Bitcoin flows into the ETF, we might get to that price before the year runs out.

  Interesting topic, OP...++

I also see Bitcoin prediction markets more as a hybrid between trading and gambling. On the one hand, you use TA/FA skills and sentiment analysis to make decisions, but on the other hand, the ,,expiration date,, element really makes it feel closer to betting markets than classical long/short trading.
....As for Kalshi’s BTC > $125k contracts:

--September 2025 -- 43% – seems quite optimistic to me, considering current macro headwinds and U.S. monetary policy data still shaking the market.
--October -- 65% – that looks like the market pricing in some possible ETF inflows or halving momentum finally showing up in Q4.
----November -- 75% – personally I think that’s a bit overheated. Historically, Bitcoin doesn’t always follow the “perfect post-halving curve.” Add to that geopolitics and regulatory pressures, and I wouldn’t give it 3-in-4 odds so easily.

From this prediction, I will also bet on the same option you selected which is for Bitcoin to get to $150k before January, already the market is not showing any signs of huge dump and what I can see is that the price is trying to continue moving up and I believe that it will definitely surge past the current ATH and might get to $130k which might just take between now and November for the price to reach $150k.

  Interesting to see how Kalshi and Polymarket differ a bit on their Bitcoin price forecasts. Polymarket is much more detailed and shows very bullish sentiment:

--$125k — 85%
--$130k — 73%
--$140k — 52%
--$150k — 38%
--$170k — 20%
--$200k — 11%
--$250k — 5%
---$1M — 2%

So according to Polymarket, hitting $125k this year looks almost guaranteed, and even $130–140k is being treated as pretty realistic. Kalshi doesn’t go into that much detail, but their 75% probability for $125k by November lines up reasonably well with what Polymarket is showing.
 https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025

For it to be considered gambling, I think there needs to be another possibility. It should be possible to profit from a good prediction. However, of course, you shouldn't invest too much money in it. Because if you're confident in your prediction, it seems more logical to consider it in trading rather than betting. For example, if you predict Bitcoin will reach $120,000 in a month, Bitcoins purchased for less than $120,000 will always yield a profit.