Bitcoin Forum

If we’re going to see another major bull run in 2026, it will likely take a mix of steady economic conditions, fresh technological breakthroughs, clearer regulations, and overall market optimism. Predicting exactly when the market will take off is tough, but there are a few realistic factors that could come together to fuel long-term growth.
One big piece of the puzzle is inflation. If we continue to see it cool off around the world, central banks especially the U.S. Federal Reserve might start lowering interest rates. That shift would make borrowing cheaper, encourage more investment, and usually boost the appeal of riskier assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Another major driver could be institutional money flowing into the space. If heavyweight firms like BlackRock or Fidelity deepen their involvement whether through tokenized assets, crypto ETFs, or building out blockchain infrastructure that kind of endorsement could bring in serious capital and boost confidence across the board.
Of course, no single event can spark a bull run on its own. But if we get a combination of strong economic signals, real-world tech adoption, and smarter regulations, it could create the right conditions for markets to really take off in 2026. The key for investors will be to stay aware of the bigger picture and think long term.

Interesting..., 2026, according to a 4-year cycle pattern, should be a transition to a bear market.  In a natural flow of the Bitcoin market, the halving is one of the major catalysts to trigger the next Bull Run, since after the halving, the hype of the market becomes increasingly active, sentiment becomes bullish, and many institutions become more active during this event.

I do not know whether Bitcoin will break its pattern in the following years.  It is possible with these many institutions partaking in the adoption of Bitcoin, but it is still to be seen. Knowing the situation and the previous market pattern, I won't be overexcited but instead will watch the market closely.

Bullshit! Bullshit!

Did you settle down to write this crappy walls of text or you just prompted some intelligence to give you a post to make ? because if you're smart enough you would know that bitcoin bullrun is going to end this year and 2026 is going to start the bearish market or downward flow of bitcoin.

So how the hell did you come about the year!?

At first I thought this was a post that has or wants us to predict the catalyst that will make bitcoin reach it's highest ATH this year or ths coming last quarter of the year, didn't realise it was this crappy confused post!.

 Through the history of bitcoin bull runs this circle has been one with interruptions of the sequence to usually process of the bitcoin market transitioning from the bears to bullish.

It was the first time in bitcoin history that the  ATH was created before the halving, and by analysis it is becoming the longest bull run season with a multiple of ATH'S to which we're still projecting another before the end of 2025.

The market psychology generally is that the fourth year has always been bullish pursuant  to a bearish season  which is 2026. By the Op, how this sequence is going to change is what I am in anticipation for.

How much more of a bull run do you honestly need?
We are already in the middle of a bull run that we waited for almost 3-4 years, and you are already talking about another?
Do you think the market will just keep going up and up without any retracement (reset)? If you think so, then you are still very new in crypto markets and all other markets in general.

I just want to warn you to brace for a bear market first.

We are already on the last quarter of the year signifying uncertainty in the bull season. The only exceptional phenomenon for this current halving season is more institution came in for the ride and hodling, more countries talking tough on regulation legislation and Bitcoin reserve for different countries. Howbeit, I will be very careful this season in bull expectations. The last ATH was on bitcoin Pizza day and with a closer look on the market trend, the price have been dropping after that day. So talking about what will push price beyond that price or beyond for this year, I can't wrap my head around it for now.

In the year 2026 will be the bear market and not bull run, you should tale your time and study bitcoin four years circle so that you don't get it twisted. Talking about the bull run which we are in, is the most unique bull run since the history of bitcoin because in this circle, Bitcoin ETF was lunched and that made bitcoin price to create a new ATH before the halving.

This circle was an eye opener for big companies and the government because bitcoin cleared their doubt immediately, the price reached $100k. Many companies have started accumulating bitcoin aggressively to use it as a store of value overtime. This why I can't really say which catalyst will trigger the bear market in 2026.

Yeah, we have seen a big increase, but it happened before. In 2021, we had a April period where it broke the ATH and then in November or October it was, we broke it again.

So it is not really unheard of and happened before, so we should not look into this as something that is sole and unique because it does happen and not new. We should be considering this as something that is normal and does happen time to time.

If we can do this better, then we are going to end up with better results, and shouldn't be remaining because it may not go up, because it can go up twice and I believe Q4 will be good enough to go up again. We are going to have to wait a bit more, but it is going to happen and we shouldn't be avoiding again.

I think the idea here is,
When it isn’t aggressive, it just doesn’t count anymore, lol… people that have been used to seeing the market pump and pump and pump again with those long green candles that seems like, it’s never dipping don’t want to watch a market that gradually tops price, even when it’s breaking several ATH.

It’s not so hard a reality to accept that, it’s going to take this slow but steady formats to it now, $120k for a Bitcoin is no small feet.

I am also in that position of your view. Bitcoin market events on their differential performances has only been occuring in the four years cycles events according to analysis and market studies.

On the normal, it is expected that the bull market will be subject to elaps by this year probably by the end of the year but exceeding to 2026 is still possible but that will be anomaly while the adoption of institution investors and federal reserve on Bitcoin proposals are quite key influence to manipulate the market regular events to cause such price distortion with their agressive and regularly buying of Bitcoin.

So therefore, given it a benefit of doubt that the bull will run til 2026 should be considered irrational but we can be optimistic.

aren't we in a bullrun already?

In 2026 it won't be the next bullrun but instead it's continuation of current bullrun if market doesn't just shift to bearish sentiment. The catalyst will be the fact that there are many countries approving bitcoin investments and large institutional investors are deploying their product to the ethereum ecosystem like what they're currently doing.

Those are the macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, that could lead to a bull run(according to my humble opinion):
1.Trump tariffs getting canceled completely(by the US Supreme Court or by the US Congress, after the Democrats gather a majority).
2.The war in Ukraine coming to an end. I had the feeling that the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska contributed to the ATH Bitcoin price.
3.The Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, just like OP already mentioned in his forum thread.
4.Some technological breakthrough related to the cryptocurrency world. This shouldn't be "the next shiny object" like the ICOs and NFTs from the past. This must be something really useful, but I don't have any ideas about what technological innovation could potentially boost the prices of all cryptocurrencies. 

I agree with these. With these geopolitical factors, it will really matter; we already proved this before, especially a huge dump before about Bitcoin banning in some major countries like China and/US? The price of Bitcoin really affected those times.
We are already done with ETF, so for me. With major countries adopting or banning Bitcoin, it will have a huge impact.

But we should also not forget how a pandemic can cause  the market (Bitcoin or non Bitcoin market. Just like what happened last 2020 with COVID19.

The future is unpredictable, there is no guarantee that history will always repeat itself exactly, nor is there any regulation that requires bitcoin to follow a single pattern (4 year cycle). Everything can break or change, and it all depends on micro and macro factors.

Just like in this cycle, Bitcoin hit a new ATH before the halving and that has never happened in the past. Likewise, historically it is not wrong to say that we will enter bear season next year, but can any of us guarantee that it will definitely happen? History can repeat itself or be broken at any time.

That is absolutely correct and of course none of us here can really tell how the price or Bitcoin halving gonna be, everything is subjected to change and like you said above that we hit another ATH even before the halving. And Yes, about 99 percent of us here never expected that we could hit such price even before halving, even if there are people that has already predicted that Bitcoin price would soar they did that out of speculation and of course what most of us does here is purely speculation and they can't guarantee any given words here about Bitcoin prices.

In one sentence the only thing that can trigger increase in Bitcoin price to hit more bull runs is when demand is greater than supply and so far I'm not seeing anything from the regular fundamentals that we can perceive to trigger price. No positive news yet to increase funds of investors and no FOMO to trigger price hyke yet. From my observation I think that looking beyond this year for any major price skyrocketing might not be a feasible prediction, it is likely that we will be seeing bear run by 2026. We can only speculate our opinions but it doesn't change anything.

The next one is this one, the bull run isnt over.   Even bulls dont sprint 24/7/365 this whole movement is bullish and its not over just yet.   You just got to let the cattle graze a little :P

Yeah, the bull run will happen in the late months of 2025, not in 2026. The year of 2026 should be a lot worse for us and should be bear run, it's clear that we are not going to get that bull run, we are going to end up getting the bear run soon in 2026 because that is how the four year cycle works.

If we can do that, then we can get a great return and should be happy with it. Because even in a bear run, there are ways to make money. Two ways comes to mind, one is shorting,  and if you short during the bear market period then you are going to make some money

 And another is buying up during the bear market so that if you can do that then you are going to end up with a lot better results without much trouble for sure. Because back on bull, all those you bought at bear period will end up being profitable.

Perhaps you both are right, history could be written or could be broken and perhaps we have seen that in the past we have a single pattern of operation which somehow wants to change but still remains in line hence if bitcoin historical pattern is ought to be broken it will definitely and none can predict it. Yet in the same vane bitcoin is know for its cycle and their is no clear sight of change even after the temporary happenings here and there the believe in 4, years cycle continues and not just continuous it makes s bitcoin what it is and reason why it should keep striving, if there be a change in how it moves then everything becomes so uncertain in the bitcoin eco-system.

As you said, a single event can't trigger a bull run but will involve a lot of such events where either the governments try to back cryptos or major institutions start investing people's money into cryptos(which already is happening with a lot of major firms). I also consider mass adoption as a key factor for the upcoming bull run but it is adversely affected by all these events.

Right now, the governs play a major role. Any supporting bill from governs will drive people crazy about cryptos and will catch their attention. Nowadays, I can also see a lot of centralized providers promoting cryptos even though they report everything to the governs and try to regulate the transactions.

If reserves start lowering their interest rates then they also might have to lower the interest rates on fixed deposits or any other means of deposit which will force people to withdraw their money & invest it elsewhere. I don't think the reserves will take this kind of a move as they might end up giving a lot of loans but there will be no deposits to back those loans.

I don't think it's necessary to talking about the bull market in 2026 when we knows that the market cycles for this season is meant to close by this year and since the market has been psychologically capitulating investors actions as a result of price decline being taking too long to recover while hope to be in the bullish season.
Investors out there are on their dynamic optimisms with different speculations. Some are hopeful to see further Aths amidst the rest few months of the year based on their trust for bitcoin in reference to the historical performance but we aren't sure if histories would be reliable enough to repeat itself in this scenario as some are speculating that we've batched into the bear already. So to me, the optimism about the bull market should be centered in this 2025. 2026 could only be a bonus so we don't even have to put it in agenda for now speculating the exceeding of the four years cycle to 2026.

If you choose to believe the market will continue it's four year cycle that is on you.

In order for btc to succeed down the road  the four year cycle must end.

Why not have it end this cycle?

How sure are we that the bullrun will extend to 2026, because we already had a long one since the beginning of this year down to where we are and we still expect more bullrun coming before the end of the year, how sure are we then that next year will not introduce us to another phase of the market instead of the continuation in bullrun, this is my thought and assumption anyways, we can see a change or have it the same way you have reasoned.

While bear markets are inevitable since no market goes up in a straight line, but is there any guarantee that this 4-year cycle will repeat itself? It may or may not repeat, no one knows for sure.


Can shorting help us make a profit in a bear market? Is it that easy? If making a profit simply as going long in a bull market and shorting in a bear market. If it is, why do most people lose money or even leave the market when bear season hits? Easier said than done.



This method seems more correct than shorting, but it will take a long time because no one knows how long the bear market will last before it ends.

No one knows if that will happen but for every cycle, there's an ending to it. But if changes do happen by next year, we'll get to see it. The majority of us believes that there will be an ending for this bull run and that's likely by 2026. If that doesn't happen and there's a shift to the 4-year cycle, we'd know and see that.

You have a point that it might not repeat itself but with all of its history, it's always been accurate. But the next one, you're right. We will never know but it's very likely that it will.

I will rather do an analysis of where the price of bitcoin will stand before the end of the year than try to strain too much about what next year will look like when the last quarter of the year just started not long ago. event that will play out even next month is not known to us not to talk about next year. it is very possible that before the year runs out, because of where the price of bitcoin will stand, most of the speculation we will do at this time will be completely irrelevant which is why it is best to wait and remain invested while allowing things to unfold by itself.

If we’re looking at a major bull run in 2026 it’ll probably need a mix of steady econ conditions fresh tech breakthroughs clearer rules and a positive market mood predicting the exact timing is tough but some real factors could line up to push growth long term.One big thing is inflation if it keeps cooling down central banks like the fed might start cutting interest rates that makes borrowing cheaper pushes more investments and usually makes riskier stuff like stocks and crypto more attractive.Another big factor is money from big firms if giants like blackrock or fidelity get deeper into crypto whether through etfs tokenized assets or building blockchain things that kind of support pulls in big capital and boosts overall confidence.

Tech advances like better scalability or new use cases for blockchain could also spark more interest especially if these solutions make crypto easier and cheaper to use for everyday people.Clearer and smarter regulations would calm nerves too regulators balancing protection without killing innovation would help more investors and companies get involved without fearing sudden crackdowns.All these things working together could build a strong foundation for the market to really take off in 2026 with more adoption and bigger players entering the space the momentum might just snowball but investors gotta keep an eye on risks and stay ready for ups and downs while thinking long term.

Although 2026 is expected and speculated to be the year for the bears to come in but aside from that, the catalyst needed for bitcoin bull is not more of institutions buying but legislation that will see even government becoming a big player in the industry and not being greedy to stiffen users of btc that will adopt their centralized system. Reduced btc income tax and use of bitcoin to make official payment and bookings for the government. Like for example, Dubai has already started being liberal with bitcoin use and so such headlines like those below would be the catalyst required.

https://talkimg.com/images/2025/09/04/Un3A1N.png

Dubai's Emirates signs preliminary deal to add crypto to payments  (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dubais-emirates-signs-preliminary-deal-add-crypto-payments-2025-07-09/)

  Is UAE crypto-ready? How you can now buy property and book flights using cryptocurrency (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/is-uae-crypto-ready-how-you-can-now-buy-property-and-book-flights-using-cryptocurrency/amp_articleshow/122384300.cms)

 
Dubai government to accept crypto payments through Crypto.com partnership  (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/dubai-government-to-accept-crypto-through-cryptocom-partnership.html)

True, but observant like us always look at the cycles and pattern of Bitcoin.  So far, the most noticeable is the 4-year cycle and has yet to be broken until today.  It is not on us, it is on market, as long as it keeps repeating people will believe in it until it is broken.


Not entirely true, BTC can succeed even with the four-year cycle, since it is not the cycle that pushes Bitcoin to succeed but the adoption of people and institutions.  I do not think the end of the 4-year cycle will be the catalyst for Bitcoin's success since Bitcoin is already on its path to successful implementation unless something goes wrong along the way.


It is for us to see, since it is not on the individual to end the cycle, but on the market. I believe the effect of the halving is getting weaker as the block reward goes smaller, so it is possible that the 4-year cycle may diminish one day when the halving effect becomes obsolete.

Let us not be so sure that 2026 is going to be a bear market year, we are just speculating and Bitcoin have a way of surprising everyone with it unexpected turns out of event, don't be supprise to see a new all time high Bitcoin price being recorded in the year 2026, we need to stop predicting Bitcoin future price and only speculate it in the most decent manner that we can.

That is me. I am expecting it a lot higher ATH in the coming months, before the 2025 ends I am expecting at least one more run above the all time high price. And looking at the four year cycle, it shows that 2026 should be a bear run, look at 2018 and look at 2022 and you will see why.

I am definitely certain that we are not going to get anything major about this anytime soon, it is not going to be that easy and we are going to end up with bad results one way or another. So it is not really that complicated when you think about it, it's quite obvious that we are going to see this change. If you can do that then you are going to end up with much better results, and shouldn't be worried about it at all. In this case, it is going to be easy to see it go up this year.

That's just it, speculations and and historical performance will always ignite enthusiasts expectations which might be okay but I think it's safer if we anticipate for what can be realistic to attain. But what I don't get right is why anticipating contrarily to the market activities knowing it's tied on four years cycle which this year 2025 will an aggregate of this current cycle (full cycle=4yrs).



Surely the bear market and the halving are all events that contributes to the success of bitcoin which at the end of it cycle completion is always the bull market where Bitcoin price have to experience skyrocketing and breaking new Ath's.

I would agree with you that  itocin could surprise us all by hitting new all time high in 2026 just the way it did by breaking new all time high before halving yet that doesn't break the fact that we always have bitcoin to be a four years cycle runner which probably 2026 is a beginner of the four years and might hence be noticeable for bearish starts, yet all this are speculations since no one knows what can happen in the next few minutes and bitcoin can become so volatile by going side ways or upwards in my speculated bearish period.

But we can all based on the history of Bitcoin to say that in 2026, it will or might be a bearish trend. Of course we don't want to see the price struggling again, but that is the nature of Bitcoin's movement. Volatile and then we have that 4 year cycle. In any case we have a break out year then good, this is going to be the first time that a super cycle is going to happen. However, I won't put too much on that, I'm still basing on the previous logs and it says that we are in a bear market. And we should be taking advantage if that happens, it's the start of accumulation period for all of us. And it's like a reset, going back to zero again.

Hype. As long as there is a hype around bitcoin, then there will be some craze going around the world to jump into bitcoin. It happened before and it can happen again, it's far too common. I know that it doesn't look that great at the moment, but it shouldn't really be a worry to any of us, it should be something that can be done easily.

I understand this must be feeling bad for some because we know that it can go up and yet not going up right now so we are feeling impatient right now about waiting for that to happen. Like knowing something will happen, but waiting until it happens is a very tough thing but you need to be waiting and if you wait long enough and hold it then you are going to make some great returns.