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Each day I see individuals praising AI. New models, new data centers, new "revolutions". At first I felt excited too. However, as I started to learnt more closely, I began to grow uncomfortable

The entire system is a running treadmill  Hundreds of billions are being spent by big companies to construct AI servers and yet, these machines are not durable. They become "old" in as short as 3-5 years. The cycle does not end since Nvidia releases new chips with each passing year. In order to keep up with it, they have to continue purchasing again and again

This is not similar to railroads or fiber-optic cables which lasted decades. By the time that these bubbles burst, society was not left without useful networks. Where are we going to be left with these AI hardware. Largely e-waste and large power bills

And these tech stocks are held by some elderly' pension fund. Your savings might too. When this treadmill slow down, it is not only the people of Silicon Valley who lose. Everywhere it is retirees, workers, families. I do not want the future of my family to be tied to the number of servers Amazon or Microsoft are going to purchase next year

Also think about energy. Data centers continue consuming huge amounts of electricity on an annual basis. To build new power lines which are used by AI only, utilities borrow money. When the demand reduces, they are still carrying with that debt and normies may pay the prices. That is us

What's the difference with cellphone which exist before AI boom?

Someone create a cellphone, but they only give 3x OS update, in fourth year we no longer able to update the OS. Our cellphone is getting slower from time to time and in the next few years our cellphone no longer support the apps we installed before.

I think it's not about AI, but technology creators create this system to make us forced to get rid from old devices, then buy the new one.

That is a sharp point. This is how I feel when my phone becomes slow after a couple of years and the apps become inactive. It is annoying, and, indeed, tech companies make it that way. It keeps the money flowing

Yet, I believe that the AI treadmill is even larger compared to the cellphone cycle. It is only my little personal cost when my phone runs out of life. In the case of AI, servers do not go to "waste" when servers expire every 3-5 years, but the whole economies. It is too big to a level that it already supports U.S. GDP growth. To construct power lines, utilities take billions of loans. Pensions invest in these companies. And when AI hardware gets disposed, the "coerced upgrade" strikes everyone simultaneously, be it retirees or families with more energy bills to pay

Partly, you are correct: the system conditions us to embrace waste and unlimited substitution. But with AI the scale is different. Cellphones are burning our wallets; AI might burn the grid, the pensions, and possibly even even the stability in markets

Thats how it is, AI is still in its infancy, the growth itself is still massive. There's literally a new model every 2 month from the likes of claude, openAI, etc and nvidia happily provide new chip with higher computing power so they can keep it going.

The problem here that we should ask is whether that's gonna be sustainable. If the AI company could get their ROI before the need to replace the server, I think it's gonna be fine.

For the e-waste produced, shouldn't we be able to just recycle it though?

I hope you don't have bitcoin then, because miners do the same thing. They go into debt to mine, and their equipment becomes obsolete in a short time. And they also use up a lot of energy. But since you have no idea about the overabundance, you make up these stories.


What a load of nonsense. You've concocted a conspiracy theory here that just shows you don't understand anything.

And as a result, why is this being done? Competition? I don't think so; it's just, as the OP said, a marathon for profit. If our phones become obsolete after three years, doesn't it make you think that all this is being created intentionally? How many things do we remember that have worked for decades and still function as intended, performing their basic functions? But these new technologies, screaming that they make life easier, seem to me like sucking money out of the consumer for things that are illusory, useful, but in principle, there is no need for them.

Well the poster is somewhat correct. There are billions and billions of GPUs being used for AI. Eventually they will get replaced by newer chips and what happens to this old technology. Its huge amount of waste.

With GPU mining it was different because when miners were done with the GPUs and other hardware such as motherboards or CPUs, they just sold it to some gamers and the equipment was used for a few more years. But these AI chips dont really have much use outside of being in AI data centres. And this is thousands of GPUs. And you know they will get outdated because the technology moves so fast and they will all have to go to the landfill and just contribute to large waste.

The AI bubble is just like the Dot Com bubble in the late 90s/early 00s. The Dot Com bubble popped, but we had Google, social media(Facebook, Twitter), Amazon and eBay. There will be AI companies that will survive the crash after the AI bubble bursts.
What you are talking about is controlled obsolescence. This is one of biggest flaws of capitalism and I don't know how we are going to deal with it. Maybe the governments need to step in and impose strict rules to prohibit controlled obsolescence.
I'm not an expert, but I do believe that all that obsolete hardware(servers, microchips, etc.) can be recycled.

This is true, correctly you just described the story of my life, I like my xiaomi phone very much that I am not ready to replace it but the OS are outdated, later some apps start requesting for latest updates to run.

Fast-forward to now I have no choice but to run a custom OS on my phone and damn I did the right thing, the phone is now more snappy and also less junky than before.

The OS is also more secured and reliable than the factory OS, so if you are facing something similar there are some custom OS from thirdparty devs that are open source and far more secured than factory OS, there is no app that I can't run right now on my phone.

Your concerns are worthwhile, but unfortunately, AI has come to stay. Nobody knows when the AI era will end; it might take more than a century because it seems we are still at the infant stage. We are seeing advanced research on integrating AI into almost all sectors. The impact of this new technology in the military is growing every day.

The Pension fund managers have done extensive research before investing in the AI industry. The sector is currently the most stable and profitable, so you expect investors to aggressively put in money. The demand for AI will keep increasing, hence there is no need to be scared about its collapse.     

That is why everything that has a good side may also have its disadvantages base on how applicable it has been and also the approach people are giving it, AI has brought in about more advance methods of achieving things done, but they may not have to  be more applicable on every sides.


You know what, government are pumping more funds in aspects that they see if getting more attention and trends, that is why in the use of AI, you may never see a financial obligation as a challenge they may face form this section, because its all about innovation and developments.

AI is the latest invention, though it has existed for a while, it is becoming more relevant, and nothing can change that.

Look at it this way, even if a country is trying to think your way, what about many other countries? They will certainly leave the country behind, which is what many countries are trying to avoid. As it is, AI is a mix of good and bad, I can only hope it will be regulated in a way that we can enjoy our old ways of doing things a little, keep a sustainable human workforce and also avoid many other self-destructive uses of it.

Above all, I welcome it!

I agree with you on the general idea, but we are forced. I mean, we as individuals don't own this, and we can't stop it. Companies control everything, even our lifestyles, and we can't stop them.

AI companies will continue to work and develop constantly, and no one will be able to stop them. AI is entering our lives despite us, and we can't stop it either. Therefore, we are forced, just as we are forced to change our mobile phones to keep up with the development and to pay the development bills out of our own pockets.

The scary thing about AI is that even though the big corporations could definitely be regulated and controlled, individuals can't be.

And most of these methods are open source, which means that if you could download whatever is the most elegant AI or the most advanced, and feed it bad things, you could always have a bad one, it's not that hard. This is the trouble, and that means we could always have risks and it won't be stopped.

Remember, governments can't stop everything, like for example pirating movies was something they are against for decades now, and they can't do anything about it. So believe me, if AI is used badly, they won't be bale to stop it, and it WILL be used for bad reasons so we need to be ready.

You can avoid using AI, or the LLM as they are called by their developers.
Every second day an article comes out musing in loud voice if the AI bubble will blow, if or when?


Original: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/09/07/what-if-the-ai-stockmarket-blows-up
Paywall free https://archive.today/EfllX
Hard data is: Only 3% of all users pay, ChatGpt has a retention of 71%, Perplexity just 49%
I guess the higher retention of ChaGtp is due to the common man who flocked to the principal.

These fads and trends are nothing new, happening in cycles every few years. Now AI is definitely more revolutionary than your regular fad, similar in scale to the internet in the Blockchain, but there is an element of over hype. The world is constantly evolving so we are always on a treadmill with changing technology, it's inescapable and nothing new. The economy goes through peaks and troughs, where companies can be vastly overvalued. In good times people spend too much and overstretch, but that is reined in naturally through recession. There's nothing to be scared about, just don't get into too much personal debt and you'll be fine.

Technological evolution. It is a natural process... And AI is just one stage in this evolution. This has happened many times in human history. In the past, people used physical strength, animal power, and primitive mechanisms. Then came engines, first steam engines, then internal combustion engines.  Then mechanical calculators were replaced by computers with tube technology,   and then digital technology. Now AI technology has come into our world. What happened in previous cases? Some people lost jobs that were no longer in demand, while others accepted the changes and adapted. It will be the same now. Some people will indeed lose their jobs, while others will adapt. The world is changeable; it has always been this way, it is this way now, and it will always be this way. Conclusions: accept changes that you cannot influence and adapt.
The same AI may take away someone's job, but it may give someone else a job, it may become a very good assistant in someone's daily work, and someone else may build their business on the use of AI.

Companies want to stay relevant with the new technology, or they will end up like Nokia. ::)

Do these AI servers require that much hardware? Because I thought it was still developed and old hardwares can be used too but if they want to increase the computational power and beat the competitors then they have to go with the most powerful ones. And we also need to accept that this is the new normal and in future we have more complete system like AGI that will be capable of doing more thing effectively at little cost.

Just for the comparison the first ever working computer size around 1800sq.foot and needed 150KW power to operate but with the limitation of around 35 calculations but if we didn't had that one now we won't be using what we all are using so it's not just burning electricity but a way to find more savings in the future.

Only if society would see it that way but, we don’t.

Obviously people tend to crave for the latest models even with the previous still very functional. In fact, you find that so many individuals haven’t used the previous models of their chips and programs to its full potential but, they are already out looking for an update.

It’s how these developers and company stay in business. The business of producing that which you don’t even need because they know you still would go for it because of the idea of latest models being better than the formal.

Yes, that's a concern. AI does drive a much faster capital and energy consumption cycle than many traditional infrastructures. I think AI hardware follows a similar rhythm to mobile phones; each chip generation brings a significant leap forward, so companies are forced to upgrade or get left behind. However, I believe some AI investments will leave a legacy of useful infrastructure, much like the internet bubble since 20 years ago.

yes, nobody wants to be the giant that was left behind by the next wave. And you are correct, competition makes these companies always demand the latest and most powerful hardware. That part is natural in tech. In the case of Nokia failure, shareholders and phone users were mostly the victims. In AI, the stakes are significantly larger. These servers are not in laboratories. They are attached to the pensions, to the power systems, to the GDP itself. When the cycle proves to be slower than anticipated, the entire economy is affected not just a single company on stock prices

I agree with you that the initial computers were also wasteful, and turned out to be stepping stones. Perhaps, the same can be said about AI hardware today. But the variance is magnitude and velocity. First computers never used 3-5% of national electricity or compelled utilities to borrow billions within a single decade. And they did not need $320B in a single year to make ends meet. Now the treadmill is moving much faster

Keep in mind that - because of the amount of complexity and also because of inflation - the things/technologies/tests are getting increasingly ever more expensive, making "the treadmill move faster".
Also, since the analogy with old computers has already started, consider the "waste" of energy actually an investment in development and research (models getting better, learning more; maybe better chips being also built in the process). And I see it as a good thing that people and companies are willing to pay for this.

I also think that looking at electricity consumption is not the best way to think (remember the days people were pointing at bitcoin mining because of consumption?). I think that obtaining electricity has become easier (of course, consumption rose too) in the past couple of years. And I hope that getting electricity from nuclear fusion will also become reality in the not too far future.

Back to AI: the models are becoming better over time, but for a while that will not matter as costs and consumption because now the companies are already splitting them per targeted audience to keep costs down. With every step of models becoming more efficient, they will probably become more generic before becoming "small" in the similar way the computers have evolved from entire room to today laptops, tablets and cell phones.


PS. Since I consider - especially with the huge changes in the world and businesses in the past 5 years - the stock market an advanced gambling I fail to comprehend, I can't tell whether the pension funds getting into AI is a good or a bad thing. I would like to see more of them also investing into Bitcoin (not Bitcoin companies, since that's still old style stock market), but as long as there's still the 4-years cycle in play, I am not surprised they are afraid.

out of about 900 million users about 3% pay into some kind of subscription.
The numbers are similar to the dot com bubble.

Now the biggest beneficiarios of a non bubble burst, or the chances are high they survive the bubble bursting, are trying their best sales pitches on the UK government,

Does this take into account the companies (especially tech companies) paying big bucks to AI providers for "safe access" of their employees to all these goodies?
Because I expect that's the revenue model, else OpenAI/MS and many others would go down so fast, even I would notice.

The main difference with the dotcom bubble is the utility, we should have a focus on that and efficiency of the product to improve results for users.    The one thing I do think AI makes a difference is the current inefficiency of usage of existing technology, AI doing radically new tasks is something different & probably harder to achieve.

   Lots of people don't or cant use tools already available for five years, its like having a solid V8 in your car but you only know how to start it in first gear.   If someone can invent a way to unlock potential already waiting, its going to be well used and profitable for all involved.

This dynamic of usability being so important isn't new, I thought the same when Windows was still new.  I don't especially appreciate Microsoft or their founder but the product itself did tilt the world via enabling its users.  All AI has to do is enable people now in a similar way and its gigantic, its off the scale at least in potential.
    Ironically AI as a bubble or a real phenomena, its about the people.

It's not necessary to introduce new iPhone every year. Instead, produce one, very high quality smartphone once ever 5 year or so. We receive new iPhone every year and there is literally zero change in the smartphone, the same and same smartphone released every year. It's an internet meme of what iPhone designers do in Photoshop. A few click, resize shape, rotate and your iPhone is already designed. It's funny that some people are getting paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for 5 minute work. It's as crazy as Xiaomi paying $300000 in rounded logo.

All these things have been happening for decades, even before AI had entered the space. How do think were big tech firms were doing their operations before AI? Weren't they buying new equipment, upgrading their servers and everything, and using the same amount of energy even before because they need to run supercomputers and very large servers for their customers to have uninterrupted services? So, there is no point in pointing fingers on AI and saying that it is causing problems or making the world a worse place by making companies do extra things.

It's an understandable thing that when new technologies enter the scene, there will be both pros and cons of their usage, if something is created to provide more convenience to the humankind, it will also have its consequences, and we will have to understand that, and we will also have to understand and accept that these things can't be stopped, the world will keep progressing, new technologies will emerge and so will some problems with them, because as i said, there will always be pros and cons.