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This section needs more NFL threads. And I have yet another idea for a thread that I think is pretty good. The premise is simple: choose the 3 teams each week that you are confident will cover their spreads. That way if 2 or 3 picks are correct you will have profited. If only 1 is correct then yeah you take a small loss and of course 0 is a total loss.

I should have started this thread earlier to capture more data, but what can we do, its Week 4 of the season already, and I feel like I have an idea of whats going on. Let's see if I can prove that right, or wrong.

There is no reward for participation except for the pride of knowing you guessed correctly in public; perhaps even multiple times.

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So for example, here's my 3 picks for Week 4, taking into account a $100 bet (example) on each pick and showing the potential winnings:

Chargers to cover -6.5 against the Giants (-110): $90.91
Jets to cover +2.5 against the Dolphins (-110): $90.91
Jaguars to cover +3.5 against the 49ers (-110): $90.91

So if 2 of 3 games hit, that is a net profit of $81.82. The $$ figure is arbitrary, I just picked a round number to show an example of how hitting 2 of 3 bets is profitable. This is an experimental week. I'm not actually betting on these games. But if 2 or 3 picks hit then I will consider it for Week 5.

Uh oh, I'm 1-1 so far:


It all comes down to today's Jets/Dolphins game, which just started, and the Dolphins are already up by 3. When I "ran the numbers", it looked like an easy cover for the Jets. Especially taking into consideration that they almost beat the Buccaneers last week (they lost by 2 points at the end of the game), and the Bucs isn't that bad of a team. As a matter of fact they are currently 3-0.

Well it will be interesting to see how this first in a series of experiments concludes. At least it won't be a total wash.

Jets did not cover against the Dolphins so that means I only got 1/3 games and it would have been a losing proposition.

OK, going to do another one for research. I'm gonna be doing them all season but that doesn't necessarily mean I'm actually placing bets.

Let's try it again.

For week 5, here's 3 picks where if 2 or more hit the bet is profitable:

Eagles to cover against the Broncos (-3.5, -120)
Commanders to cover against the Chargers (+3, -115)
Chiefs to cover against Jaguars (-3, -118)

So if all 3 bets win, $100 on each pick would yield a profit of $255.04. 2 of 3 bets would yield between $68.08 and $71.71, depending on which team lost. So basically it takes about 3 wins to cover 2 losses... Shouldn't be undoable. C'mon, let's go.

I'd like to give it a try as well since we have a lot of interesting handicaps this week.

Vikings -3.5 vs. Browns for 1.97 odds
Titans +7.5 vs. Cardinals for 1.87 odds
Saints -2.5 vs Giants for 1.92 odds

Even though the Vikings have burned me in the previous rounds, I believe they got this one in the bag, considering the Browns haven't been scoring for more than 20 points.

If every one of them covers, it'd be $275 worth of profit, but that kind of assumption is too good to be true.

1-1 so far with chiefs to go. Looks like you're gonna need some more experimenting, but I like the idea.

Perfect score, hope you made bets on the games.

It wasn't the exact bet, but I did something similar (Vikings to win, Titans+10, and Saints to win) and threw them all in a parlay.  :D

https://talkimg.com/images/2025/10/06/UGvMMJ.png

I surely thought the Titans would've lost that game after seeing the Cardinals lead 21-3 around the first half. Once Kyler stepped out for a bit around the second half, their offense just lost the momentum.

Yeah I am gonna need more practice for sure. I just wanted a way to concretely timestamp my predictions in public to see if I can perform under pressure  :D

Its not going so well but its only been 2 weeks. Holding out some home that the Chiefs won't let me down. They only need 4 points, shouldn't be impossible against the Jags.


Nice... Yeah taking Saints -2.5 was pretty hairy for a 0-4 team but in the end betting on them to win was also a win. So congrats. 

I forgot to post the spreads i've got for this week, but here they are anyway.

Broncos -6.5 vs. Jets for 1.78 odds
Patriots -3.5 vs. Saints for 1.90 odds
Rams -6.5 vs. Ravens for 1.79 odds

I wanted to try and experiment with buying a point, since it could come down to that one final drive if the game state becomes very close throughout the first three quarters.

Another perfect run would pay $247, but that might be too much to ask after last week's 3/3.

I like

Colts -8.5
Dal -3
Pit -6

Colts have been crushing it and Kyler Murray is out. Jacoby Brissett will be starting. Colts should cover 8.5. Dallas record makes them look bad but this is the best Dak has been in his career. Aaron Rodgers is playing great football as well and as long as he can get time to throw they will cover this easily.


**EDIT**

Looks like only Pittsburgh is going to cover for my picks. Arizona D played well and Jacoby played better than Kyler would have in the Colts game. Dallas couldn't beat the Panthers, yuck.

I got a bit distracted last week but I wanna keep it going. Needed to get my picks in today because I really like the Steelers to cover -5 (-115) today against the Bengals.

For the other 2 lets take

Bears -4.5 (-115) and
Colts +1.5 (-105)

So far I am in the hole but lets see if I can make up for it this week.


Pretty close, 2 for 3.


1 for 3

I'm on the opposite side in the Steelers vs Bengals

Cincy+5.5
Giants +7
Colts+1.5

Not even sure how the Colts are underdogs vs the struggling Chargers. Feels like free money.

I almost thought losing that first pick was the start of my regression, but i'm glad the next two picks delivered.

After last week's matches, that puts my record to 5-1 with $344 profit, assuming it's $100 per pick.

Rams -3.5 vs. Jags @2.02 odds
Vikings +2.5 vs Eagles @1.90 odds
Panthers -1 vs Jets @1.90 odds

I couldn't be bothered buying points since it didn't matter last week, and I want to test the Vikings again, given these fishy odds against the SB champs.

Well, the first pick was something of a disaster, I thought for sure the Bengals would do worse than that. But anyway, at least I got 2 of 3 this week.

Let's take a look at how things have played out for my theoretical $100 picks so far, just so I can see how far behind I still am. I'm gonna switch to the other odds format as it makes more sense.

Week 4: $190.91-$300 = -$109.09
Week 5: $186.96-$300 = -$113.04
Week 7: $195.24 + $186.96 - $300 = $82.20

Total as of end of Week 7: -$139.93

So I need 1 3-0 week to get into the green. If I go 2/3, that will definitely help but I'll still be net negative.