Bitcoin Forum

We have learned a lesson in economics that when demand increases and supply becomes limited, the price of a product increases. In recent years, the demand for Bitcoin from public and private institutions has been increasing, and when compared to the new supply of Bitcoin, the ratio has increased many times over what it was in previous years.

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2025/10/08/UG7bxJ.jpeg

The demand and supply ratio has increased many times, which means that the price of Bitcoin is always increasing. So it is clear that if the demand for Bitcoin from public and private institutions continues to increase, then the price of Bitcoin will always be on an upward trend in the future.

In 2020, Demand : Supply= 446350 : 463318 = 0.963
In 2021, Demand : Supply= 132670 : 329288 = 0.402
In 2022 Demand : Supply = 86529 : 332425   = 0.2603
In 2023 Demand : Supply = 105398 : 337494 = 0.312
In 2024 Demand : Supply = 913006 : 217771 = 4.192
In 2025.. Demand: Supply= 944330 : 127622 = 7.4 (continue..)


It has been seen that the ratio of demand and supply in 2025 is many times higher than in previous years. That is, if the ratio of demand and new supply continues to increase like this, then in the future Bitcoin will definitely go to a price that will constantly give birth to new miracles.

Apart from demand and supply there are other factors that may affect the price of bitcoin for example government regulations and policies, if a government adopts bitcoin it brings about trust, therefore, more organisations and individuals will be willing to invest in bitcoin.

Again, when a government bans trading and mining or impose a heavy tax it also affects the price of bitcoin as was in the case of China.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1042443123000124

Another factor that can trigger the price of bitcoin  will be investors sentiment and market psychology. Imagine a prominent figure like Elon Musk  talking down on bitcoin, of course it will have a major effect on the price of bitcoin at that time.

And to think that this is all just the start. The list of institutions that got into Bitcoin remains relatively short. There are still thousands out there that have yet to embrace Bitcoin. Some are probably starting to look into it, some not yet, but others must already be considering it. After all, many are keeping huge cash reserves that are unproductive, if not slowly decaying. For these companies to allocate even 2-3% of that would catapult Bitcoin much higher.

I must say $1 million is a realistic target and it's going to happen sooner rather than later.

There is a big flaw in your post.

You only show the new supply in comparison to institutional demand. New supply by miners however is not the complete supply. There are several other sources:

- Old holders that take profits (that's actually a quite large part).
- Retailers taking profit
- Retailers spending coins because either they need to sell them to buy things, or they want to buy things directly with BTC.
- Retailers panicking because the price dipped.
- Traders trading with different strategies that involve selling coins (this is probably the largest part).
- All kinds of users that sell Bitcoin for altcoins.
- Institutional users taking profit or trading.

Measuring the total supply is impossible, but the volume traded on exchanges gives us a little insight. For example, today according to CoinGecko about 61 billion USD worth of Bitcoin were traded. That means that almost 500,000 BTC were sold today. In price crashes, up to a million are sold (and bought). In contrast, miners create about 450 BTC per day. They are almost insignificant.

Of course to analyze that further you will also have to look into the order books -- are people adding more sell or buy orders? What about short and long positions, what about leverage? And that is a lot of data to analyze. I haven't seen a really good breakdown of these numbers.

Now almost all technology institutions are competing to collect more bitcoins and they use government regulations to be able to take more. Look now the supply is circulating and the big owners are no longer individuals but large companies supported by government funds, an effective way to monopolize bitcoin.

And right now mostly it's coming from the US and japan institutional buyers, very small amount at that.

Just see what's gonna happen if the entire world will also do the same, the demand will increase significantly and 1 million price for a bitcoin is a piece of cake.
The current institutional buyers are still so early.

There are two big contributors for this: Bitcoin adoption leads to more demands on Bitcoin; Bitcoin halvings every 210,000 blocks result in less bitcoins in new block subsidy and it reduces (halves) the new supply 50% every four years.

While we know that within four years, Bitcoin adoption can change a lot and its adoption growth curve is very parabolic so 4, 8, 12, 16 years are very long time for making the balance between supply and demand different than years go.

The Supply and Demand Principle works in long term while in short term, most people in the market are affected by news, FUD, market volatility, bull and bear market while they forget about long term effects from Supply and Demand Principle.

If institutions have significant power to boost Bitcoin higher, they can also do the opposite. Besides, I don't like them contributing to demands. I should have gotten more than 8.2k sats for $10 today.

This is an economic concept, when discussing supply and demand, and we can perhaps see Bitcoin's journey through various events that can lead this asset to great heights. Every year, Bitcoin experiences rapid progress, and this occurs because more and more people believe in it, leading people to adopt hedging approaches. Besides demand and supply, there are other factors that can drive Bitcoin's price to its highest value. This asset is considered to have many advantages, so adoption continues to expand over time. The increasing number of people who begin to believe in Bitcoin will further propel this asset to a much more valuable level.

When comparing this increasing demand with the slower and much smaller price rise is the main reason why I consider bitcoin to be very undervalued these days. The price should have been a lot higher than what it is right now (half a million at least). The problem is the global economic situation that has caused a hardship and forced many people to liquidate their valuables (including bitcoin) to be able to cover the cost of their living over the past 2-3 years therefore creating a sell pressure preventing that rise.

The pandemic and consequences after that from economic, political to war issues around the world recent years are all big contributors against Bitcoin price growth and exploration in two latest market cycles especially the present market cycle.

With a lot of uncertainty, doubt from economic to geo political issues especially after Trump returned to the White House and has made a lot of chaos in his nation as well as global effects on other nations. I really don't expect this market cycle to have very last months of outperformances but I am positively about a next market cycle as well as other future market cycles. Trump will be in the White House 3 more years and things will be changed in the US as well as the globe.

Bitcoin can be affected in this cycle but soon nothing can stop Bitcoin growth and it is here for a long time with good performances and ROIs in the future. No cycle is as same as any past market cycle and I don't expect Bitcoin will have too high ROIs like it had in past cycles.

If it's done by institutions - they won't be able to sell it off fast.

So, nah, that won't happen, only naturally and gradually.

the scope of this data is quite small it only looks at institutions intere in bitcoin if we include total market demand, it might even present higher numbers than this so let’s keep in mind that we are only talking about institutional demand here

and if others are confused, “new supply” pertains to amount of bitcoins mined per year. bitcoin only has 21 million maximum so new supply just talks about bitcoin being introduced into circulation
the best we can gather from this data is that how the ratio spiked after 2023 is because of the halving event and acceptance of bitcoin etf which makes sense since we are talking about institutional demand after all

The price is usually a reflection of the value of Bitcoin. If Bitcoin is less valuable or people are unaware of its real value it would priced really low regardless of how much the so called institutions are holding. Beside, the institutions are rushing to benefit from the potential price gain like any other person. This is why they try to buy at the right time, like during halving or when there are positive/strong "arguments" or sentiments for Bitcoin. They don't buy whenever they want to because they are not the real determinant of the price, if they are, they will be able to consistently predict the price. The one who controls something can always predict its next move because he is the one moving it to any direction.
 By the way, the right predictions tend to come mostly from this forum. This should prove to you where the influence is based. But this or the miracles you mentioned (which the institutions or Bitcoin are incapable of) is impossible without our CREATOR.

The broader market situation or sentiment decides which would be higher.
We only see a fall in price when sell order on exchanges is higher than the Buy order
And this is based on various factors like those stated by d5000
So if we going to base it on mined supply, then Bitcoin value would have been in the seven digits by now.

Most of the demand comes when the coins are out of the circulation and coins that are lost.

If he wanted to make some case how Bitcoin's supply issuance is fantastic compared to the market demand it would be better, but like this it is a big flaw.

Some of these posts are terrible. Sometimes I see on reddit how a supply crunch is coming soon because the total balance of BTC on exchanges has been decreasing even though the number is still very high and it does not tell us anything really. If the price doubled today by some magical reason a lot of new supply would move to exchanges.

That is not the definition of demand.

Bitcoin is a digital currency created to be scarce over time, and their are factors that help to drive up the price of bitcoin.
Today , bitcoin is high demand, countries, institutions and individuals are heavily investing in bitcoin, thereby increasing demand and reducing the supply.
Bitcoin is always seeing all a new high in every bull season as many predictors are still very optimistic about bitcoin.

The demand for bitcoin is increasing daily and it is expected to increase in price even in the future, and couple with the high interest and demand, bitcoin will continue to surge.

Its a great thing to see Bitcoin in such a high demand now. I remember when people were so skeptical about bitcoin especially institutions and you had a handful of few very prominent early adopters but now I feel like Bitcoin has caught on quite a bit and what we are seeing now will only be a much greater demand and finite supply moving forward!

I agree with this. There was a time when Glassnode in their newsletter all the time predicted a bullish movement because of decreasing exchange volume. And what happened was often the exact contrary ... because exchange volume decrease often hints that there is less interest to trade Bitcoin and also to buy Bitcoin. The coins leaving the exchanges may be those moved by DCA buyers and "believers", while "fresh" demand simply doesn't arrive, with more supply than demand at exchanges as a result.

The only situation where exchange volume may matter is in situations of massive panic, because the exchange supply then determines the magnitude of an instant crash. If you have to transfer the coins to the exchange to sell them, it's more likely you may think about selling twice.

The supply/demand dynamic in the case of Bitcoin is quite complex, and in most cases people who make comparisons like the OP are comparing apples to oranges.

It may be the case however (and is quite likely) that institutional demand currently is superior than institutional supply, simply because institutionals entered the market massively only from 2024 on, and they tend to hold longer than other actors. But old hodlers and whales were very active selling Bitcoin (adding to the supply) in these last bullish months, for example in news like this one (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/8-bitcoin-holder-offloads-another-081534358.html). Which is expected because they have probably made fantastic profits.

People including whales can move bitcoins to centralized exchanges and withdraw their bitcoins from centralized exchanges. They also can move their bitcoins from wallets to wallets, and all of these on chain movement are not a big deal at all.

Only the crowd with curiosity and also undeterminant plans or even without plans for their investments, will pay attention on on-chain movements or even not on-chain movements that can be verified by themselves to feel more confident for holding or turn to be panic and would like to sell for immediate exit from the market.

Sometimes they simply rely on a post on X, a report that is pure words and unverifiable on-chain, and such news can be true or just FUD attempts. If people rely on such news and don't mind to verify it but automatically trust such news, they are most sensitive and vulnerable people in the market.

Of course, it will be, because Bitcoin is no longer considered a bubble. Even economists who were negative about Bitcoin a few years ago can now say that Bitcoin is suitable for investment. Furthermore, there's the reality of ETFs, and even retirement funds can now include Bitcoin. This naturally creates a large demand. Meeting this demand is virtually constant. It wouldn't be wrong to expect the price to rise due to the fixed supply. I think the Bitcoin price will continue its upward trend after this year.

Institutions love sensation,
so don't worry on their selling techniques, but on the market's reaction when they shout that at X.

I didn't know about those. Dunning kruger example of false expertise I guess? I have no idea otherwise why they would write things with such certainty when there is no prior proof that they work.

Yes, for more specific situations like that it can tell us something. It is mostly people who regularly store coins on exchanges that are among the panic sellers. If you have a very strong cold storage setup it is very unlikely that you will go and do everything needed to move the coins just because the market is panicking.

Yeah, I mean a supply crunch is not impossible but not in the current situation and with the current supply of available BTC on the markets. We would need to get a lot of diamond hands people who don't basically plan to sell ever before we can consider a chance of this happening.

Massive profit! Though I don't fully understand these moves unless the whales or old hodlers have another big bag of coins. There is no better thing than Bitcoin out there right now and there probably won't be for a long time. I can understand building a bit more diversified portfolio but going back fully to fiat? That's crazy.

People need to wake up and protect themselves and their assets, plus get in before your scenario plays out.

Well, that's already happening, if you ask me. Most of us didn't expect Bitcoin to reach this price in this cycle, I personally thought that it would be great if Bitcoin makes it to $100k, but look at it, and we still don't know how farther it's going to go in this cycle, because we are still not done with the bull run. Also, Bitcoin surprised everyone with its growth even before the halving. Usually, we have seen in the past that the price starts going up after the halving, but in this cycle, it broke above its previous ATH even before the halving.

So yeah, miracles are happening, milestone are being touched, and this will keep happening in the future as well. It's clear that when someone goes up, it has to come down as well, so bear markets will be there as well, of course, but one thing is clear, that after every bear market, the price of Bitcoin will go higher, and the bottom price for each bear market will start going higher over time.