Bitcoin Forum

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Do you know about this Benner's Theory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benner_Cycle) by Samuel Benner? I happen to see this theory and it's not actually for Bitcoin but for the usual markets, stocks, the recession, panics and booming of markets.

As with the legend;

A. Years of panic and when it's likely to happen.
B. Bull run, high prices and time to sell.
C. Likely the bear market and best time to buy.

So, this was made in 1875 when Samuel Benner referenced to the market cycles in the past from 1700s to 1870s. He's predicting for 150 years of the market and when the squeezes, panics, bearish and bull runs are likely to come for the typical markets.

For more info(his book): BENNER'S PROPHECIES OF FUTURE UPS AND DOWNS IN PRICES.  (https://stock-market-observations.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/benners-prophecies-of-future-ups-and-downs-in-prices-by-samuel-benner.pdf)

What I think that it might not be as accurate if people are too meticulous but it's a close call for what he's done for the dot bubble, recession, etc.

While it points out to 2026 as the good time to sell, I think it's only from early 2026 and then as we know from the 4-year cycle, it will start to go into bearish which is what the line does up to 2032 but missing the next bull run based on the 4-year cycle of 2029.

Bitcoin is a speculative asset so, theories like this have come out and people try to correlate it. I'm not saying that this will be followed but what do you think? is it Bitcoin that shall break this theory or it's got some points about the most important part of the next cycles which is likely from 2032-2036 as it tells 2035 is the peak of it.

To be honest, I still lean with the 4-year cycle and it's easier to understand how Bitcoin does with that chart. I just set the halving years and likely after that the years for potential bull runs.

2020 halving ~> 2021 bull run
2024 halving ~> 2025 bull run
2028 halving ~> 2029 bull run
2032 halving ~> 2033 bull run (additional 1-year of 2034 telling that it's gonna be the peak if the same happens early 2026 then bears come)
2036 halving ~> 2037 bull run
2040 halving ~> 2041 bull run
2043 halving ~> 2044 bull run (2043 based on the theory that it's a bull run)

My opinion: I think that it does makes sense that his theories and calls for the best and peak moments in the markets are so close to potential bull runs of Bitcoin related to 4 year cycles like having a +/- year for it happen. Although they're not 100% accurate but if you get my point, I mean very close calls since the theory was made centuries ago.

Reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benner_Cycle

You can consider it as a super cycle but I don't care too much about it as I am thinking more about natural shrinking price growth cycle by cycle. I have strong belief that Bitcoin will continue having good price growth each market cycle, and that means Bitcoin market cap will continue rising cycle by cycle and becoming bigger and bigger.

I believe that all of us knowing a common fact that when an asset's market cap becomes bigger and bigger, it will become harder to rise with same ROI like its past market cycles. Bitcoin will not be an exception and there will be nothing like a cycle that falls in to time of a super cycle and can help Bitcoin suddenly having very high ROI in that cycle.

This theory talks about price movements in the market, but one thing many people don’t understand is that Bitcoin doesn’t have a price, because Bitcoin is money, and money doesn’t have a price  it only has an exchange rate.Money is a medium of exchange, a tool for preserving value, and a measure of value.

Bitcoin has an exchange rate its value is not a “price” in the classical sense, but rather how much it can be exchanged for another currency.Bitcoin doesn’t depend on how many people buy or sell it, but on how many people accept it as money for storing value, exchanging, and settling payments.It depends on the productivity of the people who use Bitcoin as their money, both as a medium of exchange and a store of value.For example, if you are a Bitcoin user and use Bitcoin as your money, it depends on your productivity. If you are better at your craft and earn more, you can save more in Bitcoin.Similarly, if a company like Michael Saylor’s is more productive and earns more, it can also earn and save more in Bitcoin.

The more people use Bitcoin for storing and exchanging value, the higher its exchange rate against the dollar.

In other words, the greater the demand and acceptance of Bitcoin as money, the higher its value relative to other currencies.

So Benner's Theory doesn’t apply to Bitcoin, because we are talking about money, not a tradable asset with a price.

This is only a prediction from him, as much as I'm not a stocks and bond person, I must mention that this shouldn't be applicable to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is an asset which people should buy and hold and not one that should be timed and sold off with seasons. If I should go with this your chart, those who sold off in 2019 would really be regretting following the charts now that Bitcoin price is well over $100k and made an ATH of $126k recently. Bitcoin has defied every timing formula while the only effective one is to buy and hold and go long-term in it.

There are things you never know about it comprehensively but it still works behind the scene, so if you absorb information from Benner's theory and the graphic, you can make your investment and financial plans, and to be more careful with your financial decisions in likely bad years. It's helpful and good for your plans in long term as basically if you can protect your money, you are well even you don't get profit.

Going long term with Bitcoin is very good advice and it is a safest way to invest, get profit with lowest risk of losing money from your investment. I would like to contribute an extra information on a kind of minimum time of holding for profit.

According to history that is reflected on this hodl camp chart, the safe holding time for profit is about five years.
https://hodl.camp/

I've searched the web a bit about this theory and it seems the justification is not very profound, basically an early psychological market theory. It could be seen as a predecessor of the Elliott Wave theory, but Elliott tried to identify patterns in the price movements, not only to predict timeframes when "panics" and "good times" occur.

Elliott Waves can be sometimes helpful to identify the sentiment in a particular point of market history and its typical price pattern, for example the exaggerated "final bull runs" and subsequent panic crashes. However adhering too strict on its mathematical foundations (e.g. trying to identify exact Fibonacci retracements) IMO may lead to misunderstandings. See the history of this thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5528521.msg65484902#msg65484902) and its predecessors.

I think personally cycle theories with some "foundation" behind them like Elliott waves are better than the simple 4 year cycle. Even if the 4 year cycle seems to be about to repeat for the third time (2013-17, 17-21 and 21-25) it could be a self fulfilling prophecy at this point.

This is what Bitcoin "ideally" is, but currently unfortunately I disagree that its price moves like that of a currency. Usage of Bitcoin is currently mainly speculative, so it makes sense to compare it with an asset and apply cycle theories to it.

I also am quite sure that a very old theory like Benner's is not really applicable to Bitcoin but the mass psychology foundations to identify periods of positive and negative sentiment are sometimes helpful.

This kind of thing cannot be a reference in the movement of bitcoin, but there are anomalies that cannot be explained in general, there are similarities that we can see from the graph with market conditions, especially in the amount of money in circulation and influencing prices, how much money is printed in the world will have an impact on chart data, on the other hand there will also be withdrawals, this cycle seems to have quite a deep connection, especially today bitcoin is also traded by institutions and this will be  additional effects when these institutions use the same tools to believe in a theory.

If your goal is long term, buying and saving is the best choice, you just have to be ready and strong in the market turmoil that will come in the future, or even better if we make purchases continuously when the turmoil is happening.

Benner's theory is definitely outdated, and the note "sure thing" at the bottom of the card made me smile. But what surprises me is that the general pattern of ups and downs is still accurate. It has to do, perhaps, with the people's sentiments in general (we all have ups and downs) and in the case of Bitcoin if enough people thinks that the price will go up/down, it can be enough to make it happen.

But Benner's theory, and the theory of Bitcoin's 4 year cycle, only applies to assets and markets with a potential of continuity. We have seen it with altcoins/shitcoins that didn't follow the pattern and simply died because of their poor fundamentals. So long live the Bitcoin, and hopefully we will see patterns similar to the ones analysed for a long time.

Yes and no.  I understand what you are trying to say but you are contradicting yourself.  If Bitcoin has an exchange rate, it has a price.  You could also say bread has an exchange rate instead of a price.  After all, bread depends not on how many people buy or sell it but on how many people accept it as essential food.

If we are talking about money then why has the United States Dollar lost purchasing power every time there was a crisis?  Dollars are also money.  Dirty, but money.  Dirty money.  And then what do you even mean when you say Bitcoin is not a tradable asset with a price?  This is absurd.

It is foolish to say such theories can not apply to Bitcoin at all considering Bitcoin has cycles.  Or what, are you saying that Bitcoin has a lot of people are extremely volatile in accepting Bitcoin or not as 'money for storing value, exchanging and settling payments'?  Other wise, how would you explain Bitcoin ups and downs on the chart if this is what the 'exchange rate' depends on.

Bitcoin is money.  Real money if you ask me.  But saying all these things as if Bitcoin is some divine currency that is different from any thing else, a hybrid of money and assets and every thing but nothing at the same time, this is absurd really.

Absolutely speculations but we don't need bothering about it because there is no way the so formula can be adopted into the space if it has never been a property of the bitcoin core.
I may not understand where else you are driven to but I can tell you that the utility use case of bitcoin allows users to spend it in their best interests. Bitcoin is a currency which can be spent for regular payment of goods and services while it edge of holding values overtime the long time is what makes it an asset. So you can not defined it best of how to use it while volatility and inflations is makes it more interesting to be hold for an asset.



At some points most people who has sold on the good profits actually regrets and assume they sold at lost when new Ath is met. That is why long term holding is satisfying but yet no one will hold forever unless it has become inheritance assets else, selling at any satisfying profits should be okay not to regrets if knowing bitcoin does not have a max price.

Theories like this will better help any investor and economist who can relate it to the real world market do well in Bitcoin investment as well, because it helps one breakdown and have a clear picture of when to go all in or not, that's if they draw out the history records alongside analytics tools.

It may not be concise though, but if Satoshi's white paper of Bitcoin could play out just right amidst the FOMO that came with halving and other events, what's to think that this Benner's theory isn't efficient enough in the current currency market, except that am sure this theory is older than the existence of Bitcoin itself and should only be better adapted to traditional currency system and not Bitcoin as a crypto currency.

I'm sure I've responded to this chart in this same board years ago. I can't find the thread anymore.

Anyway, it's not accurate. As far as Bitcoin is concerned, 2016, for example, is certainly not a time to sell.

Especially in this age of globalization, it might be a case of oversimplification. Surely, there are way more factors to consider these days than in the 1800s.

Also, one has to take note that Benner predicts the price of such and such "in the markets of our country". And if you use it as a guide in your own country, it might be a different setting altogether. The world doesn't share a uniform rise and fall of the prices of fat hogs and pig-irons and corn.

Yeah, we're seeing and any other theories or cycles that are from the other markets or even with crypto, it's always been unpredictable but ROI that it does is going to breakthrough the history.

It has a price and if it doesn't have any price at all, nobody cares about its value as it's going to be some flashy internet money that no one will be interested with.

And so as with its price, being volatile makes it even a great considered store of value. Money/fiat has a price or value as well and it's backed by gold.

Its value has got its price and so it becomes valuable and people moving towards of having it.

While I just seen this theory and it does got some cycles that seems close to the bull runs that we've got.

Yes, it's Benner's theory and prediction. I'm just amused on how there seems to be cycles in all of the markets just like with Bitcoin. While the past from the bull runs that we've got with Bitcoin can't be compared to the ones that we have recently.

What I think is that there will be a greater high based on what the peak it tells.

Now that you've said about Elliott Wave theory, it really looks that this was its reference. But I agree that if it's about theories, I guess that Elliot's better than this one.

It's only for a reference that there are cycles in the markets and I think if Benner is alive today, he'd make one that's specific for bitcoin. So, there's this history of cycles that are repetitive but yeah, it's completely in different markets.

But as for the timelines that it has given, it only requires +/- a year for it to hit. It's not a 100% accurate at all and any theories are but it seems that there are points that can be close to the 4-year cycle that bitcoin has.

Well, I've just seen the theory and found it interesting that like in Bitcoin. In the past centuries, there have been panics, good times and the same cycles that we experience now.

This Benner guy "predicted that 2019 is going to be a year with panic on the markets(wrong).
He also "predicted" that 1935 and 1972 would be "good" years. His predictions about a bunch of "bad years" were also clearly wrong.
Should we trust a guy, who lived back in 1875 and tried to predict the price movements on the financial markets based on historical(and a little bit of statistical) data. The financial markets aren't so easy to predict. There are political decisions and technological breakthroughs that have big influence over the markets and this guy would never have predicted the dot com bubble or the AI bubble.
There's nothing to worry about. Bitcoin will be just fine(I guess). ;D

2019 is a bear market so is it a wrong prediction?

I think very different than you and it's prediction on cycle with inaccuracy of absolute years but the cycle can be shorter or longer a little bit than previous cycles as well as any prediction. Honestly I don't pay my attention on his predictions on years like 1935 and 1972 as I only care about the latest years which I had chances of being part of it by myself.

I check with Down Jones with this source and you ar wrong as 1935 and 1972 are quite bullish years, so he was not wrong.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

He was right when he talked about economics in a cyclical way. Economy goes in bull cycles and in bear cycles. He got that one right but of course this is an outdated theory and he never factored in technological advancements such as bitcoin. But just international trade wasn't considered.
I never expect this theory to be accurate. He might have just guessed and we are trying to validate everything he has said. Since the theory was ages ago, we can simply debunk it.

It's not about trusting him but just comparing with what actually happened from the years that he's made with that chart.

The close calls about it were really inaccurate and that's why there's like a window of +/- year for each of them.

But we all do agree that truly Bitcoin is going to be fine for the next years to come.

That's the point, the markets are cyclical and despite with the changes, he's still relevant up to this day even with technological advances that we're having.

Yup, we've got a lot of market experts nowadays and times has change but the point was still there. And the fact that some theories likely were made and reference to his, shows that it was a good one.