Bitcoin Forum

I want to share my thoughts about the crypto market now. Every new crypto cycle is smaller and slower than the one before. This is normal, but this time, things have changed and sometimes I feel like it's we are gambling not analyzing.
The market whales support only a few coins (well, the popular ones only). Because of that, we are in a time of change. The good results will come later, maybe in the next few years, not this year.
This cycle is bad for altcoins. Most of the money goes to Bitcoin only. Because of many political events, altcoins have not moved much, there is too much pressure from Bitcoin and the news.
Many people (including me) had big hopes for altcoins, but the results are small. Now, Ethereum will decide when altcoins can start to grow again.
The Friday drop was fast, but it went up again in 15 minutes, that shows the market wants to go higher. If it was a real crash, it would continue down, but it didn’t.
So, be ready for smaller numbers than what you dream of. This is not negative, it’s just how the market is now. Maybe I’m wrong, but I wanted to share my point of view with you.
Let me know what you guys think!

My only notice is that the space is getting more saturated and much of manipulation from the government, institution and big firms. Also, there's a great adoption for crypto already being the future.

There are no crypto cycles, only Bitcoin cycles.

Bitcoin is important. Everything else is distraction Due to Bitcoin's monetary policy, where inflation halves every four years, Bitcoin has experienced growth in purchasing power relative to fiat currencies What attracted the crowds of people, who most likely didn’t even understand what it was about
Various fraudsters have exploited people's lack of understanding of Bitcoin and the ingrained fiat gambling mindset to take advantage of them They started creating piles of scam shitcoins. New people who came in, and didn’t understand what money or Bitcoin is,difference between Bitcoin and shitcoins. were easily fooled because they thought Bitcoin was too expensive for them. They would buy some shitcoin that might jump like Bitcoin, and that’s how the whole scam crypto industry was born.But shitcoins are worthless and have no real monetary value. They exist only for pump-and-dump schemes, so the founders can fill their pockets at the expense of naive and inexperienced buyers. Many people ended up losing their money on shitcoins, while realizing that Bitcoin just keeps rising  some left the space entirely, and others became Bitcoiners.That’s why altcoin seasons get weaker after each Bitcoin cycle Shitcoins will eventually go to zero. Unfortunately, many people who don’t understand Bitcoin and waste their time on shitcoins will end up with nothing

It doesn't just feel different, it is. But have to say, what you pointed out wasn't top shelf in my view.

You feel it's more gambling now? I don't know but I lived in an era when this entire forum was brimming with ICOs. Signature campaigns giving away tens of thousands of scores of tokens. Some really famous members here were escrowing money for ICOs, others ran their own. Not one is alive today (please don't argue some still have market pairs). Last cycle? We saw monkey NFT ads on prime tv, memecoin shibashit full blown ads on London tube and buses. Ads all over social media. How many of those are doing well today?

Those were the true cowboy-yolo-all-in-fkitletsgamble. I'm glad there'll never be another altseason matching those days. Countless people parted with their BTC to get into that nonsense.

More involvement from traditional institutions, yes, that's particularly visible this cycle.

Before the bull run set in, there were speculations that altcoins would experience a rise after Bitcoin.  Many people were expecting to make so much money because they assumed every circle would run the same way. We never saw that happen and I think many people are regretting now because some sold Bitcoin to stack these shitcoins. Institutional investors are smart to know where to invest. They are aware that most of these altcoins are worthless, hence they decide to put more funds into Bitcoin. Nothing has changed, only that investors are becoming difficult to deceive since they are now experienced in differentiating between the real coin and others.

Is this not why we are all expected to make research for our own good before investing in any coin, I have learnt one thing about cryptocurrency, that any coin can perform at anytime and for any reason, but knowing or having that discernment that could help us identify which is what many may not have adequately enough, that is why some eventually ends their decision on coins that won't perform well for them after investing with the hope of making profits.

According to the cycle theory it is pretty much on track with the other cycles. The main difference is that shitcoins are getting destroyed this time around. What is different?


This is not related to Bitcoin and is not an argument that the cycle is different. You should move this topic to the altcoin section instead.

People fail to see the bigger picture, they can't connect that 2+2 leads to the same as 2*2 but you get it Each cycle was brimming with its own share of trendy things and scams. Firstly it was people forking and making their own altcoins without any real features except changes to the algorithm and economics. Then ICOs, then IEOs, NFTs, Ordinals, Runes, memes, whatever. Just because before it was NFTs and now memes that doesn't mean anything is different. Each cycle has its own trendy things that fade into irrelevance. The essence is the same.

You're emphasizing that most crypto investors fail because they skip the research phase. While any coin can potentially perform well, the key difference between successful and unsuccessful investors is discernment the ability to identify which coins are worth investing in versus which will underperform.

Many people chase FOMO or follow others and gains without understanding what they're actually buying. Those who end up disappointed typically invested based on hype rather than actual analysis. Success requires doing your own research to understand the project, team, use case, and market conditions before investing. Without this groundwork, you're essentially gambling rather than making informed decisions.

When I opened the thread I thought it was about bitcoin it came in as a bitcoin discussion but not really, however I would agree with you that this particular bull run is so different from what I know and read and heard of but to my surprise it got to my turn to see bitcoin BOM before December and altcoin season too happen but it seems it's not what I used to know now it must have changed before I came in.

Not many altcoin have actually been able to reach ATH this far into this bull cycle – nothing strange in my opinion, but I agree that this is different compared to previous cycles. The long-awaited altcoin season didn't arrive during this bullrun - only a few altcoins actually reached new ATH. I don't know - I think investors are starting to know which ones are most profitable, but there's always room for change in the crypto market.

The thing this particular cycle is governed with so many factors that were not there before, first is the ETF approval that brought about institutions and this institutions are the reason why we have volatility not been so volatile like in the past even though we know as the time goes on it will be like this. Then we have all this economic fights between some top economic countries and this is actually affecting the cryptocurrency market,

Also concerning Altcoins it is actually a thing that many people actually have turned from throwing away their money gambling on multiple or random Altcoins looking for a lucky pump to actually Focusing on bitcoin and most importantly alts that are not so volatile although it is not that gurantee for anyone but it is the reason why most coins are dying and reason why most will never see any ATH ever again

After all I have to respect with the topic caption.
This year cycle feel different due to irregular volatility of Bitcoin. Whalers and other investors have their different manners of market reactions. So we don't need to expect volatility movements will always repeat itself


Nomatter how much experience you may have in analysing Bitcoin volatilities, even when applied all the resources components that regulates regulates the volatilities, you will never get it right else, if you want to adopt studying the market as a profession, you will end up at the risk side of troubling your emotions while you will usually get it wrong as Bitcoin volatility maybe unpredictable.

Everytime I see people who hyped up altcoin season for this year, I always remembered that wall street and big investor like MSTR would never jump into some shit tier altcoin.
They just deemed it unworthy so the altcoin season might not be coming around and even if it does, the gain will not be so big. So tune done the expectation, maybe it's time for holding bitcoin?

I think what makes this year's market cycle different from previous cycles is the participation of institutions, ETFs. They only focus on bitcoin, they don't care about altcoins.


Also, perhaps the main reason is that the number of altcoins in this season is so large that the altcoin market is seriously fragmented. That is also the reason why we often see that every time bitcoin price increases, altcoins also increase, but not simultaneously but in small groups, in narratives.

Things have really changed, altcoin investors need to adapt and change strategies.

1.Where do you see the "gambling" aspect in the Bitcoin market? I think that Bitcoin is more stable than it ever has been. If the year was 2017, the BTC price would've collapsed down to 50K USD right after a 125K USD ATH. The traders, the crypto whales and the institutional investors believe in Bitcoin and we can see this by how the price still stays at 110K USD.
2.What do you mean by Ethereum "deciding" when the altcoins would start to grow? I don't know about Ethereum "making such decisions". ;D
The altcoin market would grow if Bitcoin grows. Altcoins are just a supplement to Bitcoin, not a competitor. If you want 10x or 50x gains, you should focus on the memecoin market, but this is where the real gambling happens.

You have speculations that on average have almost the same thoughts as other users, that's something normal, Bitcoin was first created and released on the market, Not many Bitcoins appeared, you could count them on your fingers, at that time people were just learning about crypto, many people, especially investors, still believed in Altcoins.

As time goes by, many Altcoins have become frauds so that investors no longer believe in investing in Altcoins, so it is natural that the crypto market cycle has changed a lot compared to before. Moreover, nowadays investors only believe in Bitcoin for various reasons and no longer believe in Altcoins for various reasons.

I like the concluding part  of this statement, I believe the market have become More competitive/ manipulated, because of various interest and institutional and government getting involved this bring so much interference and possible interruption of the crypto market like what we saw with Bitcoin last few days Bitcoin ETF and institutional whales are beginning to manipulate the market.

Altcoins are worst off, we need to stay away from them as much as possible, because no altcoins season have long term existence history haven't recorded any success in that direction.

Yes things have changed with different involvement since the previous halving.
Gambling? the "crypto" markets were always a gamble, even the Bitcoin market
can be a gamble for a lot of traders - nothing has changed in terms of gambling/analyzing.

 
So its been pointed out for many years that altcoins are a gamble and the mistake
so many people have made is believing in them before considering Bitcoin.
Thats the mistake the OP has made.

The results are small and will probably diminish even further. I am glad I ditched my
altcoins many moons ago.

The market is very much unpredictable and this cycle has made things even worst than it use to be to predict. Ethereum is the leader of all the altcoins and until we see a major pump in Ethereum will all other altcoins follow suit. Bitcoin may be the head of all other altcoins including Ethereum, but the effect it has on them doesn’t last for long that we see the market make a major change for the altcoin season. For the altcoin season to be full in action, we need to see Ethereum making the waves even when Bitcoin dominance has already lost it at that time.

The new leadership administration has a lot to do with the turn on the crypto community, rate of involvement of governmental bodies, big institutions and more enthusiasts. This has affected the way the crypto market has been watched from years back. Economic crisis has loud effect in the market, there are market manipulations these recent times, just like the high volume liquidation which happened recently. The crypto market has never been unstable compared to what 2025 has shown. This year's bullish trend on Bitcoin overshadowed the altcoins, making the altcoins season not to be recognized all through the bullish market.

A lot of changes has come into this community, and I'm afraid we might be seeing more of it.

The problem is that the leader is a centralized shitcoin and there are many new altcoins that do everything that Ethereum does but much better. Why would anyone want Ethereum these days?

The changes in the US administration have not been the main factor driving the differences in the cycle. That altcoins are being overshadowed has nothing to do with this. A lot of people believes in a lot of lies regarding altcoins during the COVID pandemic. They have lost a lot of money on them and it is because of this that they tend to stay away these days. What is worse also is that they are many more altcoins these days, coins and tokens that are practically the same and useless they don't do anything at all. As far as Bitcoin itself is concerned it has been steadily going mostly along the same cycle path that it is supposed to go. There are always going to be some differences and the timing of peaks and lows will not happen on the same days between the cycles, but that does not mean that something is much different.

It is because this time it is different.

It really is, just like the last time was also different than before.

Actually it is always different and same at the same time.

Instead of focusing on the noise, it is better to stick with the facts.

The fact is btc is still superior to FIAT money which is dying.

That was the same fundamental that drove btc to $100 and it is still the same one that took btc to $120k.

There's no big deal of a manipulation around that's more than what has been the case in the past. The main thing is  that with an increased adoption and enthusiast already crowding the system, there's every tendency that false speculation might be available and over ambitious expectation might also lead to we assuming that bitcoin is not doing as much as it should be doing.

While you might just see government regulations, I'm seeing that how bitcoin is standing strong and tough in the midst of such regulations creating multiple ATH upon ATH. As times changes, so is the response of bitcoin to different circles going to change.

ETF made it feel different. Between the price increase when trump won the election, and the price increase when ETF's happened, we didn't had a period where we had "insane" amount of increase in short span of time. While it still did went up, it was much slower this time around and happened in few parts, and not all on a single period. Back in the day when this kind of increase happened, it was quicker, it moved from under 10k to over 60k in a month and we went crazy about it.

This time around we had a period where we moved from under 20k to over 120k but it happened over course a full year and that is why we didn't feel a sudden increase. This is why nobody really felt like it was ever bull, they all felt small increases, never big one, because big one happened long term.

You're right, most of the liquidity is going to Bitcoin, and altcoins are suffering this season due to a lack of liquidity. We've only seen some minor increases in some altcoins.

But in my opinion, there's another reason besides the liquidity going to Bitcoin, which is the large amount of liquidity going to meme coins. Meme coins are completely draining the market due to the massive number of memes being released every day, especially memes of presidents and celebrities, which have significantly drained the market.

Every project developers and teams are trying hard to make their project trend and the only way to do that is to get investors to buy and hold their tokens. Influencers are using media both social and news to pull the trigger so that new investors can buy their shitcoins while planning to dump the project when investors finally bought enough bags.

The manipulation in the market has been responsible for the failed crypto cycle and many big companies want to be seeing their profits reading like a map contours. When there players were not that much in the market, the price of Bitcoin and altcoins were stable and moving well and people were able to analyze the price of Bitcoin but now, shits are happening.

Exactly. The monetary value of bitcoin at it limited supplies with the inflation hedge and the major market driving players which is demand and supplies with it decentralized concept has the characters that regulates volatilities. And while volatility maybe unpredictable following adoption rates, economy and political news will be at it own propelling investors psychological behaviors which effectively influences their decisions in the market.
So if the market can be manipulated with the assorted key points, then we don't need to expect repetition volatilities while 4 years market events may also be uncertainty in the future.

Do you think is not a good idea for storing money in BTC? We know that once money enter someone hand or bank very easy to spend, ut if it is wallet you store the BTC it will be hard for someone to sell BTC when there is still bear.


What people have experienced from this season will make many people to invest in BTC and hodl for long years, because the price of BTC always hit higher in every season. Many institutions and individuals have joined crypto investment , that is why this season crypto cycle is different from the seasons we have  experienced in the industry.

I always laugh a bit at the people that charge to say this time is different during every single cycle and then it proves to be the same with minor differences. Yeah the events within and around Bitcoin change a lot but they rush here to claim everything is different without even putting up a comparison picture of the previous cycle to the current one.

Precisely the point, there is only one truly decentralized network with a fixed supply and the security that Bitcoin has. It is the only finite hard money in an every inflating world where the money printer does not stop. The world is out of control. They print all the time, when things are good but also when things are bad.

You can't store money in BTC, you can store value by converting something else to BTC. Bitcoin has a very good store of value function, it is one of the best things that you could choose. Many would say it is the best thing and that there is no debate.

This is incorrect nonsense. Selling Bitcoin is easy in both a bull and a bear market. It has a lot of liquidity and unless someone is on the level of Microstrategy then there is no problem selling the amount that you have.