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Let's talk about information asymmetry in gambling. Many believe that the information asymmetry between bookmakers and players is so enormous, even insurmountable, that players have no chance of winning long-term in sports betting. In other words, gamblers attribute long-term losses to information asymmetry. But let's consider whether this asymmetry is truly so great. Does a bookmaker really know so much more about upcoming sports matches than players today that it's almost impossible for a player to win?
Yet, we live in the age of free neural networks, and we have access to a fantastic amount of free and relatively high-quality information. So, does information asymmetry exist?

AI could be a game changer but then bookmakers probably have access to more advanced ai products to counter the player behavior. It doesn’t look good for the players but if it id, then the whole industry would collapse. The industry is boomin because casinos making good money. I think it is way too hard to win against the bookmakers especially in this day and age. Starting a business and finding customers is probably an easier task if you want to make money. Another idea is that you can start your own casino and find players. I mean since it is a very profitable business, entrepreneurs all around the world should consider getting into this field. This business is printing money man. Bitcointalk is filled with casino ads look at that, It wasn’t as lively as this ever since the ICO era. Anyway brb gotta go play some roulette.

I had to search what 'asymmetry' means, I didn't understand, and then I searched for 'symmetry' and thought I do, and finally I searched for 'information asymmetry' term itself and now I finally understand what you mean.

Now on topic, tbh I don't understand how exactly this works in sports betting (despite understanding the term itself), so I don't have anything to say.

PS: This is bitcointalk tip #101, how to make a shitpost in gambling section. (unless this gets deleted, then you don't follow this tip).

Edit: Edit

Edit 2: Clarification added.

It still looks like the bookies have access to more information that the regular gamblers as evident in the way they arrange the odds of the various matches. @Julien_Olynpic have you seen a situation whereby the odd of a particular team suddenly drop few minutes to the kickoff time, lo and behold when the match starts the team scores within 10 minutes into the match? I have seen this several times and it points to the fact that the bookies indeed have privileged information. However, I have learnt not to make this reality stick to my head so that I can gamble freely believing that if I analyze game well, my chances of winning will increase.

No, the bookmakers don't really know more than us in gambling, but we sometimes make things more complicated for ourselves by playing extremely high and have a reduced chances of winning, while on a normal day, gamblers will play more than two selections in betting, while on a neutral ground, the chance of winning to losing is 50x50 chance, that when we play, we either lose or winning, while when we also play like it has been said earlier the gamblers way, we even have more chances of losing than winning.

Information asymmetry exists everywhere, from the financial markets to sports betting, but I'm not an expect on information asymmetry and I cannot provide a proper analysis. I'm not very good at math and statistics. We need to find someone, who is really good at math and statistics to tell us more about the subject.
Do you really know how the bookmakers are making their money? I think that a bookmaker makes money regardless of the outcome of sports events. Bookmakers gather fees from the bets made by the ordinary people. The idea of a bookmaker knowing the results of all sports games seems more like a conspiracy theory to me, but I see many bettors believe in this conspiracy.

I think the importance of the information that the bookmaker has about matches is somewhat overrated, because there are so many matches now, and it’s hard for me to believe that the bookmaker can study each of them in detail much better than players can. A bookmaker can only gain an advantage if they have some insider information, possibly about fixed matches or something like that. In all other cases, the bookmaker and the player have equal chances, of course, if you exclude the fact that the bookmaker initially includes their own margin in the odds.

AI is not of any benefits regarding this because the AI can not be able to make profit from the gambling site EV calculations. Also in sport betting, AI can not do more than what the predictions sites were doing before for predicting matches. What the OP of this thread said is true and there is nothing that gamblers can do about it.

If you truly believe that users are actually gaining an edge against the operators of sports-betting, then compare the average profit of a sports-bettor from 30 years ago, 20 years ago, 10 years ago, then today.

Plus compare the size of the sports-betting industry in those time frames. If it's growing, which it's OBVIOUSLY IS, then the bookmakers really know so much more than plebs like us. It's probably like trading. There are only a few people who win consistently. Plebs like us are NOT those people.

Bookies don’t need to beat us to make a profit. All they need is to set the right betting line that attracts action on both sides, keeping things balanced. They earn from the commission, so they won’t have a problem paying out the winners.

Don’t overthink it, the oddsmakers aren’t just looking at stats alone. What they really focus on is how the public perceives those stats. From there, they create the odds designed to pull in bets from both sides. That way, no matter who wins, they still make money.

Bookmarkers might have insider information because they have the connection and financial capacity to access them. However, tools and data needed to analyse and predict games are available to all to access. With access to artificial intelligence, you can easily get any information and engage in analysis. Players are not winning long term not because they are don't have access to quality information but because some games are unpredictable. Even bookmakers odds sometimes do not accurately predict the outcome of the game.

What do you think? Compare the bookmakers' profits with the bettors' profits, or rather losses. Only a small percentage have sustained profits in the long term.


That's right, it's not just that they handle statistics better, it's that they set up the odds in a way that is profitable for them.

Maybe they did, but how would that even help them? A sportsbook’s job is to offer lines that attract action on both sides, not act like a bank and take one side forever. If a bookie started using inside info to tilt things, bettors would just move to other books, bad for business and reputation.

Also most shops don’t make lines from scratch, they use odds providers and market feeds. So for a bookie to secretly rig lines in their favour they'd need control of the feed or be trading the market, and that’s risky, markets move fast and other books will react. Bottom line, it’s a serious accusation and would destroy trust, so don’t jump to conclusions unless there’s real proof.

I think information asymmetry no longer exist, everyone able to access internet and other people who have interaction with the team, player, etc, sometime they share the information to the public. They know which post or information that could make their account viral, hence they want to share it if it's allowed.

The close example is Fabrizio Romano, in the past no one know where the player will move to which team, however in the present, before the team give official announcement, we already know the player will join which team. :D

Nowadays, people can obtain a lot of information quickly; people have the same information that bookmakers have. So, in my opinion, I think we are in a situation where both parties (bookmakers and bettors) are on equal footing when it comes to information. Now, having the same information doesn't guarantee that players will win, because many things can happen during a game. The information only helps to have a better idea of ​​what could be predicted during the game; the information is not a 100% guarantee of success.

Sportbooks source for more information about upcoming matches and sports event more than the bettors do. If you disagree with me, write your opinion about it. Bookies are at more advantage because even if it will cost  them money to pay for an information that will be of advantage to them, they will pay to get it before it goes public, meanwhile players depends on public information. That's not just what makes them win more than players, have you consider how they set their market too? Bookies set different market and most players could be confused on what option to bet on. I think the information asymmetry is not really the full juice, but market option is. If it's just for the market asymmetry, many players are trying, they make good research early and bet early too and they win.

I think that might be the case.
Having a cell phone and an access to the Internet doesn't necessarily give players the complete access to every single information, especially those that are in depth. You see, most people believe that the information used in drafting out odds are just mere information that are available on the net. Odds so sometimes change before games, which means there are certain info that regular players don't get, but bookmarkers gets them.

So I think information asymmetry truly exists.
These bookmarkers know something that the regular players don't.

As far as I know, the bookmaker do not know the result of the upcoming match, the odds they offer are from their analyzed data from the competing teams, and put a house edge on the calculation.  It is a false idea that players are almost impossible to win since no one knows the outcome of the game until it presents itself.


It is indeed exists, we have seen people getting insider tips and be able to win on those matches, this can be suspected as fixed matches.  In a natural flaw of information, it is observed that first-hand receivers have way more information than those second-hand receivers, since these people who knows certain information and statistics may maliciously hide these facts in order to gain advantage on other people.

Bookies have access to exclusive information regarding to the match since they are paying sports data like Sportsradar and other data companies that have deals on major sports league for exclusive data access so that their odds will always be updated and in-line to the current real probability of the game.

Bookie is always ahead against players and it’s hard to beat them long term if we will just relay to the data available on the web.

Yes of course, information asymmetry exist and in gambling it could be when the bookmakers have access to more and better information than the gambler about the particular sport they bet on, of whom is more focused on the potential winning and spatial data available on the Internet.

It is the existence of asymmetry in gambling that leads to the surge of excitement and pleasure a gambler gets when gambling. It is what is also responsible for the choice of gambling strategy and potential profit that a gambler hopes to earn at the end of every bet.

We can say that they have algo or access to softwares that can analyze the stats. However, it doesn't mean that they are always right with their odds as upsets do happen and some angles are not factor in like unknown conditions of the athletes, sudden change of game tactic and others. So they may have the upper hand on how to analyze the game based on previous stats, but still, they have blind angles that they couldn't integrate yet in their algo.

I normally say that thr bookmakers are also gamblers because it's us vs them. The whole setup of odd arrangement is because they havw access to lots of informations and immediately they get an update on anything the odds are being adjusted. As bettors or gamblers I feel like we are not taking this seriously as much as the bookmakers, that's the reason why they make profit then their losses

That only adds up in live games.. and betting on live games comes with its own risk btw..
When it comes to “pre“ both gamblers and bookmakers have access to the same infos [stats, form guides, injury updates, predictions, H2H… and so on]…It could be extended for bookmakers but that’s not beyond the reach of gamblers either(only discussing pre, bookmakers actually have more data to feed on when it comes  to live games ). The odds are carculated based on whatever method they might  using .
 If you have the knowledge,you can go ahead with running AI, your models and whatever algos you like to stay ahead.
Bookmakers are only doing their job so you won’t start winning like crazy ;D

What does the bookmaker know better than us? Does it just start with the odds that are created? Or some other factors?

I think whether it's the bookmakers or us ordinary players, it's a different position from knowing more information. Just because the bookmakers do some odds that we think are reasonable doesn't make them seem like they know more.
On the one hand, when it comes to gambling that we do and can't win against the bookie, it doesn't mean that we don't have more knowledge than the bookie because in the end, the reason why the bookie always wins from gamblers is that they are only one as a container of many gamblers who bet, even if some of us gamblers win, it won't be much bigger than the profit that the bookie takes from the defeat of other gamblers.
 So in this case the bookmakers will also not care too much about us winning because they will not be harmed considering that there are still many losing gamblers who are used as benefits for them.

Although there's information asymmetry, I don't think the difference is that big of a deal. At the end of the day, I guess it's not really because of availability or access to certain information but rather of effort or ability to make use of them. I'm sure those who release odds are more comprehensive and thorough in their analyses compared to one who just places bets and enjoys watching games. But it doesn't necessarily mean information isn't accessible.

But, of course, the main reason why bettors are losing to bookies in the long run is the vig.

Possessing the information you mentioned doesn't guarantee a bettor's victory. We can find and access all kinds of data online, so we're betting on sports on equal terms. A bettor can only gain an advantage if they know what will happen in a fixed match. While those with the information will likely win more bets over time, it's still possible to be very unlucky even with this information.

Bookmakers don't profit from having more or less information. They profit by taking their share of the odds. In the end, they always get a small slice of each possibility. To me, this has nothing to do with information. If that were the case, there wouldn't be so many bookmakers, because the information would be extremely limited to obtain such high profits, don't you think?

It is less about the information that bookmakers have but more about the odds they can set. A bookmaker will never set odds in which he will not profit from. Even if that team loses, the bookmaker will win because he has set it in such a way that there’s always some margin in their favor. That’s why they say the house always wins because you’re always paying more because the odds are tilted towards the bookmakers.

The only real advantage of that bookmakers over us, players, is they can see the market very clearly. They can see that bettors have flocked over to a specific team which we won’t be completely sure because sports fans have different opinions. We can only see that most fans think x is the favorite but how much money has actually been placed? Only the bookmakers know.

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That's definitely why the sports-betting industry has been growing AND GROWING. But they also ACTUALLY place the betting line in a value that will make it HARDER for the bettor to make profit consistently. Because if it was actually easy, then the plebs in Bitcointalk's Gambling sub will not be plebs anymore, no?

I believe they have a very large database of statistics and use that to start the opening of those betting lines. The individuals who are betting on the opening are those people who are directly betting against the bookmakers betting lines.

Thats an interesting topic but if information is now so widely available through AI and data tools, wouldn’t the real asymmetry come from how effectively that information is analyzed and used rather than its availability. I think the real gap today isnt about access to information anymore but its about how people interpret and use it. Everyone can see the same stats, but not everyone knows how to turn that data into smart betting decisions.

I would like to learn more about this asymmetry from OP. What exactly is meant by asymmetry? If this information is freely available, then there is no asymmetry. If this is information that only the bookmaker and the coach of the football team, or some of the players, have, then there is an asymmetry. But what kind of classified information could they have? What assumptions do you have about this?

I think what asymmetry means is the kind of information that the bookies know but we don’t, that’s what gives them the edge when they’re trying to beat us. If it’s legal info we’re talking about, they can track how the bets are coming in for a certain game, and if they notice one side getting hammered hard, they might try to make the other side win if they have ways to manipulate it. But if not, the only thing they can really do is adjust the line to balance the action on both sides.

I don`t see any problem with searching information. It can be difficult enogh from the beginning, but when you bet on one league events for a month - you know where to find information about injures, transfers, league tables, fixtures, etc. The same time we can talk about information asymmetry for gambler wins - casino can`t concentrate on one event, they have to analyze thousands of events. And the gambler can choose juse few events and make better analyze than casino.
PS. Anyway, even if casino always right - it gives you an opportunity to choose winning team and odds always more than 1.00.

Someone once said that bookmakers have more enhanced tool or method that they are using to make analysis which makes it possible for them draw conclusion on their prediction and set up odds for the upcoming match and if you watch very well, the bookies are always researching on those upcoming games until the game is live and ends, they do that to continue adjusting and rearranging the odd to favour them, so that they don't lose and even if they do, it won't be compare to how much they won.

Both bookmakers and bettors use any technology that will keep them ahead of the game. Bookmakers are more opportune to get their hands on the better tool and technology that will make them stay ahead of the bettor.

AI no doubt is a game changer in my sector. However, it has many limitation in the gambling industry because it cant help to predict the outcome of a game. It has been tested and proving. It is no better than human.

I think the information asymmetry is not completely gone but, it is not as large as it used to be. Previously bookmakers had a monopoly on information and experience, now players have data analytics AI models and even real time insights. Yet the difference remains because bookmakers not only know the information they know how to use market sentiment against it. So, technology has created an equal opportunity but the strategy and mental side of the game still favors bookmakers.

This is why they are the ones with the upper hand. No matter how much players try and eventually win on a particular game, there are also the same percentage of people or even more who are also losing on the other side, so it's always a win-win for them. We just can't beat the system; they are good with managing the stats to be in their favor.

There is usually a line up information about how much would be played and when they should play it, for instance all the lineup for next week matches are there and the information has also gotten to the bookmakers as well, in fact things are more stringent with the gambler unlike the bookmakers who has all the possibility to maneuver things and outcome of any game, especially that of casino game and we can't really tell whether a gambling site is provably fair or not because we can't tell the level at which they programmed everything at their ends but for sports it is a bit hard to know how the results could be and sometimes things doesn't go as we all planned.

Football is a real life occurrence that is determined by players qualities, determination and consistency in teams performance and not by any tool except there is an act of  manipulation on the game.
What tool do you think can predict accurate life occurrence as the OP just mentioned, as for me I think the only thing they do is use the advance technology to analysis the teams quality and performance which i know gives them an edge to predict what the out come of the game would be at last, although at times there analysis never ends as expected just to justify that there is know accurate tool used to predict real life occurrence

You never play from equal to equal against casinos. There is this false belief that in sports betting you are playing against other gamblers, and not against the casino, but that is not true. It's the same as the traditional casino games from before sports betting's hype.

Take roulette as a simple example. It's red or black. By picking one, you are automatically betting against the opposite colour. However, besides black and red there is also the green colour (zero number). That is where the casino catches you. If it was only red and black, then you would have a decent chance on long term.

The same goes with sports betting. You have three potential outcomes for every match: Team A wins, Team B wins or a draw. It's just not possible to predict results accurately the more you do this considering the three potential results.

Moreover, there is the house edge factor, which balance odds in a way to give the house their comission/profit. The system is designed to make gamblers lose. And the hypothetical top notch information you have access nowadays through AIs is just an illusion.

Probably they might have more data in the stats and form of players. Still, it doesn't mean they know better which is why they are winning in long run, it's simply the reason house always got the edge, when it comes to favorite team that wins the game then rewards are lesser means they are paying lesser amount even when more players won the bet. Still, it's vice versa when the odds are high for the underdog and they managed to win.

I recommend that you simplify your topic or wording so that we do not have different interpretations of the word or topic, which could make the topic lose its meaning. I have to check online or use AI to find the correct meaning of the word 'asymmetry' and connect it to the topic we're discussing.



I believe it exists because bookmakers and tipsters have different approaches to how they process the information they share with their subscribers and followers. So yes, not all tipsters or bookmakers share the same tips or guides, and it's up to the gamblers to check the value being offered.

The asymmetry exists, but not because bettors lack free access to information or because neural networks can't be used as you mentioned. It's because it involves technical areas (very technical for most) that give the bookmaker an advantage, since they have all these tools. However, I also believe it's not that it can't be overcome, but rather that few have the knowledge and time to try, and prefer to use readily available information in a traditional way.
In any case, the only advantage where the bookmaker perpetuates this asymmetry is in the betting odds, which are set by them or specialized third parties and can be manipulated live to balance them and guarantee long-term profits.

A bookmaker is not a standalone agent, if there was a single bookmaker out there and we had no way to compare their conclusions, we would be entirely in the dark about whether it is a good value bet or not - simply basing it on this information asymmetry that you mention, with the average person having much less analytical resources at their disposal. However we live in a world where bookmakers are competing against other bookmakers, if it is seen that one has calculated much higher odds than another then they are eventually going to lose all business. There are also peer to peer marketplaces out there, which are a form of crowd sourcing information, but they do actually come in surprisingly close to bookmaker odds most of the time, often holding a tighter margin but requiring fees paid by the player.

By looking at this condition, it is indirectly the same between the gamblers and the bookmakers, it's just that the bookmakers are more subjective where they see several probabilities in it but for some gamblers it is more objective where only a few clubs they see as a reference.

On the other hand, making it an advantage of the bookmakers, it is certain that the excess information that the bookmakers have is actually irrelevant because we also as gamblers can do the same thing because it is a choice. The difference in this case is that the bookmakers make this a demand for the work and business they do while for us gamblers make this a condition where we only prioritize emotions and pleasure.

We were not talking about machines that can predict the actual result of a sport gambling. I think you misunderstood us here.
Football is not predictable. And wit that being said, the sportsbook make us of advanced machine to predict odd..not the actual result of a game. They have been using this to stay ahead of bettors. The advanced technology update the odds in real time, if not sports bettor will see opportunities they can take advantage of, especially in live games.

I don't understand people who can't figure out what this asymmetry in gambling is. It's simply a term meaning that the casino knows what its long-term advantage is. For example, in American roulette, it's five percent, and in blackjack, half a percent. Over time, this shift generates revenue for the casino and takes money from the players. Therefore, casinos don't cheat; they simply let bettors keep playing, increasing the long-term value. It's very simple, and this is something we've discussed many times, because the casino makes all its money over the long term.

Every gambler has their own developed strategy here, because they know that in sport bet, the bookmakers understand the whole the technique applies to favour each party, that is why even at some game, you will discover that some gamblers will have to make a combination to build the odds and risk higher, some may stake big and some uses smaller amount, but it's of no doubt the house has more upper edge, but we also have to smartly play our bets to stand a better chance of winning of all odds.

I think they have better knowledge than us.

What I do is always compare myself to Adrian Wojnarowski. That dude was one of my idols when it comes to sports analysis, and he has so much intel and deep analysis that he might win every game that he bets on.
Back to the topic. The comparison between him and a normal sports bettor is far. He has so many connections to ask if one player will really play or not, even if it's not yet game time, and then other stuff that might be crucial and is not informed to the public or the internet. Then there's his pure knowledge about the game. Stats, histories, records, he is like a walking sports wiki, and I doubt anyone could achieve that unless they get serious about doing it.

It's a job for him. It's not for us. We are gamblers. We would rather use the time for something more productive than reading all that, and I think the bookies do have that intel too.

The bookmakers are not even making any prediction to assume that if they have enough information about a game before it even starts that it is going to give them any sort of greater advantage than the gambler. they have there own information, no doubt but what places them at a more advantageous position far ahead of the gambler is just because  the gambler is the one that is taking the risk while they on their own end are just setting the odds. most of the games are even luck based game to even start with and so, neither the gambler nor the casino has an obvious edge.

If you look at it normally, yes, it is very likely that the bookie has information asymmetry in the world of sports, the bookie could collaborate with certain parties, I mean those who are responsible for the sport, the chances of the bookie's information and knowledge are a greater percentage than the gambler himself.

The point is that bookies don't want them to lose, they will create maximum profits possible, that's what asymmetry applies, so that the bets they place are always imbalanced between gamblers. If you say that information asymmetry for bookies does exist, it's not just a myth.

It does exist; not all gamblers have access to the correct information about competing teams or matches. Some gamblers have insider information, making it accessible to a few; there is early information accessible only to a few.

One example is horse betting. The information coming in will give an edge to those who got early information before the race starts, like the favourite horse not being in tip-top shape because of a slight injury.
Or one boxer going to the fight with an injury, but only a few know about it, and it is leaked to a few bettors, giving them an edge in betting.

The house always wins; that's why they are still in business. Whatevermeans they are using to determine odds in favour of both them and the players is something that has not been discovered yet. In all matches there will always be a set of gamblers who will be winning, and we also have those who will be losing, which means that no matter how much they will have to pay to winners, there is still enough balance to keep them in profit.

That's what I am saying and the system is designed in a way that if more people win the bet then the total payout will be lesser because the favorite team will have lesser odds and when a higher odd team wins then it must be less number of people bet on them which makes them sustainable as a business and their revenue will be enough to cover the profit and loss on most occasinos and there can be an exception that is why they try to limit the maximum winning amount by having a cap value.

Information asymmetry is real, especially in live betting or niche sports where odds don’t update fast enough. Sharp bettors use early data, injury leaks, or odds tracking tools to find value before markets balance.

Do you think small bettors can ever match that level of edge?