Bitcoin Forum

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2025/11/07/U6oX8g.png

I originally created this topic to learn, and it is impossible for me to analyze the picture of this topic. The image suggests that Bitcoin will be in a bullish position in 2026.
But I am not qualified to analyze this image, and I would like to seek the help of many experienced users here who have the ability to analyze it. Please explain the matter.

https://x.com/saylordocs/status/1986677495345607025?t=27REz3kf3MWsWm2kizBW0g&s=19

What the creator wanted people to know is not far-fetched, as it's clearly written and marked with A, B and C. But what I would like you to know is that things like this are common online, and they are mostly the work of conspiracy theorists, who are better ignored.

If at all that many of us easily forgot what happened in far earlier years, in 2019, we should still remember that it was a good year for stocks, a recovery from the 2018 sell-off, and the previous years' pressure. But this theorist stated otherwise. The next panic years were in 2020, the year of Covid-19 (I was so afraid for the market then, because it was dramatic), before 2022. So what are we talking about?

Lastly, let's assume the data/statistics are correct, you will make a grave mistake by believing Bitcoin will behave exactly like stocks all the time. No one can ascertain what will happen in 2026 in the Bitcoin market. However, if the 4-year history cycle repeats itself, then we might experience a Bear market.

The image is nothing more than speculation, as its analysis is based solely on patterns, without in-depth fundamental analysis or consideration of external factors that could influence the outcome. Such analysis is highly biased and should not be relied upon, as we know the future is full of uncertainty and influenced by many, often unpredictable, variables. Just look at the years indicated by the image, which contrast with the economic conditions at the time. Therefore, this image is nothing more than a speculative and irrelevant illustration, and one should not rely on it.

I was surprised to see bitcoin dip $99k plus as my trading app notified me when the price dropped, this is gradually confirming that we may head into bear market, although it doesn't entirely approved that is it certain or likely to happened that way but I must say that this period isn't that a favorable moment for bitcoin to create another ATH because we may likely see more dip and bitcoin is still bullish now considering to how the price was 64k last year, so for we to confirmed that we are into bear market is for the market to dip around 70k or 60k and whatever that causes the market dip that level then we might say that there is no hope for bull market. However, 2026 is not that far anymore, just about 51 days there about and anything is possible, even though there will be bull it would only create a price a bit higher than the previous ATH in Q1-3, then around Q4 there could be changes either up or down.

When that was made I don't think it points out risk assets, (probably?) but it points out the stock market. It's probably most a coincidence and just points out and filter the good and bad from the years that given in that chart because if that's really what it brings it should have predicted the 2008 crisis to be in the C downtrend. Not to discredit the inventor of this chart as it's really astonishing to come up with this idea but there should be other factors to consider and not solely based on patterns because at some point it will be broken and much like the 4 year cycle for Bitcoin we thought that will happen again.

This illustration might have predicted the early years it was published but through the course of time it will definitely change and pattern will be broken.

Why are you not qualified to analyze the image? I don’t know maybe we have different people which are making analysis about a chat? Everyone one can make analysis as long as you know how it’s done.

I don’t always follow all this chats, and I don’t even waste my time doing all those analysis, am holding bitcoin, and my intention is to hold for long term, so even if bitcoin pumps or dumps, I don’t always care about that, since am not ready to sell soon.

I don’t know what we are going to be expecting in 2026, but as we can see bitcoin awareness keeps on increasing so bitcoin also is going to keep on growing, bitcoin is going to be massive. If you tell some people that bitcoin is going to be bullish next year, some people will think maybe bitcoin price will just keep on increasing and we won’t be experiencing dip. Even if there will be bull run, we should be prepared for dip also.

That's right. Anyone who says they know what will happen in 2026, based on that image or any other reason, is lying. I think 2026 is going to be a year of great uncertainty, given what has happened in 2025. Some say that we have reached the peak of this cycle and from here on out, the only way is down, although as volatility has decreased and the price has not risen much, it should not fall much either. Others argue that circumstances have changed and we cannot rely on what happened in previous cycles, and that we could reach new highs in 2026. The truth is that no one knows anything, and predicting the future based on projected patterns from the past is nothing more than a shot in the dark.

That is called the Benner's theory. I've made a topic about it a month ago and the discussion of relating it to Bitcoin's cycle is on the thread[1] I've made.

Have a take a look in it and maybe there could be more interesting thoughts about you OP and everyone.

[1]  Benner's Theory & Bitcoin (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5562287.0)

I think we can just analysed it based on our previous historical logs. So if we look at it, it could be the start o the bear market. So it could be the start of the price going down hard and there are a lot of uncertainty as we all know that we don't like bearish trend.

So gonna be a difficult year ahead of us. And the only way we can at least fight it out is that we have save enough money for the rainy days.

Or at least we have diversified our investment to either gold or stocks to keep going surviving if crypto market is going on another 2 years of long bear market.

I think there is a possibility of a fall in the Bitcoin market in 2026 and it may move downwards. Although most experts have predicted that the Bitcoin market is likely to enter higher highs in the coming days. However, we cannot yet say so definitively at what level the market may actually reach, but we can say that there is a possibility of a fall in the market. Gradually, we can see that the market has almost come down a lot. If the market does not enter a high in November, then it may increase a little in December. The market may be a little better at the beginning of the new year, but later the market may go down. However, we have seen analysis in some places that those who made good predictions will touch the price of $150k. We cannot imagine whether it will be possible, but we can hope that the market does not fall but rises higher.

I can't say many things but the thing that may happen will be boom and doom. That is what I speculate with some friends because Bitcoin still has a chance to increase while the altcoin season has not yet happened (maybe).

But no one knows what will happen in the next years and that is mystery. We can only prepare for anything and hope that the good things will come to crypto. But if a bad thing happens, we don't panic but stay calm.

That is the only thing that we can do while we can still accumulate Bitcoin. Don't forget that we have time to buy back Bitcoin at a low price and still collecting more amount.

That is a very difficult to answer whether next year is going to be a boom or doom.

We could all be divided too, there could be some of us who think that we can still salvage some and the price still going to be very bullish and hit a new all time high. But some could think that the inevitable, bear market starts next year.

So I guess, the only thing we can do is to react, or to make a new strategy specially if the latter will be the case. Don't let bear market became negative to us, but think of it as another version of us accumulating again.

This year has already been a boom for the bitcoin market all through, because we made all time highs and break forth above $100,000 to the height of $126,000 in history of bitcoin market price, which is a wonderful performance already and it seems like we are not done yet, maybe more is to be expected in crossing towards $150,000.

If am not mistaken as the case may appear now or later, while 2026 should only be the introduction of the bear market, even though we may not get into it fully as we may expect, but things are going to move in a more bearish pattern when we must have been done with the bitcoin season by then.

This chart again. Heh. Afraid I'm going to have to go for not-boom. Don't think it's a year of doom, either, but this bull has been going on such legs its caught me by surprise. Not just in how long it's been going on, but how suspiciously sustainable the growth looks too. For Bitcoin, anyway, that wild spurt to ATH has not been happening the entire stretch of ATHs. Makes for really interesting charts.

If we study some of the speculation circulating and this speculation shows that Bitcoin's development in 2026 is more towards a downtrend phase, It's not without reason that all of this is happening as a minor trend, even though we can see investors continuing to invest in Bitcoin.

Even though overall it can be seen from Coinbase that crypto market liquidity still looks positive, it is possible that investors are more careful about the recent volatility. Those big players in the crypto market are also starting to speculate on the future development of Bitcoin, as Tom Lee and others have said, it is very likely that Bitcoin prices will plummet in 2026.

Yes, it is nothing more than speculation, but many economists also use the data as a formula for guessing the future, even though it is not certain it is always still considered by some economists.

The world is uncertain, that's how it is, it is impossible for someone to predict the future correctly continuously, only if occasionally it is lucky, but what is certain is that it cannot be guessed, how the year 2026 will be a Boom or Doom, as at the end of the bitcoin cycle now it cannot be predicted even with complete data.

I agree with the illustration because Bitcoin witness a bull run in 2026. The little changes that happened last year in the Bitcoin cycle such as Bitcoin creating ATH before the halving, is something to factor into projects and if that be the case, we can expect that the peak of this cycle would have been shifted forward by one year. This may be the reason behind the confusion we are seeing in the market movement now. I think we should now use this as motivation to buy more Bitcoin.

It is really difficult to predict how Bitcoin will react in the coming days, as the market has been experiencing considerable volatility recently and Bitcoin is still trading at the $102,000 level. We have seen many ups and downs in Bitcoin in 2025, and how Bitcoin will react next year is still a surprise to us. If we see a downtrend in Bitcoin in 2026, it could also be considered a painful year for us.

However, I think Bitcoin could go down a bit, but Bitcoin will recover from there quickly and achieve a new ATH again quickly. We also need to keep this in mind that Bitcoin is in a much stronger position now than it was in the past.

Looking at the four year cycle, 2026 should be the bear year. Which means that you are going to see bitcoin crash to bottom price in 2026, it will be lower than anything in 2025, and lower than anything in 2027, we will see the bear market and the bottom.

However, that is not always a "doom", like it's a bad scenario that can't be fixed, it is a great period where you could easily just turn to your profit. Sell your bitcoins at the peak this year whatever price you can before the bear run starts, then use that money you made from selling into buying it back when the bottom hits. You may not know what the bottom is, so put in buy orders at 60k, 50k, 40k, that way you can average it out and can be ready for the next bull run.

This year wasnt a boom, it occured at the tail end of last year mostly.  This year has overall been revision though I would still call it bullish price action in BTC its been volatile and clearly we had selling along the way.
  All of that adds upto a good next year, why because we had so many doubts, sells and pauses this year.  Caution and consolidation of pricing that resolves sideways is something to take positively because it can easily resolve higher and a new ATH was put in but went nowhere but the door is open!

We can only speculate what will happen in 2026, but i guess that is what we are in this section to do, speculate, lol. That said, i would like to see how the year ends first, in what position we end in, that's when i'd be able to speculate on next year. Right now we have less than two months to go, and we are still above $100k.

I know the price fell recently, but to still be above $100k is good. And if you asked a lot of us many months before the bull run if $100k at the end of 2025 would be good, we'll all affirm.

The chart obviously shows statistics for the stocks market and not for the Bitcoin market. I will be foolish to analyze what or make speculation on Bitcoin in 2026 by mere looking at a chart.

Did you forget, past result do not guarantee the future in Bitcoin?

This chart shows a general trend but that doesn't mean it'll always hold true. There are many variables that determine commodity prices and Bitcoin is no different. Bitcoin has its own unique cycles, largely tied to the halving.

Looking ahead to 2026, we might still be in an uptrend during the first half of the year, but I don't think we'll finish the year positive. We might be in a bear market or perhaps in a period of stagnation. However I find it unlikely that the bull run will last that long.

I think we had so much expectations for this year simply because the year was actually the year after bitcoin halving has occured and we all were expecting history to happen and we experience a very bullish trend in the majority of the year but that hasn’t been the case for this year as I can say that many of the months were definitely bearish most especially those months that are always bullish. Can we say this year is not actually bull run year, I will say on the overall price it wasn’t a bull run year even after setting multiple ATH it will be ending the year in loss should we go below anything $100k because it was the opening price for bitcoin, so it would definitely be the a loss closing below that price.

For bitcoin price next year, there is expectations that it is going to actually breaks the historical trend which is expected to have its bearish to actually be bullish in some aspects and this is because this year has its own trend broken too. Personally I will say it is heavily possible but I am predicting a bearish sentiment according to history

The past is no guarantee of the future and charts do not tell us exactly what will happen in the future. But beyond past data, what else can we rely on to make predictions about the future?

Cryptocurrency is a speculative market and prediction is part of the game. So feel free to make predictions based on your understanding and vision. Furthermore, we can predict but not necessarily believe it consistently. The market is always changing and we need to update and adapt to the market conditions at each point in time.

Crypto and stocks are both speculative markets and are largely influenced by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Most of the time they have pretty similar movements, so using stock charts for cryptocurrencies isn't exactly silly.

Analyzing Bitcoin's price isn't easy, even with charts and other tools. Because the market doesn't always work as one might imagine, we always need more opinions on such matters, as has been the case recently, where Bitcoin's price corrections seem to outweigh its price increases. Therefore, for next year, I still believe the increase won't be significant, although I personally hope for a significant increase in Bitcoin's price to lead to a better recovery.

Even now we are in a period of stagnation which I feel will be followed by a short bear cycle. We already saw some great progress in 2025 and after this long bull run, expecting a short bear run might be something usual.

Although people are still not prepared for the bear cycle and still expect bitcoins breaking ATH and ascending again. It's not our fault, we never want to see bitcoins drop again but this is not how the markets work so we should be prepared for both the outcomes. I am not expecting a lot in 2026 but I do have prepared myself for a bear run. I would love if it breaks my expectations and continues the bull cycle but deep inside my heart, I know that might not be possible.

Yes, that's right, the graph has provided clarity on how the stock market statistics are different from the Bitcoin market. Maybe this needs to be studied again to know where it is going. Speculating on the price of Bitcoin in 2026 is not an easy thing for everyone, even the best analysis does not guarantee that Bitcoin's future will be bright. Every day the role of Bitcoin grows, hopefully Bitcoin will be brighter next year.

Just following patterns to identify year long prosperity might not be a good way to start. Yes, we can take this as an example and use it for our analysis but we can never be sure this will always work out. Also we will not see markets making money for the entire year, there will at least be one or two quarters when the markets will be red again.

Markets will never go in one direction for the entire year, there will at least be short drops or pull backs where profit taking will come into picture. On a different note, yes I do feel like 2026 is going to be a good year for bitcoins even after a few pullbacks. At least by the year end, we will see good growth in volume and prices.

Let’s see…
2014 ~70% dump
2018 ~70% dump
2022 ~70% dump
2026… Are you really asking what is going to happen?

Those who think 2026 will be an up year are going against math, history, and psychology. I just don’t see it happening. Not saying it isn’t possible, just that the market thinks it is far more likely than it is. It would be a fundamental shift for the market to not have a down year at this stage. I don’t even think the big boys would let it happen, as they need you to believe in the four year cycle if they’re going to pump and dump you again in 2029.

Actually, I am not much of an expert either, so what we predict is based on assumptions. Moreover, it is uncertain what position the market will be in in 2026 and what will happen in the market because many people made such predictions about 2025 where everyone said that the market will be in a very good position, even abut $150k, but we are not getting any accurate predictions there, even though the year is almost over, we are still not seeing anything good in the market, rather the market has been dumping and came below 100k, which is the best dumping in the last few months. So I cannot make any predictions about 2026 amidst this uncertainty, but if I were to guess, I would say that the market has the potential to occupy a good position in 2026.

We don’t know what’s going to happen by 2026, but with the look of things we should expect both Boom and Doom from bitcoin by next year. I don’t know why some people just don’t want to hear about bitcoin price dumping, but we should know that they market won’t continue pumping, we should always expect a dump before we going to get back to track, so everyone should be prepared for both pump and dump by next year.

We should be expecting something massive from bitcoin by next year, bitcoin should be able to create another record next year, and I know that bitcoin awareness will keep on spreading. So since we are still in 2025, we should just chill and keep on enjoying what’s happening right now.

This is just a speculation and not a guaranteed forecast, so the details in this image cannot be relied on. If there's anyone out there already making some decisions base on the information on this chat, he should be aware that this is just another speculation from another investor like him, patterns can change at any time. As we approach 2026, we should be prepared for anything. No one can predict the market with 100% certainty.

History can change because when these dumps happened, bitcoin hasn't gotten this widespread recognition it has gotten today and you have to understand that there are many active players in the market now unlike in the past when the market was controlled and manipulated mostly by the whales. We are expecting 2026 to be a dump year but do you still think it will get to 70% dump? i think that's not possible. Perhaps, a fundamental shift from the past cycles can still occur and prolong the bull run.

It would be disappointing if BTC was just aligned to stock markets but mostly its a case of both being roughly inverse to the Dollar hence gaining partly by inflation which we can be safely sure will happen every year pretty much.

I dont agree on a negative year next year because it remains unproven and we would just be guessing to say it must happen that way.  The correct consideration for Bitcoin is always with a positive bias, even during a setback small or large you would still gain in the end with that attitude.

Iam looking for price action to show direction and that takes time to really be more in view then normal volatile moves.  We will probably get a much better indication into year end.  Right this moment I'm looking for a trend break of some kind, predicting during a drift sideways is too much noise.

  Its very easy to draw a downtrend from the ATH which matters because that bearish trend will be widely observed & traded, the strength in these contested prices will give the best indication of BTC going forward.

I've been interested in the graph created by the farmer for two months. Will it be on schedule?

If so, a global economic restructuring ("The Great Reset") will begin, but there's no sign of it yet. Like they used to make a Wuhan version of the movie.

what do you think it will be like now?

It is very difficult to predict the price of Bitcoin, because no one really knows how the future will go, we can only guess. So I think the way Bitcoin is performing and transactions are happening, and at the moment we can see Bitcoin at $107k. But I can definitely predict that Bitcoin will be above $130k in 2026, because as time goes by we are moving towards the future digital era.
And the amount of Bitcoin holdings is increasing and there is a huge demand for Bitcoin, so of course we will see Bitcoin at an all-time high in 2026.

The world is entering the digital age, and the adoption of bitcoin as well as the demand for bitcoin investment is increasing. But we cannot ignore one thing: Bitcoin is also a financial market and it is also affected by macroeconomic and political news...So looking at the long term picture, prices are definitely going to rise but volatility in the short and medium term is inevitable. Meanwhile, the bull season has lasted from late 2024 until now and may not be over yet. But we cannot expect it to last until 2026, 2027 or even longer.

I really hope your prediction is correct because bitcoin price increase is what everyone wants. But I prefer to be realistic, I will prepare for bear season in 2026.

Everyone, myself included, is predicting the end of the cycle and the beginning of a bear market, but there’s still a glimmer of hope.

I just learned that Donald Trump has announced plans to pay every American $2,000 as a “dividend” from revenue generated by tariffs:
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5597207-trump-proposes-tariff-dividend/

It doesn’t make much sense, since tariff revenue basically comes from higher prices paid by Americans on imported goods, so he might as well have just lowered the tariffs a bit and saved a fortune on distribution costs, but never mind that.
If such a mass payout actually happens and if it happens fairly quickly, there’s a chance that a significant portion of that money could flow into the crypto market, similar to what happened with the COVID stimulus checks, which reportedly had quite a strong effect on pushing Bitcoin’s price upward during the 2021 cycle.

Exactly, just like the COVID effect, the stimulus checks! This is the first thing that came to my mind after hearing this news. During that time, also during COVID, we experienced a massive dump! That was the huge dump I experienced in my cryptocurrency journey. But yeah, after that, a good bounce back in the market happened.
But  yeah, seems the tarrif war between US and other countries like China are huge that even other countries are affected.

Basically, this picture means the panic time of the market, good times and bad times, basically these years are meant. During panic times, we know that the market position is not very stable, in that case, we must wait for a good time to sell. And when bad times come, we must not sell Bitcoins but hold them patiently. And if our financial position is good, we should try to buy more from the market during bad times so that when the market goes to a good position, we will have the hope of making a lot of profit. However, in any case, the Bitcoin market will likely decline around 2026 and will not increase like in 2025, I think.

With stocks, gold, and bitcoin all going up I guess it could happen. Though, we'll see. If bitcoin is just too good to be sold and super bullish. Then, I could see no reason selling it.
Stock such as AI stocks are hella overvalued right now and if that graph is true, it will peak around 2026. Maybe that's the time to sell.

It's all speculation but I wonder how true is that image based on historical data?

Many people on X.com also share this view and many are hoping for it. But I don’t think the market will be able to grow the same way it did during the COVID period, even if a significant portion of that money can flow into the crypto market.

We need to know that during the covid pandemic, all governments have lowered interest rates to near zero and pumped money into the economy massively, not just the US. That’s an extremely huge amount of money. Meanwhile, if Trump can carry out this plan, only Americans will get free money, not the whole world. So even if most of them intend to use that money to invest in crypto, it will be difficult to generate significant growth like during covid.

According to the data records, the opening of the year begins in 1924 and Bitcoin was introduced in 2009 and the year gap is 85, so do we assume Satoshi Nakamoto was over 85 when he created Bitcoin?  And or does it mean that other Bitcoin has been in existence before the we know today being created by Satoshi?

From the bottom year of the chart 1924 to 2025 has years gap or 101 which means Bitcoin has existed for 101 years now.

Below the chart contains a signature, does that validate signatory of Satoshi?
Or is it obvious that someone was analysing and Speculating the stock market as mentioned and then was coincidence to similarly match Bitcoin market?

Well... it is unfortunate as trying to analysis this chart could be a blind indulgence of us because there is no specification that the chart was emphasizing about Bitcoin.

We shouldn't get confused or carried away by complex graphs, we can only speculate what Bitcoin price will be tomorrow and next year, nobody controls the market. The analysis in the OP image cannot be relied upon considering the years that were captured in it, we cannot expect market dynamics then and now. It is good to be positive about Bitcoin but if it dip we shouldn't give up hope like those that are holding shitcoins, we know that it has the potentials to reach ATH sometime in the future. So I cannot predict Bitcoin to be doom at anytime even when it dip because it will eventually recover and hit peak price.

Four year cycle is obvious, in 2018 we went low, in 2022 we went low, and in 2026 we will go low. Which means whatever bull run and peak we will have, has just 1.5 months left and nothing more. That's a good thing, I think that will be fine and we are going to end up with a great situation without a doubt.

We won't have that much more profit easily, but that doesn't mean that we are going to see this be that different. Obviously things could change with time, but that doesn't mean that it is going to be similar, maybe not exactly the same, but quite similar I am sure. We are going to face that with time, and for that reason we need to let it be and trade according to this timing of the four year cycle we always have.

Though to some reasons,  you may not be able to learn anything much from asking such a question on a crypto forum like bitcointalk,  let say 2026 is still some time away and for some reasons i wont stop you from making some level of speculations about bitcoin or the entire market, but we may expect alit of volatility to play out in the coming year, because for some reasons we need to build a level play ground where we wont expect so much bur be open to welcome all the volatilities that will come along the line.