Bitcoin Forum

United States is really giving license to companies that want to offer prediction market. It was Polymarket just of recent but now it is Gemini.

Gemini's CEO, Tyler Winklevoss, credited the Trump administration for ending the war on crypto, following the CFTC approval.

You can read about it better on https://decrypt.co/351936/gemini-cftc-approval-prediction-markets-us

I think more sites that are offering prediction market will soon come to United States.

I guess it's because other prediction market like polymarket are being profitable that's why others think it wise to emerge too, and since prediction market are not taken as gambling, they can make more success and soon other sports book could take it as an opportunity to launch their own site too and call it prediction market, so that they get approval in the US too, just my guess.

Yes, prediction market is very profitable. More people also know about it during the last United States election when a French man won almost $50 million dollar on Polymarket.

I noticed that exchanges are the ones that are launching it, but it will be good if gambling sites start to launch a prediction market.

Polymarket, Kalshi has made huge profits from this prediction market so don't be surprised to see many new sites similar to Polymarket.

Is it possible for many people to end up betting into prediction markets given the current trend that continues to rise?

Actually, I don't think so because betting sites in general will remain crowded, it's only when the hype happens that it will become overwhelming.

Ending the war on crypto? That's laughable. The things people do to stay in the orange clown's good graces make sense despite being messed up. BTC and other popular cryptocurrencies never will require any one person to flourish.

Coming to the topic itself, it's good to see more prediction sites giving competition to Polymarket reducing the chances of manipulation to a certain extent. Heard Binance head is launching something similar soon too.

The predictions market is a new discovered sectors after gambling that have high volumes of demands,  and this makes it profitable sectors for market provider's like polymarket.

And if poly market can get the license,  then any other company that can provide a competitive market and needed market predictions infrastructure,  can also get license to operate.

As it is, we need all the alternatives since the United state just started their official cryptocurrency adoptions,  and with high regulations, which make it easy for start ups to uptain license under the TRUMP Administration.

You mean ending the war on scams and allowing every piece of shit to launch his coin and fleece the "investors?
Like Trump coin and Melania coin?
Who is gullible enough not to think that they plan on making twice as much as they paid Trump, and this will come obviously from the pockets of "investors" dumb enough to believe their crap?


Kalshi reported $24 million in revenue for 2024, Flutter (the one owning Betfair, Sportsbet and Pokerstars) made 14 thousand millions!

It will not be funny if each prediction markets will start launching their own tokens also in a way it will pump and later dump as usual. Many coins like this in this year that I thought will not dump all dumped. Not few of them, it is all of them that I know that dump.

You were right about Trump, Trump, Melania and WLFI all dumped as usual.

Many people bare scammed in the manipulative markets.

Polymarket's business model has proven highly profitable, and it's more than obvious that many companies will pivot to this model or integrate it into the model they already use. The United States, under the Trump administration, has shown itself to be quite favorable to such markets, along with the cryptocurrency market.

I think Polymarket and Kashi are both run by teenagers, so this market is ripe for the taking.  No surprise that Gemini is jumping in with both feet.  I imagine many more businesses will follow to try and become the one prediction market that wins the customers. 

Is this gambling or hedging a business type of risk to balance, ie. its got valid utility in a wider economy.
  I know there is some overlap between gambling and all kinds of risk so maybe it doesnt matter so long as its being allowed as legitimate business, I think its good for everyone.

  Due to that business link it seems more likely to endure multiple administrations not just this one.    USA was previously very much against any competition to established routes of trading both risk and anything betting related.  An expanded market open to all competitors seems far healthier in what should be a growing economy.

There is still no competition about this, Polymarket was not given license before, but did you know that the prediction market is based in New York, United States. Also Kalshi and Gemini are both located in New York, United States. If all of them are located in United States, there is still no competition about this in regard to what you meant.

It's becoming a big industry, CZ is coming out of its own, and it's going to be tough competition between these credible names in the community.
I will not be surprised if it becomes the most talked-about market; more will come out because developers follow where the money is. Let's see if there are standalone predictions backed by top casinos joining the market.

This will become increasingly common now that the US regulator and the CFTC have finally opened an official path for these prediction markets to operate instead of treating everything as illegal as before... now there are clearer laws for this and, most importantly, a lot of money is involved, so it is natural that large players will mobilize to occupy this space... others will emerge soon.

Now these companies are acting not only as a "recreational bet" but also as a hedge to aggregate information. Does this change anything? No!!! But everything changes when DCMs are licensed and no-action is given to these structures when they are well audited. The CFTC gains KYC or AML, market integrity rules, capital requirements and supervision over a type of product that, in practice, the public has already been using on offshore platforms.

It is officially the "end of the war against crypto", I hopefully this will be replicated in more countries.

The predicted betting market evaluation in 2025 has now increased so much that another news said $11B for the kalsi market evaluation now --- the owner has become rich suddenly thanks to the platform they built which is now worth fantastic value.
Source: https://x.com/YahooFinance/status/1996661791653290260
People are starting to end up in the prediction market, betting a lot of money there.

How can they get rich from a predicted market valuation, though? Are they offering stocks with dividends or something? I also don't understand how securing funding equals net worth. Surely that money won't go into the founder's pocket only. Even if that's true, I'd be cautious about making predictions, since we've had many bubbles and exaggerated forecasts in the past.

In this time of super corruption from Trump, it is inevitable that plenty of company owners who know how to grease his palm will get such approvals as he overrides any decent rules that have been put in place recently, treating every department of government like his own little companies. Since we have bitcoin ETF's, then in theory nothing is wrong with prediction market companies because they will actually reduce volatility and may help to introduce new buyers into the market. However it makes it into a monopoly currently, so you would hope that several other companies would swiftly follow, otherwise you end up in a scenario where this company can leverage and potentially manipulate pricing.

There is a huge difference between revenue and valuation!
Theranos (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theranos) was valued at 9 billion in 2013, the owner's net wealth was around 4.5 billion, but the company never had any revenue!
Kalshi has a 24 million reported revenue, meaning the company makes in revenue 1/500 of their evaluation, Alphabet for example, is at 1/10, Tesla, which everyone says it's way overpriced for their revenue, is at 1/15.

If you look at the approval given, they are not just coming without any form of underground agreement between the two parties involved, don't expect that government will do something that will not pay them at the end and they earn form it, which is what i want us to also consider and focus at this time around, the approval is there, but at the end, they are more benefiting from it than these companies.

Ending the war on crypto is dramatic, lets hope for a peaceful prosperity then.  
 War is a waste so that's a good analogy and way to frame it, I hope we do get something that productive ongoing from now on as that benefits everyone both sides of the table :)




Theranos had a product applicable to every human on earth, it was supposedly far ahead of the competition. That makes up that overvaluation miscalculation but here I think the product would have to be far more competitive and its not everyones game surely.

Gemini saw the success of Polymarket, so they realized that following this business path would be profitable for them in the future. Furthermore, prediction markets like Polymarket are still relatively new, so opening a prediction market is certainly a viable business opportunity. This would also benefit the US government, as it could generate revenue elsewhere. I'm quite confident that after Gemini launches its prediction market, other companies will follow suit.

That is true, just look at the number of crypto casinos today, they are so many already. And prediction market with similar set-up of Polymarket is not that many yet. Here in the forum, I only know futuur.com. So yes, they have all the time to launch their own. Anyway, Gemini platform is not new in crypto business. What they are doing is just they are expanding their horizon in this market. Also, it is better to have competition for the players to have selection and so they will offer better services to their clients as much as possible.

At this point I am really believing that any thing is possible as long as the correct amount of Money is handed over to Trump.  We have seen the Shit Coins they launched and robbed people with, we have seen the funded pardons, it does not look like there is too much logic behind it.  It is a first come first serve strategy.  I wish it was not like this, but I can not be happy or proud about The United States doing any thing 'pro Cryptocurrencies' any more knowing how things work now.

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It is pretty much Gambling however, it is only under a less guilt causing name.  Is it not?  There is a giant Market for Gambling, the industry pretty much never fails.

Is it the same Polymarket that partnered with metamask recently, I saw on their website to also have an integration with wallet connect, base, and phantom wallets. It's surprising to see a prediction market that grows faster this way.

Futuur is in the same predictions market but hasn't grown to that extent, is it that futuur still lacking behind the marketing strategy or that it's based on non US region?

In my estimation, this is a great news. First more entrants into the market means competitors will be tougher and when there is stronger competition, the customers will be the ones to benefit from it. Monopoly and tyranny will reduce. I wonder how this will affect the gambling industry because in as much as they look the same they are very different in so many ways. It makes me wonder if gambling operators are bothered about this.

Yes. I also read recently that Coinbase is starting to offer prediction market with the help of Kalshi. More of them will come but I do not know how the this news is.

Prediction markets are not offering casinos games, they only offer sports but I do not think this will affect the gambling sites. There is already so much competition in gambling sites, what if we see prediction markets as gambling sites, they will just still just be part of the competition and nothing more. But casinos will still be a reason that makes them both very different.

If it is about gambling and sport betting, I prefer gambling sites.

Theranos was value-based on what that thing once launched could earn...
Kalshi is already working, it's online, it can take customers' bets, and it's still only $24 million in revenue, to achieve a 11 billion actual market cap...
Let's compare numbers:
Flutter,  marketcap 40 billions, revenue 15 billions
Klashi, marketcap 11 billions, revenue 20 millions
See the problem?
They would need to grow their revenue 200 times to match that of a publicly traded gambling company!
200 times!!!!!

Congratulations to Gemini for getting approval to launch a prediction market in the US, the country is a big market for any business to flourish, hopefully it opens the door for more prediction platforms. Polymarket is a huge success and I believe that Gemini will also do very well as many gamblers are looking for new thrills. Prediction market will do very well as many people who don't want to engage in casino games and bets due to religious or moral reasons will see prediction as a none gambling or soft gambling. Prediction covers a wide range of areas that has nothing to do with bets so it will appeal to more people that wants to put money on how they predict the outcomes of events.

Do not mind the name prediction market, they are all gambling. I just do not know the reason gambling sites are not going into prediction markets on their gambling sites. I think it will also be profitable for them as well. But gambling sites that are well established are earning money very well from what they are offering their customers. If elections like United States presidential elections can be on gambling sites, others supposed to be there also just as they are on prediction markets.

Wow, if Coinbase is going to do this, I can predict their we may see their counterparts maybe Kucoin and the other test the waters. Everyone will try to scramble for their share of the market.

On of the ways I look at it is that those who are going to gamble for fun will most likely spend their time in the casino and other gambling sites, while those who are just after the money will spend most of their time on these prediction sites if they think they have a good chance of winning compared to the casino. If they think otherwise or are not so sure, they will just split their about 50-50 between the casino and prediction sites.

It is very possible that with time more exchanges will join, the last time I visited Kucoin.com, they have a page for sites that are providing prediction market already. That means they are also thinking in that direction. It is good to know that even Gemini that we are discussing about on this thread is also a crypto exchanges, so we should expect more exchanges to start their own prediction market also.

I thought there were casinos that offer almost similar services like Bitcoin and other currencies. Predicting only live events is what I have not seen available. If I can remember correctly, a casino like Rollbit offers Bitcoin predictions; if not Rollbit, then it will be another casino on this forum.

Just after that news Gemini's stock spike up 30%. it seems the momentum is still there for the prediction market to exist in the US. However, someday when everyone has their own prediction market, there's nothing special about that.

I'm not callin this idea bad, but it must be limited. let's imagine to have tens or more prediction market in the same country.

Prediction market bubble is on the way.  :D :D

I see what is happening here and have said it previously. But right now, I can predict that it is not going to go well for them. Granted, I may be wrong but it is just my instinct telling me that. In my estimation, exchanges should be focused on their thing and let other people enter the prediction market. These exchanges will be pulled in so many directions that they may even lose track of what their core business is. We'll the future will tell.

It looks like Coinbase is going to be launching prediction markets this week too. I wonder if that will have a positive effect on the stock. If only there was a place we could bet on things like this…

With the US market so large, it is very natural that more platforms are interested in entering the prediction market because it has so much potential and there is still a lot of room to take profit, companies like Gemini certainly do not waste this opportunity, especially when Gemini already has a strong base in the US, it won't take long for them to setup everything and attract users.
Their entry may make the prediction market even more competitive, and it is possible that Gemini will become one of the major players in this market.

Of course this what many want because they are not that being tied by law and much regulation which wouldn't favor their services, we can take for an insight about casinos and betting site where Government are becoming that strict with them, and anyone who fails to comply would either seized their operation from that country or entire quit.
Now that the US is now giving approval to prediction market I wouldn't be that surprise to see many gambling site upgrading to prediction market just to have the free license to operate on that geopolitical zone without obstruction.