Bitcoin Forum

Hello everyone,

Onchain data shows multiple cost basis metrics confirm heavy demand and investor conviction around the 80,000$ price level.

So, Bitcoin rebounded from the 80,000$ region after a sharp correction from its October ATH, with price holding above the average entry levels of key metrics. Also, the convergence of the TMM (stands for True Market Mean), U.S. ETF cost basis, and the 2024 yearly cost basis around the low 80,000$ range highlights this zone as a major area of structural support.

BTC has so far bounced above 90,000$, 15% higher from its Nov. 21 low of around 80,000$, with price finding confluence support across three important cost basis metrics; the TMM, average U.S. spot ETF cost basis and the 2024 yearly volume weighted cost basis.

The TMM
Firstly, the TMM, represents the average onchain purchase price of BTC held by active market participants. It focuses on coins that have moved recently, filtering out long dormant supply, and therefore reflects the cost basis of investors who are most likely to trade. During the pullback, the TMM sat near 81,000$ and acted as clear support (https://imgur.com/a/TOzdORA).

The average U.S. spot ETF cost basis
Secondly, the U.S. spot ETF cost basis reflects the weighted price at which BTC has flowed into U.S. listed spot ETFs. The average cost basis currently sits around 83,844$, and BTC once again bounced off this level, which it similarly did during the April tariff-driven selloff (https://imgur.com/a/llH1wsm).

The 2024 yearly cost basis
And the third metric, the 2024 yearly cost basis, tracks the average price at which coins acquired in 2024 were withdrawn from exchanges. The 2024 cost basis near 83,000$, according to checkonchain, provided additional confirmation of demand, again was also seen as support during the April correction (https://imgur.com/a/bnrWhlg).

These metrics highlight the depth of demand of support in the $80,000 region.
(source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/12/these-three-metrics-show-bitcoin-found-strong-support-near-usd80-000)
(source: https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/pricing/pricing_yearlycostbasis/pricing_yearlycostbasis_light.html)
(source: https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/mvrv_aviv_1/mvrv_aviv_1_light.html)
(source: https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/glassnode-studio_average-cost-basis-of-us-spot-etf-deposits.png)

Looking forward to hear your opinions,
Confounding

hmm 80k price and the s21xp

lets look at the miners angle

at 90k he gets 3.78 cents x 270= $10.26

at 80k he gets 3.33 cents x 270 =   $9.07

both cases he burns 87.6 kwatts

10 cent power = $8.76 burned

so at 90k he makes a mere 10.26-8.76=$1.50

at 80k he makes a smaller   9.07-8.76= $0.29

I would say most mining is commercial
and maybe 6 cents is what they pay.

so maybe $5.25 burn for the s21xp and a gross profit of $5.01 for the 90k price

and a gross profit of $3.82 for the 80k price.


I know there are s21pros and s21 plus units running

so you can see for mining at commercial levels 80k is barely ok.

I wonder if we drop to 65k how long does it take to shake a lot of miners out.

I am thinking more about history, past market cycles, past Bitcoin corrections from ATHs to bottoms, as main parts of my accumulation plan for the coming bear market.

I understand that I can not time the market, can not identify the market bottom but I make my plan for DCA accumulation and also reserve a fund for intensive purchases around bottom price area. That bottom fund will be used together with another fund for DCA and around bottom area, I will start to use it for purchasing bitcoins.

I think in this bear market, Bitcoin will be corrected about 55% to 65% or maximum 70% from ATH and my bottom DCA purchases will start when Bitcoin price falls to about $60k or $57k.

We are soon going to find out about this, especially now when the selling pressure is high. I am a bit certain that before we even see Christmas, the price might tumble past $80K, maybe towards the $74-75K region.

I don't if we shall have that full-blown bear market that we used to have in the past cycles now that we have new players in the game that keep buying those lows every time BTC tries to drop, but I don't think $80k will hold for long.

We've already lost at least 30% from the ATH. By the looks of it, there are more downward movements in the coming months. It seems the new players who are buying the lows couldn't absorb the entire pressure. I'm bracing for around 60% correction. The bulls are barely breathing. Saylor's almost $1 billion purchase yesterday even failed to resuscitate them, didn't even trigger a short green.

I'm a bit curious though because I've read around 3 days ago that exchanges' supply has registered a new low. Could it be that OTC supply is overflowing?