Bitcoin Forum

According to this interview (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=558963.0), China is THE reason why Bitcoin went to $400+.
However, if the rumors of April 15 are to be true, there are good reasons to believe BTC will never go back to the moon anytime soon. Here's why.

In China, Bitcoin is not considered a currency. It's a commodity. It's the symbol of quick profit. If you invest in BTC, you'll probably become rich.
There's absolutely no infrastructure supporting the value of BTC in China. It's purely built on speculation, yet people buy because BTC has been promoted as a quick money-making scheme.
In fact, the vast majority of investors in China don't know anything about BTC. They didn't study the fundamentals and fail to see the pyramid scam behind the scene.

However, smart Chinese exchanges have exploited this very lucrative situation and have found increasingly easier ways to fund your account.
Indeed, you can transfer money from your bank account, 3rd party deposit and even buy vouchers to buy BTCs within hours.

Again, BTC wasn't built on a robust infrastructure, but on speculation. Recently, we've reached a point where the ponzi pyramid became unsustainable.
Bitcoin's popularity in China drove its price up way too fast, way too soon, and the risks posed by the situation have become very concerning for the health of RMB and the safety of the people doing stupid things, such as investing at the top of the pyramid.

This is why the Chinese government needs to apply strict regulation to Bitcoin in order to save itself and protect its own people.
How? They won't prevent the trading of Bitcoin in China. However, they will make it really hard to convert Bitcoin to RMB in the future, by closing bank accounts and suspending 3rd party deposits.
They will probably let the exchanges run, but because it will be unprofitable for them, they will have to move offshore to continue their business.

What will happen next? Bobby Lee confirms that we're in a bubble and that an industry reshuffle will occur after April 15. Draw your own conclusions.

However, the price crash will be good for the future of Bitcoin.
Jeremy Allaire, CEO of Circle, believes that Bitcoin won't grow without the collaboration of institutional investors, banks and governments.
That said, most institutional investors are interested in the protocol of Bitcoin, but won't invest at this price.
When the price drop happens, we will see more adoption and more investors.
Investors will put more effort in creating a stable and robust infrastructure for Bitcoin, which will be good for long-term health.
etc...

The PBoC chose to remove China from the BTC economy for the time being.  I'm rather glad of that really, as I don't think they are a good influence.  The Chinese people will continue to accumulate bitcoin as a store of value, if they are wise.  The sentiment impact is clearly very negative, but the fundamentals seem favorable.

Even if BTC were outlawed in China (which is not the case) then it would still be used for the black market.  The black market alone is enough to take BTC into 5 digits, USD.  But thankfully, we have no actual dependency on black market uses, because infrastructure is advancing, as is merchant adoption.  I personally expect some events to cause a new grow spurt in June/July, but if one does not materialize, I foresee that the offering of an ETN by either Second Market or the Winklevoss trust in Q4 2014 or Q1 2015 will open the largest channel ever for the inflow of fiat money into the BTC ecosystem, whereupon a superbubble may occur, driving the price by as much as a factor of 100x.

Merchant adoption isn't good for BTC short-term. It's a way to cash out, and merchants automatically convert BTC to fiat upon transaction, which puts more sell pressure. There's no reason for anyone not interested in virtual currencies to buy BTC. This is why we need to build an infrastructure first. What do we have now? ATMs with retina scan?

I believe a price crash is absolutely essential for the long-term health of Bitcoin. I can quote many CEOs, even Bobby Lee..

I think we are already in a price crash and well into it as well considering that Bitcoin has been a series of spikes and falls rather the opposite factor is worth looking at what will make BTC go to the moon presently.

The price has crashed.  I don't think that was essential, but it was inevitable.  Institutional investors will buy when price is below discounted value, risk-adjusted, and do not care about the numeraire.
Why would you think otherwise?

How can China be out if they are mining half the bitcoins?

Second Market buys half the bitcoins, give or take.  Dirty cadres in China get the rest.  Everyone else just fights over the scraps left by previous generations.

It will be an interesting year for bitcoin :) i dont think it will go to the moon again...

I don't think we're done yet. Do you really think China has dumped yet?

China will only dump when Huobi and BTCChina reveal that they have to close their bank accounts and move offshore. Then it will be a shitstorm.

There's only one way out.. BTC -> Fiat. First come, first served. Not the other way around. I don't think we'll see enough support to stay in the $400s.. that's wishful thinking.

Again, quote me in two weeks if my prediction is off, but I do think we'll see a "market reshuffle". Bobby Lee sees the notice as “pre-dawn darkness.”


Implying that they already know bank transfers will be disabled.. just wait till they announce it.

Short question "How could BTC go to the moon if China is out?"

Short answer: if you think China is out you are wrong. You think Chinese traders will stop trading?
Uhm :)
I guess not really and not all of them :)

It will be ok. Bitcoin need a time.

If China really does ban Bitcoin, its value will go up, for the same reason heroin is more costly than tylenol.

Bitcoin fulfills an important need in China, which is the freedom to control one's own money. This need will still be there even if Bitcoin is banned, and when there's a desire for something, regulations do not matter. Thus not only they will still buy bitcoins, but they will be ready to pay more for them, because of the legal risks seller will take, plus the that fact that it will be more scarce. So black market sellers will buy Bitcoins for say 500$ on Hong Kong exchanges, sell them for 600$ to his costumer, then repeat the process until Bitcoin's value is on the moon again. In fact, they probably do this already for buyers who desire anonymity thus aren't willing to buy on exchanges.

People who are shorting are taking a huge risk right now.

If Bitcoin is a good thing, it will succeed with or without China.

How much volume was China based when the price went from $12 to $266 in 3 months?

every government banning crypto shoots on its feet......if China do that makes a BIG BIG mistake, staying out the future. They simply can't. If they do it they'll change back direction like a the JFK bullet ;D

edit: typos

china is not end of the world or beggining, its just one country

That depends how short term you are thinking. To me, short term is a year. On that time scale, merchant adoption is good.

So if you want the price of Bitcoin to go up, do not order Pizza from places that don't accept Bitcoin. Don't order your Whisky from there. Don't play their games. Make this chart go up:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
to da moon. The price will follow.

[EDIT:] If you want to know a good reason why it is unwise to pay Pizza and Whiskey with Paypal & friends: Ask yourself if your health insurance company might be interested in that information. Ask yourself if your bank might be interested to know you play Poker.

What was bitcoin's maximum market cap (~$12billion?) and user acceptance (a few million?)... even with China involved that's not even a scratch on the surface. USA alone can surpass that market cap and user adoption once this technology becomes simple and convenient and when the right tools/infrastructure is available. I don't expect much out of 2014, but I have hopes for 2015 and 2016