Bitcoin Forum

https://i.imgur.com/zvAy8Mu.png

I cannot believe I am still hearing people vigorously advocating taking a long position right now and that this is the bottom because their perception of 'previous cycles'.

A blind man could read this chart and tell you that it's not a good time to buy. It's more like... time to gtfo, take a 3 month vacation, and maybe put an alert in with a charting service to alert you when the 1W emas or 1W MACD has crossed back up. Weekly emas have only ever crossed down once in the history of bitcoin, in 2011. All you have to do is open your eyes and see.

All you have to do is stop being deluded with your thoughts of how bitcoin is the holy grail and so great that it is impervious to downtrends and long drawn out bear markets. Even the strongest stocks in the stock market with the best growth fundamentals have these types of bear markets when the economy gets bad and there is trouble overseas. Stop being deluded with logically flawed thoughts and chart readings and log lines of how you're entitled to a 'cycle' with a rally every 9 months. You think you can pick the bottom based on "sentiment" on forums and a time position within a "cycle". This is all based only on infantile pattern recognition and bad math, and people seeing only what they want to see on charts but failing to recognize divergences. One such obvious divergence is the RSI divergence on the weekly chart which indicates that the uptrend with 9 month cycles is over.

Also, stop thinking that "wall street" is suddenly going to "move in" to save a bunch of lucky tech kids and turn them into billionaires. It's like you have some sense of entitlement. "I bought 50,000 bitcoins before bitcoin was cool. Now I am entitled to be a billionaire. It's time for my scheduled 9 month rally. I want it now. Where is my train?" It's not coming... Just open your eyes and look at the weekly chart. The chart tells all. Trade the chart, not the news and what traders are talking about on forums.

I refuse to acknowledge any chart that does not feature hand drawn dinosaurs.

Deeply sorry for your personal bitterness and frustration.

I will continue to accumulate bitcoin at the most rapid feasible pace.

If I had no drawdown tolerance, I would not be buying bitcoin.

The more you warn of the folly of buying now, the more convinced I become.

Why are you so emotionally invested in this?  Let people sink or swim, no one's going to say "Oh thank-you, oh wise TERA.  Thank-you for showing me the light that I cannot find on my own".

Let it go.

Thank you TERA!, for providin solid TA over the last months!

C'mon bagholders sell your stash, you'll get in much cheaper. Pay no mind to the bulltards who got you in this deep shit  :)

Raw emotion propelled us to new heights. It's only fitting that the same force should bring us crashing down.

everyone on this sub forum is trying to convince everyone else to sell... hmmm

Isn't it?  Sometimes I sit here and wonder how much of a self-fulfilling prophecy this subforum is.

I miss the days when you were permabull on 8$.  Better times then.

TERA is right, but 3 months? not sure bout that, but we will see on that.

When I see irrational statements, I am compelled to refute them. Rather than constantly refuting the same thing in 100 places, eventually I start a thread and give it an 'emotional' spin so hopefully i can catch attention draw all of the discussion here and do it in one place to solve the debate or spread the idea once and for all. I guess it's a futile effort though.

How can your "emotional spin" possibly improve rationality?  What, in your post, had the logical or factual basis to form a refutation of anything?  I'm not seeing it.

Why? This place is a disaster full of trolls and people screwing noobs to play into their hands.

The people who actually want to talk TA and have meaningful discussion should really start their own self-moderated threads and keeps the idiots and trolls out.  Simple as that.  The fact the Blitz has no intention of keeping this place in any sort of order coupled with Theymos (?) removing the Newbie Jail has sent this whole place in a downwards spiral.  No amount of rational thought or logically structured argument is going to win against the trolls and book talkers.  

I'm also a big bitcoin bear.

I don't look at charts but following the price and volume of bitcoin sold it is looking really bad at the moment.

Bitcoin is ready to take a fall below $400 soon. Buying demand has all but dried up. Every rally has failed. All the rallies are stopped by people dumping.

A lot of people want to GTFO, as Terra would put it. They are just doing it in the rallies to either get a better price or not to push the price down even further.

The forum is full of people trying to find hope in a higher price, like the Chinese going to the Hong Kong Exchange.

To me it all looks like one big Ponzi scheme and everybody is looking for ways to how it will continue.

My advice would also be to GTFO right now. If you want to buy in later than do so at a more sustainable level.

The upcoming Blood Moon is a clear bullish sign due to the confirmed fact that it turns otherwise perfectly sensible traders into weresharks. Only a few days left to go!

My TA hasn't always been perfect. I am off on a lot of targets, have posted charts with cycles and log lines, was a bull once, and even posted pictures of trains.

*shrugs*

I just think that Bitcoin is enormously undervalued and that awareness is spreading very quickly. I think the "ticking bomb" model best describes the price of Bitcoin (in its early years)... it's very quiet and then a large investment dramatically moves the price upwards.

But But BUTTTT.

History = causation! <- idiots say that a lot.

In fact, History != causation.

Good to see someone with some sense.

BTC is down ~67% and you "cannot believe" smart money is buying? (and some dumb money too)
If it goes lower, buy even more.

Most important:
By the time your charts tell you to buy, BTC will already be up ~33% (or more) from the bottom.  :D

Why are you against others voicing an opinion contrary to yours? Not all things are "the best ever" and not all "moons" happen multiple times. Stocks go under, altcoins have gone under, BTC isn't any different, just has less risk of going under. Don't act like because it has the best chance that it is impervious to failure.

That's what the OP has a problem with. People who are 24/7 MOON MOON OMFG BUY NOW BEST MOON EVER COMING UP TONIGHT.

This is the part that always gets me. People don't wanna buy until the price starts rising. They don't wanna buy until it's higher than it is now. I'm sure there is a simple psychological explanation for this, but it just seems really dumb.

Altough some of the forum members might disarguee with me, but i always considered your TA as neutral, unemotional and unbiased as possible in here.
Just because you have some feelings against the bulltards in here never meant that you wouldn´t have taken the chance to position long for a bull-trap(reversal), and declared it
with TA. These are two complete different topics. Keep up the good work.

Explain why it will go up 33%. I always see people discounting that it "can't go any lower" and its because "THEY SAY SO".

Why do you say so. Tell me multiple factors. Give me 20 signs that it is going "moon" again. Bet you can't.

Not only is it the BEST moon, it is the best Blood Moon™ evah!

It's called "risk".

Discounting that it can't go lower is a double negative btw.

Why not. Just do it. I, for one, would be happy to read it (and (promise!) never write ;D )

What a rigorous analysis

I wish I had "deep pockets", since BTC is a traders paradise.
For anyone who is long-term Bullish now is a great time to buy, and if it goes lower...
Even better.

a simple psychological explanation for this
Lemmings.
Simply.... lemmings everywhere.  :)

You mentioned "smart money" earlier.

Yeah smart money doesn't bottom fish.

What do you propose my opinion is that TERA's is so contrary to?  Also, don't put words in my mouth, especially after your little BTC is BANKING and it sucks because I lost all my money wah wah wah post you made the other day.


Then OP should put them on ignore like anyone else with half a brain in their head would.  

Sometimes the truth is extremely simple.
By the time "moving averages" give a buy signal the market is (usually) well above the bottom.
Is that a big surprise to you?

Buy low, sell high
Clearly you must be mistaken.


Edit:
Why bother....
I deleted a link the would make you a better trader.
Perhaps someone else will be willing to teach you.  :D

I can tell you exactly why TERA is just as emotional as the CCMFers and the future quadrillionaires.

Because TERA doesn't know either.

The charts right now mean absolutely NOTHING until we get solid news on China. This is why there is no volume anywhere and why the price is stable: it is only stable because there is so little certainty in either direction and no one knows wants to buy in such an uncertain time.

Why is BTER re-enabling deposits? Why does Bobby Lee sound both confident and scared? Why are some exchanges following the PBOC and some not?

When the news comes, we're either gonna see panic buy spikes up to $550-$600, or we're going to see a drop once again down to $400 to test support. If the support fails, then God knows where the price will drop to.

And so TERA is standing here with her TA bible shouting about how the end is nigh and how we're all fools for not seeing it in the holy charts. And her insecurity over what the price is actually going to do is reflected in her need for others here to affirm her beliefs.

Normally TERA is probably the most intelligent and rational poster on this forum, one of the few who actually posts quality information and discussion.

This topic does not reflect that.

computers can operate macds too.... but they dont make money like that. I dont think wall street is going to save anyone, but the macd doesnt give a crap either.

cant believe the basis of this thread is trend and not bullish at the same time.

Clearly

https://i.imgur.com/nlu8E8D.jpg

Thanks but I don't need any of your grand wisdom, you've made your point

The news is in the charts, before the news even comes out. You don't need news.

What is this obsession with calling china "news" anyway?  China is not a piece of information. China is a country, a real place, full of real people, exchanges, coins and fiat.

What a rigorous analysis.
 

Dunno much TA, but if we break 400 now, brimstone is upon traders. It will be like the Dark Ages of the bitcoin world. With the plagues and all.

This. Your posts are becoming more and more cringe worthy, TERA. You might be right, but you don't need to be an asshole about it. If you really care about convincing others of "the truth", your recent style of presentation is doing your goal a disservice.

on a related note: wouldn't it be kind of neat, if the bottom was in today? 10th of April...you know, the day we had the 266$ peak during the last cycle?  :)

All I did was call you out on a weak argument

What are you trying to say here

It's almost like Freddie Mercury predicted the BTC market in the 70's.

Bohemian Rhapsody

Is this the real life?
 Is this just fantasy?
 Caught in a landslide,
 No escape from reality.

 Open your eyes,
 Look up to the skies and see,
 I'm just a poor boy, I need no sympathy,
 Because I'm easy come, easy go,
 Little high, little low,
 Anyway the wind blows doesn't really matter to me, to me.

Looks to me that TA works best in regulated markets, with fair clear rules.
I feel Bitcoin have a lot of underground movements, blockchain analysis might be best suited. For what i know it could be convenient for big capitals to keep exchanges prices low and buy straight from miners. China have the infrastructure/skill to build their own high performance miners as well, to me this only means that exchanges are only a (small) attempt to trade something new in a old way.
Also, from past experiences, unless i read some clear, straight and official statement i tend to consider everything as price manipulation attemps (bullish therefore).
That said i highly respect the work of skilled analysts.

Agree, now can you please follow your own advice?

when everyone says sell, thats when I buy  ;D

Bull circle jerk only?

How does the chart posted in OP guarantee that we are going lower again?

Isnt that ironic

At this point I don't care about catching the bottom. I cared whether I had bought the bottom when I bought 700, and then 600, and then 500. But at 400 and below it doesn't matter to me.  At this point I only care that my eventual rebuy price (if i rebuy) is lower than the price now, and that is most likely to be true. It's too risky to try to bottom fish or to hold fiat on exchanges for more months. Getting a price significantly above bottom is fine if it eliminates risk factors and allows the funds to be used for something else productive in the meantime. There may be an entire 6 month rally to recover from 200 to 350 before my 1W signal is given. But by that time, I may have increased my funds by a factor of 10 in forex/stock trading and business ventures.

I'm not totally sure what to make of your post tera. On the one hand I understand your frustration with the irrational bullishness of this forum (I sometimes think it should be renamed to "Cheerleading" instead of "Speculation"), but on the other hand your post sounds a bit passive aggressive. I like your analysis, so I just hope you don't turn into another rambling doom&gloom type poster.


About your technical argument itself:

I made a post in the wall thread yesterday, where I went on about how relevant (or not) a weekly, or in my example: 3 day, EMA crossover is. Link here. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6143006#msg6143006) To recap:

I would be careful drawing too much conclusions from that crossover alone. You correctly pointed out yourself that, after just a few 9 month rally cycles, people here feel "entitled" to another big rally now, which is silly of course. But that works the other way around as well: Just because we /once/ had a long decline after a similar crossover in 2011 doesn't mean we inevitably will see another one now.

Also, I don't know the exact parameters you used for the EMAs, but did you check how profitable a "pure" strategy based on those weekly EMAs would have been in 2011? Because the one I looked at (3d EMA40+20) was basically profit neutral: you would have sold about half way into the 2011 bear market, and bought back pretty deep into the recovery. So I would be careful about advising to "sell now, buy back when they CO again" -- those super-slow momentum indicators are incredibly lagging, so if someone in here is really convinced of the /long-term/ success of Bitcoin, he might rationally resist selling too deep into a downtrend, because he might not be quick enough to see the reversal and buy back in.

Okay.... But all of that said, I agree with the gist of your argument: a large number of technical indicators (including momentum ones like EMAs) tell us that we're still deep into the downtrend, and there's little signs of reversal. So all those bulls cheering at any upwards move of 5$, calling it a reversal, sure can stuff it.

 ::)

You've had a good year or two and now you think you're a master. Hubris.

I take my decisions based on my view about what the technology can offer in the future and what kind of products can be developed on top of it...

1 - I don't listen to FUD,
2 - Sometimes I listen to technical analysis (descriptive statistics, inductive statistics ) but knowing its limitations.
3 - I prefer see bitcoin as a new technology breakthrough.  

Pssst. When I drive with my car I look in the driving mirror to predict the next curve.

Haha, good one. I didn't see him refuting himself in the same post. Hm, for the record: I prefer the 2 weeks EMA and this one is still above.

I have to say that TERA is quite brave for making these posts.
To most of the people here, it's totally normal if someone creates a topic that talks about bitcoin hitting 10 000$ soon. But if someone creates a topic that the bitcoin price will fall, then there will be a whine storm about why is he doing it, and how bitter and WRONG he is.

Anyway, I understand the frustration because I know the feeling. I already saw this in December, that the markets in China are running on borrowed time and just waiting till bureaucracy catches up to them. I sold in December, after the first statement from PBoC, that they don't want to see any business activity in China involving bitcoin. It got clear then, that it's just a matter of time when this stance is put on paper and executed. It was common sense.
I was called all kinds of things in January, when I was asking for people not to fuel these dumb pumps, that only had the support of denial, desperation and foolish hopes. It's funny to see how everything is unfolding, but there are still people who desperately try to call for new "trend reversals" and curse at people who won't go along with this stupidity.
Bitcoin is a nice piece of technology, but the majority of people surrounding it are fools, who are both ignorant and arrogant at the same time. I think that the overly steep deflation rate is to blame here, that attracts these get-rich-quick people, who truly think that if you believe in something really-really hard, then it will come true. When they aren't attending self-help motivational classes, called "5 easy steps on how to be a millionaire!", then they're attending this forum and trying to convince people that the price will rise to unprecedented heights.

TERA/the sheep who believes this pessimistic stupid bs:


If I Place a buy order and make the price go up for 1 second. Just 1 second. And make a 1-second chart showing that the price is going up. Are you as easily convinced, as With this post, that the price is going up?


We've been here before. Charts been looking like this... what, 5 times? Just go back to the last/middle pages of this Specualation Forum and read the People swearing it will never go over 30. Never go over 100. NEVER 200. And definately 200 is the Maximum. Well it will never ever go over 1000.

That's the history of Bitcoin. Goes along With any FULL graph showing bitcoin in its FULL timespan.



Logic patterns are not 100% correct? Ofcourse not. I personally do however believe Logic to be a more accurate way of predicting something than just an emotional reaction i get from watching a pessimisticly manipulated graph(Manipulated because IT DOESN'T SHOW THE FULL TIMESPAN OF BTC).

"I cannot believe I am still hearing people vigorously advocating taking a long position right now and that this is the bottom because their perception of 'previous cycles'."

You're using charts dude. Charts only are useful to understand past data It's been proven thoudsands of times that charts can't been seriously taken into account to predict the future of markets. 

+1
TA is only good if other traders use it, too. So it gets somehow a self-fulfilling prophecy. Most of the people don't care. They sell and buy based on bad or good news. The price has deacreased to the current level because of bad news out of China(and other news). That the price just touched 400$ again (support level) is because buyer placed a big support wall at 400$. Why? They can't predict the future. Maybe they used TA (self-fulfilling prophecy).

I know that there are many people waiting with millions in their hands to invest in Bitcoin. The question is only how long they will wait. Because of the intrinsic value of the Bitcoin network I see a longterm benefit for users so I don't worry. But sure, I am not happy about the recent price drops. Just because I could have made a lot of money if I would have sold and bought back now.

Indeed, I also don't care anymore where the bottom is. Shorting bitcoin the past couple of weeks has given me good profits to be content enough not to easily fall for bull traps. I'll just let others decide where the bottom is.

Smart move.
The desperate fools and the manipulators who want to dump at a better price, want you to believe that the bottom won't last long, so everyone would panic buy to "get cheaper coins". But actually, when the real bottom is met, then everyone will have a month or more to buy at the bottom.

These kind of posts make me only say. Watch out - next bubble is coming. And Bitcoin will go like 15x then, because Bitcoin is far far from what it should become. We just started adopting it. My fiat is waiting for the bottom, and I refuse to believe it will be under 270$ because it's not natural.

neither are these  :o
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