Bitcoin Forum

I see too much blind optimism. Everyone thinks bitcoins will rise to the moon again.

Remember some points.

1) Bitcoins are as useless now as they ever were

2) Bitcoins are not a commodity, they are not consumed. Everyone who bought on the way up, needs to eventually sell them.

3) The market is very tiny, and is growing slowly at best.

4) 5,000-7000 new bitcoins come into existence every single day.

5) Most people sit with bitcoins on a rally, but eventually it will stall and they will start selling. This will push the price back down.

6) Obvious signs of price manipulation for the pushes. Is it someone using the push, rinse and repeat strategy playing on many of blind optimist suckers?

7) Now that the price has been potentially manipulated higher, will the manipulators keep shelling out their cash to try and hold the price high?

8) Anybody who wants bit coins already owns a substantial number of these useless coins. Will they keep buying more to help maintain a high price? Who are the new suckers coming into the market now and buying them?

9) Market depth supporting the now $5.00 price is looking very weak on mt. gox.

10) Last but not least, who the hell is stupid enough to pay $5.00 now for a bitcoin?

You need a life.

I agree with OP.

There's some good media hype and some interesting new projects/developments lately, but have you seen the spread shift on Gox Live?

Notice the slope of the asks on Gox Live versus the slope of the bids which is largely comprised of huge bid walls.  There are like 5 people truly supporting the price right now while the rest of the "bulls" follow in their footsteps.  Bullishness seems down quite a bit from the New Years rally.  We have a market of pseudo-bulls.

Prices may cross over $5 again and up toward $6, but it's speculation speculation speculation.  

I remember in like 1992 I was 12 or 13 years old, my mom was taking some "computer applications" evening class at a community college, and I went with her sometimes.  It was really fun for me because the student worker lab guy had all the comps in the lab networked together, and had a hidden directory where Wolfenstein was installed on each one.  So he'd deathmatch with me when he had free time (which was about 100% of the time I was there).
He told me really neat stories... one in particular stood out all these years:  I saw him sending an email, wondered what it was, so he told me of this thing called the Internet, where people could talk with each other all over the planet, anytime, free(ish), any distance.  I asked him why all my friends that have computers didn't know about the Internet, and he replied "well dude they're probably not as geeky as I am".  I asked him if he thought they would ever be and he said, "I have no way of knowing, but I can say only this:  They are faced with a choice between protecting false dignity now, and reaping wild success later".

Those words impacted me like few others.

I just bought some. So I could buy something with them. Useless eh? pfft.

New hype means new users. Just picture 1 million people in the would buying only 1 Bitcoin each.



Exactly my sig.

This is the same information that has been detailed by many others yet the price has gone up. The price also went up in the spring when the same information applied as much, and if not more. Who the hell was stupid to buy at $10, at $20, at $25? Who? A whole lot of people.

We are clearly in a correction now, it is not doomsday yet.

When bitcoin hit $0.5 for the first time I guess there was a topic just like that, adjusted by a factor of 10. Now nobody beileves bitcoins at 0.2 are reality anymore, just because the financial power of the group of people investing into BTC has grown.

Will it stay the same tomorrow? Grow tenfold? Noone knows for sure, but right now the userbase is still pretty small (I'd say at ~1000 active investors) and I see it definitely growing to 10-20 thousand people actively trading at mtgox this year.

Op spotted a downtrend.


http://i369.photobucket.com/albums/oo135/YantaiSeaDog/Claps.gif

+1 and thankfully I did too, recouped some losses from a quick short position

The downtrend was already happening and was an expected correction anyway. There had been a huge sell off already when this was posted. =)

Some blind optimism.

http://www.thebitcointrader.com/2011/12/10-most-anticipated-bitcoin-projects.html

I was sleeping, literally.


I only earned 4 btc from this downtrend. Looking forward to wednesday and thursday

Okay Mommy! I won't let the bad BitCoin men take advantage of me.  ::)

Aren't we all adults here (well mostly)?  I don't think we need to be babysat!

omg! he's right! bitcoins are stupid, stupid bitcoins  >:(
 :-X

Edward50 send me your coins all send you something useful..

would you like:
cigarettes?
or maybe ... a butt plug?   ;)

A few days ago I got paid a few thousand dollars by someone overseas. Happened instantly, with no fee, no delay, and at 11pm in the evening.

Bitcoin is a useless as the automobile.

except that Bitcoins cannot be created at will while USD....... are being created with ever increasing speed.

To clarify your example, you'd need to mention that the automobile is electric and you live in the country.

I am optimistic now simply because the price held at $2.50 for so long.  Which means, it's not likely to go lower than that.

At $2.50/coin, with 7200 coins generated daily, people believe in Bitcoins enough to inject $18,000/day into the system.  That's a significant amount of money, and I don't think it's just one person, or just a few people.  Pure speculation on my part, but I don't see a system viewed as failed being propped up for this long by this much money by less than a dozen people, and more likely, it is propped up by hundreds.

Then, you look at the future.  We are now less than a year away from mining rewards being cut in half.  As we get closer to that point in time, we will have more and more assurance that the value of Bitcoin has only one way to move, assuming that same $18,000/day injection.

I think $2.50 really was the rock bottom.  There are too many people who believe in Bitcoin and want, badly, to see it succeed, for it to fail completely.  It might forever be a niche item, but that niche will always be there.  And so far, no one has come even close to overturning Bitcoins as the go-to product for the niche.

This is all just my opinion, of course.  ;)

What kind of person wastes time on forums about things they think are fundamentally useless?



Psst... also, not all commodities are consumed. Hint: think metals.

What metals are not consumed?

Generally speaking, precious metals. Primarily gold, now that so many "consuming" industrial uses have been found for silver.

Lots of people drink silver water and gold water and you can find it in your body as well. just saying.

http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/2889/goldab.png


Mmmm...

http://s3.amazonaws.com/readers/trifter/2007/11/26/83587_1.jpg

Best part... several hours after the meal, since you don't digest it, the gold is available once again! ;)

My first transaction was in June last year. End of july 2011 I had est. 2.800 confirmations on this first transaction.

Now I have exst. 30.000 confirmations on this transaction.

So: a lot more people and a lot more BTC-clients are envolved now. The networks hashrate remains even in the descent more or less stable between 6.x and 9.x TH/s - compared to june/july 2011. This network capacity consumes MWatts of electrical power and we all people are paying for it, continued investments as well.

But one of the main arguments is that there is a real exchange rate above the 1:1 ratio USD/BTC. Despite huge selloffs in recent months we had still 1  BTC >/= 2 USD.

Lets assume that is the bottom line. Then this is the usage value for BTC: arround 2 $/BTC. The price for the possibility of nearly instant, trusted, verified and individually based transactions.

Speculation then creates on top value which is then creating the higher and more volatile market value. Sure, there is a lot of speculation but this is for good. It brings money and believe into the system. I just bought these days a new HD 6990, adding up my capacity to 2.5 GH/s.

Then look at the failure of the US supercommittee and look at the souvereign dept crisis in Europe. There might be events in the nearer future of the next two years that could be bring bitcoins into the position of a additional transaction alternative for ordinary people if their trust to normal banks is finally eroded or simple there are no trustworthy banks anymore or we can have a lot of inflation. This will take the usage value upwards significantly and the market value even more.

Start to think yourself about these mechanisms. Start reading ft.com.

It might be naive to be too optimistic. But who on earth had foreseen the rally of May/June/July last year? So its not justified to be too pessimistic as well. We have to decouple our expectations for a fast profit from the BTC system evolution.

And this is real: the system is there, it is evolving and developing. This will take time and we don't know how much. But if there where no market for BTC, it has been vanished last year.

Fucking rad and I could only have said it better myself by cleaning up your english a bit.
You are SO right -- if BTC is "useless", why the fuck are we here???  Goddamn, I know I'm a nerd, but I give myself SOME credit toward doing SOME productive things...

The market is a contest with money as points. So the scoreboard says the OP is wrong. I don't see how anyone can argue with that. I mean, I could say gold is a stupid useless rock. But wtf does my opinion matter when I go to the jewelry store.

Opinion = Ehhh Shiney worthless rock unless

http://troll.me/images/ancient-aliens-guy/im-not-saying-it-was-aliens-but-it-was-aliens.jpg

ahhh worthless posting feels so good. Resume speculation.....

Well that depends on what consumed means, I'm going to arbitrarily group thusly:

"Consumed"
Electronics 7%
Dentistry 2%
Other Industrial Uses 2%
Medals 1%

12%

"Hoarded"
Jewelry 67%
Implied Investment 9%
Bar Hoarding 3%
Net Producer Hedging 3%
Coins 3%

85%

So I reckon the other 3% is what they make bitcoins from, so that means the entire market will be worth 3% of 5.3million troy ounces, at todays prices around $250m so fair price is $11.90 a coin!

heh.

the market doesn't agree with you, Edward

He didn't say it would go to minus infinity today.

There was a point in stopping the bear trolling back when the bust was on, but right now there's really no reason to go against people with either opinion. Bitcoin fundamentals are good, but the rise is faster than the market catches up, so both sides have a point.

I was in on slowing down Edward's bearishness back in the bust, but now that things have turned I don't see a reason to do so. It's good to have a variety of opinions.

here's the reality check:

Edward, possibly, although highly unlikely, bought in at around $2/BTC or below
then he sold at $3.8-4 with hope to re buy again at <$2
then came realization that it's not happening anytime soon, at which point he decided to come on forums again, to spew, like he usually does, his worthless agenda on here

Thanks but I think I will pass on the recycled gold.      ;)

Thats exactly what it looks like.

+1  glad to see you back onboard.

so you now see the psychological impact of price alone.  its self feeding on the way down and causes all sorts of negative sentiment which break us apart.

now on the way back up, we can reunite and make Bitcoin the new alternative. :D

Haha, you've been tracking my sentiments.

I did go from optimistic, to pessimistic, and back to optimistic about the long-term future of Bitcoins.  Reason being, when I was pessimistic, it was because I believed Bitcoin would always be a niche product.  But now, I am beginning to realize that it is enough of a niche to sustain the project, pretty much indefinitely.  I don't see how Bitcoin could ever die completely.

i do indeed track you.  ever since i told you about ascending triangles back in the Spring.  remember that?

but more so i track you b/c you're an important part of the community and i think you do good work from the coding side, Firstbits being one example alone. 

as bullish as i've been, it was discouraging to see many ppl like you go to the dark side.  i could see the negative sentiment permeating the forum.  but i kept the faith and now all of us who have supported the project from the beginning are now getting some redemption.

welcome back!

I remember those ascending triangles, yes...  :P

If this were remotely true, then bitcoin would rise to the moon again.  Considering that the reality is much more muted than it was in the spring, I doubt that there is much blind optimism.


I've personally bought dozens of items online.  The system has a steeper learning curve than using credit cards, but it's easier once you know how.  If it were useless, I would have sold out last year.


Gold isn't consumed either, and your statement that everyone who bought on the way up needs to eventually sell them is just as true with regard to gold.  Gold is still a commodity.  Consumption isn't a necessary requirement.


The market is very tiny, and growing at an estimatable rate of at least 50% APR.  That's not slow by any metric, even though it would still take decades at that rate to match a moderately sized western economy, and that rate is almost certainly not sustainable.


More specificly, 7200 bitcoins come into existence every single day.  It's is because of that precision of increases in the monetary base and the knowledge that the market continues to absorb those new bitcoins without a drop in value is how the growth rate of the economy can be estimated.


Which is just as true with just about anything else, only much less so due to bitcoin's very small economy.  As the economy grows larger, those bubbles will become less and less dramatic.


Probably, but are you a sucker?


Is that your problem? Or theirs'?


Couldn't speculate upon that, but whether they are suckers or not, they keep coming.  So by definition, the bitcoin economy grows.


It always does.  The market depth on mtgox doesn't reflect a significant portion of the market, since there is much more in the 'dark pools' and who use bots to trade without showing up on the data charts.  Don't put too much faith in that.


Obviously, someone is that stupid.  Or that smart, depending on the outcomes.  Time will tell.

Pff.  Whenever I see your name on a post, I just ignore it (I may as well just put you on ignore completely, and you'll be the first which is saying a lot in this community).   You're the biggest bear/downramper/fearmonger/FUD spreader on this forum.

actually it's a valuable life hack to learn who's not worth your time to discuss with.
while ignoring a user don't worry to miss his/her posts completely as some of the stuff eventually shows up quoted by some users you don't ignore in their posts.

So basically this entire thread can be summarized in one line:

Whatever Edward50 advises, do the exact opposite.

Got it!  ;)

Good luck buying a bitcoin for 5$ now  :D

 

If bitcoin takes off this year, I really doubt that we will ever come back down to below $4 unless sometime drastic happens to bitcoin and the network completely dries off. And it's looks like we are getting ready to take off real soon into double digits. Of course there is a chance it may fall back down, but I think it's very slim chance that we will ever see prices we did back in Oct-Dec 2011 unless something drastic happens to bitcoin.

Enjoy the low single digit pricing while you still can.   ;)

My "reality check" arrived! and it was even bigger than I thought it would be. Thanks bitcoin! ;D

at this moment, the Dow is up 100 and entering a new trending phase UP.  the USD is down and UST's are selling off

even oil, gold and silver are up.

RISK ON!

Gut feeling here: if the past trend holds we should steadily march up, with a break-out possible any time.

You can see this on the 10-day 15 minute chart.

CES and aforementioned financial news only add to a potential upward momentum.

yes, i really like the fact that we didn't fail off that descending triangle.  i think it wrong foots the shorts just like the ascending triangle wrong footed the longs at 7.2.

markets like to play nasty.  this is a perfect setup. 

even more so if its a slow grind up as we're seeing.  eventually the shorts will realize what is happening which will result in a panic cover forcing the up spike like you described.

the primary trend is set and in place; UP.

It seems i have to quote myself

it's the manipulator!
he is clearly keeping the price down atm for Edward and Nagle to jump in

Who keeps on digging up all those old threads? Well I guess we have to keep looking at early 2012 prices now in order to feel like current prices are high :D Has it already come this far?  :-\ ;D

Wow, amazing thread. I especially love the part when the OP says, "Last but not least, who the hell is stupid enough to pay $5.00 now for a bitcoin?"  HAHA!! I wish I was that stupid guy who paid $5 for thousands of bitcoins in 2012!!

in OP's defence

bitcoin was pretty useless back them

AFAIK it was already used by Silk Road.
And this necro should remind n00bs that millions of bitcoins were mined / bought at prices below 20$.

Damn necromancers always resurrecting the damned :P

what is this bitcoins thing?

Wow, just wow. Good to keep things in perspective lol

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  ;D

I was.  :D

Well no matter how useless they were but they had the same potential has now, so the smart enough who saw that, made a huge profit.

Sometimes it's good to see these old topics brought up. For example, this thread shows well what the bears said back in 2012.

It's interesting how the same talking points get rehashed over and over.  This is something we still hear a lot: "everyone who wants bitcoins already has them."


I imagine it was people not unlike those paying $566 for a bitcoin right now. 

It's funny how those talking points in the original post are just as valid today as they were then, but somehow the price is 10x higher.  That's one hell of a fugazi.

We'll need someone to invent an entirely new economic model to describe what's going on here.

https://i.imgur.com/bYCDGSj.jpg

You meant 100x, right?

This is evidence that Bitcoin is doing quite well for its youth.  Nearly $4 Million in new bitcoins flood the market *every day* and yet the price is stable.

That means demand is meeting supply.   That means people are buying $4,000,000 worth in bitcoins every day, doesn't it?

Not when Edward50 posted it.

When the next halving hits, that supply will be cut in half, and price should go up.

ceteris paribus yes, but there is no "should" only probable. Also there will be anticipation for this, so the months before the halving should see a price increase, not the day after.

When is the next halving likely to hit, and how many Bitcoins will the block reward go down to?

http://bitcoinclock.com/

12.5BTC
Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-10 02:26:47 UTC (105 weeks, 5 days, 5 hours, 40 minutes)

Due to the continual growth of mining hashpower, the halving will be earlier than expected, perhaps March 2016:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/290prw/reward_halving_is_approaching_fast_due_to/ (http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/290prw/reward_halving_is_approaching_fast_due_to/)

The market is very tiny.

Checkmate, I'll let you figure out why this is perfect for a speculator. EVEN more so with bitcoin believers that are stronger than gold bugs.  People underestimate what our love for bitcoin will result in.

Haha, great bump from this post. Really puts things into perspective. I hope we can bump posts like this 10 years from now about people talking how paying 10K per coin was an insane idea.

Really fascinating. As a study in human "reality making". If you go back and read this guy's posts over the last couple of years, it is amazing how he had already made up his mind (years ago) about what "is true" about bitcoin. And no matter what data shows up over the years that actually conflict with his "truth" he can not accept it, and just keeps believing the same old story. We humans (I include myself in this) obviously mostly only let in data that matches what we already believe (when we are "certain") and only data which supports our current version of reality. It is hard to stay honest to facts, and be truly scientific - and impossible if you have already made up your mind and are "sure"  ;) 

I guess the real reality check is that we make our own reality.

I have always been a bear, but I've never been more optimistic:

1. You couldn't buy a Dell computer pay the TV bill 6 months ago.

2. New buyers are always entering the market. I sold my friend Bitcoin a few days ago. He's a first time buyer.

3. The market is small, with huge potential for growth.

4. Which is probably the only thing holding the price down.

5. What do you think has been happening the past few months?

6. Maybe, but that doesn't mean much long term.

7. No, and manipulators don't profit by holding the price up. They profit by creating volatility.

8. I don't own much, and neither does my friend. I am buying every month and I've bought three times my normal monthly amount this month.

9. Woah, I didn't realize how old this post was! I'm referring to the current $600 pricing. I guess they weren't so stupid, huh?

10. I'll buy up to 21,000,000 BTC at $5.00 if you are willing to sell.

Do you guys just plainly ignore that the original post is from 2012?????????

Nope, see #9. I noticed, but only after I was nearly done writing. :)

I will be "stupid enough to pay $5.00 now", are you still accepting offers by PM?  :D

Seriously, Edward50 was not the only one to feel this way in early 2012; The first "bubble" had a wicked crash (followed by a long slow Bear market), so $5 to $7.50 looked like the high end for BTC prices.

As of RIGHT NOW, 10K seem insane, utterly nuts, ludicrious, mentally disturbed to think about. I want to visit this thread in 10 years and prove myself wrong. This is the last chance for me to get some good luck going. Until them im gonna be racking as much BTC as possible.

Last year, ~$1,200 "seemed insane" since the Bitcoin economy wasn't developed enough. Based on the strong fundamentals I think predictions of ~$25,000 within 5 years are very possible.

What do you think the price will do in the short term?

Markets like to go both ways.  :D
The bounce off the recent low was strong; It seems really likely that BTC will go higher in the next 7 days.

Thanks for Necro'ing this post. It really was more of a reality check in the sense that bears always say the same things and yet here we are at 100x the price since the OP's statement. Along with that the use for bitcoin has grown significantly in terms of where it's spendable, public awareness and usefulness in accepting/sending irreversible payments around the global nearly instantly. Someone needs to necro this post in another 2 years for perspective :)

I found out about Bitcoin when it was $5 but didn't decide to buy until it was $12. I decided not to just yet because I was concerned that there might not be much room on the upside!

You did much better than a lot of people. I have never stopped "loving" BTC as a great project, but...
Bitcoin was way above $50 before I realized the "big bubble" is based on really strong fundamentals.