Bitcoin Forum

The charts don’t lie, and the data plainly show that Bitcoin remains on a slow but steady price decline. A little over a month ago, prices were near $700 — but it’s been all downhill ever since. In some ways a long, slow slide is a worse sign for Bitcoin than a great crash, as the gradual decline may signify a loss of confidence in the system itself. That fear, that the Bitcoin infrastructure itself is insecure, is not entirely without merit.

First came a string of high-profile exchange hacks that bled millions out of exchanges that were insignificant in size, but the headlines tarnished all. The source of the hacks was eventually traced to a flaw in the Bitcoin exchange system. It was a small flaw that was easily fixed — but the damage to Bitcoin’s reputation was already done.

Then there was the nagging speculation that the hack of the Mt. Gox Bitcoin exchange might have been more of a loss than a hack — possibly even a theft. That impression was reinforced by the discovery of $117 million tucked away in a cold storage server. There were rumors of free-spending largess by the CEO of the now defunct exchange in the days prior to the hack. While those rumors are as yet unsubstantiated, the mere fact that the truth behind the disappearance was so difficult to pin down was another blow to user confidence in Bitcoin transactions.

Added to the growing pains of the technology itself were regulators lining up to voice their skepticism about all things Bitcoin, a list that now includes Attorney General Eric Holder. The IRS is labeling Bitcoin as property, a decision that’s currently being appealed.

In yet another minor but frustrating security concern, comes news of the Heartbleed SSL vulnerability. Heartbleed exploits a flaw in OpenSSL, a critical component in the Bitcoin system. While it’s not clear whether any hacks have been directly attributed to Heartbleed, the news caused at least one major exchange to clamp down on Bitcoin withdraws until it’s fixed. While the Heartbleed vulnerability is certain to be patched quickly, it’s just another razor cut to user confidence in Bitcoin.

It’s not any one piece of news that’s particularly bad for Bitcoin, it’s the impression left by the cumulative weight of many annoying little problems. Couple all that with the independent and sometimes aloof nature of the Bitcoin community, and you get a formula for a loss of confidence and declining prices.

As I’ve said before, I remain skeptical of any pronouncements of Bitcoin’s imminent demise. The Bitcoin universe has some very compelling engineering ideas incorporated into its DNA, and there is real value in the frictionless exchange inherent in the system design. The security problems will get resolved, and the community will totter along, weighing the pros and cons of making compromises with “the man” on a number of key issues, including regulation.

For now much of the tech world, and many potential investors, are taking a wait and see approach. Bitcoin is the pioneer in the field soaking up all the arrows, and there’s an unfortunate human tendency to pile on those suffering misfortune.

For the meantime I’d remind my readers that we went through all these mental gyrations and more during the early days of the Internet. We got through those, and I believe Bitcoin will get through this current period of skepticism and instability.



Sources:
http://redteanews.com/2014/04/09/bitcoin-the-downward-trend-continues/#.U0caaPldXfI




-Redtea
Independent News for the Right-Minded American :-*


redteanews.com

I would say it has more to do with the buying patterns of Americans/USD and News Cycles.

Over $1000 during Holiday Time after only being in the 10s in January.

And now it is basically riding that wave - still over valued.

unless something major happens to stimulate its worth, the price will continue to decline until we move into the holiday season again, where it will likely surpass last years rate.

Think of how Gasoline prices do based off of Mideast issues and summer usage cycle.

We have had flatline over the last couple years, only because demand for gas outside the USA has balanced out. We once were the largest consumer of oil/gasoline on planet, now the middle class in other countries means our buying power is almost meaningless.  If we stopped buying gas altogether, it would not matter (like it once did) because the demand on the rest of the planet makes up for any hole we may create.

BTC is the same.   Until DEMAND raises (which will be major acceptance) the price will continue to be bubble after bubble until it all stabilizes.

I think BTC will get crushed in the end, but what comes next will be "the one" and globally accepted.

Not a word about China??

I guess everyone's entitled to their opinions.

I don't really see a problem. Bitcoin has not really taken off just yet - it needs time. I think most of us are in it for the future, not just some fluctuations. If everyone believes this is the future, and we allow it to be the future, and we make it the future, the price will bottom out eventually and the market will soon take it back up.

BTC overvalued are you kidding me?   is way below value, half of bitcoins been mined and is over valued?  wait till the other 20 percent get into bitcoin.  Then lets see how overvalued it will really be.

Bitcoin will only face more antagonism from governments in the future. I don't care, it just makes it more appealing to me.

20% ?  Very few people are bitcoin holders. 

Meh

Still well above the previous ATH.

The recent drop from $1200 that has everyones panties is a bunch is because of China getting in/getting out.

May 2011 $4
May 2012 $5
May 2013 $140
May 2014 $375

There is nothing to panic about if you are in it for the long haul. Go lose a couple thousand trading penny stocks if you are bored of bitcoins slow decline in value.

The future is hard to predict due to geo-political events dictating the price of Bitcoin.

Yes its true the price of Bitcoin has declined. You need to ask yourself do the fundamentals still hold true for why you bought Bitcoin.

In March last year after the Bail-ins took place in Cyprus. The price of Bitcoin rocketed up from $20 dollars to $200. Cyprus makes up only 0.1% of the European Union.

With central banks worldwide in a race to debase their currencies via Quantitative Easing. The fundamentals still hold true for me for owning Bitcoin.

We have had zero interest rate policies for the last 5 years since the financial crisis. People have lost out to inflation by keeping their money in the bank.

With all the madness going on in the world, it is hard to know what tomorrow will bring. But what I do know is that Central banks can only devalue their currencies so much before the public loses complete confidence in the system.

The key point being it is only confidence that gives paper money any value.

The current monetary system in place is based upon debt. Money is created through the existance of loans. Which means there is never enough money in supply to pay it off.

It will only take a small country to have a political crisis, or currency devaluation to drive up the price of Bitcoin again.

If people piggy backed on to Bitcoin just to make a quick buck and are now deciding to jump ship, that is fine by me. No problem at all.

We are just getting rid of the weak hands. Bitcoin is money reinvented and all revolutions take time.

The more transparency there is on Bitcoin the faster the adoption will be. People who don't like Bitcoin are typically the ones that do not understand it.

Give it time my friends, we are still growing as a movement. The best is still yet to come.

And that is the very problem, they are holding not spending it as a currency

It is neither undervalued nor overvalued. It's value is precisely what another person is willing to pay you for it. Right now, that is roughly 360.

bitcoin is digital fiat ... where many govts. are seeing it a threat to paper fiat.  so, they are killing it.  if you don't see that, you aren't being honest imo

Thank heaven that I just learnt that bots don't play a role on the various exchanges.

we are in The price drop as was foretasted by majority. Just keep buying.  Bitcoin 2 is in the last stages of development. Then all this manipulation by wall-sharks,managers and bankster will be way much complicated!!! For now just support small local s exchanges make it more diversified.  LArge exchanges are  best for manipulation.

  The price is not the problem it is natural effect by manipulation (shake the tree) on the big exchanges  in my opinion. Big boys are buy when little guys are scared :-)


  I thing we should concentrate on bitcoins only and minimized inflation like effects by supporting all startupcoins any more.

altcoins are/( were) good for development, but best is stay in 21.000.000 unit limit, all benefits of altcoins are coming  into bitcoin2 this will operate on many parallel chains and each with different benefits.
such a fast one .
microtransaction one.
max-secure one. sky is the limit. but the beauty is the is only 21 M unit.  

 multiple- chain system will bring more stability.  (errors stay isolated)


Keep buying  and keep on paper wallets for now, nobody will stop evolution. America is not everything. rest of the world will support it.  This is global wake up call.

 



 

bitcoin2? what am I missing?

It's a a buyers market right now. If China is forcing people to liquidate assets (Bitcoins), then buyers are taking advantage of that and will pay pennies on the dollar because they know that people are desperate and scared to get their money out before it gets forcibly seized. Those with money could potentially make large gains as the market calms to this event, and they cash in on the market's fear. Just look at what happened after the recent crisis, the wealthy purchased under-valued stock and now they are cashing in on that investment.

I want to caution people that this is a different than the crisis in 08, but there are some lessons to be learned, and there is no guarantee that the price will rise. These are nothing more than media related fluctuations IMO.

Buyers have renetered the market ...

Let see if its bull trap ... 340+ is an awesome price for BTC

Is this fear out of our system yet ???

Or should we hold until the 15th

One thing I have learned is that a merket will always zig when u expect it to zag  :P

Just watch for the downward trap...lol

it will snap up. Coiling spring in progress. :D :D :D

The fact that we rely on China to be setting the value is disturbing. It just tells me we'll be in the $150-250 range within days of any certain ban in the region.

Oh look a steady down trend

http://puu.sh/84VJV/3679a209c5.png
http://puu.sh/84Vcz/a4fda77a16.png
http://puu.sh/84Vdm/03c0b024ae.png

The 3 bubbles in order

the trend seems to be reversing, and the trend is due to reverse in May or June.

I don't think it will go below $300ish, but i think it may have a few more dips in the coming weeks before it will blast of to new highs.

A long, slow slide is just what Bitcoin needed.  I welcome a "significant loss of confidence in the system itself".  If Bitcoin can be easily killed by such a loss of confidence then it would be better for us to learn this now rather than later.  If it survives (as it did in late 2011) then it (and cryptocurrency in general) earns another stripe.

What kind of bullshit chart is this where the vertical axis numbers aren't uniform ?  It goes from 100 to 140 to 200 to 280 with same vertical space....this only distorts things, it does not give a clear picture of price action.
And then you're gonna use it to draw a trend line?  I'm very bullish on BTC long term but get out of here with this crap.

It's called a logarithmic chart

Sorry?

Bullish, lol...

Logarithmic chart...it's a joke.  Major distortion of real price action.

Called it.  :D

LOL how is it a distortion?

Watch us go to a new ATH by end of July 2014.

$5000 by end of this year.

 :D

How is it a distortion?  Because you're not seeing price vs time!  ...which
is the whole point of a freaking price chart.  Am I taking crazy pills?

Here is an actual price vs time chart.   Obviously this chart gives
you much clearer visual data about what the price did over time --
you can clearly see the big spike up to 1200, a pullback, consolidation
into the 800s, another sell off, etc.  It's much less clear on the log
chart (literally distorted via compression).

https://i.imgur.com/Z6KluF9.jpg?1

No

The price is dropping because China is slowly pulling out.

There is no magic, mystery, or secret code that your magical charts can reveal to us about the minds of the people holding bitcoin.

There are solid, logical reasons for each and every price change. 

QFT.  I lmao when I see people talking about moving average crossovers on a bitcoin chart.

Recent dip wasn t because of chinas panic selling... just saying

Actually china were buying while we were panic selling because of them. They must have had a good laugh

There are lots of bitcoins flowing towards China on the fiatleak.

Even many people who prefer the log chart don't understand the purpose of a log chart.

The purpose is to give equal distances to equal percentages, rather than equal quantities. This is because gains and losses in investments are typically expressed in terms of percentages.

Think about it. Is the price difference between $1 and $10 really the same as the difference between $100 and $109? Anyone experiencing the first price jump (or crash) will realize much larger gains (or losses) than anyone experiencing the second. A better analogous range would be $100 to $1000, to reflect the same gains on investment as in the first range. A log chart will show $1, $10, $100, and $1000 equally spaced to depict this.

A side effect of the log chart is that exponential growth appears in a straight line. But that is not the only use a log chart has, and it may arguably be a more useful scale for all investments, even when no exponential growth is present.

If you bought $1000 at $10 and held to $100, you made $9000.
If you bought at $100 and held to $1000, you made $9000.

That's why log charts matter. Saying you view log charts as a distortion is like saying that AAPL is more expensive than FB.

The short-term trend is up now.  :)
Also long-term is up...

I hear what you guys are saying bout the log chart.... Maybe it's not complete crap if some people like it but I still think the traditional candlestick chart is king.

I would disagree.. this is the first time over the last 5 dips the price went back to it's start..  IMO we have found the floor.  Before it was like 1200 drop to 700, rise and steady at 900.  Then 900 to 600 steady at 700, now it droped 450, down to 350 steading out at 430.. 

I peed myself laughing.

I can't remember why I added you to my ignore list but I've decided to unblock you for my entertainment.

Or maybe we dip below $400 again today..  Come on hit my buy of $300

Whatever.

I know several professional traders, and none of them use charts like that for the exact reasons I posted.  I also trade myself, I'm profitable, and I know a good deal about charting, technical analysis, and price action.

Now, if you know something about the matter, then go ahead and enlighten us.  Otherwise STFU and stop acting like a jackass. 

If you are going to speculate on crypto I suggest you study some elementary algebra. A straight line with slope m on a base-N log plot is a exponential curve defined by N^m on a linear plot.

Bitcoin adoption (and price) history fits an exponential curve much better than a linear one, so it makes sense to plot it that way.

Zero soon,

http://s3.postimg.org/y8y4atv7n/chart.jpg (http://postimage.org/)
image upload (http://postimage.org/)

You have to draw the lines by hand, and make the illustration of price plummeting in the next 7d, and it has to be done in ms paint with thick red wiggly pencil line.
Please read similar threads and see how the pro trolls are doing it, you fucking amateur.

@igorr: You have such a fair, balanced and non-biased view of Bitcoin (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=124886;sa=showPosts) that we should all listen to you and panic sell right now!

Really need to start banning some of these top-drawer morons like igorr

I wonder what these peoples like fonzie,igor and the others purpose is...

 :D

Given your signature, you must be quite nostalgic of the Good Ol' Soviet Union days.

Of course, even during the Perestroika I don't think Bitcoin would have been allowed ;)

PS: I save you the In Soviet Russia... joke, I don't think you would get it anyway (I would even grant you that most of them actually suck)

Just check Ukraine.  ;)

Ah yes, I remember now.

Blocked.

None of them?


Source: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/logarithmicscale.asp

What you're forgetting is that downward trends do not last forever. The market always swings from downward to upward to downward, etc. The fact that is has been downward for a while means the market is strongly due for an upward trend. The longer it stays downward, the more overdue it is for upward trends.

I think the chart sites I use are broken...they've been in the 420s all weekend. I'm assuming the stoners have control of the ball and are baking before this coming week's strenuous activities in the bitcoin market?  8)

Some use tic based charts or even Renko etc...first I've heard of log, always learning something new.  Perhaps cause we mostly trade currencies or commodities, changes happen in smaller increments and smaller tf

Perhaps you're just full of shit and now you embarrassed yourself.

I can confirm my Bitfinex account was hacked because of that bug. Probably not just mine.

Currencies and commodities, also fixed income, have no organic growth, so log scales  are irrelevant.  Mature equities likewise. early stage growth stocks  are more like bitcoin.

Hahah...ok yes I have some egg on my face cause I never seen logs
but that's ok.  I never claimed omniscience.  Like I said, the traders
I know mostly use normal sticks.  

I still think the chart I posted gives a way more unbiased, accurate
picture of what price has actually done over the past 2 years.

+1

Coming close to the recent low is normal.
This is a perfect time to buy BTC, right now.